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mohsinqureshii

Gold Bullish or Bearish

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We interrupt this busy gold trading thread with some golden spam

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-05/gs-gold-report-return-fear-hedge-pdf

 

Quote

Be Afraid of Getting Out

While we disagree with the concept of Gold as a valid  fear hedge, we do not disagree that market participants view it as such. Our point is merely that Gold, an imperfect hedge  for almost every issue concerning a lack of faith in human judgment, is a poor hedge for short term "flights to safety" or "fear hedging" simply because it is not a large  market.

...

Gold: Not Perfect, but Perfect for You

In a world where there are custom financial hedges made for every specific risk and marketed in ETF form, there is only one generalist product that covers risk in all foibles of human kind making those instruments of mass destruction., Gold. We'd rather  be 70% hedged against everything than 100% hedged against a "nikkei rally in italian bond  terms" using some triple vol etf.

Investing in Pet Rocks is Dumb

We also strongly disagree with any characterization of gold as an "investment". Investments are vehicles in which one expects a rate of return. The investment community should not consider gold as an investment any more than it considers money an investment.  Investments offer a potential return based on value added to raw materials or machines used.   

Suggested Gold Holding Time Frame: Do you really have to ask?

Gold is a hedge against paper FIAT debasement, and as such it should be held as long  as one  holds, earns, or spends, paper currency. The holding period is forever. The percentage held in gold is the variable.

Gold is also a trade-able asset and thus can be a wealth creator. We believe every bank that touts gold as a safety mechanism knows this and trades gold counter the momentum types.

Barbarous Relic or  Timeless Store of Wealth? YES

So for our 2 cents: Gold is not an investment. Gold is not a hedge against fear or a flight to safety, gold is not to be treated as a reliable hedge against stock market corrections. Gold is a hedge against protracted bear markets  that are underpinned by FIAT debasement damaging corporate earnings. ... Finally, Gold is not officially money. That is to say gold is not money by FIAT (order), but is de-facto money .... It is also the only universally accepted means of exchange across nation-state borders. It is a store of wealth

Golds is money that is all. Gold is not currency again... yet

 

 

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another interruption in this busy thread...

If you started in the 1990’s  prophesizing over and over again about a massive build up, and then crack up collapse, of fake ‘systemics’ ...  and if the ruin part didn’t happen yet. would you be ‘wrong’ ?
Here’s an example https://usawatchdog.com/trend-is-clear-rapid-decline-of-world-economy-egon-von-greyerz/
Is he wrong?

...


And what if you started prophesizing that this time gold may not ‘save you’ like it has in past ‘global’ implosions? Would you be wrong?
 

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Currently, it is bullish in fact The 70s were an amazing time for gold and the mining stocks, as they went on a mega bull run and generated astronomical returns while the stock market floundered. However, by 1980, the price of gold peaked at over $800 per ounce and then entered a 20-year bear market.

From 2001-2011, gold went ballistic again, going from $250 per ounce to a peak price of $1,900 by the late summer of 2011. Most investors know what happened since then - gold collapsed and has spent the last 5 years in the $1,200-$1,300 range (with a brief dip to $1,050-$1,100 back in 2015).

With the weakness in the sector last fall, many wondered if gold was about to fall back to $1,100, or worse, hit triple digits.

In fact, several months ago, I was receiving many emails from subscribers and followers, asking me if this might be a repeat of 1980-2000, which would make this only year 7 of a 20-year bear market.

Just the thought of that! What an incredibly sinking feeling for whatever bulls that remained at the time. There seemed to be a real fear of this possibility.

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