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    SF Bay Area
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    Investments and trading
  • Biography
    Trade ES and CL
  • Interests
    Basketball, tennis, coaching youth sports, and of course trading....

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  • Trading Years
    20 years if you include stocks and options. Spent many years trading options and selling puts.
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  1. @Steve, Fully automated trading do take skills of-course but there is no execution factor to deal with as its automated.. Execution is what separates discretionary traders.. how they choose the set ups, how they hold/fold and etc.. I think there may be some connection between past business success and interpersonal relationships to a small extent only in that it might reveal some emotional maturity but we all know its not uncommon for very successful people in other endeavors to fail at trading.. Trading is an individual endeavor and self awareness is clearly more important than social skills.. True emotional maturity and immaturity can be seen in the way people respond emotionally.. Often you will see that those who appear humble in presentation are often very egocentric in reality.. A sure way to see this in trading forums is when another trader does not focus on content but on the person, wanting to be right and etc. The way we respond emotionally in our interactions may be telling in how we might respond in our trading decisions when reading the market and seeing it the way we want to see it rather than what it is in its totality.. I've seen this many many times in trading forums and I'm sure others has as well..
  2. 5 min the night before, and 5min prior to the opening.. The entire day's strategy is formed from that.. Future decisions depends on what and how the day develops..
  3. Focus on being good at what you do and the wealth will follow.. The only way you'll be good at what you do is if you enjoy it and have a passion for it.. When wealth is no longer the primary goal, the wealth will come to you.. Wealth should not only be measured in material ways, but also other inner ways.. People often become wealthy materially from all kinds of reasons.. There are no guarantees of anything.. The only thing aside from dumb luck is preparation and skills, and even that don't guarantee anything but will increase your edge..
  4. Everyone brings out really good points and I can't disagree with any of the posts really.. This might be a simple solution; For those that may have psychological obstacles that are hard to identify or pin point, why not focus on an automated approach to trading, where psychology becomes a non-issue.. I've heard many traders have found success with that approach so it must be possible. Discretionary trading is execution and skill based and how we respond psychologically has high impact on execution and read on the market.. Whenever traders respond unreasonably despite the reason why (which can be all over the board), I automatically assume they're loosing traders unless they trade automated where psychology and emotional response has no impact..
  5. I think this says it all.. Inexperience looses at the beginning, but psychological issues prevent progress.. I have seen this over and over again amongst lots and lots of traders.. Many traders gained a lot of knowledge over the years but can't put it together to make it profitable.. Often its clear they have lots of blind spots that comes from psychological issues..
  6. If he's truly verified that, that's an impressive feat regardless of sim or live and that's already head and shoulders above most trading educators, which typically won't provide either. Who cares if he's "excessively" self promoting by his claims that are already verified.. why should that bother anybody else.. Its the trading educators that makes such claims that don't verify that trading forums should harass but typically they have lots of supporters...lol, the irony.. HOWEVER, if its only in sim and not live, it also means there is no evidence of self mastery with the psychological aspect of trading but that can also be a very personal thing as every trader has different risk tolerance and constitutional makeup. For traders seeking to be profitable, they should 1'st learn to be profitable in sim first and then go live.. Maybe Mr. Felton can help them at least achieve the 1'st part.. When they go live, their inner demons will come out, but at least they won't have to worry about both a workable edge AND their psychology at the same time.. Psychology is a very personal thing and each has to work that out on their own by being honest and self reflective about it.. If Mr. Felton is indeed unable to take any criticism, I would take that as a psychological weakness, and can explain why he can sim trade like a champ and can't duplicate it live. Ideally you want to learn from someone that has both a good understanding of the market AND someone that understands how psychology is integrated into the method.. Thus far, it sounds to me like Mr. Felton has verified one aspect but not the other.
  7. I'm typically very suspicious of vendors but reading many of Roger's comments, he does sound like he knows what he's talking about.. He's made a pretty generous offer and it shouldn't hurt to find out if it resonates with you.. Here's a really easy way to settle it.. See some RECENT statements or see some real time trade calls over a period.. That should settle it real quick.. If statements and real time trade calls is consistent with the claims, see if that method resonates with you or if you can integrate it with what you're already using. Real simple.. no need to beat him up.. Here are 2 trusims to recognize in public forums: 1 - although there are lots of trading educators that can't trade, certainly there has to be some that can... 2 - trading involves a lot of ego and that's why public trading forums often gets into ego wars and typically, unsuccessful traders are resentful of traders claiming success. but the easy way to settle it if anyone is serious is to either show statements or give real time trades.. anything other than that are just claims really..
