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joshdance

The Close of a Bar is Meaningless

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Someone posted in another thread that he uses a 6000 tick bar chart, and that he waits for the bar to close before entering the trade. That prompted me to write this, which is something I have been wanting to do a mini rant about but just haven't yet. As always, this is solely my opinion as there is little "truth" in the markets but rather we merely have opinions and our own view of things.

 

Bar closes are not "important" in the sense that they mean anything significant to any significant number of people, except in one major case: the close of the day. The day itself may be structured such that we subdivide it into periods which allow us to function more effectively (for example, we may define the first half hour as the opening range, the first hour as the initial balance, and we may refer to the morning, midday, and afternoon, and so on); however, the only instance in which the market really has the notion of a "close" is the close of the day, and given the global nature of markets, the true close of the market comes at the end of the week, when there is a true break from trading for 48 hours.

 

Maybe that ruffles your feathers, if you are a fan of VSA or some other strategy which pays attention to the bar close, but the logic should be clear. We are all watching the same market, but one trader uses a 5 minute bar, one uses a 1 minute bar, another a 30 minute bar, another a 10K vol bar, another a 5K tick bar, another an 8 range bar, and so on. These are just data presentation mechanisms, and the market does not have a concept of any of them; they are purely our creation. The close of a bar is a snapshot of a price traded in the flow of market activity.

 

What are your thoughts? If you use the closing of a bar as a part of your trading, or if you feel that a bar's closing price is important, can you explain and convince me (or others)?

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We are all watching the same market, but one trader uses a 5 minute bar, one uses a 1 minute bar, another a 30 minute bar, another a 10K vol bar, another a 5K tick bar, another an 8 range bar, and so on. These are just data presentation mechanisms, and the market does not have a concept of any of them; they are purely our creation. The close of a bar is a snapshot of a price traded in the flow of market activity.

 

What are your thoughts? If you use the closing of a bar as a part of your trading, or if you feel that a bar's closing price is important, can you explain and convince me (or others)?

 

I couldn't agree more, especially when it comes to intraday trading, as you say.

 

Except that you missed a bit . . . In addition to the fact that you're trading 5mins, I'm trading 3mins, and Joe Soap is looking at a 20min chart, there's also this to consider: you and I could both be looking at five minute charts, but if my five minutes are staggered by, say, just one minute, then I'll be looking at a rather different chart to you. If price moved a lot in that 'sixth' minute, then your five minute candle will be a nice long one, and I'll have some crummy little doji.

 

So I agree: intraday closing prices are a completely arbitrary construct in which a discrete time structure is imposed on continuous price data.

 

And yet I only take entry signals on a bar closure. Why on earth would I do that? Because I'm working with a backtested strategy that uses the indicator value on the close.

 

Another thing to consider: when a trader says 'this works on five minute charts', this isn't necessarily to do with the close. If it doesn't work on daily charts, then its just as likely that it would work on a five min chart using the low price, and wouldn't work on daily charts using the low price. This seems slightly logically inconsistent with my earlier statement - perhaps its because I haven't eaten all day . . .

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I agree with the first two posters - its arbitrary, however if you test for a particular method, then stick with that for consistency.

I find it funny when someone says it works on a 5min bar, but does not on a ten minute bar.....to me it does not make much sense.....anyone else know?

 

Personally I find I like to use he close of bar as just an extra confirmation that there is strength for the move I want - ie; if I think something is going up, i dont want a spike to get me long if I am buying breaks, I want a close of the bar (relative to every other bar I am looking at) as an extra confirmation that the move might have some vailidity.

Now before it starts - yes - the spike I talked about could just be on the close of that bar and in fact is still largely irrelevant, however I view it that if I am trading a 5 min chart, and the last few 1 min charts of that bar have been above the buy level, then that tells me its more of a valid break as opposed to the probability it just happened to spike on the close......maybe I should look at the last two 1 minute bars, maybe, maybe, maybe.....but for me its just something that helps confirm things for me.

 

The other thing about on close of bar, is that if using more automation it can stop multiple triggering of systems if they whip up and down through a level, when you only want the bar to fire once on the close. Sure you might have it fire just once per bar as well.....but then this is just as arbitrary. This is the key for me as I try and automate somethings....making it work with a system as opposed to just firing all the time.

