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ValueTrader

Stops or Not to Stop....

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ValueTrader.. I've warned about the risks of stops for a long time. I've found that it has taken me some time and work to better my understanding.

 

First, we have to identify the context of the trade. Is it a system trade? Is it a discretionary trade? Is it a day trade? What is the leverage used? What are the exit parameters? Does the margin exist to hold over night?

 

But, let's address the issue for discretionary day traders. For discretionary day traders, I believe stops are very worthwhile and always keep in place a stop when entering any trade. However, what I really focus on is my max risk per day. I don't care if I get stopped out a lot of times or just a few times. I want to know at the end of the day that I'm not going to be down more then $X. When one has an advantage, the cost to capitalize on that advantage is the risk of being wrong.

 

If you don't apply stops then what will tend to happen is the account equity curve will mimic the instrument equity curve. This makes sense. And it is true that most traders fail to outperform the market. It also is easy to see that the type of leverage most day traders use won't be sufficient for taking on the market risk.

 

But, I still believe the key for the day trader is to avoid taking stop losses. Even very tangible edges can easily turn into break even trades when stop losses occur. What I do is I manage my trades to minimize taking stop losses using my skill, specialized software (more to come in future), and tape reading ability. I also think it is important to turn trading into a discrete game for the discretionary trader.. another article forth coming.

 

Moving beyond discretionary day trading... we have other ways of looking at things. For example, one can look at the account as the total risk for a strategy and the annualized returns as a payoff. Risking a 10k account to build it to 500k in a few years WITHOUT using stops makes a certain amount of sense.

 

Stops tend to impart a false sense of security. I mean that if you look at a strategy with a 50% DD but that uses a $200 stop loss. It is tempting to try it because there is a notion that you'll get out before the 50% DD. If the strategy had a 30% DD without stops then the same person might not trade it because they only in their mind had to accept the $200 stop loss..

 

Now.. moving beyond the day time frame, a good trader could probably avoid 70% of stop losses if they could hold.. strategic averaging down etc could probably reduce that to 90%. They have a saying " a bull market lifts all boats". It wont lift your boat if you are stopped out. It is much harder to justify stop losses for the swing trader.

 

Strategically bounding price sounds like it could be a rather effective strategy. A big mistake comes from comparing trading system draw downs to open equity draw downs, imo. I don't think they are comparable. If a trading system loses money, its gone forever. If you hold good companies or indexes then there is a good chance the holder will at least break even.

 

What does this mean? This means that if you can develop a sound method that doesn't use stop losses then while you may not be able to make a lot more profits then you can reduce your risk of losing the entire account.

 

Some caveats.... first general price series are not normally distributed so there is no rule for the market to come back... in general increasing the risk and holding period will result in the equity curve swinging more and more wildly.

 

I think there must be something better then the stop out. I have entertained converting/rolling the futures positions into limited loss positions at the end of the day or hedging. .. For example a spread/option would give one the time for the market to come back while limiting the max loss.

 

If you take small stop losses.. you must be trading a volatile instrument because you'll need catch big winners.. a reduction in volatility will prove very damaging. see my 2 dark swans of stops

 

For the day trader, again I don't think averaging down works. I tend to take size on/off very quickly but I will strategically add to positions underwater. It is very rare. The reason is that basically my leverage ratio is not suitable for that style of trading. To be honest, averaging up doesn't work too well for the futures day trader either..

 

Having said all of this, if you have an edge then and if we accept the market rewards risk in good proportion to that taken then maybe that can make one more comfortable in using stops... again I always use them.

 

... Let me say I'm not too keen on the "s-curve" the author talks about which is a martingale variation. The problem is that you are initially right capture 10 points = $500 but at the end of the curve he's at 31 total or $1550 per point.. The purpose of this sort of approach is to gain better pricing over time and most of all to never put the account of risk.

 

PS: The author of that blog comes off as trying to appear more sophisticated then he is. He's trading a single way only whereas really great traders have mastered far more. I notice a lot of vendors will try to use "confidence" words to try to make them look better.. the most common is calling other traders names like retail traders, Muppet, etc or trying to appear smarter, more sophisticated,etc... what these folks fail to understand is that there are a lot of ways to make money in the market and most don't require being a genius.

 

I chanced upon this rather interesting blog, would be interested to hear other members opinion.

 

Hammer Out! » Stops or not to stop… that is the question.

Edited by Predictor

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It appears from comments in the link that ''he'' is actually she... i believe woman in general have different view on things including trading so what works for them doesn't necessarily work for us.

 

As to OP.

