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I have noted this on a number of occasions in the past, but it's always interesting to me to see how the market lines up its structure whether or not it trades those prices again in the current session. For example, right now the midpoint, the first high to see any decent pullback and important long term low volume sit ~40. The market is telling you it's a price which it is interested in...

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Rather then go back to sleep I'll post one example of a pre-position entry

 

On the chart the pre-position entry starts with a relatively wide range candle down just to the right of the ellipse.....this takes price into an area of previous "buying" activity (dark blue band)....the algo pattern exhibits itself (inside the ellipse) and the only other element of the opportunity is time...the initial signal shows itself at 6am, the algo completes at 6:09 (close enough for me)....the process is supposed to provide "breathing room" defined as about 2 points of profit....if we get to that point I stay with it into the open, manage risk and scale out.

 

6:40 is a possible reversal time, so I watch that point and evaluate the action. If the pullback is steep and the tick pattern shows reversal I get out. If not I stay with it and scale out until we reach 10 points.

5aa71118b8200_Pre-positionexample.thumb.PNG.a5e06b252e82aea9326d4721b30a17da.PNG

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Quick chart to show the volume which cam in at 44's earlier, for those who didn't see it

 

This is the chart which showed me that 1344-1344.50 was being aggresively bought with high volume. I use 3 different setups EACH of which were saying get long here.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=29881&stc=1&d=1342199282

2012-07-13_1200_ES_5M_DELTA.thumb.png.3c5496f9d62405fafe0843706db99e22.png

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Here's the 1353 and I'm out. Called for 53's to be hit but can't find the post I said it in ... haha

 

The IBH was a perfect entry if you were late into the long and hold as huge volume supported this move up.

 

Great week - now finished. Time for some R&R

 

Have a great weekend. Next week - should be good even with OEX day.

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This is the chart which showed me that 1344-1344.50 was being aggresively bought with high volume. I use 3 different setups EACH of which were saying get long here.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=29881&stc=1&d=1342199282

 

Thank you for sharing your analysis. Can you please provide info on the type of chart you using for volume? Can I find this on thinkorswim or is this custom built? I am trying to understand how you use this chart.

 

Thank you

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The chart I showed is a 5minute bar chart which has a personally developed custom indicator which tracks upticks and down ticks volume and displays the difference with colors based on the qty of the difference.

 

you can get a more sophisticated indicator in marketdelta software, or other applications which offer that type of functionality. it remains up to you to determine what, if anything, to do with information it provides.

 

the reference to a volume chart I made above was to a normal share bar chart using Tradestation's name, which creates a new bar after 10,000 contracts have been traded, or any number you choose.

 

when making a trading decision, I use the combination of the information provided when they are in agreement, to enter.

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The chart I showed is a 5minute bar chart which has a personally developed custom indicator which tracks upticks and down ticks volume and displays the difference with colors based on the qty of the difference.

 

you can get a more sophisticated indicator in marketdelta software, or other applications which offer that type of functionality. it remains up to you to determine what, if anything, to do with information it provides.

 

the reference to a volume chart I made above was to a normal share bar chart using Tradestation's name, which creates a new bar after 10,000 contracts have been traded, or any number you choose.

 

when making a trading decision, I use the combination of the information provided when they are in agreement, to enter.

 

Thanks for responding

 

So the chart shows the tells you the volume difference between buyers and sellers at each tick?

 

Just to make sure I understand the chart better, you mentioned "This is the chart which showed me that 1344-1344.50 was being aggresively bought with high volume." How do you know this looking at the chart? I am looking at the chart and at 10:05 bar, I see a blue 6449 at 1344.

 

Thank you.

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In my color scheme Light blue (cyan) shows a large difference between the upticks and downtick at that price and time. The difference of 6449 is a very large number of contracts to have on the delta - in fact - it is the largest difference all day. That 10:05 bar had nothing but massive buying on it. Any retrace back to its beginning will be met with more buying.

 

That is the premise of this strategy. You can see that 1344 was touched and was the low of the pullback. But my entry also had confirmation from the buying going on at 10:25. Later - at 10:25 - you can see more aggressive buying coming in at a similar price which is where I went long at 1344.50

 

That was also the first reasonably sized pullback in the price since the open drive which I identified in a posting above that had over 300,000 contracts traded in the first 30 minutes. This is the highest opening 30 minute volume in a long time.