I also find it an easy measure when looking to say short a rally. I am looking for some sort of pullback to occur before I short. .....a close of bar, or a low of the previous bar is just as arbitrary.....but you have to pick something.

 

I have mucked around with range bars to try and minimise the issues involved here, but have found in fast moving markets, the range bars can often give a distorted view - iel 5 range bars might occur in one minute bar - so while they are good at eliminating some of the noiseless chop, the downside is the reverse in quickly trending markets.....so I use range bars as a visual que, and have stuck to time based bars for triggering ......realising its all arbitrary anyway. ;) - all these squiggly lines can really mess with the mind......:doh::crap:

Edited by SIUYA

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Great topic. I'm especially interested in what the non-descretionary robot side of everyone thinks

...about the value of C?

 

 

Yes it is a great topic onesmith and joshdance has introduced it well as can be seen from the responses.

 

I don't use it anymore but for some time I saw the Close from Siuya's point of view as a snapshot ... yes I agree that price may close up in this 3 minute bar but on another guy's machine it may be the following bar and that is why I used Close as a component of the Typical price [(H+L+C)/3]

Now I don't even do this.

 

As has been clearly stated, Close of day, week month, quarter is important and becomes even more so if it is preceded and succeeded by both higher or lower Closes.

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Someone posted in another thread that he uses a 6000 tick bar chart, and that he waits for the bar to close before entering the trade. That prompted me to write this, which is something I have been wanting to do a mini rant about but just haven't yet. As always, this is solely my opinion as there is little "truth" in the markets but rather we merely have opinions and our own view of things.

 

Bar closes are not "important" in the sense that they mean anything significant to any significant number of people, except in one major case: the close of the day. The day itself may be structured such that we subdivide it into periods which allow us to function more effectively (for example, we may define the first half hour as the opening range, the first hour as the initial balance, and we may refer to the morning, midday, and afternoon, and so on); however, the only instance in which the market really has the notion of a "close" is the close of the day, and given the global nature of markets, the true close of the market comes at the end of the week, when there is a true break from trading for 48 hours.

 

Maybe that ruffles your feathers, if you are a fan of VSA or some other strategy which pays attention to the bar close, but the logic should be clear. We are all watching the same market, but one trader uses a 5 minute bar, one uses a 1 minute bar, another a 30 minute bar, another a 10K vol bar, another a 5K tick bar, another an 8 range bar, and so on. These are just data presentation mechanisms, and the market does not have a concept of any of them; they are purely our creation. The close of a bar is a snapshot of a price traded in the flow of market activity.

 

What are your thoughts? If you use the closing of a bar as a part of your trading, or if you feel that a bar's closing price is important, can you explain and convince me (or others)?

 

This is right up my street.Great stuff josh.I agree,but i'd also add the daily/weekly high and low are fixed points after the close and they are massively important for me personally,particularly in their relationship to each other.

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This is right up my street.Great stuff josh.I agree,but i'd also add the daily/weekly high and low are fixed points after the close and they are massively important for me personally,particularly in their relationship to each other.

 

Absolutely mitsu, and I thought about addressing other points of interest in my initial post but decided not to, to keep it simple.

 

I would conclude that the high and low of a particular bar is largely irrelevant as well. Although, boundaries can be formed if we group the market's flow together and we can observe areas that we term support and resistance, and these may be useful to some traders. With respect to the high and low of a day, or week, I think these can be seen as important for the same reason that the open or close for those periods are, namely that the day and week are clear delineations of trading activity.

 

To briefly add to this: Highs and lows of groups of bars form boundaries, and we often use these boundaries to make decisions. We are taking highs and lows as extremes, and this differs from the close. The close is taken at an arbitrary point, whether it's when a certain time arrives, or when a certain number of ticks have gone by, or when a certain amount of price movement up or down has occurred. Highs and lows are not taken at an arbitrary point; rather, the market generates the transaction information, and we observe the boundaries by grouping transactions together. The market does not generate a "close", except at the end of the day or week. True, we only observe a "high" or "low" in the context of a period of time or activity. However, the "close" is an arbitrary definition of the end of something, which has no end except once per day and once per week.

