Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

dynamicsoul

My Top 6 Reasons Why Most People Fail At Trading

Recommended Posts

Many traders fail for many different reasons. I am sure if you have been active in the markets for any decent period of time you will have experienced the numerous obstacles that the markets can throw in front of you. Sometimes the thing holding you back from being successful is one the most basic principles. A high percentage of traders are not able to overcome them, and often have not even considered them. Below you will find my list of the most encountered obstacles which stop a willing trader from making a profit.

 

Find Your Edge

 

So you have a trading system but do you know what makes it profitable? Have you any idea of its strike rate and can you trust it? A question many traders cannot answer. A simple system that gives you 51 winners versus 49 losers from every hundred will make you money if you know how to manage it correctly, but there is an element of trust needed. Before you trade your system you need to properly analyse it to find out how often it wins and how often it loses. How big are the wins compared to the losses? How big is the drawdown? After answering these questions you will gain an element of trust in your system and be able to ride out the lean times to harness the gains from the bigger picture.

 

Stick To A Plan

 

If you are in a hurry to get somewhere you wouldn’t take the long route would you? Would you drive 1000 kilometers without consulting a map? I would think not. Much is the same with trading. Your system (or edge) is your plan and when travelling to your destination you must stick to the highway. Never stray from the plan and ignore any signs that tempt you to try a different route.

 

Don’t Spend What You Can’t Afford

 

Often a big mistake a losing trader will make is to trade too heavy in one single position. To lose a large percentage of a trading account on one trade is suicide and in doing so you are giving yourself a mountain to climb whilst clawing yourself back to breakeven. Not even mentioning the psychological damage it will do. Trade small in comparison to your trading account, the market will always be there tomorrow and trades will come each and every day.

 

Focus On Points Not Profit

 

We are all in this for one reason and that’s to make money, but money is also the root of all evil. By focusing your mind on percentages of your trading account, counting the points won (not dollars) and risk reward ratios eventually the money will stack up on its own. Thinking “I lost 20 points on that trade” rather than “I lost $200 on that trade” will also help you to stay out of the markets emotional games.

 

Learn From Mistakes

 

They say the clever people in this world are the ones who can instantly learn from their mistakes. This is also true when trading. If you repeat the same mistakes over and over its possible you may not have the correct frame of mind needed to become successful in this game. Learn and never look back. If you stray from your plan and lose try to understand the mistake and reinforce to yourself that it will never happen again.

 

Less Is More

 

How much time can you commit to this? This is a question that should be answered well before you select a system. Trade when you feel happy, trade when the markets open, take your money and leave. Often no position is the best position. Overtrading is one of the biggest downfalls of any new trader and will most likely lead to your account (and mind) burning out. Takes some trades and go do something else to stay fresh.

 

Live Your Life

 

Last but not least never forget what you are doing this for. You are doing this to give yourself a better life and more money. Enjoy it, take some time to live your life and don’t get caught up in the trap of being addicted to the markets.

 

Written by Pete Southern, editor at stockpricetoday.com

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One of the reasons so many new traders fail is that they see so many wannabe vendors spouting useless crap....when you are done with the marketing intro, I look forward to reading something useful......something we haven't heard before....

 

Thanks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's possible that like most vendors Pete will never get beyond giving away trite truisms that others give away for free too.

 

More bait for the sucker newbie?

 

If it smells like xxxx and it looks like xxxx, then you'd have to be stupid to taste it. :2c:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Charming!.. Welcome to the forum Pete..:(

 

It's a first article.. what do you want me to talk about next?

 

Gann, EW, Delta and tons of other stuff I've studied and binned over the years because of information overload..

 

I'll write something on how I trade, no indicators, only price action..

See if that suits you better...

 

Laterz. Pete.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Actually we don't need you to be charming, but perhaps we could get you to say a word or two about where you come from and what your background is.....What did you do before this....? What do you plan to do here? Do you vend a product or service or both....? Honesty works just fine here however what we see recently are folks who show up and offer to provide something and what they end up doing is trolling for email addresses..Ironically the "first post" often takes a form very similar to yours........its a tough act to follow....Welcome to the forum.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks

 

Maybe I shouldn't have got a vendor account?