  8. When watching both the 10 year and the 30 year bonds, do you give more weight to one over the other? I know the old SP futures floor traders used to watch primarily the 30 year so is watching the 10 year in addition redundant? Its interesting that in your example there was some divergence between the 10/30 year giving 2 stories about the ES opening.. How often does that occur and how do you typically read into that?
  9. Interesting with the copper and that does make sense.. How do you use it with your trading? Do you consider it leading/lagging or do you primarily watch for divergence as a warning sign? It will be interesting going forward as mentioned that although copper should be correlated with gold/silver, there is some fundamental reasons to believe gold is positioned to move higher whereas the SPX may be positioned to move lower. If that was to happen, it will be interesting to see how copper responds to that scenario. I agree with your comment that although hind sight analysis can teach some things, that's not how the money is made and that really is why we're all trading, to make money and not to give great hind sight analysis..... I'll readily give my real time analysis and trade calls though I find this rare anywhere.. Other than showing the dom or pnl, everything comes out over a short time period real time in terms of the value of the analysis or the correct use of analysis tools... TL don't have a live chat room which is really the easiest way to do that.. I think it would be a lot of fun and a great learning experience to have such a room and take turns moderating for the day so as not to have tons of confusing calls in it with various rationale.. I trade a combination of levels and PA. I don't predict where price will go ahead of time or what levels are going to hold and etc, but will read it real time in terms of how price should be behaving and how it is behaving and what that means within the current context. The opening trade is based on where we open within the structure of price. Where in the balance area, and where the closest s/r are and how price is behaving. There's a contextual aspect. I also look at some correlated markets but prioritize what I see.. I can give plenty of hind sight analysis but the trade has to survive real time entries, exits and stop outs to really assess the value of the analysis and approach real time..
  10. I thought copper would be correlated with gold and silver.. Curious why copper is singled out as correlated to the ES?
  11. New traders will clearly learn much faster if taught and guided by a successful seasoned trader but most of the heavy lifting is in the EXECUTION and dealing with the NUANCES and DISSONANCE that comes with trading. New traders should not have to pay for general wisdom like "keep your losses small" and "hold your winners" and etc.. or pay for hindsight analysis and pay big bucks for it, which seems to be the norm like sheep eager to be fleeced.. Think about it; you can make up any method (rational or irrational) you can imagine in 5min, and I can easily pick out all the hind sight winners for you and show you how it worked perfectly.. It means nothing if you can't survive the stop.. Unfortunately, most places that teach trading will teach everything except the execution and charge a small fortune and they have thousands of students that buys into that.. Every method has some validity in various market conditions.. Its the ability to capture that opportunity that new traders need to learn, the execution.. the ability to sort thru the dissonance and nuances.. This means the ability to read the market real time.. If a mentor can show their execution real time and give real time rationale, I think the student will be very fortunate to have found such a mentor.. Otherwise, I'd say try to get some good free tips from other good traders in the forums and save your money and learn by blowing a few accounts trying out your own method.. that will teach a lot.. I don't think trading real time and explaining things real time is too difficult for a competent trader as they know what they're looking for within various contexts.. That's what new traders should seek when they're ready to pay to learn.. Everything else is free on the forums and internet.. You have to learn by doing but someone to help you read the market real time and guide the execution will warp speed your learning curve and that I believe is money well spent..
  12. This question is for both Colonel and ForexTraderX, How would you use that information in your trade? For example, If the 10yr is making new lows and ES isn't making new highs, does that mean ES is weak and short it or perhaps buy support as ES may be supported by the weak bond market? If the 10 yr is trading in the previous day's range and the ES is opening out of range, would you see that as ES eventually coming back into range and fade a level or ES is behaving especially strong since its moving out of range regardless of what the bond is doing? Thx, TZ
  13. The market will have to stay outside the A level for 10min because the OR is 20min and etc.. The 20min OR on ES is supposed to establish average true range. When price exits this ATR and stays outside for some confirmation, then that is the directional bias.. There's a lot more to it but that's the simple premise. If you read the book called The Logical Trader by Mark Fisher, it gives a good summary of the concepts..

  14. The question is can it be recognize b4 it happens? If it can still be capitalized upon by seeing it real time as price is running, how much risk is involved in trading in that direction? One of the simple ways to recognize stop runs is to watch the speed of the tape. As the tape starts to run faster but the size is not picking up, its usually stop runs.. and you will often see new volume coming in as bigger size moves into the direction. However, by the time you see this, you're about 2 pts late with another 2-3 pts profit potential left so the R/R is hsa often escaped..
  15. I believe the physiology/psychology has to be put into context with the way we're supposed to trade with our method. Ultimately, our method needs to have a mathematical edge.
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