 

Ask yourself - who is trading this much volume? Which direction is the market going?

 

With fuel like this in the market it will continue into a trend up day which it was. What should you do on trend days once identified? Get in. Hold on.

 

Somewhere else in the postings I also said that 1353's were expected as this was the next push up target for me.

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In my color scheme Light blue (cyan) shows a large difference between the upticks and downtick at that price and time. The difference of 6449 is a very large number of contracts to have on the delta - in fact - it is the largest difference all day. That 10:05 bar had nothing but massive buying on it. Any retrace back to its beginning will be met with more buying.

 

Thanks for responding. So your goal was to jump on the trend, to get in, correct? I also, wanted in on the rally yesterday, but I was waiting on a retrace back to R1 pivot, 1349.25. ES not got back to that level. I struggle with jumping on the trend during big trend days up or down.

 

That is the premise of this strategy. You can see that 1344 was touched and was the low of the pullback. But my entry also had confirmation from the buying going on at 10:25. Later - at 10:25 - you can see more aggressive buying coming in at a similar price which is where I went long at 1344.50

 

That was also the first reasonably sized pullback in the price since the open drive which I identified in a posting above that had over 300,000 contracts traded in the first 30 minutes. This is the highest opening 30 minute volume in a long time.

 

Thanks, correct I saw the posting.

 

Ask yourself - who is trading this much volume? Which direction is the market going?

 

With fuel like this in the market it will continue into a trend up day which it was. What should you do on trend days once identified? Get in. Hold on.

 

Somewhere else in the postings I also said that 1353's were expected as this was the next push up target for me.

 

The big institutional is the only buyers to buy with this big volume. Correct me if I am wrong. Market is going up.

 

On trend days, should get in and hold. My only problem I am working on is find a method to getting in. still learning.

 

Thank you for the posting. Do you use volume as your main indicator?

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Over 300K volume 1st 30min mean this is a strong trending day

 

Sizable volume. 1353 - 1354 in sight

 

Thanks for this information. Did you speculate 1353-1354 was in sight yesterday because of possible double top (or resistance) coming from on July 10 on the ES?

 

Thank you

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Thanks for responding. So your goal was to jump on the trend, to get in, correct? I also, wanted in on the rally yesterday, but I was waiting on a retrace back to R1 pivot, 1349.25. ES not got back to that level. I struggle with jumping on the trend during big trend days up or down.

 

That is the premise of this strategy. You can see that 1344 was touched and was the low of the pullback. But my entry also had confirmation from the buying going on at 10:25. Later - at 10:25 - you can see more aggressive buying coming in at a similar price which is where I went long at 1344.50

 

Thanks, correct I saw the posting.

 

 

The big institutional is the only buyers to buy with this big volume. Correct me if I am wrong. Market is going up.

 

On trend days, should get in and hold. My only problem I am working on is find a method to getting in. still learning.

 

Thank you for the posting. Do you use volume as your main indicator?

 

There was four opportunities to enter the buy : 1 ) At the break of the Globex High 1336.75 , 2) at the Triangle breakout 1334 , 3) at the first high probability pullback with the trend at 1338 and 4) at 1340 Key Level. ALL these entries had potential up to the 1347.75 High Volume Spike were the price then retraced back down to the 1344 key level.

 

The vertical up move was predictable after the Jun28 - Jun29 GAP was filled and also the action of the Dollar Index.

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There was four opportunities to enter the buy : 1 ) At the break of the Globex High 1336.75 , 2) at the Triangle breakout 1334 , 3) at the first high probability pullback with the trend at 1338 and 4) at 1340 Key Level. ALL these entries had potential up to the 1347.75 High Volume Spike were the price then retraced back down to the 1344 key level.

 

My trade entry was based on How to Get in After the initial move. I agree that there were other reasons to enter down lower.

 

My earlier long entry was on the 9:20 brief pullback to the 9:15 Buy Zone. But this had a normal profit target so I missed the big push up because I was out with my normal profit on the entry. Take profit for me was at the VWAP.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=29902&stc=1&d=1342353165

 

The trick is to be able to get into moves with shallow pullbacks as those are often the best places for 2nd pushes. Studying 30Min volume can give you a very good heads up as to the likelihood of the day being a trend day in my experience.

