Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

mohsinqureshii

Gold Bullish or Bearish

Recommended Posts

We just touched a great low last week. My plan is to scalp a couple ticks along the way, with a bullish bias into this week.

 

 

I suppose a bounce continuing is in the cards for the next day or two or longer but I'm waiting for the downtrend to resume before entering again.

5aa711bdb3448_SpotGoldweek250213(DFB).png.99ad1422a6a705ff0b074bc104e22ab3.png

Edited by kuokam

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I dont have a view on gold.......but a friend emailed this through to me on his thoughts....FWIW

 

"something to think about re gold.

 

At the end of every quarter large US funds (those with greater than 100mil under management) have to file at 13F form with the SEC. The funds have 45 days after the end of the quarter to file the 13F. This disclosure from each fund discloses their listed US assets.

 

John Paulson is the world's biggest gold bull. He has over $3.5 billion in the Gold etf (GLD). It constitutes about 20% of his fund holdings. As of the 31st of Dec his holding has not dropped when compared to previous quarters. If gold sees any further weakness and his hand is forced ---- it could get very very messy.

 

Any broad US$ strength could see this happen................"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gold Miners Come Clean on Costs After Lost 6 Years: Commodities

 

Gold Miners Come Clean on Costs After Lost 6 Years: Commodities - Bloomberg

 

"Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX) and Goldcorp Inc. (G), the two biggest producers by market value, have begun reporting “all-in sustaining costs” for the first time. The new measure averaged $941 an ounce between the two companies in the fourth quarter. That’s 50 percent higher than the $626 average so-called cash cost they disclosed in the preceding three months."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sold at 1608 for 30 point profit.

And I am sure I have left some money on the table.

But tomorrow we have a Neptune Venus conjunction which is bad news for Gold and Silver..

So tomorrow could be the high with a big drop ahead into early March..

All the bears... get ready.

regards

bobc

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Gold Miners Come Clean on Costs After Lost 6 Years: Commodities

 

Gold Miners Come Clean on Costs After Lost 6 Years: Commodities - Bloomberg

 

"Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX) and Goldcorp Inc. (G), the two biggest producers by market value, have begun reporting “all-in sustaining costs” for the first time. The new measure averaged $941 an ounce between the two companies in the fourth quarter. That’s 50 percent higher than the $626 average so-called cash cost they disclosed in the preceding three months."

 

Yep - I have been sucked into 'buy the miner' to replicate the metal before.....never trust an accountant - its all smoke and mirrors. :haha: - miners, prospectors and company directors are all above board....:doh:

 

So does this mean - gold is actually more expensive to mine and hence shortages of supply are likely to occur, OR the other numbers from the gold miners about reserves and production cant be believed, OR if you have a view on something, a texas hedge aint the best thing to use.

 

................... :offtopic::offtopic:

Did you see the other article about Jamie Dimon saying Banks have too much capital

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-26/dimon-says-banks-to-have-more-capital-than-they-know-how-to-use.html

 

......somehow in my warped mind i see a lot of this as being related.

Edited by SIUYA

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Gold Miners Come Clean on Costs After Lost 6 Years: Commodities

 

Gold Miners Come Clean on Costs After Lost 6 Years: Commodities - Bloomberg

 

"Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX) and Goldcorp Inc. (G), the two biggest producers by market value, have begun reporting “all-in sustaining costs” for the first time. The new measure averaged $941 an ounce between the two companies in the fourth quarter. That’s 50 percent higher than the $626 average so-called cash cost they disclosed in the preceding three months."

 

Hi SunTrader,

I have always wondered how Barrick, operating in a First world country can have lower costs than South Africa,a third world country.

Goldfield and Anglogold have always reported FULL costs and they have been severely discounted (.But their PEs are still too high.)

I think Barrick is heading for a BIG fall.

regards

bobc

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Yep - I have been sucked into 'buy the miner' to replicate the metal before.....never trust an accountant - its all smoke and mirrors. :haha:

.....

Agree and feel the same (or more so) can be said about the bankers.

 

I read the news but trade off the chart.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi SunTrader,

I have always wondered how Barrick, operating in a First world country can have lower costs than South Africa,a third world country.

