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Taylor Trading Technique

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Very difficult method, works on paper trading but in real time it did not work for me, I tested it for several weeks on paper and the results were great but when I applied the method with real money, I immediately lost about $1000 in just a few days. I would honestly not recommend this method unless you have taken the time to thoroughly test it on paper and have enough confidence that it will work for you in real time trading. Or perhaps you could just use it as a timing method, to determine the direction of the market, that is to find out what day is a Sell day or a Buy day, then use some type of simple crossover moving average system, like Bolinger bands to refine your entry price. But simple relying on the Taylor method 100% could prove to be a disaster. I honestly studied and tested this method over several months, I kept and maintained a book and logged all the trades on a daily basis, but strangely enough once I decided to use it real time it failed miserable.

Maybe other have had better luck with it than I have. But I have since put the book back on the shelf and have no plans to open it again in the near future.

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hi mitsubishi, Good hearing from you and I hope all is well with you and your family. Well believe it or not but I am just using some basic moving average indicators along with chart pattern recognition. Al Brooks has written several excellent books on price action, just do a google search, simple having a sound knowledge of chart pattern is all you need to make money trading the markets and I found this approach to be reliable when used in conjunction with a simple moving average indicators. Taylor's idea is sound but perhaps todays market is a lot different from the market that Taylor traded back in the 1950's.

richbois Has done extensive work with the Taylor method and he is also a vendor, I have a lot of respect for the work he has done and have read and learned a lot from what he discussed in his thread on this site and on My PIvots, perhaps he can share with us his experience, but I would really love to hear from anyone who is using this method to trade real money that has had success, its quite different from paper trading where there is no pressure to make a decision

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Hi GannTrader,

Perhaps go back to "Beyond Taylor"

Have a look at Patucas methology

Start at post 595

Pay attention to post 612 .... and 771.

I accept Patuca rephases. He changes the SELL days to something else:)

 

And he made money.

 

I would love to see somebody else take up the challange.

kind regards

bobc

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hi mitsubishi, Actually I never stop trading, I just stop using the Taylor method after my very disappointing experience, so I had nothing else to share. with the group since I was no longer using it. I am a day trader, I trade primarily the Emini SP , the Taylor method just does not fit my style of trading. Its probably useful for someone that position trades but I am flat all my position before closing.

bobcollett I will check out page 595 as you suggested, thanks

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I was asked by PM why I suspended the ~4.5 day ‘book’. Don’t have time to post a good solid explanation, but here are some references and links in case you are interested.

 

 

 

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Last edited by tradingwizzard; 11-06-2013 at 10:38AM.

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Given that zdo is not a vendor,why the hell does wiz keep deleting links?

 

Mits,

 

to be honest, after the first incident Twiz has deleted no links... he just told me not to post anymore.

 

 

Only the first

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Last edited by tradingwizzard; 11-whenever 2013 at sometimePM.

 

is genuine.

 

All those following are 'civil disobedience' to policy... not him personally... at least I hope I'm dealing with policy... and not him and his apparent inability to distinguish btwn references and spammy trash links

 

zdo

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Given that zdo is not a vendor,why the hell does wiz keep deleting links?

 

That’s right, peeps, I am definitely not a vendor. I endorse no products up here on TL – except occasionally I do give TS a plug as an adequate automation ‘prototyping’ environment. When I post a link, it’s not to promote the authors’ services. When I post a link it is either as a citation / reference or it is to share a point of view --- usually an alternative to the ‘current DOMINATING paradigm’ point of view …and he or she has said it better than I could quickly compose into a post (or ,according to Suntrust, say at all ;) ). Even if it’s ten freakin links stacked up, it’s is not in disrespect of the site. … Dear moderators - you need to be careful you don’t squash what little ‘neurodiversity’ that still arises on TL… god knows us users do a good enuf job at that…

 

 

Underlying this civil disobedience is another point - in each era, yes you can ‘just trade an edge’ – but to really excel you must also find a key ‘leading ‘ component to the times at hand…

Look at Livermore in the context of the era he performed… if he were he performing from say 2007 to now he would not be able to thrive as a ‘great bear’ (or whatever his nickname was).

Richard Dennis tuned to a certain time in the ags… his methods do not thrive outside that time.

The investing methods of the wizard of omaha will not thrive going forward… he tuned to and lead only in a certain ‘money’ environment that will not persist.