Constant sl most probably isn't the best way how to approach a trade, but it certainly makes things simpler and avoids getting in trouble with making bad, emotional judgements.. As far as i understand - hers idea is not to close position until you think that closing your positions and initiating position in the other direction is a better option. If so ..and if she can pull it off then i would say she is one step ahead.

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PS: The author of that blog comes off as trying to appear more sophisticated then he is. He's trading a single way only whereas really great traders have mastered far more. I notice a lot of vendors will try to use "confidence" words to try to make them look better..[/i]

 

Aren't you doing the same thing with your posts? For example

 

Programs selling...

 

Buy programs triggering

 

lol.. either that or a big trader executed a sell program to take out the longs off 50... nice one

 

LQ providers are short biased today.. institutions long biased... this is just my intuition.. the lq providers put up real volume whereas institutions tend to add limit or go to market at certain zones.. 2 institutions battling it out now.. why does it matter? my take is the 53 seller is a lq provider.. should pull... just trying to slow down the rise in price

 

Same kind of BS Steve sometimes posts. Designed to impress newbies in my opinion.

 

TradeRunner

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TradeRunner,

 

There are some differences in what I've did and that differentiate me from Steve and other vendors here and elsewhere. I wasn't just referring to Steve, either. First, I made real-time calls. I've been one of the few who did that. I also tracked/had an open book on my calls for about 2 years. Again, not something that you'll find other vendors doing. These were audited by the C2 third-party.

 

I'm really surprised that more people didn't take notice. I have, at times, become frustrated with vendors who claim to offer transparency or make big claims but fail to do so.

 

I can guarantee the real-time analysis I've provided here is superior to most trading rooms costing $100's of dollars. I've provided it here for free.. for a few reasons actually. The main reason is that the administrators here have been nice to me but also I feel that it can enhance my performance. But no my posts aren't designed to impress new traders whatsoever. That's not to say they aren't designed to attract a certain audience.. But primarily.. my posts are designed to enhance my own performance. I'm trading real money on all of those calls, btw... For those who take notice, my calls have been spot on, and again I know because I'm trading real money. (Although, I make no claims that one could duplicate it with my calls. They are always going to be delayed as my real money is more important then the call.)

 

To summarize, I'd like to highlight the differences between myself and other vendors:

 

1. I never denigrate other traders or try to boast myself up by calling other traders retailers, muppets, etc... i.e play the confidence game. This is the pattern I noticed and called to attention. It is the pattern of calling others names or trying to make others feel stupid so that they need your products or in some cases I think it is a con game the trader pulls over his own eyes. There is a difference in that and reveling in ones ability.. which I sometimes do when I've earned it. That's the key.. when I've earned it.

2. I've a history of making real time calls. Both calls that were published and made here in real-time.

3. I am much better at explaining myself then some other vendors. I feel it is because I actually have something to say. I explain what I do or make it clear that I don't want to reveal certain information. I feel that overall my communications is much more transparent and readable.

4. I actually trade. Again, something many vendors don't do.

 

As for my insights into the market, it is certainly a creative interpretation but one that helps me.

 

As for the author of that blog, he boasted about his 17% return without even sharing any risk/adjusted performance metrics. Yes, he came off as crass and lacking knowledge.

 

One other thing but also in terms of the articles here.. it is clear that some vendors just want to post any old useless fluff article to get there name up whereas I've always felt that I had something worthwhile to share my articles.

 

You want to know the differences.. there you have it!

Edited by Predictor

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Hi. I'm the author of the blog which started this discussion. I was told about this page from a friend and felt the need to clarify a few things.

 

I'm a she... not a he. :) Andi with an I.. not a Y. I trade professionally for a rather large institutional account.. have been for six years. As the bio on my site suggestions, I run the futures and currency desk for a Swiss family office located in NYC.

 

My use of the words "rookies" or "muppets" is out of fun. If any of you follow me on twitter you would know I put up this page and I talk on twitter entirely out of entertainment. You may also notice from my blogs that I trade very rarely.... thus I have an awful lot of time to twiddle my thumbs, paint my toe nails, talk to folks on twitter and write nonsense on my blog.

 

I'm not selling a product, training people to trade or benefiting in any way whatsoever from readers of my blog or followers on twitter (aside from entertainment value). You'll notice I have no ads on my site like most blogs do, thus I receive no benefit from the traffic.

 

Mr. Predictor.... When have I boasted about returns without talking about risk? Never mind the fact that I'm not boasting about anything... but where on my blog do I glance over risk? That's actually all I've discussed on there. I believe the use of stops is a risky...and quite frankly, stupid way to trade.