Goldfield and Anglogold have always reported FULL costs and they have been severely discounted (.But their PEs are still too high.)

I think Barrick is heading for a BIG fall.

regards

bobc

Could be. I don't follow the miners that closely to have an opinion either way.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Speaking only technically- A bounce off the 1530-1550 support zone could be expected on the weekly chart...i'll wait a week more and see if the trends goes bullish at this suppport- then will take a 3-5 weeks long position in it...Gold is precious anyway afterall..:cheers::cheers:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Speaking only technically- A bounce off the 1530-1550 support zone could be expected on the weekly chart...

Careful. The more price visits a zone the more likely, at some point, that zone will no longer hold.

 

.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gold, however, has been in a trading range since September, and the limits of a trading range can hold for quite some time.

 

You should know by Monday or Tuesday. Don't know if I'd wait for 50.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Gold, however, has been in a trading range since September, ....

 

Oct -2.94%

Nov -0.28%

Dec -2.32%

Jan -0.73%

Feb -5.09%

 

It is clear to me, at least, once again that the range it has been trading in is not a trading range.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
-

Depends on how one defines "trading range":

It depends on how one crop a chart to show their bias.

 

You previously mentioned from high last Sept.

 

This is what it looks like to me, Lower highs, lower lows, lower highs - well you get the picture by now. I hope so anyway:

Gold.thumb.png.7551d7380863ddf1a4e104648b4b6f1f.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

XAU/USD DAILY as of Friday, 01 March, 2013

Wave 4 of moderate (13%) amplitude has crossed a threshold where the probability of a failure is higher. This wave could turn into an impulse wave 1 of opposite trend.

The present wave patterns are:

fast amplitude (8%): bearish wave 1

moderate amplitude (13%): bullish wave 4

Gold / US Dollar is long term Bearish as the 144 days moving average of 1,669.25 is decreasing. The Relative Strength Index is at 35.09 in the neutral territory. The Relative Momentum Index is at 23.05 in the oversold territory. An important indicator for Elliott waves, the Elliott oscillator is at -44.63, in negative territory; this is a bearish sign. An equally important indicator, the STORSI is at 81.09. This value is in the overbought territory.

gold-wave-d.thumb.png.76d2597b0877cc3eda6587fee1b554f4.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
XAU/USD DAILY as of Friday, 01 March, 2013

Wave 4 of moderate (13%) amplitude has crossed a threshold where the probability of a failure is higher. This wave could turn into an impulse wave 1 of opposite trend.

The present wave patterns are:

fast amplitude (8%): bearish wave 1

moderate amplitude (13%): bullish wave 4

Gold / US Dollar is long term Bearish as the 144 days moving average of 1,669.25 is decreasing. The Relative Strength Index is at 35.09 in the neutral territory. The Relative Momentum Index is at 23.05 in the oversold territory. An important indicator for Elliott waves, the Elliott oscillator is at -44.63, in negative territory; this is a bearish sign. An equally important indicator, the STORSI is at 81.09. This value is in the overbought territory.

 

Well autotrader

Thats quite a mouthfull.

I think EW is fantastic,but I struggle to find the waves before the event.

I think you can invest , but you can only TRADE the 5th wave with some certainity

regards

bobc

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It depends on how one crop a chart to show their bias.

 

You previously mentioned from high last Sept.

 

This is what it looks like to me, Lower highs, lower lows, lower highs - well you get the picture by now. I hope so anyway:

 

No bias. An instrument is either trending or ranging. Gold stopped trending in Sep '11. The chart I posted is of that period. You may be referring to some other post when you refer to "last" Sept. Since then it has been bouncing between 1800 and 1535+/-. Each trip from top to bottom within the range may be considered a trend, but it is not the same sort of trend that price is in once it departs from the range, such as the trend beginning in July '11.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
No bias. An instrument is either trending or ranging..

 

Your words, not mine:

 

"Gold, however, has been in a trading range since September."

 

But by your definition any market that is not trading at an alltime high is within its previous range and therefore rangebound.

 

And yet again another lower low today inside your trading range. :roll eyes:

 

Did you ever think others look at other timeframes besides .... forever.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Your words, not mine:

 

"Gold, however, has been in a trading range since September."

