ES Trading for 10/15 thru 10/19 2007

[Dogpile]

This thread is for discussing the major financial futures markets for the week. ES is the focus with NQ/YM/ER2 also watched closely.

We have a selling tail above the old all-time, creating a a resistance zone 1579-81. We have some likely support from Fridays low near 1563.75.

We balanced at 1570.00 on Friday, with a low-ADX 15-min Bollinger Band Squeeze type of set-up.

2 potential types of plays I see here:

Go long should we get strong upward momentum off opening price.
Wait for the first bull/bear flag type of pullback following a strong impulse move.

[Dogpile]

got a nice bear flag after strong momentum push lower.

Market then ran > 10 pts below 1570.00 pivot down to 1556.75.

1557.50 to 1558.00 was a very high volume area from 10/1 to 10/2 (those were daily PVP levels) so this made for some support.

[OAC]

If last Thursday's sell off was wave 1 or wave A and given today's impulse wave down, this could be either wave 3 or wave C which has the potential to become quite extended.

[OAC]

If I may add. Given the panicky type of selling last Thursday, I would'nt be surprised to see a five wave down, which may become either a Wave A or Wave 1 of a higher degree.

[OAC]

My apology to Dogpile. I understand this is a thread about Market Profile. I am not trying to turn it into a thread about Elliott Waves. As Dalton has said in one of his books that some days you have to throw everything out of the window. I brought it up because it may be the weapon of choice , at least for the near future.

[Dogpile]

don't apologize, elliott wave does work enough to be useful. Not ruling that out by any means.

that said, 1553.00 appears to have some validity to it. would look for better ABC type of correction up and then maybe a short-scalp -- but day might be over in terms of the fun.

[Dogpile]

Here is a look at the fight if you are to initiate a new short down here. Not saying that is what you are doing, just pointing out the problems in shorting in general at this level. I would almost expect a test up at this point and can short higher for a play back to test 1553.00 area.

http://bp0.blogger.com/_5h-SWVGx6Ms/...thru+10-15.png

[OAC]

That is an interesting-looking chart. Is that a spreadsheet or came from a piece of software ?

[OAC]

Looking at today's action , I was anticipating a AB=CD Gartley type of formation from last thursday's high. But on both ES and SPY charts, the CD leg is not quite the length of AB yet. Does this mean we may have another down leg coming ?

[OAC]

Ok, Dogpile must be out sick today. We now appear to be coiling around the VWAP, and the squeeze indicator also seem to be in effect. So expect a directional move soon.