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mohsinqureshii

Gold Bullish or Bearish

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On cnbc.com today:

 

Is the Gold Rush Over?

 

1 Aug 2012 By: Sharon Epperson, Judy Gee

 

Sliding gold coin sales show that retail demand for the actual metal is clearly fading, but dealers and analysts say it is not because investors are less concerned about the financial turmoil around the globe. There's just not the same fervor for the precious metal as in recent years.

 

"This is the first time in our economic history that we have a situation where there is such tremendous economic uncertainty and global fear when gold has not skyrocketed in tandem," said gold dealer Lee Rosenbloom, owner of Plaza 57 Appraisals and Plaza Collectibles in New York.

 

COMEX gold futures [GCCV1 1602.30 -8.20 (-0.51%) ] have declined 9.5 percent, nearly $200, from the 2012 peak near $1,800 an ounce, and prices over the past 12 months are basically flat. As for the physical metal, declining sales in U.S. gold coins — a real-time proxy for retail investment demand — along with a somewhat stagnant gold futures price indicate the frenzy over gold has calmed, but it's certainly not been crushed.

 

 

Sales of gold coins at the U.S. Mint plunged to about 30,000 for one-ounce gold coins in July — that's less than half the number sold in the same month last year and more than six times fewer than at the peak of the financial crisis in 2008.

 

"Coin sales are price sensitive, but there's a bit of a lag effect," explained HSBC precious metals analyst James Steel. Gold prices rose in January and February to the highs of the year and coin demand dropped a few months later due to those high prices, he said.

 

But "the decline in retail coin sales does not necessarily herald a bear market," noted Steel.

 

ConvergEx Group's chief market strategist Nicholas Colas agrees slowing demand for gold coins is not necessarily a negative sign. "Demand which was in fact probably too high in 2008 and 2009 because of worries of the financial crisis has simmered down to a more sustainable rate, reflecting a more structural level of demand that is sustainable and ongoing and one that is healthier ultimately for the gold markets," Colas says.

 

The gold market has witnessed this cycle before. Gold coin sales historically spike in times of uncertainty — most recently during the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the 1999 Y2K scare, and in October 1987, after Black Monday. Once the initial cause of panic levels off, sales return to more normalized levels, Colas says.

 

Yet even without a financial crisis, demand for gold won't just disappear, he said, since it fulfills a role no other commodity or financial asset provides: low correlation to and diversification from other markets.

 

And for retail investors, it's not all about crises or fear. Coin buyers, unlike institutional buyers, aren't usually seeking a "safe-haven" to protect large portfolios, said RBC Capital Markets' precious metals strategist George Gero. Also, he added, "as the economic recovery has weakened, retail investors have had less disposable income to purchase coins."

 

But well-capitalized investors may begin to fill the void.

 

Coin dealers say their clientele is changing. "Previously, we had the general public purchasing gold," Rosenbloom said. "Now our coins are going to less people, however, more sophisticated, big-money investors and buyers."

 

Steel contends physical demand for gold will remain slow and steady. He says the gold market has stabilized, consistently holding above $1,525 an ounce so far this year. "Retail interest from gold buyers may have faded, but has by no means evaporated altogether," he says.

 

As the U.S. presidential election approaches, and if U.S. fiscal problems are front-and-center in the markets once again, Steel says further uncertainty could stimulate gold coin sales. So the precious metals craze may have slowed down, but sliding coin sales don't mean the gold rush is over.

 

-By CNBC's Sharon Epperson

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daily chart turns bullish. Monday's candle will tell where it is going...buy above 1.6000, sell below 1585 :confused:

 

Hi Obsidian

On the 2nd you said if the price moves up to 1597...... sell

Now the price has moved up and you are saying .....buy

Do you actually trade gold?

regards

bobc

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Hi Obsidian

On the 2nd you said if the price moves up to 1597...... sell

Now the price has moved up and you are saying .....buy

Do you actually trade gold?

regards

bobc

 

Hi Bobc,

My thoughts on gold are not very long term as you can see. so price targets may be less or more, relative to everyone's trading style.