 

I don't actually sell anything.. I write news for the website in the article footer link which provides free real time stock prices and charts etc.. Not selling anything, just posting up some stuff to help raise some awareness of the site I help out.. which in turn only provides a free service..

 

Am on vacation at moment, but will write some other more "useful" stuff when I get back..

 

Pete

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Why You Fail At Trading?

 

Because just like the movie GROUNDHOG DAY, you are doomed to keep repeating your errors until you finally figure it out.

 

But that's just the first part. After you stop losing, you have to learn how to win.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
One of the reasons so many new traders fail is that they see so many wannabe vendors spouting useless crap....when you are done with the marketing intro, I look forward to reading something useful......something we haven't heard before....

 

Thanks.

 

Wow! Give the person a chance before you attack them. Who moved your cheese?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It's possible that like most vendors Pete will never get beyond giving away trite truisms that others give away for free too.

 

More bait for the sucker newbie?

 

If it smells like xxxx and it looks like xxxx, then you'd have to be stupid to taste it. :2c:

 

We are adults and adults are old enough to make their own decisions. It TL a place where LIBERAL DEMOCRATS gather? Geez... enough of the NANNY STATE MENTALITY.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Actually princess, you and your "never lose again" type comments represent the same stupid misleading crap that causes people problems when they try to learn this challenging business...so I don't have a lot of patience with you either.....

 

and just to be fair, on the off chance that I am completely wrong...if ANY of you have read this gentleman's comment and from that point on have NEVER been on the losing side of a trade please take the time to say so here on this thread....surely there must be at least one of you....

 

Looking forward to hearing all about that

 

Lovely talking to you...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

:2c:[...

 

and just to be fair, on the off chance that I am completely wrong...if ANY of you have read this gentleman's comment and from that point on have NEVER been on the losing side of a trade please take the time to say so here on this thread....surely there must be at least one of you....

 

Looking forward to hearing all about that

 

Lovely talking to you...

Yes Steve, people who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones. I enjoyed that contribution because no matter how much you think you know about trading there is always something else you don't know. Don't knock this guy, he makes a lot of sense even though we have heard it all before our minds always need reinforcement of the basic ideas.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
:2c:[...

 

and just to be fair, on the off chance that I am completely wrong...if ANY of you have read this gentleman's comment and from that point on have NEVER been on the losing side of a trade please take the time to say so here on this thread....surely there must be at least one of you....

 

Looking forward to hearing all about that

 

Lovely talking to you...

Yes Steve, people who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones. I enjoyed that contribution because no matter how much you think you know about trading there is always something else you don't know. Don't knock this guy, he makes a lot of sense even though we have heard it all before our minds always need reinforcement of the basic ideas.

 

by all means gentlemen carry on.....I am still waiting for any person who trades using the Rumpled One's guidance and has never lost.........to say so.....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Steve -

 

Given the levels of anxiety you seem to suffer when people question your own 'advise' that everyone has seen and read before (i.e. yet another TA based approach), I'm surprised you are giving this chap such a hard time my old cheese.

 

May I respectfully suggest that before trying to intimidate others, you too try and produce something that some of us havent heard or seen before?

 

Try-

 

Something other than TA (TA is all the same old bollox really)

Something other than a proprietary 'secret' like your HFT indicator or Urma Burma's 'magic' indicator

Something other than '10 parables of success' and similar bed time reading.

 

You see, the thing is my old cheese, it's not the method, but the skill in which it is applied that makes the difference.

 

Trading is no different to any other game like golf or football. The rules are the same for everyone. There are countless books on how to improve ones game. There is no 'secret' to how to play golf, football, or the markets. Yet not everyone is a golf, football or trading 'pro', despite all one needs to know being out in the open.

 

The difference between success and failure is inside the individual. Its determination and application. Nothing more.You cant teach that in a gazzillion of your 'Im a guru' threads.