 

As for my stats... feel free to ask any of the many followers I have on twitter about them. While i'm not here to prove anything to you or anyone else.. I do take offense to the suggestion that I'm boasting or trying to appear more sophisticated than I am.

 

Regarding your PS statement. I am not trying to appear sophisticated or snotty or as a genius. The blog post about stop came about when I was asked a question by a follower on twitter and I attempted to answer their question as logically and straightforward as possible. Perhaps I could have added... "if what I do doesn't work for you.... do something else."

 

Whether you consider me a "really great trader" or not... I honestly don't care. But keep in mind that many who manage funds, very large accounts or those that have produced considerately superior returns for a number of years... they often have very simple strategies that do not involve mastering multiple ways to trade.

 

"Have a plan and stick to your plan." Mine works.. and works well. If it didn't, I wouldn't be in the position I am today.

 

-- Andi

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Aren't you doing the same thing with your posts? For example

 

-------------------------------------------------

 

I noticed this and I really have to respond....first, its refreshing to see that someone is thinking...even though we don't see eye to eye....its nice to see someone notice what's going on here.

 

Regarding "real time calls"...here is Predictor's most recent "call"

 

taken from Negotiator's "Daytrading the Emini Futures" thread

 

Post 5735

 

"Good short here off the 55"

 

and

 

Post 5736

 

Oh mi oh my.... doubly nice... I'm out for late day... not pushing it

 

The problem I have with this "real time call" is as follows;

 

A) No entry price ("off the 55")

B) No stop (in this thread he states "I always use them")

C) No exit price ("out for the day....not pushing it".....)

 

I invite folks to go back in that thread and check the other "real time calls".....they are all very similar....

 

---------------------------------------------

 

As for his "ability to explain things" here is the most recent comment (post 5727)

 

"Nice work.... if you can get it. DFD

 

Slick? Big/long term/institutional sellers above 50... when I enter a trade.. I always want to know where it might fail. Buying too close to where long term traders stake short positions carries higher risk."

 

and my response a bit later

 

"Just a quick note....and hopefully it won't be interpreted badly

 

"Institutional" participants have not been sellers up high....at least not recently....in fact they are more likely to add to existing positions and/or to move price even higher...as I recall Dalton covers this in some of his books on Market Profile...speculators and commercials (and the few retail traders left) are likely to have a different view and may indeed be sellers at what they perceive to be a market top...

 

Also it seems to me that in this market most of the big players prefer to stand off and wait for opportunity before acting...there isn't a way to "see" them until they decide to buy or sell. most of what we "see" is automated programs ghosting orders....placing and pulling them to create the illusion of liquidity at various levels...

 

Finally one should understand that we are late in the year and institutional particpants only get paid if they hit their profit targets...There certainly could be a news driven pullback however most of the institutions willl try to mark it up whenever possible....from here to the holidays..."

 

and here is Predictor's response..

 

"Steve... it takes many opinions to make a market. I don't know what you see but its for sure not what I see. lol... I never seen ghost orders, that's for sure."

 

For those interested, Soultrader before he sold this site had a nice video on file showing how orders are placed, and then pulled to create the illusion of liquidity in the market...

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

About "Real Time Calls"

 

I don't pretend to make "real time calls"....frankly I have tried and cannot make the calls AND trade profitably myself.....since the gentleman claims he CAN, then let him provide a link to C2.... SHOWING JUST THE LAST TWO WEEKS.....including the trade mentioned above...

 

In sum, Traderunner I agree with your basic comment

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Andi: Thanks for your take. I agree that using stops are risky. But I also feel that not using stops can be risky too. I really don't like your martingale system. Markets are non normally distributed and have fat tails. If you're not dealing with the proper type of time series process then adding to size to that extent could be disastrous. You make the point that it only takes a small move when you get to full size to get profitable but you also miss the point that only a small move against you will result in a much larger loss. You didn't discuss your sharpe ratio or max dd or calmar or any other stats. It doesn't allow me to put the 17% in context. Also let me say.. i wasn't just ripping you for denigrating your readers but bringing attention to a pattern-- a confidence trick pattern -- that is used over and over.... The pattern is to first call others names or try to make them look stupid then to offer your "marvelous insights"... Take a look at Steve here to understand how it works but for sure he's not the ONLY one and I'm not singling him out either. Its just a pattern.

