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mohsinqureshii

Gold Bullish or Bearish

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Hi Ammeo,

What do you think has driven Gold up from 1340 to 1475.?

I dont know .

But when I look at the market I see Asian pushes up the price and then for the rest of the 24 hr day , the price seems to go sideways..

Who do you think is buying.....besides MMS and zdo?

regards

bobc

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For all of recent memory, the price of precious metals has been determined in the paper marketplace (e.g., COMEX; LBMA). That may now be changing.

 

...someone theorized this whole sell down ...which may not be over by any stretch... is to entice holders of the physicals to spread arb (ie exchange/dishoard their long physicals for long paper pm’s)

 

Anyone buying physicals right now ?… premiums over spot are frkn astounding!… gives some credence to that theory…

 

 

...

 

:off topc: re "That may now be changing"

"That" has a long way to go before it really changes. Using post counts as an estimate, the percentage of posts that address gold in terms of dollars (or one's local fiat) runs at around 99.99%... "That" will not really have changed until it shifts to a preponderance of posters really concieving of it and communicating about fiats in terms of gold... right now, most literally can't even conceive of such...gold bugs or not...

We now return you to your regularly scheduled posting

Edited by zdo

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We now return you to your regularly scheduled posting

 

Some Asian markets + my SA market were closed today.Workers Day

Waste of makeup day.

Some technicals....

Gold has closed the big gap of two weeks ago and retraced about 60%

Now its going sideways with a nice pennant forming.... see attached

The breakout should be UP

 

THE TREND REMAINS UP.

Its a positive Lunar green period.

Big buyers somewhere.

QE continues

There is a big shortage of physical Gold.There is a waiting list for Kruger Rands in SA

 

BUT

I am nervous

The pennant shows lower highs

The stars will fall on our heads from the 5th -7th May.No discussion will be entered into.

So I will quietly close my long position until the 7th May.

regards bobc

Gold_pennant.png.844798c30eb91198b0628ce0fa784017.png

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Goldman is buying ..... drinks.

 

Celebrating the drop, the short cover rally and the further drop to come.

 

I will agree..read a report today Citi predicting another dip in Gold..i may short it come the 1500 level.......

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Goldman is buying! Who do you think engineered this temporary dip in prices? ;)

 

MMS

 

Its also upon the demand, Gold's current demand is low and everyone expected this dip for a long time after such a long range market , the bigger chance of getting out of this range was breaking the support..

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Gold Price Recovery Dampens Demand

 

The gold price recovery is interestingly not carrying over into the gold producing stocks. In spite of gold’s jump their profits have not been showing this. The gold producer GoldCorp's stock rose last week and this attracted a lot of attention from investors. Nonetheless, it is still below the 30bar EMA and unfortunately for bullish investors, it is on a downtrend.

 

How to Trade the Gold Recovery

I will be placing puts on GoldCorp and I am looking at any point above $29 as an entry for an end of the week expiration.

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I will agree..read a report today Citi predicting another dip in Gold..i may short it come the 1500 level.......

 

Thanks for sharing that Ammeo. But could you possibly give me a link to this Citi report?

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Gold has been rising after the European Central Bank (ECB) made the decision to cut the interest rate to 0.5% after it stayed 0.75% for 10 months. Additionally, ECB President Mario Draghi stated that the central bank is technically ready for negative deposit rates.

 

Investors are now going to pour more money on the precious metal since the interest rates are lower. There has already been an increased demand for the yellow metal after prices fell.

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......

Investors are now going to pour more money on the precious metal since the interest rates are lower. There has already been an increased demand for the yellow metal after prices fell.

Pour money into PM's because of a 1/4 rate cut. :doh:

 

That is your hope.

 

Even after the corrective retracement off the April 16th bottom Gold still ended the month of April down almost -8%.

 

When does the pouring begin?

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If the pms_fiat.jpg (1st attachment below) means nothing to you, then the pms_fiat.jpg below means nothing to you :roll eyes:

 

 

 

The Chinese have figured out what to do with all their depreciating dollars (see 2nd attachment below)

 

 

 

...