Many other examples abound --- most of them are 'pimco' bland... still...

 

Most traders today are caught in a great nominal trap… and, unfortunately, Elliott Wavers suffer to a greater extent than many other ways of ‘analysis’ in this nominal trap …

 

[References REMOVED]

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Last pre-crime-d by tradingwizzard; 11-06-2013 at 03:18PM.

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Wiz is to moderating what hacksaws and leeches were to surgery once upon a time.And I think there's an EW link in that statement somewhere...

 

Did you know that wiz used to be an actor?Yes he used to be the one inside the black Dalek (very prestigious and rare colour for a Dalek) His greatest moment came when he announced "you will be exterminated!" before being shoved down an empty lift shaft.I remember catching a glimpse of his @### (edited- no product promoting please) training shoes and thinking ah,that's why that Dalek moved slightly quicker than all the others.

Did you know Daleks conquered the outer regions of the Andromeda nebular in Elliott wave patterns? The last planet to be exterminated in that region was exactly 1.618 (million) light years from Roswell

 

Daleks,like markets haven't changed much through the years.There's still a high D and a low D and the range (population of daleks) is basically unchanged no matter how many times you kill them.Volatility tends to rise when Davros is upset but basically Daleks,like moderators are a very predictable species.....post accordingly...or not...it's your account.

 

Dang mits, you are being awful hard on Twiz.

He is in a thankless position.

This link (unless he edits it out :rofl: ) sums up his plight

I like Monkeys. A little too much perhaps

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Dang mits, you are being awful hard on Twiz.

He is in a thankless position.

This link (unless he edits it out :rofl: ) sums up his plight

I like Monkeys. A little too much perhaps

 

I read the " I like Monkeys" story and do recognize that I alone am responsible for my actions, but I do feel a need or a sense of a need to blame you for making me completely waste unrecoverable time.

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I read the " I like Monkeys" story and do recognize that I alone am responsible for my actions, but I do feel a need or a sense of a need to blame you for making me completely waste unrecoverable time.

 

MM,

Even though I prefer your precious time is never wasted - if you walked into it, I can offer no apologies…

…(albeit public), that post was a note clearly addressed to Mits and it was clearly about the situation Twiz is in and Mits’ treatment of Twiz.

 

Considering that most of my posts are intended for a very small audience rather than ‘the large one’, one option is to consider putting me on ignore. I’m rarely attempting to add broad value to the site... beyond occasionally sincerely trying to keep a topic on topic...

…add to that that my constructs of economics, etc are at considerable variance from the dominant mainstream economic, etc. paradigms

…add to that that my communication skills suck… and that trading offers me an easy perennial dodge to developing them to the levels of quality that most work requires...

 

speaking of value…

members (and owners) need to acknowledge that the ‘good stuff’ is never going to be laid up in posts. The vendors provide only so much before requiring payment. And non vendors, like myself, for the most part wouldn’t ‘provide’ even if you did pay

… Basically, trading forums never provide answers to the ‘great’ trading questions.

The quality of the replies is in inverse relationship to the quality of the queries… yada yada….

To be anti – anti ‘vendor’, or anti ‘non-sharers’, or anti ‘stupid’ , or anti…etc. - is for the most part a waste of personal energy… to complain or even wish that a broadly applied collegial attitude by all members would make for ‘answers’ or worthwhile reading is also, for the most part, a waste of personal energy…

It's a worthy thought experiment to ask if a digital currency could also act as a reserve currency.

 

Hoping you didn’t bother to read this,

 

Taylor be rolln over in his grave...

 

zdo

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MM,

Even though I prefer your precious time is never wasted - if you walked into it, I can offer no apologies…

…(albeit public), that post was a note clearly addressed to Mits and it was clearly about the situation Twiz is in and Mits’ treatment of Twiz.

 

Considering that most of my posts are intended for a very small audience rather than ‘the large one’, one option is to consider putting me on ignore.

 

If you had really meant it for mits only, then you would have PM'd him.

 

I am not able to put you on ignore, because then I wouldn't be able to know what you are going to say next.

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If you had really meant it for mits only, then you would have PM'd him.

 

 

'addressed' to ... not meant for only

I rarely speak PM... open conversations... and if other peeps 'listen'...

 

I am not able to put you on ignore, because then I wouldn't be able to know what you are going to say next.