 

Steve: What are you talking about? You don't make real time calls and yet you complain because my real-time calls aren't good enough. If anyone was watching the market when I made the calls they would have seen I got them out and in right at the tops and bottoms. I don't always/usually posts my exits in advance because I have real money on the line. I'll let you know that after I'm out.. thank you. As said, my real-time calls are not for people to be able to mimic me. They are for my benefit first.

 

As for C2, I said in the "in the past". I hid my C2 records when I went live because I can make a lot more trading then I was renting out my systems. My historical records still exist but are hidden.. no reason to allow others to data mine my trades. As for my real-time records, they exist too and no I'm not going to share them.

 

Also, what you said about commercials vs institutions was completely asinine... to me. I didn't call you out for it.

 

Also in regards to your "ghosting orders" comment... I wasn't even talking about the order book. It was completely off base and wrong on at least 2 levels.

 

Sorry, it is not my job to educate you. For the record, I'm placing you back on ignore. This time its not because you're just insulting me but because I've monitored your posts and I feel that you don't offer very much value.

Edited by Predictor

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OK, so no C2... ("I'm not going to share the records")

 

and a "real time call"....is whatever you want it to be.....cause "its for your benefit first".....

 

I think we are pretty clear on what you have to offer now....thanks

Edited by steve46

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Advising anyone not to use stops, is akin to advising someone not to use condoms. You might be in a position where its ok for YOU to be unprotected, but it's terrible advice to give out.

 

The only finite rule in trading is this, "cover your ass!"

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TradeRunner,

 

There are some differences in what I've did and that differentiate me from Steve and other vendors here and elsewhere. I wasn't just referring to Steve, either. First, I made real-time calls. I've been one of the few who did that. I also tracked/had an open book on my calls for about 2 years. Again, not something that you'll find other vendors doing. These were audited by the C2 third-party.

 

The main reason is that the administrators here have been nice to me but also I feel that it can enhance my performance.

 

Not all vendors are equal. You are what I would categories as a true vendor. You say it in your (original) blog:

 

About:

I'm an entrepreneur, programmer, interested in trading..

 

Entrepreneur first trader last (and just an interest in trading!). I'm not aware that Steve sells anything.

 

As to the site owner. They are entrepreneurs to and there job is to drive traffic to their site so that they can make money selling advertising. They don't need to judge the quality of the posters because newbies (majority of the traffic) can't make that value judgement.

 

The main reason your are here is to drive people to your new blog so that you can sell to them. You use language in your posts to convince potential customers that you are the real deal, not to make them more interesting.

 

TradeRunner

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TradeRunner

 

>>Not all vendors are equal.

 

You are absolutely wrong on your conclusions but absolutely right about the above. I've made live calls here, and I know (from my trading record) that I haven't had a losing day in over 10 days. The fact that nobody payed attention is not my problem.

 

It doesn't bother me that you have something against me. What bothers me is your (and others) poor logic and reasoning skills...

 

Try harder. Okay. No? Okay, let me help you.

 

>>Entrepreneur first trader last (and just an interest in trading!).

 

This bordering on trolling. I don't even know how to respond to that. But, I think my trading ability is represented in my live calls.

 

>>The main reason your are here is to drive people to your new blog so that you can >>sell to them. You use language in your posts to convince potential customers that >>you are the real deal, not to make them more interesting.

 

It is true that I want to be credited, that is for people who read my articles, to be able to find where they can read more about my ideas if they are interested. But, if you are suggesting that I only post here to drive traffic to my site then that is patently false.

 

If you look at my live calls, you won't see a tagline to my website in them. Wouldn't I put a tagline to my website if I were only interested in driving people to my website? As I said, my live calls are mostly shared to help my performance. I thought that was the purpose of that thread.. for traders to share stuff in real-time about the market.

Edited by Predictor

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T

This bordering on trolling. I don't even know how to respond to that. But, I think my trading ability is represented in my live calls.

 

As Steve has already pointed out they don't contain enough detail to make that judgement.

 

Your are a programming entrepreneur who sells trading systems. You have said it in your old blog. You don't need to add tag lines because a link is already built into your details window.

 

Why are you selling trading systems? If they worked then why not trade them yourself and cut out the hassle of having customers.

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TradeRunner

 

Now you've crossed the line into trolling. This will be my last response to you, and I hope it will be sufficient. It is clearly off topic to the thread subject matter.

 

The trading system that I'm selling is based on similar logic to the one that I rented at C2. At C2 that logic combined with my discretion returned 55% last year and my subscribers who took those signals made thousands of dollars (as verified live trades as recorded on c2). Since closing my C2 system, I've taken nearly every trade with adjustments using discretion and have had very good live results too. Of course, again I like to make adjustments but the backtests have also been strong.