 

Try and be a little more mature please. Theres a good cheese.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The difference between success and failure is inside the individual. Its determination and application. Nothing more.You cant teach that in a gazzillion of your 'Im a guru' threads.

 

 

Love that analogy of success. How does one get that ? Through hours and hours of endless night's practice or blowing up just a few more than necessary accounts ?

or do you become so driven that failure is not an option ?

I tend to agree with you on this one.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
One of the reasons so many new traders fail is that they see so many wannabe vendors spouting useless crap....when you are done with the marketing intro, I look forward to reading something useful......something we haven't heard before....

 

Thanks.

 

Steve, you right on that part. Gotta friend of mine considering paying 350 a month for an indicator.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

the main reasons- they are not well learned or they are suffering psychological problems.

 

Learn forex first before opening a real account. There is no alternative way to get success without practicing. Work hard, keep patience, you can win.I think that in all business peoples lose money some time and some time they get profit, profit and loss is the part of any business, so do not be take tension, if you will trade with good strategy then never you will get loss.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Heres a few ideas....

 

not in any order....

 

1. trading the wrong products that are too volatile (fx, crude, etc)

2. paying too much commission

3. greed (see 1)

4. ignoring professional strategies as they are seen as being out of reach or difficult

5. trading like a punter in a casino (ie intraday momentum strategy on an outright), then talking about 'edge' and 'risk management' lol.

6. general ignorance of self and self delusion

 

can I have a 7th?

 

7. joining the herd rather than thinking for yourself (ie trading fx, risking 2%, signals based solely from a chart etc etc - just like the books and gurus tell you).

 

I'm still surprised when folk question why 80-90% lose, when they are all doing slightly different variations of the same thing! 6 months or a few years later - if they are still around, they are still doing the same thing and losing, but they think they have changed what they are doing, yet they havent - they've just changed timeframes, or using a different chart setting, product, etc. lemmings!!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
the main reasons- they are not well learned or they are suffering psychological problems.

 

I think this says it all..

 

Inexperience looses at the beginning, but psychological issues prevent progress..

 

I have seen this over and over again amongst lots and lots of traders.. Many traders gained a lot of knowledge over the years but can't put it together to make it profitable.. Often its clear they have lots of blind spots that comes from psychological issues..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Find Your Edge

 

This is the top problem.

 

Most people do not have a winning system.

 

I've never had a problem sticking to a plan but I've had a very rough time coming up with a profitable system.

 

Following the rules of a losing system won't get you anywhere.

 

Breaking the rules of a losing system won't get you anywhere.

 

The majority of systems you see online are either too vague to have specific rules (which gives the "guru" an out if you ever dare to question his instruction), or have concrete rules but don't backtest or forward test profitably.

 

While we're on the subject, beware of any "guru" who says there's no point in backtesting. That basically means "I don't want you backtesting my system and finding that it isn't profitable because then you'll stop paying me for seminars books and lessons."

 

Stick To A Plan

 

Yeah, definitely, assuming you have a profitable system.

 

If you have a profitable system you are 99% of the way there.

 

Don’t Spend What You Can’t Afford

 

For sure.

 

Focus On Points Not Profit

 

Probably more applicable when increasing contract size. If your first trade is a loser once you increase from 1 to 2 contracts, you might not want to see the dollar amount.

 

Learn From Mistakes

 

Definiately.

 

Less Is More

 

How much time can you commit to this? This is a question that should be answered well before you select a system. Trade when you feel happy, trade when the markets open, take your money and leave. Often no position is the best position. Overtrading is one of the biggest downfalls of any new trader and will most likely lead to your account (and mind) burning out. Takes some trades and go do something else to stay fresh.

 

Oh, you mean overtrading. Yeah. Well, stick to your system's signals!

 

Live Your Life

 

Last but not least never forget what you are doing this for. You are doing this to give yourself a better life and more money. Enjoy it, take some time to live your life and don’t get caught up in the trap of being addicted to the markets.

 

Agreed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
..

Am on vacation at moment, but will write some other more "useful" stuff when I get back..

Some long vacation.