Edited by joshdance

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While the highs and lows may form boundaries, the close does give a "relative measure" to the previous closes - for that particular time frame.....think about this in terms of watching a single sgiggly line of a 5 min chart without the highs and lows as boundaries. Sometimes even this can give a reasonably clear picture of whats happening without the noise of the highs and lows :2c:

 

think about it in terms of a market that is actually going nowwhere and continually reverting back to its close which might be in the middle of some large range bars.

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I think the highs/lows are more useful... I agree what you claim makes sense. Only one thing is that the close could work similar to a moving average, so I would have to disagree that its meaningless. But, I agree it may not be the most meaningful way to view price..

Edited by Predictor

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What if you have no open or close, just hi and lo. no indicators, with 4 or 5 bars identical in range give or take. How could you make an assessment of the order flow, absorbing or distributing without a key element of market psychology present, the CLOSE regardless of time frames. For me the OPEN is useless, even if a gap the psychology of market conditions is present in the close.

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The close shows the path the market took through time, as measured at an arbitrary but consistent point in time. This pondering on the close is really a specialization of a more general question on how important that the path, even whether it is important, that the market takes over time is meaningful.

 

Some methods such as point/figure and range bars minimize the importance of the path while other charting methods (line on close) focus primarily on the path taken.

 

Curtis

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The close is a piece of information. Consider it the way you would consider a book in a library: Its useless until someone uses it.

 

I get in after the close all the time. I wouldn't be able to get in if I didn't have a close, so in my case the close has a great deal of importance. However, I do not trade with time bars for short term trades so I can't comment on how or if a 5 minute bar trader could benefit from the close of the bar.

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My opinion is that you cannot interpret the candle until it is full closed. A 15-min candle for instance can be 1 or 2 minutes away from closing in a big body bearish candle and then rally to form a hammer. Wouldn't you agree?

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It's all about beliefs and bias.Whatever the subject of the debate.But to stay on topic.There are 3 ideas regarding OHLC that are part of my philosophy.And i will say,for me,i'd rather be wrong about my beliefs and make money ,than be correct but make no money. (he said trying to cover his ass :) And these are.

 

1) For a retail trader there are very few facts we can rely on.I wish my brother worked for Goldman Sachs but alas,,, I don't mean to offend anyone here,but a lot of what i see other traders doing is for me trading noise.Some of these guys are extremely skillful at this,but i think of noise as high risk low probability. So for me,OHLC is the best fact i can get on raw price data that has useful meaning.Of course,it's noise on larger time frame,but that is not a disadvantage to me.

 

2) For me,it's partly mathmatical,so the less prices the more reliable the maths.Otherwise it would be information overload. 4 prices per day= :cool: noise= :confused::angry::doh:

 

 

3) If you don't believe markets are random,then there must be....intent...objectives...

targets..attraction....acceptance...rejection,and also manipulation and deception.

 

The maths part is easy.The problem is the order of price objectives which is about intent.

That is the trickier part. But that is the story of OHLC and a big part of what i focus on.

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My opinion is that you cannot interpret the candle until it is full closed. A 15-min candle for instance can be 1 or 2 minutes away from closing in a big body bearish candle and then rally to form a hammer. Wouldn't you agree?

 

Are you sure you're not interpreting the next candle though? even as it is forming? Because your're describing demand coming in there and rejection,,,leads to maybe short covering,trapped traders..new buyers...momentum,and if you got real momentum,maybe add size?

I don't read bars for entries/exits but once i'm in a trade it's nice to see momentum going in my direction,which should happen if i got it right for example.Personally i don't really watch the chart too much once price has gone my way.

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My opinion is that you cannot interpret the candle until it is full closed. A 15-min candle for instance can be 1 or 2 minutes away from closing in a big body bearish candle and then rally to form a hammer. Wouldn't you agree?

 

Tim.i think i'm gonna have to buy you a drink sometime 'cos it seems i'm always picking on you,candles,fibs;):)

 

But i got a problem with the way this actually works in real time for you..or anybody.I'm gonna make my tues trading moves based off of mon ohlc which are printed history and not going to change.I got hours to work it out...wouldn't you agree?.