 

>>Why are you selling trading systems? If they worked then why not trade them yourself >>and cut out the hassle of having customers.

 

TradeRunner, this is my entire point.. you don't show a flexibility in thinking nor strong reasoning skills. First, you have this idea that something works or doesn't work. Most things can work to some degree or another and not absolutely. First, yes I do trade that system, with my own adjustments, (it is actually a class of systems, I trade the variation that suites me) and have good results with it.

 

Let me help you...

 

The system trades one of the most liquid contracts in the world. I am not at all concerned that sharing it with a few small traders will hurt my edge. In fact, my main motivation for offering it was because it has been doing well, and I wanted to add more contracts to it.

 

I'm a small trader and having extra revenue streams can be very worthwhile. Even so, I've made more money from my recent trading then I've ever made from my blog and other products.

 

There are a lot of reasons traders would sell working systems. For example, they may have allocated the maximum amount of capital they desire to a given system.. if the system has more capacity then there is no cost in selling it. Again in my case, I am still looking at increasing capacity but am also looking to diversify.

 

As for the system, there is no way that I nor anyone else can know that any system will continue to work in the future. I believe that, in general, people get rich by offering tremendous value to OTHERS. My goal, in all of my products, is to offer that tremendous value.

 

TradeRunner.. now you are on ignore.

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I'm not selling a product, training people to trade or benefiting in any way whatsoever from readers of my blog or followers on twitter (aside from entertainment value). You'll notice I have no ads on my site like most blogs do, thus I receive no benefit from the traffic.

 

That's simply not true, Andi. You have a link from your blog to the Xber9Trends website who, I can't help but notice, operate a rather juicy affiliate program . . . If I start looking at my cookies, will I find that I was tracked to that site?

 

Would you care to retract your statement above, or maybe remove the direct link from your website?

 

BlueHorseshoe

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BlueHorseShoe,

 

Having a link on a blog does not mean you get paid to introduce. In the past, I have also referenced TradersAudio, MrTopStep, DrudgeReport, NoShoesRadio, CNBC and many others.... doesn't mean I'm selling them.

 

The link to that site was put there to explain the context of the material I was writing about and the link was copied from wherever I was at the time. The only cookies I'm aware of are double chocolate chip or oatmeal.

 

If you don't like the material I reference, don't use it.... but I don't benefit in any way. My blog is for entertainment only.

 

-- Andi

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You'll notice I have no ads on my site like most blogs do, thus I receive no benefit from the traffic.

 

The reason that you have no ads on your blog is because Wordpress don't allow them - you couldn't put them there even if you wanted to . . .

 

BlueHorseshoe

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Re: ads on the site..... hahaha... oh. I wasn't even aware of that (not that i wanted ads on the site anyway). but as you can probably tell, i know nothing about web development and the site was made by a friend of mine.. i just provided the content.

 

Anyway.. ads are for chumps. :)

 

-- Andi

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OK, so no C2... ("I'm not going to share the records")

 

and a "real time call"....is whatever you want it to be.....cause "its for your benefit first".....

 

I think we are pretty clear on what you have to offer now....thanks

 

I too have been puzzled by what he meant by trade calls since his "calls" on that thread seemed to be win/win calls, meaning If I am wrong I was right and if I am right I am right.

So "Taking a high risk short" means taking a short but I know it probably won't work. Of course, we don't know what was made or lost. So, it's not about the call, it's about being right.

 

I can assure anyone that taking the number of trade calls that appear to be taken will lead to lots and lots of losses with the current level of volume and volatility in ES, you have just a tiny chance of squeezing out money from ES when you make all those trades. The simplest trading guides suggest that you not trade when there is no volatility. No trade is a trade.

 

You kind of have to look at it as being the small stack at a poker table. Pick your spots carefully. You need to be extraordinarily lucky to win playing rags against players with large stacks. Generally, you will get killed.

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I too have been puzzled by what he meant by trade calls since his "calls" on that thread seemed to be win/win calls, meaning If I am wrong I was right and if I am right I am right.

So "Taking a high risk short" means taking a short but I know it probably won't work. Of course, we don't know what was made or lost. So, it's not about the call, it's about being right.

 

I can assure anyone that taking the number of trade calls that appear to be taken will lead to lots and lots of losses with the current level of volume and volatility in ES, you have just a tiny chance of squeezing out money from ES when you make all those trades. The simplest trading guides suggest that you not trade when there is no volatility. No trade is a trade.