 

ain't dat a bitch? I'm in the same dam bind with you too ;):)

 

ya'll have a great weekend.

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Hi guys,

 

This thread amazing, reading WHY' posts awesome. I keep reading it but not finish yet. I trading gold according to TTT but recently Larry Williams calling for short SP500 on last Wednesday so i eager to trade SP500 now. I respect his way trading but seems not suitable for my style. Now I stick to TTT and glad when Larry answered me that he valued TTT much as well.

 

About LBR, she good at explaining Taylor but she applied more Toby Crabel who I will read his stuff soon.Toby compensated very well to Taylor. Also ROC2 of Linda taken from Toby

 

On the last page of TTT, Linda had some words and she said she followed 4 role models: Larry, Taylor, Toby and Bob Buran. The last one i never heard of but I will find out soon after grasping all ideas from the rest of 3

 

Good luck

Edited by Jeffreyvnlk
grammar

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Tony Crabel book is a must read, "Day Trading with short term price patterns and opening range breakout" Linda Bradford Raschke also wrote a excellent book, "Street Smarts: High Probability Short-Term Trading Strategies ", read these 2 books and they will improve your trading

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Tony Crabel book is a must read, "Day Trading with short term price patterns and opening range breakout" Linda Bradford Raschke also wrote a excellent book, "Street Smarts: High Probability Short-Term Trading Strategies ", read these 2 books and they will improve your trading

 

Actually I know TTT from Street Smart. Toby book already on my bed but hesitated to reading because his stuff as hard as Taylor's

 

This is my pic of gold from TTT with frequencies

TTT.png.7d8442689d53159f91ef0d99685a0255.png

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According to my marking, today all the sell days for oil, gold and SP500:

- Oil expected BV today then rally according to Larry (another techinquie not realting to TTT at all). Also by Linda teaching we can see a coil and NR7

- Gold already gets BV in Asia today, expected deep down before rally

- Sp500 just watching the close. Would short sales tomorrow. R just recovered 2/3 of D

 

TTT focused on BV

Edited by Jeffreyvnlk

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The formula used for the Taylor rule looks like this:

 

 

i= r* + pi + 0.5 (pi-pi*) + 0.5 ( y-y*).

Where:

 

i = nominal fed funds rate

r* = real federal funds rate (usually 2%)

pi = rate of inflation

p* = target inflation rate

Y = logarithm of real output

y* = logarithm of potential output

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The formula used for the Taylor rule looks like this:

 

 

i= r* + pi + 0.5 (pi-pi*) + 0.5 ( y-y*).

Where:

 

i = nominal fed funds rate

r* = real federal funds rate (usually 2%)

pi = rate of inflation

p* = target inflation rate

Y = logarithm of real output

y* = logarithm of potential output

 

Hi tradelab,

Are you serious or is this your way of saying TTT is hogwash?:(:(

If the former , please explain how you worked this out?:confused::confused::confused:

Please add some real numbers.Oil markets perhaps!!;)

regards

bobc

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Hi tradelab,

Are you serious or is this your way of saying TTT is hogwash?:(:(

If the former , please explain how you worked this out?:confused::confused::confused:

Please add some real numbers.Oil markets perhaps!!;)

regards

bobc

 

What's really sad is that TL members posted almost 1190 posts working on this topic and the whole time it could have been handled with just that one formula ... thx o3!

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Hi everyone. 

Excellent thread. Thanks to everyone who has contributed, it has been a massive help in learning to understand the TTT method.

Is anyone still using pure Taylor method? I see some people have their own interpretation of Taylor's method but I would like to understand pure Taylor before deviating. 

I have gone through the whole thread I feel I am understanding the core concepts to the method but am having a little trouble getting the entries and exits right. I am using just a standard online broker I have some questions that if someone could help answer would be great.

1) without having access to time & sales data ("the tape") how would you monitor price action for entries at or around previous highs & lows? Are there certain indicators like volume that could be used?

2) Can the method be used with a spread bet account and be profitable is it better for cfd/share dealing? 

3) From what I understand Taylor was more concerned with daily data but what intra day charts would be useful?

I have only been studying TTT for about the last month or so and I haven't traded it live yet so just using a demo. Im based in the UK so will mainly be looking to trade stocks on LSE. I haven't got much experience in trading live. Would really appreciate any input. There will probably be more question so just hope we could maybe get this thread up and running again. 