 

I hadn't noticed it almost a year ago since OP started topic and last posted!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree with these reasons, because of them people fail in trading! I have many time spend for which is not affordable to me! and got fail :( so traders should follow "Don’t Spend What You Can’t Afford"

 

 

 

 

 

 

Best Regards

Harrey Martin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The reason why I failed in trading when I started was because My motive was initially wrong and my approach was terrible. I wanted to make so much money in a short time so desperately that I lost everything I started with. I approached Forex like a gamble and it cost me. Well, that is behind now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Similar Content

    • By ridhuanuzz
      Here are some trading courses that I know they have experienced trader as a teacher:
      - Stock Trading & Investing for Beginners by Udemy
      - Consistent Profits from Stocks With AI Assistance In Just 10 Minutes a Day! by Snap Academy
      - Trend Following For Stocks by Decodingmarkets
       
      Give me advice which one is the best to join?
    • By sergio
      Hi,
      We are doing a university job where we must investigate how banks manage their financial products that require trading, for example, they offer a fund, as they manage capital internally. Could you help me?
      Thank you!
    • By millonmethod
      Hello everyone!
      I am an advanced trader, with many years of experience (about 15 years - 10 living exclusively from this)
      I am going to give you some tips that you must know:
      There are going to be many people who tell you that trade is easy, that with only crossiing a line  with another one you will win a lot of money.... and that´s not true.  No, Sir, reality is far away from that. Many people who start arrive here with the hope that someone "gives them" a free method, they watch youtube videos thinking that this will give them the "strategy" and in a few days they realize that it does not work for them - they lose money - and then They go looking for a new one ... and so on. YES, IT´S TRUE YOU EARN IN TRADING, A LOT. BUT THINK: for a few to win (10% + any BROKER) many others must lose (90% people). YOU MUST HAVE A MONEY MANAGMENT FORMULA ( you can email me) People study so many years to live on this, not because they are dumb, but to know what they do, when, and have absolute effectiveness. It´s very easy to get lost here: do not disperse, jumping from one to another strategy WILL NEVER give you money, it will only waste your time and make you nervous when trading. PEOPLE WHO CHANGE THEIR METHOD CONSTANTLY : LOOOOSE ALWAYS.   If you have the knowledge to develop it, take your time and do it.  Always try it first on DEMO for at least 2 weeks! If not: search to buy a solid strategy (no you tube videos pleassse ! Avoid losing money! ) This is like any business, it requires some capital to start (capital = money in the broker + solid made /purchased strategy) If you are lost: I RECOMMEND YOU NOT TO WASTE TIME IN YOUTUBE, JOIN PEOPLE WHO HAVE EXPERIENCE AND IF YOU ARE GOING TO BUY A METHOD ... PLEASE !!!! DO NOT BUY 10 BAD AND CHEAP METHODS, SAVE MONEY AND BUY ONLY 1 BUT EXCLUSIVE AND MUST ALLWAYS HAVE SUPPORT !!!!!  Do not buy Signals! They never keep up with constant profits! One week will win and the next will lose. Nothing that does not depend absolutely on you will give you the money you are looking for. And if you do not have a strategy (made or purchased) do not even try PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE: DO NOT USE REAL MONEY! AT LEAST 2 WEEK DEMO FREE HELP HERE!!!!!  IF YOU FOLLOW MY ADVICE YOU WILL BE PART OF THAT 10% WINNER, email me.
      Have a nice trading day
       