 

You kind of have to look at it as being the small stack at a poker table. Pick your spots carefully. You need to be extraordinarily lucky to win playing rags against players with large stacks. Generally, you will get killed.

 

Yes, absolutely, I see it the same way....NQ is looking a little easier to trade these days, but thats another story...Careful, he'll put you "on ignore" (with the rest of us) soon.....ROFL....

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Having a link on a blog does not mean you get paid to introduce.

 

Nope, but it still amounts to advertising, whether or not you benefit from it. And we only have your word that it's not an affiliate link . . .

 

On a different note - the blog is really cool. I agree with you on stops for most types of trading, and have argued this point, combined with massive de-leveraging, here on the forum in the past (nobody ever wants to hear it though :) ). It would be great if you found the time to contribute here on TL from time to time.

 

The only cookies I'm aware of are double chocolate chip or oatmeal.

 

Here in the UK we have cookies with Smarties in - they're pretty nice!

 

BlueHorseshoe

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MightyMouse

 

>>I too have been puzzled by what he meant by trade calls since his "calls" on that >>thread seemed to be win/win calls, meaning If I am wrong I was right and if I am right >>I am right.

 

Patently false... There are many days where I state I hit my max loss limit. If you had actually read what I posted you'd know this. It is all in that thread. (edit)

 

>>So "Taking a high risk short" means taking a short but I know it probably won't work. >>Of course, we don't know what was made or lost. So, it's not about the call, it's about >>being right.

 

I'm providing REAL-TIME ANALYSIS. A high risk short does not mean taking a short that probably won't work. A high risk trade means taking a trade that probably will work or that offers some edge but that requires a larger stop or higher risk of being stopped out. Most trades are going to be risky to some degree.. many will be high risk.

 

>>I can assure anyone that taking the number of trade calls that appear to be taken will >>lead to lots and lots of losses with the current level of volume and volatility in ES, you >>have just a tiny chance of squeezing out money from ES when you make all those >>trades.

 

Well that's good to have your assurances over my monthly statements. What are you willing to put up (in risk) for assurances? I have statements for everyday that I made those calls.

 

It is no wonder there are so many failed traders. I provide real-time calls that are spot on for free nonetheless, a service that most would charge $$$'s for, and nobody likes it. I guess I could post cherry picked trades from the past or complain like everyone else why you can't make money in this market..

 

Now I remember, this type of negative feedback that I'm getting now is one of the main reasons that I started charging for my materials. Because this has happened before... I'd share my insights for free, stuff that I'd normally charge for, and I might make some minimal request for credit such as a link to my blog. I'd get all kinds of complaints from the free loaders.

 

Yet, no complaints from the people who buy my stuff! And they actually show some initative. and if you want to know a truth that's just if not more motivating then the money.