 

 

We are also seeing a rapid decoupling between spot prices and physical prices. In fact, it is quickly getting to the point where the spot price of gold and the spot price of silver are becoming irrelevant.

For example, demand for silver coins has become so intense that some dealers are charging premiums of up to 30 percent over spot price for silver eagles.

That would have been regarded as insane a few years ago, but people are now willing to pay these kinds of premiums. People are recognizing the importance of actually having physical gold and silver in their possession and they are willing to pay a significant premium in order to get it.

We are moving into uncharted territory. The paper gold scam is rapidly coming to an end...

Are We On The Verge Of Witnessing The Death Of The Paper Gold Scam? - BlackListedNews.com

 

I’m am largely getting around this by simply exchanging gold for silver at this point… but the other day I also bought some bags of junk silver with USD and paid a cognitive dissonance level of premium… story maker was mumbling all the way home “are you fkn crazy?”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We now return you to your regularly scheduled Vliinberg newsfeeds and ‘the trend is updn’ posting…

 

 

:spam:

Lower the Day Trading Margins for Your Account

pms_fiat.jpg.88a3185b4dd5a32b75fe75cd3de2b697.jpg

CurrencyWars.png.1065947a3b8ab8e78aba0a67cf290a8a.png

Edited by zdo

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sell ! sell ! !

 

 

sell sell !

sell sell !

sell sell ! sell sell !

sell sell !

 

First the astro

Tomorrow is New moon. Markets weaken 2-3 days after New moon

Tomorrow is a Solar eclipse ,which usually means a change in trend. :helloooo:

 

Now the technicals

The short term trend remains UP

The market is going sideways....it looks like Distribution.

The attached chart shows lower highs and higher lows..... thats a pennant forming.

It can break either way !!!!!!!!!!!! :missy:

 

Now the fundementals MY VERSION :crap:

The Germans want their New York Gold returned to Frankfurt.

And New York dont have it??? :confused:

There is a shortage of physical Gold

Asia is buying

There is still strength in the market. :roll eyes:

 

Now my gut feel ..... the losers method :2c:

I will sell SHORT 5 contracts on Monday, subject to Asia trade closing lower.

Looks like I'm going with the Astro.

 

regards

bobc

Gold.png.d4ffeba036f6a5dafea24c9f43f3b4f8.png

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If the pms_fiat.jpg (1st attachment below) means nothing to you, then the pms_fiat.jpg below means nothing to you :roll eyes:

 

 

 

The Chinese have figured out what to do with all their depreciating dollars (see 2nd attachment below)

 

 

 

...

 

 

 

Are We On The Verge Of Witnessing The Death Of The Paper Gold Scam? - BlackListedNews.com

 

Im am largely getting around this by simply exchanging gold for silver at this point but the other day I also bought some bags of junk silver with USD and paid a cognitive dissonance level of premium story maker was mumbling all the way home are you fkn crazy?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We now return you to your regularly scheduled Vliinberg newsfeeds and the trend is updn posting

 

 

:spam:

Lower the Day Trading Margins for Your Account

 

Haha, I like that currency wars, are we winning. Funny.

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thx. bobc

fwiw May12 - ~16 "the astro" opens some possibilities that trading just about everything will be fun :)

 

Hi zdo

Correct

I do believe that the viibrtions (excitability) caused by astro affect big markets more.

There are more participants. So Gold might just go sideways while the Dow moves down strongly.I also believe you cant use astro on its own as a trading signal.You need other info.

I actually think you know all this and pose your comments as a sort of test,never quite disclosing your own trading methods.

kind regards

bobc

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Don't you people think it's about time to teach us the basics of your "astromental" analysis, so that this layman can have an idea of what you are saying?

 

BTW of an eclipse, the sun is up and shining here, Bob ! But it is still 9:45.

 

Overall agree we might still go below 1400 : -dmi above, ema 21 and 1485 level holding .