 

as for the chart you are referring to: yes I said 1597 is a sell level...I said that when the price was in the box A...right after that the price hit 1599.75 and moved back to 1585.17, box B. maybe that is a small movement for you but for me that is huge.

 

and fyi I trade gold on a managed account. I don't trade gold on my personal account because my account is at Oanda U.S. division, though I buy physical gold for long-term investment purposes.

gold04b.jpg.d1bb960cff2a87d5328184bb97dc880a.jpg

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we are back to the same place which price reversed many times...

I think gold will perform better than the euro...

 

not surprisingly reversed again...

and i was not in front of my computer :doh::crap:

anyway...4H chart is bearish again...need to close above 1606 in order to keep climbing...

key supports: kijun-sen at 1592 and the bottom kumo at 1590...

break below 1590 means next stop is 1581

gold14.thumb.jpg.f28b1dd3146971374139a8bcbcba9234.jpg

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yes to me it looks simple, just one indicator on the chart...anyway today's gold trade:

 

Hi Obsidian

Your chart shows gold making higher lows but your "cloud "is flat. Divergence maybe?

What do you do with this "cloud"?

I understood you buy when price is above the cloud and sell when below.

More....how does your cloud show a pattern beyond the current price?

regards

bobc

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To those interested in a different approach

Tomorrow is New moon.

Expect markets to weaken.

Gold does not follow lunar cycles as good as the S& P because the Gold market is too small. But... dont be long.

regards

bobc

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To those interested in a different approach

Tomorrow is New moon.

Expect markets to weaken.

Gold does not follow lunar cycles as good as the S& P because the Gold market is too small. But... dont be long.

regards

bobc

 

thanks for the info :cool:

my target 1615 was hit now it can go wherever it wants ;)

by the way, heard that soros is buying gold, hmmmm...

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thanks for the info :cool:

my target 1615 was hit now it can go wherever it wants ;)

by the way, heard that soros is buying gold, hmmmm...

 

Hi Obsidian

When Goldman Sachs upgrade a stock from "Hold" to" Buy" ,they have already bought!!!!!!!!!!!

When you hear Soros is buying gold..........................

regards

bobc

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Hi Obsidian

When Goldman Sachs upgrade a stock from "Hold" to" Buy" ,they have already bought!!!!!!!!!!!

When you hear Soros is buying gold..........................

regards

bobc

 

Hi Bobc,

that's a good point :)

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thanks for the info :cool:

my target 1615 was hit now it can go wherever it wants ;)

by the way, heard that soros is buying gold, hmmmm...

 

If Soros is buying target is not 1615.

More like 2015... Probably before 2015 ...

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If Soros is buying target is not 1615.

More like 2015... Probably before 2015 ...

 

Hi jimbo

I see you feel quite strongly about gold going up.

With all the fundamentals against you.......low inflation, a strong dollar, silver going sideways,India slowing, and jewllery demand down.

And technically, big resistance at 1630.

Why do you think gold is going up??:question:

Do you know something the rest of us dont know?

Or is it just gut feel.?

kind regards

bobc

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Hi Obsidian,

Changing the subject:offtopic:

The internet is truly amazing

You are in Thailand and I am in South Africa and we communicate freely.

Fantastic

regards

bobc

 

Hi Bobc,

I couldn't agree more :cool:

 

 

 

 

@Jimbo

Hopes his connections with Chinese are good...

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Gold Bulls Expand as Billionaire Paulson Buys Metal: Commodities

 

Gold Bulls Expand as Billionaire Paulson Buys Metal: Commodities - Bloomberg

 

Gold traders are the most bullish in six weeks as investors boosted their bullion holdings to a record on concern that economic growth is slowing and after billionaires John Paulson and George Soros bought more metal.

 

Fourteen of 26 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to rise next week and six were bearish. A further six were neutral, making the proportion of bulls the highest since July 6. Paulson raised his stake in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest gold-backed exchange-traded product, by 26 percent in the second quarter and Soros more than doubled his holding, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filings showed Aug. 14. Global holdings reached a record on Aug. 10, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

 

.............

 

And what has that done for the price of Gold and the volume that is typical for this time of the year? Not much.

 

Still under long term (past 3 months) resistance.

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