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  1. I don't think there is any good theory written on this subject - it simply comes down to your level of understanding. Most of the "technical stuff'' has some idea (i.e. exploiting market inefficiencies) behind it (although that may not be stressed). 1) First you should broader your understanding of what technical analysis is. (because your's seem to be very short sighted) 2) Then you should understand who are participating in the market. 3) Then you should examine reasons why they open or don't open their positions. (2 and 3 are manageable tasks.) 4) Finally the last step will be called ''doing the analysis''. Hint: Focus on concepts -> don't try to exploit participants via indicator that they are using. Why? Because that will be like a drop in the ocean indeed.
  2. This reminds me of this quote: "One idiot can ask more questions than ten wise men can answer." I certainly don't agree with your observations. Technical trading certainly has an impact on price.
  3. I am aware of that. Yes, but that was not my question... this part (that i called as assumption) was "mathematically self evident" to me. Sometimes it is hard to explain yourposition without sounding at least argumentative.
  4. Sorry, but did you read what I said? I said that it has nothing to with markets, outcomes could be whatever they are but since you are picking sell with 50% chance and buy with other 50% you are effectively getting BE. Imagine that coin toin toss has 100% chance to get heads and 0% to get tails (I believe this is what you mean by markets are not random). But you randomly pick heads or tails with 50% chance. In result you get 50% chance to win and 50% chance to lose in each coin flip. And this is purely random just like classic coin flip. I hope i shed some light on this. This type of stohastic process (binary+discrete) is called a "Bernoulli process" you can google that for more information and it has nothing to do with jump process. I don't see anyone claiming to have done tests here. But in a sense you are right. It was a bad idea to open this thread.
  5. This is interesting, but very hard to believe. In a random entry system you enter short with 50% chance and enter long with other 50% chance, so you can imagine trades as a series of determined outcomes and your result depends entirely of whether system has picked buy or sell, but .. since it is effectively 50-50 I don't see how there can be longer runs than in coin flipping situation. Are you saying that a random entry system with various rick:reward ratious will still be BE in a long run? Now I don't know how close these numbers are in long run... but that shouldn't be true. You can imagine that as a combination of two 1:1 trades. You win 1st one and then risk 2:2.. so 1:3 in total. If both of them were 50-50 trades then 1:3 trade would be BE, but since 2nd trade contains information that market has moved in one direction it affects probability of outcome. It should still be close to 50-50, but not exactly 50-50.
  6. I said your thinkiing process was right.
  7. My idea was that from results obtained one could draw some conclusions of how trending the market is on particular time (pip) frame. Just maybe... it migh give some edge in deciding if it is worth to keep profits ride or close the trade.
  8. Guys here are questioning things that are mathematically self evident. If on big sample size with R:R 1:1 one still doesn't get BE (EV=0) then he siply has wrong code.
  9. Where did I say i want to use random entry system? If you read carefully my question ( ''how could these results be used further to realistically give some edge?'') then you probably would not ask such retorick questions or mention kindergarden remindments of slippage. Sorry for being harsh, but i have encountered issue like this countless times and it is really annoying that people don't reead what you have written... or they simply have no deduction skills.. or my english is so bad that they don't understand a word. It is ok to stay away, but why waste our time?
  10. It is natural to assume that random entry system wirh risk:reward ratio of 1:1 would be BE. (I am sure that someone has proved it) And so I was wondering... should a random entry system with higher reward:risk ratious be +EV? (Since price tends to trend) Assuming that some risk:rewards (in exact pips) perfrom better.. how could these results be used further to realistically give some edge?
  11. Great, will check it out!
  12. Yes, that is what i used to do. But i don't want to use paint for this anymore, i don't find it convineint for this
  13. Hello. Thus far i have tried to make a folder (as i am checking my desktop, i see "Inside bar examples" and "Range BO"... haven't cleaned my desktop for a while... lol.) and adding pictures. Watching those pictures in slide show isn't bad, but i don't know a conviniet way of how to add some comments, thoughts. Also i would really like to specify some parametrs, which could later be used to select some part of pictures.
  14. hello, i am aware of oanda open positions for a while, but i am still unsure about some things. Q1: As I understand these numbers represent number of positions/orders rather total volume. Right? Q2: Is there significant positive correlation with volume? Q3: How big part of the total forex volume goes through a boker like oanda?
  15. It is usually not a good idea to relay on what it "looks like" without confirmation. I don't recommend guesswork, unless you are really good at it. Just put up 1minute chart and watch how price approaches that level... That is what I call a great textbook example. Stall, BO, test - one of typical ways that suggest that price movement will continue, Solid red line is 03.10 top, purple lines - various resistances from 18.10.
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