 

But by your definition any market that is not trading at an alltime high is within its previous range and therefore rangebound.

 

And yet again another lower low today inside your trading range. :roll eyes:

 

Did you ever think others look at other timeframes besides .... forever.

 

But I did not say "last" September. My mistake. I apologize.

 

And, no, something that isn't an an all-time high isn't necessarily ranging. It can reverse and begin a downtrend. Look at '00-'02. But if price bounces up and down repeatedly within a range, then it's range-bound, i.e., it's bound by the upper and lower limit of the range. Gold has been bouncing up and down in a range for nearly two years.

 

As for a lower low today, that depends on what it is lower than. It has yet to reach the last swing low on the daily chart.

 

As to whether or not others look at different intervals and timeframes, of course. But it pays to know where and when price is most likely to reverse. Some people like to be in and out, in and out. I'd rather short at resistance or buy at support and just hold it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Muir

On a 2 year chart, gold definitely has been in a trading range, each intermediate swing very tradable.

For 6 months SPX/GC or whatever, $INDU/GDL (or if you use stockcharts, I believe it's it's a colon, e.g. $DOW:GOLD) has been on a beautiful unbroken up trendline.

Last 3 days have been frustrating, as GLD (or GC or MGC) has shown just unbelievable weakness, just as it looked like it could break the trendline on the intermarket charts.

If gold can not rally now with the sequester upon us....

 

GC has been tradable, it's the timeframe used, so yes, anyone that looks at a 2 year chart will see a trading range, pull out further and you can see when the uptrend was broken from 09, pull in and I can see 3 or 4 trends broken hinges...

 

But, yes, it is close the lower range of the 2 year trading range, but seems anemic.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
But I did not say "last" September. My mistake. I apologize.

 

And, no, something that isn't an an all-time high isn't ......

A lower low is just that.

 

If we can't agree on that basic point.... time to move on.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
A lower low is just that.

 

If we can't agree on that basic point.... time to move on.

 

Depends on what it's lower than. If lower than the previous day, yes, though that's not necessarily important. If it bounces off support, go long. If it doesn't, keep your short, assuming you went short in October, or at least November.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Depends on what it's lower than. If lower than the previous day, yes, though that's not necessarily important. If it bounces off support, go long. If it doesn't, keep your short, assuming you went short in October, or at least November.

I don't look at everything in the markets through a wyckoff prism.

 

On a daily basis or higher - a lower low (and/or lower high) is important by itself. But what is even more important are lower lowS (and lower highS) and if you like LL/LH pivots since the alltime highs.

 

This I only mention in regards to the trend - not whether or not to go long or short.

 

There are other things (time, price, pattern) I look to to determine trend and also again whether or not and where to enter a trade.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I don't look at everything in the markets through a wyckoff prism.

 

On a daily basis or higher - a lower low (and/or lower high) is important by itself. But what is even more important are lower lowS (and lower highS) and if you like LL/LH pivots since the alltime highs.

 

This I only mention in regards to the trend - not whether or not to go long or short.

 

There are other things (time, price, pattern) I look to to determine trend and also again whether or not and where to enter a trade.

 

 

Don't you think gold could be forming a HL at point 2, relative to the low at point 1?

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=35076&stc=1&d=1362319017

5aa711c330289_Goldetfdaily.png.1197c250c2c2b16853ad9f1c4626ba03.png

5aa711c335b1b_golddaily.png.546c3c68d0d3dda6de84901182ba3fe1.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Don't you think gold could be forming a HL at point 2, relative to the low at point 1?

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=35076&stc=1&d=1362319017

 

Yes, it's possible. We'll only know in hindsight. The real issue is what, where, when and if are you going to do something about it.