 

Now,you say you need to see an intraday bar close before you can interpret it..Yes? so i reckon you got a micro second to make a move before the next bar starts forming and you cannot interpret that one either until it closes:confused:

Help me out here

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My opinion is that you cannot interpret the candle until it is full closed. A 15-min candle for instance can be 1 or 2 minutes away from closing in a big body bearish candle and then rally to form a hammer. Wouldn't you agree?

 

Yes, and then in the next 15 minutes the market can trade lower, forming a nice bearish 30 minute bar. And then in the next 30 minutes it can rally stronger, forming a nice bullish reversal bar with a big long tail on the 60m. But then you look over to your 240m chart and notice that, alas, it has closed much lower than it opened at the same time the 60m closed up.

 

I suppose you will say that the answer is to stick with one timeframe, and go with that. I think that if you are paying attention to bar closes, that this is probably the best way.

 

Hopefully my point is clear. If not, here are several different pictures of the same event on different periodicities.

1m.png.74aef0b7910df95d9bd65f90654d2a78.png

5m.png.ebd7a53dc2ff9d30d618de6240b0ca9c.png

30m.png.7d1e9e56fe10d6cc3cd7792d280d3cdc.png

6r.png.8715ab985068d6d698aadd5cc521534c.png

15ktick.png.e2c5c2f54910010298cc30b31dfeacb9.png

15kvol.png.8906fb7352bf460d3a4594415875cdb8.png

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This is what deters me from basing trading decisions purely on visual representations of price.I suspected before i even started trading it be would be a problem and nothing up to this point has really shifted my view on that.

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What if you have no open or close, just hi and lo. no indicators, with 4 or 5 bars identical in range give or take. How could you make an assessment of the order flow, absorbing or distributing without a key element of market psychology present, the CLOSE regardless of time frames. For me the OPEN is useless, even if a gap the psychology of market conditions is present in the close.

 

I don't think a conclusion can be reached regarding order flow, accumulation or distribution from the closing price of an intraday bar. If we are talking about a daily bar, or a weekly bar, then I am more inclined to accept that.

 

For someone to accept that the close of an intraday bar, be it a 5m, a 30m, or whatever, has significance, then he must also accept that the market places significance on that time.

 

I do feel that the first hour of trading, from 9:30 to 10:30, can be isolated and examined, in such a way that reasonable conclusions may be drawn about the state of the market that day. So, for me 10:30 is actually an important time to assess the first hour of trading.

 

But say you are watching a 30 minute chart, and at 1:00pm you notice that the close of the bar is near the lows. You are looking to short, but you wanted to wait for the bar to close near the lows. This gives you some validation or confirmation. This implies that the market (meaning other traders) view this particular time (1:00pm, or generally, every half hour) as an important time. It also implies that the 12:30 to 1:00 "window" of the market is more important to you than the 12:25 to 12:55 window, even though they are both half an hour. Also implied is that you are not so concerned with what happens from 1:00 to 1:05, since a 30 minute bar starting at 12:35 will be closing then. Finally, it's implied that you do not care if the market rallies strongly from 12:50 to 12:55, as long as it closes low AT 1:00. Not a second before, not a second after.

 

It follows then, that you are very concerned, ultimately, with one single quote: the last traded price at each half hour every day, or at least how it relates to the previous quote, and perhaps the high and low of that period. There's nothing wrong with that ultimately IMO, it's just the reality of accepting the closing price of an intraday bar as significant in some way.

 

If a trader believes that the market's goal is to get price to a certain place at a certain exact time during the day, then it follows that the closing price of an intraday bar will be significant to that trader. If a trader does not believe that, then why does he care about a snapshot of a price at an arbitrary time?

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For someone to accept that the close of an intraday bar, be it a 5m, a 30m, or whatever, has significance, then he must also accept that the market places significance on that time.

 

not necessarily so. If the trader thinks 5min bars are better than 6min bars then yes - the trader is likely to be deluding themselves, however it can still be a more visual representation that suits the system they are trading, with little relevance to what the market is thinking, as it provides a visual measure to use, or a way to trigger a trade setup.

 

I do feel that the first hour of trading, from 9:30 to 10:30, can be isolated and examined, in such a way that reasonable conclusions may be drawn about the state of the market that day. So, for me 10:30 is actually an important time to assess the first hour of trading.

