[atto]

Originally Posted by Susana »

Looks like a falling knife with zero buying interest.

I disagree, there's actually quite a lot (check the volume at price I threw on). There's also a good deal of selling interest, and the sellers are still stronger (hence the continued downtrend). We'll see how it pans out.

[Susana]

Trying to catch a bottom in a bear market is one of the hardest calls in trading. Until Oil can go back into convincing last resistance to become support I'm staying out of the long side, much safer to just short last support, chances are it will then be resistance.

Regarding volume, for every buyer there is a seller.

[Head2k]

Originally Posted by Susana »

Regarding volume, for every buyer there is a seller.

Actually, I believe this is exactly what atto is trying to tell you. The volume here is a sign of significant buying interest. Sure, selling interest is there, too. But the fact that buyers became interested on such scale and are absorbing on such scale is worth noticing and one should watch closely what happens next.
Regarding to catching the falling knife, nobody here wrote that one should buy right now and nobody wrote that one should try to pick the exact bottom.

[Susana]

Originally Posted by Head2k »

Actually, I believe this is exactly what atto is trying to tell you. The volume here is a sign of significant buying interest. Sure, selling interest is there, too. But the fact that buyers became interested on such scale and are absorbing on such scale is worth noticing and one should watch closely what happens next.
Regarding to catching the falling knife, nobody here wrote that one should buy right now and nobody wrote that one should try to pick the exact bottom.

I understand about exhaustive volume, but without subsequent price action, volume it's unreadable at this point.

[atto]

Exactly Head2k. I wouldn't be buying here (I don't try to catch exact tops and bottoms), but considering our hypothetical short, this is an area of note. Yes, sellers are still stronger; however, since it takes buyers (who are trading here) to form a reversal, we'll want to watch carefully.

[DbPhoenix]

No one is asking you to go long, Susana, nor is anyone suggesting that you short. You said that there was no buying interest. Clearly there is or volume would not be so high. It is also clear that selling pressure is greater than buying pressure or else price would not be falling.

And while for every buyer there may be a seller (assuming a completed transaction), buying pressure is not always equal to selling pressure. If it were, price would never move. Once you understand that, volume will no longer be "unreadable".

[Susana]

I understand so what's interesting about this particular situation to you guys, that volume increased dramatically and that we went from an imbalance state to a potential balanced one? Because aside from that, I can't see much. Perhaps that's all there is and for some reason I'm thinking you guys are suggesting there is something else.

[DbPhoenix]

Originally Posted by Susana »

I understand so what's interesting about this particular situation to you guys, that volume increased dramatically and that we went from an imbalance state to a potential balanced one? Because aside from that, I can't see much. Perhaps that's all there is and for some reason I'm thinking you guys are suggesting there is something else.

Nothing more than what I said in my previous post. Is there anything in particular about Wyckoff's views on volume and on buying and selling pressure that you disagree with?