 

Gringo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • How's about other crypto exchanges? Are all they banned in your country or only Binance?
    • Be careful who you blame.   I can tell you one thing for sure.   Effective traders don’t blame others when things start to go wrong.   You can hang onto your tendency to play the victim, or the martyr… but if you want to achieve in trading, you have to be prepared to take responsibility.   People assign reasons to outcomes, whether based on internal or external factors.   When traders face losses, it's common for them to blame bad luck, poor advice, or other external factors, rather than reflecting on their own personal attributes like arrogance, fear, or greed.   This is a challenging lesson to grasp in your trading journey, but one that holds immense value.   This is called attribution theory. Taking responsibility for your actions is the key to improving your trading skills. Pause and ask yourself - What role did I play in my financial decisions?   After all, you were the one who listened to that source, and decided to act on that trade based on the rumour. Attributing results solely to external circumstances is what is known as having an ‘external locus of control’.   It's a concept coined by psychologist Julian Rotter in 1954. A trader with an external locus of control might say, "I made a profit because the markets are currently favourable."   Instead, strive to develop an "internal locus of control" and take ownership of your actions.   Assume that all trading results are within your realm of responsibility and actively seek ways to improve your own behaviour.   This is the fastest route to enhancing your trading abilities. A trader with an internal locus of control might proudly state, "My equity curve is rising because I am a disciplined trader who faithfully follows my trading plan." Author: Louise Bedford Source: https://www.tradinggame.com.au/
    • SELF IMPROVEMENT.   The whole self-help industry began when Dale Carnegie published How to Win Friends and Influence People in 1936. Then came other classics like Think And Grow Rich by Napoleon Hill, Awaken the Giant Within by Tony Robbins toward the end of the century.   Today, teaching people how to improve themselves is a business. A pure ruthless business where some people sell utter bullshit.   There are broke Instagrammers and YouTubers with literally no solid background teaching men how to be attractive to women, how to begin a start-up, how to become successful — most of these guys speaking nothing more than hollow motivational words and cliche stuff. They waste your time. Some of these people who present themselves as hugely successful also give talks and write books.   There are so many books on financial advice, self-improvement, love, etc and some people actually try to read them. They are a waste of time, mostly.   When you start reading a dozen books on finance you realize that they all say the same stuff.   You are not going to live forever in the learning phase. Don't procrastinate by reading bull-shit or the same good knowledge in 10 books. What we ought to do is choose wisely.   Yes. A good book can change your life, given you do what it asks you to do.   All the books I have named up to now are worthy of reading. Tim Ferriss, Simon Sinek, Robert Greene — these guys are worthy of reading. These guys teach what others don't. Their books are unique and actually, come from relevant and successful people.   When Richard Branson writes a book about entrepreneurship, go read it. Every line in that book is said by one of the greatest entrepreneurs of our time.   When a Chinese millionaire( he claims to be) Youtuber who releases a video titled “Why reading books keeps you broke” and a year later another one “My recommendation of books for grand success” you should be wise to tell him to jump from Victoria Falls.   These self-improvement gurus sell you delusions.   They say they have those little tricks that only they know that if you use, everything in your life will be perfect. Those little tricks. We are just “making of a to-do-list before sleeping” away from becoming the next Bill Gates.   There are no little tricks.   There is no success-mantra.   Self-improvement is a trap for 99% of the people. You can't do that unless you are very, very strong.   If you are looking for easy ways, you will only keep wasting your time forgetting that your time on this planet is limited, as alive humans that is.   Also, I feel that people who claim to read like a book a day or promote it are idiots. You retain nothing. When you do read a good book, you read slow, sometimes a whole paragraph, again and again, dwelling on it, trying to internalize its knowledge. You try to understand. You think. It takes time.   It's better to read a good book 10 times than 1000 stupid ones.   So be choosy. Read from the guys who actually know something, not some wannabe ‘influencers’.   Edit: Think And Grow Rich was written as a result of a project assigned to Napoleon Hill by Andrew Carnegie(the 2nd richest man in recent history). He was asked to study the most successful people on the planet and document which characteristics made them great. He did extensive work in studying hundreds of the most successful people of that time. The result was that little book.   Nowadays some people just study Instagram algorithms and think of themselves as a Dale Carnegie or Anthony Robbins. By Nupur Nishant, Quora Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/    
    • there is no avoiding loses to be honest, its just how the market is. you win some and hopefully more, but u do lose some. 
    • $CSCO Cisco Systems stock, nice top of range breakout, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?CSCOSEPN Septerna stock watch for a bottom breakout, good upside price gap
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.