 

doesn't this go against what you just said above.....and I guess this is what you are getting at, it is more important to understand the context of what is happening based on your designated time frame - for trade lengths - rather than bar lengths. This is the setup, the trigger may be the bar close - or previous bar low/high ---- which is just as arbitrary.

 

But say you are watching a 30 minute chart, and at 1:00pm you notice that the close of the bar is near the lows. You are looking to short, but you wanted to wait for the bar to close near the lows. This gives you some validation or confirmation. This implies that the market (meaning other traders) view this particular time (1:00pm, or generally, every half hour) as an important time. It also implies that the 12:30 to 1:00 "window" of the market is more important to you than the 12:25 to 12:55 window, even though they are both half an hour. Also implied is that you are not so concerned with what happens from 1:00 to 1:05, since a 30 minute bar starting at 12:35 will be closing then. Finally, it's implied that you do not care if the market rallies strongly from 12:50 to 12:55, as long as it closes low AT 1:00. Not a second before, not a second after.

 

It follows then, that you are very concerned, ultimately, with one single quote: the last traded price at each half hour every day, or at least how it relates to the previous quote, and perhaps the high and low of that period. There's nothing wrong with that ultimately IMO, it's just the reality of accepting the closing price of an intraday bar as significant in some way.

 

If a trader believes that the market's goal is to get price to a certain place at a certain exact time during the day, then it follows that the closing price of an intraday bar will be significant to that trader. If a trader does not believe that, then why does he care about a snapshot of a price at an arbitrary time?

 

it just provides a trigger - the rest is a setup.

Each bar is insignificant in itself but together they form the flow/the pattern/the mood of the market, however if you say you want to go short (based on some rationale/reasoning/setup), then you can either go short immediately and just accept it, OR you could wait for some trigger of confirmation your setup idea might be correct. This confirmation might be arbitrary, but it still might be better (or not :)) than a random entry......assuming of course that you are trying to get into a trade idea with the smallest possible risk, and to have that trade have a high likelihood of immediately going for you.

 

Many of the support and resistance levels could be argued to be just as arbitrary, and yet you still need a trigger unless you just have prices sitting waiting to go......;)

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...........................................................

Each bar is insignificant in itself but together they form the flow/the pattern/the mood of the market,...........................................................

 

Many of the support and resistance levels could be argued to be just as arbitrary, and yet you still need a trigger unless you just have prices sitting waiting to go......;)

 

gm Siuya,

 

The bars form the orderflow because The Trader creates them from orderflow in the first place.

 

The price moves more or less diagonally across our screen and from time to time

it intersects with horizontal zones representing supply and demand ... this is the sum total of my 15 year learning experience.

 

If we were having this conversation 10 or 12 twelve years ago, I would have offered a more complicated analysis of trading.

But in the search for a profitable trading style I have gradually reduced myself to the simplicity of the statement above.

 

I think that the biggest enemy within ourselves when looking at the screen is delusion ..self delusion ... and I do not mean this in an unkind spirit.

The enemy of delusion is simplicity [ well it is one of the enemies] and therefore the less moving parts that I permit myself to look at and the less opinions and thoughts I hold concerning orderflow, then the less likely I am to trip over my own shoe laces.

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Just to push on with this conversation for bit ... and then I will shut up and go away.

 

If I were using time bars and the price flow became snagged on a supply/demand zone, I would then need to maintain a running calculation of the number of contracts from the time the price became snagged, which was probably in the middle of a bar.

 

Whilst I am staggering under the burden of doing this, I am not paying attention to the only thing that matters to me ...Price

 

How many times have we all made the correct analysis of what is going to happen next, only to find that some large MOs have been fired into the arena and price has taken off without us being onboard.

Conversely when we stuff-up, we are always on board, because we are always filled.

 

Well this happened to me once too often and I vowed that I must always watch the price ... nothing must distract me from watching price.

 

This single decision marked the turning point in my trading because it forced me back beyond the bars and into the orderflow

Edited by johnw

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I don't think a conclusion can be reached regarding order flow, accumulation or distribution from the closing price of an intraday bar. If we are talking about a daily bar, or a weekly bar, then I am more inclined to accept that.

 

For someone to accept that the close of an intraday bar, be it a 5m, a 30m, or whatever, has significance, then he must also accept that the market places significance on that time.