Thanks in advance for your time 

 

Farridin

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On 06/02/2015 at 11:24 AM, tradelab03 said:

The formula used for the Taylor rule looks like this:

 

 

i= r* + pi + 0.5 (pi-pi*) + 0.5 ( y-y*).

Where:

 

i = nominal fed funds rate

r* = real federal funds rate (usually 2%)

pi = rate of inflation

p* = target inflation rate

Y = logarithm of real output

y* = logarithm of potential output

This is JOHN TAYLOR not George Douglass Taylor so this something completely different?

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12 hours ago, FarridinK said:

Hi everyone. 

Excellent thread. Thanks to everyone who has contributed, it has been a massive help in learning to understand the TTT method.

Is anyone still using pure Taylor method? I see some people have their own interpretation of Taylor's method but I would like to understand pure Taylor before deviating. 

I have gone through the whole thread I feel I am understanding the core concepts to the method but am having a little trouble getting the entries and exits right. I am using just a standard online broker I have some questions that if someone could help answer would be great.

1) without having access to time & sales data ("the tape") how would you monitor price action for entries at or around previous highs & lows? Are there certain indicators like volume that could be used?

2) Can the method be used with a spread bet account and be profitable is it better for cfd/share dealing? 

3) From what I understand Taylor was more concerned with daily data but what intra day charts would be useful?

I have only been studying TTT for about the last month or so and I haven't traded it live yet so just using a demo. Im based in the UK so will mainly be looking to trade stocks on LSE. I haven't got much experience in trading live. Would really appreciate any input. There will probably be more question so just hope we could maybe get this thread up and running again. 

Thanks in advance for your time 

 

Farridin

I am probably to only Pure TTT guy out there. After 10 years of doing Taylor  i still dont beleive in changing the cycles when it dont suit you. Exact Entries and Exit are not really part of the Taylor method. This method gives you guide lines. My system has improved over the years and added Ranges and Standard Deviations to the basic method. 

Taylor used daily date to calculate his ranges and targets for the next day. Believe it of not it still works after 70 years. The intraday data is used for entry and exit . Yes it is not evident but that comes with experience. I find that trading stocks with TTT is very hard, Futures are easier. I guess you could use Future levels to trade CFD's   but i havent tried thatInsert other media

Richard   TaylortradingTechnique.com

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42 minutes ago, richbois said:

I am probably to only Pure TTT guy out there. After 10 years of doing Taylor  i still dont beleive in changing the cycles when it dont suit you. Exact Entries and Exit are not really part of the Taylor method. This method gives you guide lines. My system has improved over the years and added Ranges and Standard Deviations to the basic method. 

Taylor used daily date to calculate his ranges and targets for the next day. Believe it of not it still works after 70 years. The intraday data is used for entry and exit . Yes it is not evident but that comes with experience. I find that trading stocks with TTT is very hard, Futures are easier. I guess you could use Future levels to trade CFD's   but i havent tried thatInsert other media

Richard   TaylortradingTechnique.com

Hi Rich,

Thank you for your reply. 

Have you been trading pure Taylor all that time or do you use it along side other methods? 

So do you use time & sales data as Taylor mentioned with regards to looking for support buying etc?

Please could you explain how he used the previous days ranges for targets? I think I understand that on a buy day you would use the ss low to look for support for entries and the buy day high is your sell day objective, SS you use the sell day high to look for resistance for entries and the ss day low as possible exit for you ss trade. Im still trying to figure out how to use the decline and rally columns to gauge future movements as there doesn't seem to be any similar price movements. Im keep a book on 3 stocks right not not to trade live but just for educational purpose. Would you recommend trying TTT in the Futures Market instead? 

Also if price gaps down on open on SS day, trades down all day and rallies up a little from towards the end of the day to maybe half the days range, with the high of the day as the open price would that be low made 1st or high 1st? 

By the way working my way through my pivots. Hopefully will pick up some more helpful tips. 

Thanks again for your time.