       
    • By Georgebro8
      So I've been 18 for about 4 months, since I turned 18 I started up an account, and basically thought I was doing amazing because of beginners luck, put in some of my savings and managed to do well, some days I would make £200, one day I even made £900, after time I lost my profits and made a loss as well. I've realised I need to spend the time analysing the market and making technical judgments. I'm trying to read more and spend a lot of my time looking at the charts. is there any advice people can give me. and is making 5% a week a realistic goal to set myself? before anyone assumes that im looking for a get rich quick scheme, im certainly not, I see every loss ive made as a lesson and ensure that I learn from each mistake I make. 
      any advice about indicators, strategies, how to analyse the market, or even analysing earning reports would help me.
  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date : 12th December 2019. Lagarde prepares ECB debut – 12th December 2019.   Policy unchanged Projections unlikely to change much Clues about review sought Style in focus Presiding over her first presser of the European Central Bank today, Lagarde is expected to confirm once again the current policy setting, giving time to ECB to focus on the planned review of its overall policy framework.Final Eurozone GDP and PMI readings broadly supported this neutral picture, while the confidence that a deep recession can be avoided is strengthening (Figure 1) despite the fact that German manufacturing and production numbers still look weak. The exports and the overall trade are actually holding up much better than expected, which together with still strong labour markets is underpinning hopes the net exports and consumption will continue to support growth not just in Germany.Figure 1 : December German ZEW investor confidence outcome, end the year firmly in positive territory at the highest level since February 2018.As there is nothing in the data really to challenge the ECB’s overall policy stance, the focus firstly turns into the tone and presentation style that President Lagarde will have. The “risk” is that the presser will be equally uneventful as her testimony before the European Parliament. Lagarde’s team building exercise seems to have worked and at least in public there has been a pretty consistent message since she took over, which is very likely to be confirmed today. Additionally it will be interesting to see whether she will back fully Draghi’s package.Citi Bank: All key interest rates will likely be left unchanged, and the forward guidance reaffirmed. The main interest at this meeting will be the new Eurosystem staff projections, extended to 2022, to gauge whether the September package will be sufficient to bring inflation back into line with the ECB’s target over the forecast horizon. If not, investors’ attention will quickly turn to the ECB’s toolbox and what instruments the Governing Council would be willing to use and when, in order to defend its credibility in the absence of large fiscal support. The upcoming strategic review of monetary policy will also likely be the focus of many questions.Hence as reported by Citi, other than Lagarde’s style, ECB projections could also monopolize the attention. Even though, the ECB remains ready to act again and tweak all its measures if necessary, it has already done a lot and now needs to keep an eye on the side effects of the very expansionary monetary policy, while politicians need to do their bit to support the economy.The central bank won’t be reducing the degree of stimulus any time soon with many analysts supporting that this will continue until mid-2020 unless there is a major change in circumstance.Central bankers will be conducting a comprehensive review of the policy framework, however, with a special focus on the inflation target. A more symmetric definition, which stresses that the ECB can see through lengthy inflation overshoots as well as periods of too low headline rates is likely to come in the first quarter of next year. The inclusion of owner-occupied housing costs into the HICP number also remains a challenge especially as house prices are rising rapidly in some centres, also thanks to the low interest rate environment.Bund yields have nudged higher over the past week, but the German 10-year so far failed to move lastingly above -0.3%. Uncertainty on trade and Brexit are keeping a lid on yields, although there is the risk that if things go the way markets want and a phase one trade deal is confirmed and in the UK PM Johnson gets his majority, there could be a sharp rise in yields, if markets price out further easing and start to look ahead to central banks removing some of the stimulus.However this is far away for now, while central bankers are not looking eager to add further easing.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • USDJPY Remains Biased To The Downside   USDJPY faces further price weakness despite its price hesitation on Tuesday. On the upside, resistance comes in at 109.00 level. Above this level will turn attention to the 109.50 level. Further out, we expect a possible move towards the 110.00 level on a break of that area, A cut through here will open the door for more gain towards the 110.50. On the downside, support lies at the 108.00 level where a break will target the 107.50 level. Below that level will turn focus to the 107.00 level and then lower towards the 106.50 level. On the whole, USDJPY faces further downside threats.        