 

I do feel that the first hour of trading, from 9:30 to 10:30, can be isolated and examined, in such a way that reasonable conclusions may be drawn about the state of the market that day. So, for me 10:30 is actually an important time to assess the first hour of trading.

 

But say you are watching a 30 minute chart, and at 1:00pm you notice that the close of the bar is near the lows. You are looking to short, but you wanted to wait for the bar to close near the lows. This gives you some validation or confirmation. This implies that the market (meaning other traders) view this particular time (1:00pm, or generally, every half hour) as an important time. It also implies that the 12:30 to 1:00 "window" of the market is more important to you than the 12:25 to 12:55 window, even though they are both half an hour. Also implied is that you are not so concerned with what happens from 1:00 to 1:05, since a 30 minute bar starting at 12:35 will be closing then. Finally, it's implied that you do not care if the market rallies strongly from 12:50 to 12:55, as long as it closes low AT 1:00. Not a second before, not a second after.

 

It follows then, that you are very concerned, ultimately, with one single quote: the last traded price at each half hour every day, or at least how it relates to the previous quote, and perhaps the high and low of that period. There's nothing wrong with that ultimately IMO, it's just the reality of accepting the closing price of an intraday bar as significant in some way.

 

If a trader believes that the market's goal is to get price to a certain place at a certain exact time during the day, then it follows that the closing price of an intraday bar will be significant to that trader. If a trader does not believe that, then why does he care about a snapshot of a price at an arbitrary time?

 

You have made a strong case, both the price players and time players are irrelevant at the intraday level, But it is also these both types of players which make the entire picture. The Long term players are there always as the makers of the market manipulate the structure to satisfy their desired positions to acquire. BUT even those guys are TIME players just in a macro sense. And this can be seen when many of them have the same view on the larger time frames. Intraday is a suckers game no doubt. Thanks for your reply Josh :)