 

Farridin

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    • Date : 1st December 2021. Market Update – December 1 – Taper gets a boost & Transitory gets “retired”. Powell “retires” Transitory in light of Omicron & surprisingly suggests faster taper – Stocks tank, Dollar& Yields rise on faster tightening expectations.   USD (USDIndex 95.90) back down from leap to 96.60 on Powell testimony. Saw fresh wave of risk aversion as Treasuries sold off, yields spiked (particularly the 2yr) , Stocks fell significantly with USA100 down over -2.4% (APPL bucked the trend +3.16%) USA500 -1.90% (-88pts) 4567 & USA30 off 652 pts or -1.86%. Consumer confidence saw a slump in the headline, and a rise to a 13-year high in the inflation component. The Chicago PMI fell to 61.8. Home prices increased to fresh record peaks. US Yields 10-year rates were down over 7 bps to 1.41% before closing at 1.443% before recovring to 1.468% now. Asian Markets – Equities – Topix and Nikkei are currently up 0.4%, the Hang Seng bounced 1.1% and the CSI 300 is up 0.1%. The ASX, which outperformed yesterday, dropped back -0.3%. Data over night – Japan’s manufacturing PMI came in stronger than expected and while China’s private PMI reading signalled stagnation at 49.9, that was compensated somewhat by the stronger than expected official manufacturing PMI released yesterday. AUD GDP was not as bad as expected -1.9% vs -2.7% & 0.7% last time. USOil – continues under pressure, down to $64.08 (14-week lows) yesterday – recovered to test $68.00 today – expectations continue to grow that OPEC+, will put on hold plans to add 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) of supply in January at their meeting tomorrow. Gold finally some intra-day volatility – Powell surprise spiked to $1808 – before testing $1770 with a couple of hours, back to $1788 now. FX markets – Yen rallied USDJPY dipped to 112.50, back to 113.40 now, EURUSD now 1.1326 & Cable steadied to 1.3300-1.3330. European Open – December 10-yr Bund future down -11 ticks at 172.26, slightly outperforming versus Treasury futures. Central bankers may be getting more nervous about inflation outlook, but Omicron clearly is clouding over growth outlook & in Europe at least that will boost the arguments of the cautious camp at the central banks. US yields remain firmly below the levels seen before the new virus variant hit the headlines & sentiment is likely to remain jittery, even if stocks are set to back up from yesterday’s lows, with DAX & FTSE 100 future posting gains of 0.9% and 0.7% respectively & a 1.4% jump in the NASDAQ leading US futures higher. Data releases today kicked off with a big miss for German Retail sales (-0.3% vs 1.0%), higher UK house prices & firmer CPI from CHF. Today – PMIs (EZ & UK),US Markit Final Manufacturing PMIs, US ADP and ISM Manufacturing PMI, JTC and OPEC meetings, BoE’s Bailey and Fed’s Powell & Yellen testify. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.60%) Risk-sensitive currencies remain volatile, from a slide to 76.65 yesterday, today a rally to 77.80. Currently MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram over 0 and rising, RSI dipping from 70.00 at 58, Stochastic remain OB. H1 ATR 0.172, Daily 0.84. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date : 30th November 2021. Market Update – November 30– Stocks at ups & downs. Omicron remains in focus and warnings that it will leave current vaccines far less effective and that it will take time to modify and produce new ones has seen markets adjusting growth forecasts and central bank projections.   USD (USDIndex 96.00 up from 95.92 low) saw a fresh wave of risk aversion as Treasuries sold off, but cautiously with only a modest back up in yields, & Stocks bounced significantly with the USA100 jumping over 2% intraday with IT a big winner. It closed with a 1.88% gain, with the USA500 1.3% firmer, and the USA30 up 0.68%. Wall Street stocks closed higher as investors were hopeful that the Omicron coronavirus variant would not lead to lockdowns after reassurance from US President Joe Biden. Moderna’s CEO told the FT that existing vaccines will be less effective and that it may take months before modified vaccines are available at scale. #Moderna +12.73% yesterday. US Yields 10- and 30-year rates were up just over 3 bps to 1.51% and 1.859%, respectively, with the 2-year 1bps higher at 0.508% The 10-year is currently corrected -3.9 bp to 1.46%, but it is still in negative territory, at -1.05% on Tuesday, keeping gold’s opportunity cost low. Equities – Topix and Nikkei are down -1.0% and -1.6% respectively, Hang Seng lost -2.3%, the CSI 300 -0.6%, while the ASX outperformed with a modest gain of 0.2%. USOil – down by 2%, drifted to $66.73 – after FT cast doubt on the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines against the Omicron – expectations are growing that OPEC+, will put on hold plans to add 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) of supply in January. Gold spiked to $1795 – World Health Organization said on Monday carried a very high risk of infection surges. #TWTR was UP 12% pre-market on news Dorsey was leaving as CEO – it closed DOWN 2.74%. The USA100 rose+1.88%. FX markets – Yen rallied (a new flight to safety), Aussie and kiwi slide. USDJPY at 112.94, EURUSD now 1.1326 & Cable steadied to 1.3300-1.3330. European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is up 46 ticks, Treasury futures are outperforming and in cash markets the US 10-year rate has corrected -3.9 bp to 1.46% amid a fresh wave of risk aversion. