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AUDUSD Discussions

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Hi,

 

Seeing the increase in posts on various currency pairs, we have decided to start generic threads, this one being for AUDUSD.

 

All items related to AUDUSD should go in here, *unless* there is a specialized topic or question related to AUDUSD.

 

We will err on the side of caution and assume discussions on the pair should be in this thread.

 

I hope this will keep the forums clean, discussions coherent and synchronized.

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AUDUSD - tall blue candle trading way above pivot this morning - what does this mean?

 

Audusd bulls are making quite an impressive footprint this morning. So far we have a tall blue candle already licking at R4 this morning after busting through pivot and R1 thru R3 like they weren't even there. Should we get a close above pivot today, then the bulls have taken back the advantage and we have a temporary bottom at S1.

 

It's important to note though that Audusd has been in a big rectangular consollidation since September which means bulls have established a temporary bottom with a slight advantage within the consollidation. Therefore, should price close above pivot today, we can see recent resistances challenged again but we can't talk about real direction until price closes above or below consollidation on the daily chart.

 

I banked profits on a couple of sells and now I have a profitable buy floating in the market. See chart for pivot, revised targets and rectangular consollidation.

audusdanalysisdaily.thumb.png.df8ea8625faf35adcfc4cc000306fc7c.png

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AUDUSD - is hammer continuation pattern going to cause lift - off?

 

After price completed a hammer continuation pattern on pivot, it has been challenging R1/R2 repeatedly without success. Are the bulls going to bust through this tough resistance or not? Can hammer cause a lift-off towards R3 and beyond?

 

As long as price remains above pivot, the bias is to the upside and the bulls have the advantage which means we will continue to see R1/R2 challenged and attacked. Should bulls bust through this resistance, next one is an even bigger challenge (R3) which is also the top of rectangular consollidation mentioned in previous analyses. So, the most we can still say, is that the bulls currently have the advantage inside a much bigger consollidation. We need a decent break-out above upper trendline of rectangular consollidation before we could speak of a lift-off. See chart below for pivot and relevant targets.

 

I am currently in a buy on vollatility101 which I entered based on tall blue candle mentioned in previous analysis. See trade below.

audusdanalysisdaily.thumb.png.32b3daaec806ff8b4b6d4b89ad147bc8.png

5aa7119b9d187_vollatility101audusdfloatingtrades.png.5a359e1a5ad808feb97e3d07c93eeac4.png

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AUDUSD - has dark cloud re-established upper rectangle line for another push down.

 

Price completed a dark cloud on the upper trend line of the daily rectangular consollidation. The first candle of this pattern closed above the trendline almost reaching R3 but it's important to note that price has to sustain momentum above R4 before it can safely rid itself of the clutches of this rectangle, so eventhough it looked like a potential break-out, it was not yet confirmed as a break-out. Confirmation would come with a close above R4, instead the next candle closed below trendline again completing a dark cloud formation.

 

Pivot has moved to 1.05205 and as long as price remains above this pivot the bulls still have the advantage which means we could see another attack on R2 thru R4. Until we get a close below pivot, dark cloud can only be treated as a retracement in a consollidation with a bullish bias. Should we get a close below pivot, then dark cloud is confirmed and we could see another push down towards S targets. See chart below for pivot and relevant targets.

 

I have tightened my stop on my buys in both the onepipatatime and vollatility101 strategies locking in profits in both and I have also entered a sell based on dark cloud on onepipatime strategy. See trades below:

audusdanalysisdaily.thumb.png.71aadd91c9c6c64462cf58533e91d433.png

5aa711a17e8b3_vollatility101audusdfloatingtrades.png.fbc66b61838a83752d831938c6a2bf83.png

5aa711a1822e2_onepipatatimeaudusdfloatingtrades.png.4de00ab3edf1d6499baf8a369262e42e.png

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I like to play it safe, will only long this pair if it is supported by 9530 with a candle close. If this level is broken, then might consider small shorts to 94 levels.........

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Aud is oversold,,current rates attracts massive investment from oversea,as you can see on recent newspaper in Au

so I dont believe Aud can stay below this level

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Some analysts including Morgan Stanley now forecast the possibility of Aussie reaching parity by year end as yields remain low in both US and Europe. While parity is certain to raise the ire of Australian monetary authorities who may even respond with a rate cut in such a scenario, the Aussie certainly looks strong on a relative basis. It has performed particularly well against the euro and could gain further strength this week if the labor data on Wednesday proves supportive. EUR/AUD flirted with the 1.4500 figure last week in the wake of the ECB announcement and could break that level this week if Australian labor data shows steady job growth.