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    • Date : 14th October 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th October 2019.No-deal Brexit risks are looking more real than ever, with reports suggesting that talks will officially break down this week ahead of the upcoming EU summit on 17 and 18 October. Elsewhere, further US data and Fedspeak could provide more clues about the possibility of a Fed rate cut. Tuesday – 15 October 2019 Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – September’s Chinese CPI is seen unchanged at 0.7% while the PPI figure is expected to decline further to -1.2%. The overall reading for CPI is estimated to post a gain up to 2.9% y/y. ILO & Average Earnings Index 3m/y (GBP, GMT 08:30) – UK Earnings with the bonus-excluded figure are expected to slip to 3.7% y/y in the three months to August, down from 3.8%y/y. UK ILO unemployment is expected steady at 3.8%, which was the lowest rate seen since December 1974. ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Economic Sentiment for October is projected at -27 from the -22.5 seen last month, as the current conditions indicator for Germany turned negative. The overall Eurozone reading though expected to declne further to -33.0 slightly from -22.4. A lower than expected outcome, ties in with the stagnation in market sentiment at the start of the month. Consumer Price Index (NZD, GMT 21:45) – One of the most important figures for FX markets, the y/y CPI for Q3 is expected to come out at 1.4%, compared to 1.7% in the previous quarter. Wednesday – 16 October 2019 Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The UK CPI is expected to rebound to a 1.8% y/y rate in September after dipping to 1.7% in August from 2.1% in July. Weakness in sterling from year-go levels should impact some offset to disinflationary forces. Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The Euro Area CPI is expected to be confirmed at just 0.9% y/y in the final release for September, although the deceleration in the headline rate over the month was largely due to base effects from energy prices, with core inflation actually moving up to 1.0% y/y from 0.9% y/y in August. Consumer Price Index (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The Canadian CPI index is expected to have increased to 2%y/y compared to 1.9%y/y in August. The core CPI measures remained near 2.0%. Retail Sales (USD, GMT 12:30) – Retail Sales are an important determinant of consumer spending thus making it a leading indicator for overall economic growth. Consensus expectations suggest that we should have increased by 0.2% in September, for both the retail sales headline and the ex-auto figure, following a 0.4% August headline rise with a flat ex-auto figure. Fedspeak: Fed Brainard (USD, GMT 19:00) Thursday – 17 October 2019 European Council Summit on Brexit Employment Data (AUD, GMT 01:30) – While the Unemployment Rate is projected to have flipped at 5.3% in September, Employment change is expected to have eased, increasing by 10K compared to 34.7K last month. Retail Sales ex Fuel (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Retail Sales in the UK are anticipated to increase in September, reaching 3.0% on a y/y basis, and 0.5% on a m/m basis, from the 2.7% and -0.2% respectively Housing Data and Building Permits (USD, GMT 12:30) – Housing starts should drop back to a 1.282 mln pace in September, after a sharp rise to a 1.364 mln clip in August with the help of lower mortgage rates. Permits similarly are expected to slow to 1.370 mln in September, after popping to 1.425 mln in September. Permits have shown a solid growth path into Q3 despite a July starts set-back. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Philly Fed index is seen falling to 7.0 from 12.0 in September, versus a 1-year high of 21.8 in July and a 33-month low of -4.1 in February. The late-September producer sentiment surveys deteriorated significantly after firmness in the early-September reports, and the early-October data will be closely scrutinized to see if this pull-back continued. The “soft data” surveys are at risk of a possible impact from the UAW-GM strike, alongside the ongoing headwind from troubles abroad. Fedspeak: Fed Bowman and Fed Williams (USD, GMT 18:00 and 20:20) Friday – 18 October 2019 European Council Summit on Brexit China Gross Domestic Product (CNY, GMT 02:00)- Chinese GDP is projected to see additional moderation to a 6.1% y/y pace in Q3, from 6.2% in Q2. Industrial Production and Retail Sales (CNY, GMT 02:00) – The September industrial production is forecast at 4.5% y/y from 4.4% previously, while September retail sales likely improved to 7.7% y/y from 7.5%. Fedspeak: Fed Kaplan and Fed Clarida (USD, GMT 15:00 and 15:30) Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • This should really be very easy, but I can't find an article or video to walk me through it. I picked 20 ticker symbols where the stocks are in a tight trading range. I got them all into one list I call "Channel". I'd like to add several indicators that apply to all, such as MACD, volume, 3 moving averages. Then I'd like to scroll through the list, adding trendlines, or horizontal lines to mark the top & bottom of the price channel for each. Then set an alarm for a breakout in each direction that indicates a breakout. Could you point me to an article or video that walks me through how to do this? ...or give me the steps? Thank you, RichardV2, Experienced stock trader back before the Internet was invented.😁
    • The Economic Proscription of U.S. Farmers by China Maybe Forever   Similar to a black eye on the face, it’s placing an indelible imprint. The retaliatory levies by China over U.S. commodity producers, such as soybeans, which seem to be forever. The moment such happens for the market it becomes irreversible.   It’s a dread numerous farmers from North Dakota to Mississippi have recognized for as far back as last year. They worry that they’ve put millions in soybean development on account of China. Since Chinese focus is now transferred towards Brazil rather, that market might be gone forever.   Once the confidence merchants have in the U.S. declines as a steady provider because of the trade dispute, the more vital its important for them to support and further broaden other avenues.   The developing danger for American agribusiness presently is that a great part of the piece of the overall industry lost throughout the year will be hard or difficult to win back at any point shortly, the Boston Consulting Group said in a detailed analysis discharged on Wednesday.   