    • Sterling Advances Barely Hours To UK Elections As Latest Poll Predicts Conservatives Win In just two days from now, a major event that will set the trend for the currency market for the year 2020, the UK elections will be held. In the face of a Brexit extension, UK prime minister had pushed for an earlier election in the hopes of having a majority conservatives win in the parliament which will make the Brexit deal pass through easily. As the clock ticks, with barely less than 48 hours to this epochal event, the newest poll by Survation conducted for ITV’s good morning Britain show predicts a Boris Johnson win by 14 pts. ahead of Jeremy Corbyn‘s Labour party. The Brexit deal seemed to give the conservatives an edge as it accounted for 32% of the vote decision while NHS gave Labour party a slight edge. On the overall, a majority vote of 42% was predicted for the conservatives while Labour had 28%. Market Reaction as the Clock Ticks Optimism looms in the market as the prediction of a conservatives win will ease Britain’s exit from Europe by January 31 deadline. The EUR/GBP pair continued to fall till the early hours of today breaking the 0.8411 trend line targeting the 0.8149 resistance level. GBP/USD pair rebounded to consolidate briefly targeting 1.3381 resistance levels. Technical analysis within a 4-hour MACD shows that both pairs may likely touch down. CAD edged slightly higher advanced by USMCA news but yet to consolidate gains. The USD against a basket of five major currencies held steady awaiting FOMC’s minutes due out tomorrow. Against a basket of currencies, NZD’s dominance is the highest. Sterling also gained momentum firmed up by approaching UK elections. The safe-haven, the Japanese yen, and Swiss franc remain pressured as major events that will shape the market for 2020 are been anticipated. On the Asia side, significant market activity wasn’t recorded as most currency pairs held steady within a day’s range. In the Asian stock market, not so much activity was recorded being weakened by recently released Chinese PMI numbers. Most of the indexes closed a little lower while US stocks rose swiftly after Friday’s release of US non-farm payroll reports. The outcome of the December 15 deadline set by the US for the signing of a preliminary trade pact will determine the week’s direction and even further into the year 2020. Also due out later in the week is UK GDP figures and ZEW released out of Germany.
    • Date : 11th December 2019. FOMC Preview – 11th December 2019. FOMC Preview No policy changes or surprises are expected with today’s announcement (19:00 GMT) and Chair Powell’s press conference 30 minutes later. It will be interesting to see if, as expected, the voting is unanimous this time round. The FOMC members have expressed significant differences of opinion during 2019 as three rate cuts were implemented.  The apparent paradox of low unemployment and low inflation, the new “norm”. The two-digit unemployment rate (U-3) in November edged down to 3.53% from 3.56% in October, and a 3.52% cycle-low in September, all below the 3.58% prior cycle-low in April and a 4.00% rate at the beginning of the year. Current readings remain much lower than the 4.2% long-run unemployment rate projection noted in the September SEP, it is expected that this estimate will be trimmed today. Headline CPI rose 0.4% in October while the core index rose by 0.2%, for respective y/y gains of 1.8% and 2.3%, versus September figures of 1.7% and 2.4%. Today the November headline is expected to fall again to 0.2% and the core remains flat at 0.2% too. The Fed’s favoured inflation gauge, the PCE chain price measure, rose 1.3% y/y in October and expectations are for an uptick to 1.4% in November. The core PCE chain price measure rose 1.6% y/y in November, versus 1.7% in September, and expectations are for the pace to hold at 1.6% in November. The FOMC’s latest median estimates for 2019 inflation are 1.5% for the headline and 1.8% for the core. Hence, the focus will be on the Fed’s new quarterly forecasts, with expectations raised and likely to be mostly bullish results with a bump up in the median growth projection and a drop in the median dot to reflect a steady stance through 2020. However, the individual dots are likely to show both, forecasts for cuts and hikes. Chair Powell is expected to reiterate the US economy and policy are in a “good place,” (a phrase he has used a number of times lately) and could sound a little more upbeat after the strong jobs report. But, he will continue to warn of downside risks. The FOMC isn’t likely to announce any new measures on reserve management operations (QE?) or a repo facility. All steady into 2020 and beyond. USDIndex remains biased to the down side but has support around 97.40 and the 200-day moving average. A breach of this key support zone brings in 97.00 and the October low of 96.85. A break over 97.80 (the confluence of the 20 and 50-day moving averages) and 98.00 would be required before a re-test of the recent high at 98.50 could be considered. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.