Edited by Predictor

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    • Date : 25th November 2021. Market Update – November 25 – Solid US data lifts USD, Stocks, & Yields. USD (USDIndex 96.70) holds on at 16-mth highs; Strong set of US data yesterday GDP (2.1%) up a tick but missed by a tick, Claims (199k) at 52-yr low, PCE (0.4% m/m & 4.1% y/y), in-line & largest since Jan.1991, along with a big beat (5.9%) for GDP Price index, Durable Goods (0.5%) in-line, Personal Spending (1.3%) a big beat, Personal Income (0.5%) a beat, Trade balance a big beat (14.6%) on strong Exports, Inventories (-2.2%) a big miss, but shows demand is strong. Consumer Sentiment a beat and New Home Sales flat (745K) and missed. Stocks & Yields pushed higher, Oil held onto gains and Gold tested 3-week lows.   The FOMC Minutes showed (1) there could be a faster taper than the $15bn/mth currently planned, (2) Inflation could indeed be “persistent” (3) Clear division over 2022/23 rate hike cycle, Doves hold sway for now. US Yields 10yr trades at 1.644%, down from yesterday’s 1.694% high. Equities – Gains into the Holiday USA500 +10.76 (0.23%) at 4701 – USA500.F trades higher at 4713. USOil – peaked at $78.53 Inventories +1.0 vs -1.7 weakened prices – now at $77.65 Gold found a floor at 1782, but struggles to recoup $1800 at $1790. FX markets – EURUSD now 1.1216, having broken 1.1200, USDJPY now 115.36, from 115.50 & Cable back to 1.3350 from 1.3315 yesterday. Overnight – JPY PPI (1.0%) hit a 10-yr high, German GDP and consumer confidence both missed (1.7% vs 1.8% and -1.6% vs -1.0%) respectively. European Open – December 10-yr Bund future up 16 ticks, while US futures are slightly in the red. Bunds already outperformed yesterday, as EZ spreads widened in the wake of hawkish leaning ECB comments & confirmation that German finance ministry will go to the liberal FDP, which likely means more resistance to debt mutualisation across the EZ & more pressure on ECB to limit asset purchases. DAX & FTSE 100 futures are currently up 0.4% & 0.3% respectively & US futures are posting gains of 0.3-0.4%, suggesting markets are coping quite well with the prospect of less accommodative policies. Indeed, it seems to an extent that they welcome the CB’s acknowledgement that inflation risks could be less temporary than previously thought. Today – ECB Minutes, ECB’s Elderson, Schnabel, Lagarde and BOE’s Bailey Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADJPY (0.20%) The rally from Tuesday’s low under 90.00 has been sustained with 91.25 being tested earlier today. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram rising & over 0 line, RSI 61, H1 ATR 0.077, Daily ATR 0.707. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date : 24th November 2021. Market Update – November 24 – USD & Yields Higher, Stocks Mixed, Oil Recovers. Trading Leveraged Products is risky USD (USDIndex 96.50) holds on at highs; EM currencies under particular pressure. (TRY lost 15% after Erdogan refused a rate rise). RBNZ raised rates but NZD fell (like the last time they raised rates!) JPY Inflation 2 ticks better than expected. USDJPY at January 2017 levels around 115.00. PMI data better across the globe, Stocks mixed in US & Asia, Yields bid, Oil recovered significantly and Gold pressured by yields. Biden invites Taiwan to its “Summit for Democracy”, WHO talks of additional 700k Covid deaths across Europe (Slovakia latest to talk lockdowns). US Yields 10yr trades at 1.667%, down from yesterday’s 1.684% high. Equities Mixed. Musk sold more stock, Banks & Oil majors lead. USA500 +7.76 (0.17%) at 4690 – USA500.F trades lower at 4684. USOil – rallied over 3% to $78.20 highs despite global strategic reserves being sold to cool prices. Gold found a floor at 1782, but struggles to recoup $1800 at $1790. FX markets – EURUSD down to 1.1245, USDJPY over 115.23, earlier now at 114.88 & Cable back to 1.3375. European Open – December 10-yr Bund future up 26 ticks, US futures also broadly higher. RBNZ delivered expected rate hike & markets seem to be scaling back fears of escalating inflation as even dovish leaning BoE & ECB members highlight risk of second round effects. ECB VP Guindos highlighted overnight that the drivers of inflation are becoming more structural, which adds to signals that the CB is finally ready to start reining in stimulus. DAX & FTSE 100 futures currently up 0.3% & 0.2% respectively. Today – Big data day ahead of Thanksgiving Weekend. – German Ifo, US Weekly Claims GDP, PCE, Durables, FOMC Mins. & ECB speak Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.77%) RBNZ in-line but Dovish, sank from breach of 80.00 yesterday to 79.24, and 79.40 now. Faster MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram falling & below 0 line, RSI 35 & weak, Stochs OS. H1 ATR 0.17, Daily ATR 0.70. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • EURUSD HOVERS NEAR MULTI-MONTH LOW, UNDER 1.1250 LEVEL   EURUSD Price Analysis – November 24 Throughout the session, the EURUSD pair remained on the losing side and was last seen moving with considerable losses around the 1.1250-36 level. The announcement that the White House has opted to reappoint incumbent Fed Chair Jerome Powell for a second term sparked the recent strong dip. The spot is trading at 1.1253 at the time of writing, down 0.25 percent on the day. Key Levels Resistance Levels: 1.1525, 1.1422, 1.1300 Support Levels: 1.1200, 1. 1150, 1.1100 EURUSD Long term Trend: Bearish EURUSD has sunk to fresh multi-day lows, as seen on the daily chart, after extending the recent breach beneath the moving averages 5 around the 1.1300 level. This exposes the possibility of a deeper pullback and a re-test of the psychological support around 1.1200. Under the 1.1200 level, the euro’s underlying bullish attitude is in jeopardy. Overall, the EURUSD stays bearish while trading under the major horizontal support turned resistance and significant level at 1.1422. A breakout of the 1.1300 level, on the other hand, would aim for the 1.1350 level on the way to the 1.1400 zones. The fall of the 1.1200 zones, in the alternative scenario, is viewed as a bearish continuation indicator. EURUSD Short term Trend: Bearish The risk is weighted to the negative on the 4-hour chart, as the pair is developing below the firmly bearish 5 and 13 moving averages. Technical indicators have shifted to the downside, with negative levels. However, in the present scenario, the RSI has not yet reached oversold territory, allowing for more selling. On the upside, a break over the modest resistance level of 1.1300 might shift the intraday bias to neutral. On the downside, the 1.1200 zones provide initial support. The next important level of support is around the 1.1150 mark. If there are any more losses, the 1.1100 extension level of the low decline may be tested. Source: https://learn2.trade 