This is for the most part because of long term contracts that are regularly recorded among purchasers and sellers, contingent upon the item. The lesson from the analysis shows that U.S. farmers need to turn out to be less reliant on China, and simply trust in the best concerning those customers organizing a rebound sooner or later.   For the time being, China is going to Australia, Brazil, New Zealand, Russia, and also for its domestic producers as an option in contrast to American developed crops and animal proteins.   From the detailed analysis: “The risk that U.S. agribusinesses may for all time lose foreign market share of the overall industry isn’t only hypothetical. In past trade disputes, for example, one with China including beef, the US has not recaptured its lost share. As a result of the increase of U.S. crops and food materials more costly than other choices, high duties bring down the price to merchants who plan to expand. Also, the fewer confidence merchants have in the US as a steady provider, in perspective on the potential for future trade disputes, the more important it progresses toward becoming for them to support and further expand. After some time, merchants could loosen up complex associations with suppliers from the U.S.”   China Receives Blames for the Pressure And this is so because China is important to American farmers. China purchased $19.5 billion in U.S. agricultural items as of 2017, representing 14% of exports of farm produce, in light of BCS analysis. In July 2018, China slammed a 25% levy on U.S. agricultural items.   Exports at that point declined by an incredible 53% for the year. While exports to China have declined also for this year, over past years free fall.   There is another motivation behind why some China customers may not come back to the U.S. China is extending its very own crop acreage, particularly for soybeans. After some time, China will turn out to be progressively independent. Except if request increases generously, China will purchase its very own soybeans, regulating export development and under control in any case.   “Individuals in the business were in a condition of cheerfulness, believing that a bargain would soon be reached,” says Michael McAdoo, associate, and related executive for BCS in Montreal. “Our analysis demonstrates that regardless of whether there is a bargain, there is worry that a similar volume won’t return. They need to try different markets,” he declared.   Source: https://learn2.trade 
    • Trade Dispute Responsible for China’s Overwhelming Gold Purchase Rate   China has included more than 100 tons of gold to its stores since it continued purchasing in December, fortifying its position as one of the significant authority collectors as national banks load up on the valuable metal.   The People’s Bank of China grabbed progressively gold a month ago, raising reserves to 62.64 million ounces in September from 62.45 million in August, as per information on its site. In tonnage terms, the most recent inflow sums 5.9 tons and comes in as an expansion of about 99.8 tons over the earlier nine months.   Bullion hit the most noteworthy in over six years in September as more slow development, the trade dispute and rate reductions prodded financial specialist request. National banks have been significant purchasers as well, particularly in developing markets. Administrative demands will probably proceed as protectionist strategies and geopolitical concerns add to the request, as forecasted by Suki Cooper, the valuable metals investigator at Standard Chartered Bank.   “With the stressed partnerships with the U.S., China requires support against its enormous possessions of the dollar, and gold serves that capacity,” said Howie Lee, a financial specialist at Singapore-based Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. “As China turns into a superpower in its very own right, I anticipate progressively gold-purchases.”   China’s High Gold Appetite The PBOC’s continuos running of bullion-purchasing has come against the difficult setting of the trade dispute with the U.S. furthermore, a stamped lull in development at home. While high-level discussions are set to continue in Washington this week, Chinese authorities are flagging they’re progressively hesitant to consent to an expansive bargain.   Spot gold spiked to as much as 0.4% to $1,511.31 an ounce on Monday and exchanged at $1,505.84 in early London exchange. While the value declined 3.2% in September, they remain high at 17% this year. The PBOC information was discharged at the end of the week. Alongside China, Russia has additionally been including generous amounts of bullion. In the initial half-year, national banks overall got 374.1 tons, supporting the overall gold request to a three-year high, the World Gold Council declared.   While a tenth straight month of amassing, shows an unfaltering purchasing trend for the PBOC, China has in the past gone for significant stretches without uncovering moves for its gold possessions. At the point the national bank declared a 57% bounce in savings to 53.3 million ounces in mid-2015, that was the first update in quite a while.   Source: https://learn2.trade   
    • GBPJPY Reverses Its Sell-Off Around the Level at 130.75  OCTOBER 9, 2019  Azeez Mustapha  No Comments   GBPJPY Price Analysis – October 9 In the prior session, the pair closed lower for the second day in a row, but currently, the GBPJPY displays a weakness further downside of the pair while retaining its wider medium-term outlook by temporal reversal on the level at 130.75.   Key Levels Resistance Levels: 148.66, 137.80, 135.774 Support Levels: 130.75, 128.68, 126.54   GBPJPY Long term Trend: Bearish In the bigger picture, the GBPJPY consolidation structure is still forming from the technical support zone on the level at 126.54 low.   A further upward move may be recorded towards the level at 146.57 and 148.66 in an extension where its resistance is glaring before completing the structure. However, the overall trend remains bearish while displaying an intact downtrend in the medium and long-term.   GBPJPY Short term Trend: Bearish On the 4-hour time frame, its price is trading narrowly between the moving average 5 and 13 close to the key technical support level at 130.44.   As it is presently, the intraday bias in GBPJPY remains on the downside at this point where a corrective rebound from the level at 126.54 low should have completed. Meanwhile, its 4-hour RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness.   Source: https://learn2.trade 
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