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Oh yeah!

 

:cheers:

 

Maybe even before the day is done.

 

I did not want to SELL short and hold the position over the weekend.

My market closes in 45minutes.

I have missed a big move :crap:

No prawns and smoked salmon this weekend ;)

 

Decisions, Decisions ?

OK ...Reduce size to 2 contracts and sell short now..

regards

bobc

 

PS Sun Trader , where did you get that smart little Icon?

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Don't you people think it's about time to teach us the basics of your "astromental" analysis, so that this layman can have an idea of what you are saying?

Kuokam, I hear you but there are almost as many variations on astro wk as there are on technical wk in trading. I couldn’t teach "astromental", for one, because there are so many "astromentals". For two, I can’t teach period. On TL I think I have less than 20 posts on the subject…

In essence, you would need teach yourself the basics of your "astromentals" – finding those, if any, that speak to you and provide actionable information. You may be attracted to the ‘astros’ resonance with the ‘neural nets’… you may be attracted to ‘astros’ resonance with (and sufficientlyupsetting) the 'fluid nets', etc etc etc etc etc etc…

No matter which ways you master in astro trading , imo, ultimately you’re only learning additional ways of how to do summations of cycles… and the art is to learn how many degrees to lead… if you don’t have a deep passion for it, then just stay a layman – wtf is a layman anyways ? :)

 

Re disclosure: There are some astro methods that I use but don’t discuss… but they are horary, for personal applications, not for projecting possible collective actions. I am personally less curious in astro than in the past and even then my interests were in the developmental symbolism of the zodiac and then jumped to the long term, more esoteric cycles – galactic astro , instead of planetary , etc. etc. – completely skipping traditional, conventional, personality, etc. and astro's for and about the current masses.

 

Back in the early 90’s, I was blessed with a friendship with a trader who specialized in astro for his trading and so was also blessed with watching the reality of astro trading in action … I learned that as far as CIT goes, the aspects, etc. correctly identify around 20 out of the next 3 trend changes ;)… I get info feeds from passionate astro traders almost daily. This particular ‘May 14’ aspect I was yammering about is founded in Mars 180 Rahu

 

I think bobc uses a high end astro trading program. You could probably PM him and get details. I was just acknowledging, lightly engaging, and appreciating his astro talking. If no one does that then he will probably just go away… and if he goes away , I would miss him and his unique input.

 

I think posters should post about what they are ‘working’ on improving at the moment. For example, the ‘contrarian’ fx, etc. position trades I’ve been posting about lately... completely out of my wheel house. My PM trades are long term trades based on fundamentals – a type of trading that has also always been even more foreign to me. I was blessed to receive excellent advice in long term pm’s long ago… and ‘lucky’ enough to apply it rather assiduously… but that doesn’t mean I am a master at fundamental trading, by any means…

 

All the best,

zdo

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I want to add a 4th dimension to my tools .... the GROUP MIND.

And this will open another can of worms.More snide remarks on top of the Full Moon.

The technical trader will say every thing is shown on the chart. Psychology is not required.

The price action trader (Brooks) will say just watch the price.

The fundamentalist will say earnings govern price.

4 members on this thread all agreed that Gold was going down.

What was on their minds?

Heres a nice quote by John Burman...(never heard of him)

"Our thought directions are mostly not our own but come from the group mind -which is itself a product of collective feeling at deeper levels.

That is why suddenly the mood changes and society ( traders ) moves in a new direction."

It requires a Group of people to sell Gold down $32. Why did the mood (trend) change?

 

The media will try and explain this after the event.

 

Our deeper levels are beyond my competence.

 

The Gold market has closed for the weekend.

Asia will open on Sunday night my time.Thats a BIG group.

What are they thinking?

Or am I wrong in this group mind theory.

Is it simply the retailers panicing and selling Gold down , and the big boys (MMS;) )waiting to add to their positions at a lower price. Normal trading activities.There is no group mind.

Comments are welcome.

regards

bobc

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