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -1.5% and -1.1% respectively, while a -1.1% drop in the Dow Jones is leading US futures lower. In FX markets both EUR and GBP gained against the Dollar. EGB yields had moved higher against the background of improving risk appetite and a jump in German inflation yesterday, but while Eurozone HICP today is likely to exceed forecasts, central bankers have already been out in force to play down the importance of the number for the central bank outlook and rate expectations. Virus developments will also help to take the sting out of the number. Today – German labour market data, EU Inflation, Canadian GDP and US Consumer confidence are due today. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen are due to testify before the US Senate Banking Committee at 15:00 GMT. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.68%) Risk-sensitive currencies slid and safe havens gained. AUDJPY dropped to 80 lows (S2). Currently MAs point rightwards, MACD signal line & histogram below 0, RSI rising above 30 but Stochastic OS. Hence a mixed picture intraday. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date : 29th November 2021. Market Update – November 29 – Omicron dominates sentiment. USD (USDIndex 96.30) recovers from Fridays slump (95.98), Stocks lost over –2.2% in thin half-day trading, Oil FUTS lost –13%, Gold slumped and Yields tanked (10-yr 1.482%) on a safe haven (JPY & CHF bid) risk off day. (and a strange carry trade bid for EUR). Weekend news, as Countries block flights and tighten restricts, but first Omicron cases in SA appear mild and hospitalizations have not spiked, has seen a bounce in sentiment and Asian markets. Pfizer suggested it would take 100 days to adapt new vaccine, if required. US Yields 10yr trades up 5.1 bp at 1.52%, after Friday’s slump. Equities – tanked in thin and short day on Friday USA500 -106.84 (-2.27%) at 45941 – USA500.F trades higher at 4639. USOil – collapsed to $67.08 – now up nearly $4 at $71.00. OPEC+ have delayed this weeks meeting by 2 days & likely to delay planned January production increases. Gold spiked under $1780, has bounced to $1795 but struggles to recoup $1800   FX markets – EURUSD now 1.1270, after a +125pip rally on Friday, USDJPY now 113.36, from 115.50 to 113.00 on Friday & Cable back to 1.3325. Overnight – JPY Retail Sales recover but miss expectations (0.9% vs 1.2% & -0.5% last time). European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is down -27 ticks, US futures are also in the red & the US 10-year rate is up 5.1 bp at 1.52%. Stock markets remained under pressure during the Asian part of the session, but DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 1.2% and 1.3% respectively and a 1.2% rise in the NASDAQ is leading US futures higher. A part reversal of Friday’s flows then as virus developments remain in focus. Travel restrictions are making a come back and the services sector in particular is facing fresh pain, but as Lagarde suggested over the weekend, the impact of Omicron is unlikely to throw economies back to the situation at the start of the pandemic, meaning the overall situation has not really changed. We continue to see the ECB on course to end PEPP purchases on time in March next year, although developments will add to the arguments of those who want to keep the flexibility on the distribution of asset purchases at least for future emergencies. The BoE meanwhile may be postponing the planned rate hike into next year. Today – German regional and national CPIs, Eurozone Consumer Confidence (final), US Pending Home Sales, ECB’s de Guindos, Schnabel, Lagarde, Fed’s Williams, Powell. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADCHF (1.00%) The risk-off collapse on Friday 0.7400-0.7200 has recovered to 0.7280. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram rising but still below 0 line, RSI 53.80 & rising H1 ATR 0.0018, Daily ATR 0.0062. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Forex Trading is considered to be only profitable, if you have practice Forex Trading, till you have mastered the skills and knowledge to survive in the Forex Market.
    • Though there are many videos available online on Youtube, you cannot actually learn through them, if you don't practice in the Forex Real Market.
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