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The Australian Dollar Takes A Verbal Beating From RBA

The Australian dollar took a big hit this morning tumbling 68 points to trade at 0.9376. A lackluster retail sales report followed a speech by RBA Governor Steven’s which started the downward spiral. If there were any doubts about the Reserve Bank’s discomfort about the stubborn strength of the Australian dollar, Governor Glenn Stevens removed them when he addressed the Australian Conference of Economists on Thursday. The Director was describing the $A as uncomfortably high late last year when the currency was around 91.2 US cents. It hasn’t been using that description lately, even though the $A is higher. Stevens adjusted his language again as the currency retraced some of the fall, he said, adding that while there seemed to be a strong focus on “whether the adjective ‘uncomfortable’ would be put into use once more,” he didn’t regard that as significant. Then he added: “lest there be any uncertainty about this, let me be clear, again, that the exchange rate remains high by historical standards.

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The AUDUSD stays below the 0.9400 level, but it could open to the upside on sunday, because at the end of the session it tried to recover a little bit.

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The AUDUSD stays below the 0.9400 level, but it could open to the upside on sunday, because at the end of the session it tried to recover a little bit.

 

I meant Monday, not sunday.

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Australian Dollar (AUD/USD): There was over a 10% reduction in the total OI taking the total open back down to 113K after 132K last week. For one week only the total OI in the A$ exceed that in the C$ - now it is 31K smaller. Longs did liquidate but there position remains fairly large at 41.4K.

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In a lively Asian and European session trade, cable rally fizzled in the wake of MPC minutes that showed no tilt towards tightening, while Aussie soared to 9450 after hotter than expected CPI data allayed any fears of further RBA rate cuts. So, a test of 2014 hidhs?

aud.thumb.png.1cd9c33f6deb1477f4cf77efdff12ba3.png

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Earlier this week there was an article in Bloomberg, which quoted Goldman who is friendly to the AUDUSD (FXA, UDN UUP). They reported:

Offshore buying that helped push Australia’s 10-year bond yield to its lowest in 13 months and spurred the developed world’s biggest currency gain shows no sign of abating, according to Goldman Sachs Asset Management......

 

Japanese money managers purchased more than 1 trillion yen ($9.8 billion) of Aussie dollar-denominated debt over the five months through May, official data from the Asian nation show. markets and drive down yields.

1_audusd-d1-excel-markets.png.29f87eee4ce8735160af2d10a709060b.png

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The pair remains in strong downtrend as the shift out of the carry trade continues, but it has now become grossly oversold and with its 2.5% yield unlikely to be reduced any further, the Aussie is slowly starting to attract some income investors. The economic situation in Australia remains moribund as demand from China has clearly slowed, but the overall economy is not contracting and that dynamic is likely to keep the RBA in a neutral policy stance for quite some time.

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The Aussie went on a wild ride in early Asian session trade after RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent mentioned the prospect of intervention in a Q&A session after a speech in Sydney. The AUD/USD immediately tumbled more than 60 points as headlines crossed the news wires but the pair quickly stabilized and retraced all of its losses after traders had a chance to fully digest Mr. Kent’s statement.

 

One of the key provisions for such a policy move is that the currency must be at either an extreme over or under valuation. Given the fact that the RBA did not intervene at when AUD/USD was 1.0800 it is unlikely that the central bank would step in at .8800. Thus upon further reflection Mr. Kent’s comments were seen as simply another attempt at jawboning by RBA and Aussie quickly regained its footing.

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Hello Friends,

 

AUDUSD Forex Signal for Fri, 14 Nov 2014

 

Open BUY/LONG AUDUSD at 0.8718

Set Take Profit at 0.8742 / 0.8778 / 0.8814

Set Stop Loss at 0.8670

 

Open SELL/SHORT AUDUSD at 0.8670

Set Take Profit at 0.8646 / 0.8610 / 0.8574

Set Stop Loss at 0.8718

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A reason for the A$ weakness is the strength of the USD. Speculators have aggressively sold the euro, where there are multiple major problems, and the Japanese yen where PM Abe is taking Keynesian economics to the limit. But the third largest short position speculators hold at the CME futures market is in the A$. The COT report issued January 9th showed specs to be short 73.4K contracts of futures and delta adjusted options. The Friday report also showed the USD long has reached new records.

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Now that AUD/USD has fallen below 80 cents and below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2008 to 2012 rally, the next stop for the currency pair should be the 2007 swing low of 0.7675. As long as AUD/USD remains below 0.8050, the downtrend remains intact.

AUDUSD0126153.png.80532311532a37cb6b3ce751779683f6.png

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