    • IS IT RATIONAL TO SETTLE FOR 10% RETURNS PER MONTH? “One of the secrets few know and fewer implement when it comes to trading success is that you have to really care about doing well. These days, I see a lot of traders not caring enough, not prioritizing learning about trading, and making pathetic weak-willed excuses.” – Chris T. Perfectionism – a bane of the trading world When people look for a solution to their trading problems, they tend to look for the solution in the wrong places, having the wrong mindset. One problem with most traders is perfectionism. For instance, we tend to go to those who promise us 50% to 100% per week or month. If someone gives an estimate of 5% profits per month, we would think that is too small. If an investment salesperson promises huge returns in a short period of time, we’re drawn to them. What if I tell you that 5% per month is good returns on your trading or investment, would you agree with me? Is 60% growth per annum not good enough? Many years ago, one of my mentors in the financial industry told me that, even 20% growth per annum is good. In schools, we tend to ridicule those who make average grades and praise those who make excellent grades. The same is true of the world of sports. Do you think great sports teams win all their matches always? No! But they do well over time. Are 10% gains per month too low? Now let me ask these questions: How much percentage do you earn on your savings account per annum? How much do you earn on your fixed deposit account per month? How many people can pay off their mortgages within one year? If you buy a bus, to use for commercial purposes, is it easy for you to recover your money in one year? Can you buy a property and sell it for 100% profit within 10 months? If you found a startup, how long do you think it would take you to start making profits? Please attempt to answer these questions yourself, based on real-life experiences. Now, back to the question that makes the last subheading: Are 10% gains per month too low? Why do we tend to be unrealistic and fallacious when it comes to online trading? Making 10% returns per month from Learn2.trade crypto signals One good thing about the margin trading of cryptos is that you can make money, both in bull and bear markets. You don’t make money only when the price is going up. If your timing and methodology are right, you can predict a downward movement or an upward movement and participate in them. Learn2.trade provides quality crypto signals to interested traders. Each signal comes with stop loss and take profit targets. Sometimes a trade is closed before the stop or the target is hit. We use 5 types of orders for the crypto signals. They are Instant Execution, also known as Market Execution, Buy Limit, Sell Limit, Buy Stop, and Sell Stop. Generating an average of 2 – 3 signals per day, we also use risk settings that are usually around 1% per trade and we attempt to gain more than we risk. As these signals are sent, we ensure that we also use them, practicing what we preach. Learn2.trade crypto signals – recent performances Please check the image below to peruse what has been made recently. You see can that we use stop loss, and use small lot sizes, relative to the size of the accounts. It just doesn’t make sense to bet too big on an individual trade. You can also see that we have both losses and profits. However, our average profits are bigger than average losses. That is the pedigree of a viable/ promising strategy: Make more money than you lose. Therefore, losses and drawdowns are also tightly controlled so that they don’t have significant effects on the account. These kinds of drawdowns are shallow, for recovery and eventual growth always happen. The markets are difficult but profitable Making consistent, regular profits from the market is hard, but success is possible. When the markets prove difficult, then we only need creative approaches. Markets will continue to prove uneasy and tough, but we will continue to make profits from them, no matter what. We target 10% profits per month, though we make more than this in most cases. 100% profits every 10 months is an enviable achievement. If 10% gains per month are compounded, the results in a few to several years will be amazing. Yes, you should be aware of the power of compounding. Join us today, in this journey of regular, monthly profits. Please see the image above, to know relevant metrics and figures of the recent results of the strategy behind the signals. You can join us here for, few free crypto signals per week: For Cryptos. Or you can hop in, and become our VIP right away, and enjoy all our crypto signals, up to 3 signals per day. Get access to the ability to make 10% or more per month. You can monitor our crypto signals trading performances here: L2T Crypto Signals on MyFxbook   Source: https://learn2.trade   
    • Yes trading currencies is much more risky than trading stocks, since they're not supported by central bank policy efforts but instead freely fluctuation in a very random fashion. Profits can create wrong impression that you learned how to trade but often it is just the product of pure luck. 
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