 

Volume in all its forms is the only indicator I trust and I find it to be 80% reliable. The other 20% I think is random movement based on arbitrage, buy-sell programs, news etc.

 

Buying the close of the first 5Min bar - or a break above it's high would be an entry choice for me too - based on the large positive volume pushing this move. I would not put my stop a the bottom of the bar - I would put it below the VPOC of the bar (not shown).

2012-07-15_0750_ES_Earlier_Entry.thumb.png.8eeb7b4d92e23b7c9bff0486e819a55c.png

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There was four opportunities to enter the buy : 1 ) At the break of the Globex High 1336.75 , 2) at the Triangle breakout 1334 , 3) at the first high probability pullback with the trend at 1338 and 4) at 1340 Key Level. ALL these entries had potential up to the 1347.75 High Volume Spike were the price then retraced back down to the 1344 key level.

 

The vertical up move was predictable after the Jun28 - Jun29 GAP was filled and also the action of the Dollar Index.

 

Thank you, can you please show the gap and triangle you are referring to?

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The trick is to be able to get into moves with shallow pullbacks as those are often the best places for 2nd pushes.

 

I agree!:) And that's what I am studying to improve my trading.

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I'm not sure if this is appropriate but some of these free webinars can be helpful. I have no affiliation with this vendor and the moderators will delete this post if needed . If you go to this web page

 

Stock Market Trading Training Seminars | Learn2StockTrade.co.uk

 

and go to the " Developing a Trading Methodology using Market Profile and Market Delta Footprints" webinar you will see some explanations of the setups/signals that bakrob99 has been kind enough to post for us. Specifically if you scroll in and begin about 48 minutes into the webinar. These folks post lots of good ideas but like many webinars they have there share of fluff. I think these are some of the better ones out there and I would encourage those interested to check some of the other ones out too.

 

I have never taken their training and have no idea if they actually trade. Hope it is useful.

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Good Monday morning everyone! I hope everyone is suitably refreshed and raring to go. Lots of things going on this week. Earnings, Europe stuff, Bernanke, Figures.....

 

Poor retail sales seemed to be absorbed earlier but Citigroup earnings beat.

 

A few thoughts:

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=29913&stc=1&d=1342445294

2012-07-16.thumb.jpg.8af71c4062b6f2e75db8008f46ead429.jpg

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great Ronin but I want to learn ,otherwise I'm wasting my eyes

 

could you give us some reasons for the blanket buy of that close today ? thank you and nice trade !

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great Ronin but I want to learn ,otherwise I'm wasting my eyes

 

could you give us some reasons for the blanket buy of that close today ? thank you and nice trade !

 

Well, here is my observation today : The ES Opened 1348.25 within the Previous Day Value Area :1353.25 - 1343.50 , therefore we would expect from experience that a Neutral Start Scenario would transpire. I am following my own trade here as I write this, so bear with me. To be continued...

Edited by Ronin

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The 60min close is the 2nd 30min bar which I track (same close)

 

Here you can see that delta switched off the lows of 1343.00 to positive

 

I also crossed the VWAP and closed above it so rotation to the Settlement was expected

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=29922&stc=1&d=1342461908

 

I had an entry lower down using the 5min chart.

2012-07-16_1230_ES_30M_VPOC.thumb.png.198e63f71eb3e78b92bb4a46b68f1968.png

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great Ronin but I want to learn ,otherwise I'm wasting my eyes

 

could you give us some reasons for the blanket buy of that close today ? thank you and nice trade !

 

So , as soon as it opens at 1348.25 , it reverses to the down side , going against the GAP fill traders, hitting their stop loss orders and penetrating the Floor Pivot at 1345.75 , odviously looking for the Value Area Low at 1344.25. But below this level there was 1343.00 single print ( look at the market profile ) and LVN from Friday . So it was very logical that it would stop falling at that level.

 

That was a no brainer trade to go long at 1344.It was actually a Fourth but brief consolidation Zone that was missed by the previous illustration from another contributor to this forum.

 

From that level at 1343, by the way the volume gave a clue to the reversal, if you were keen enough to see it. Then it trended up to the I B High at 1349.50 and also a key level at 1349.75 and that is when I decided that there was a Low Risk Entry Long at the I B Close 1347.25. I knew that it was going to try to close the GAP all the way UP to the Prev Day Close at 1352. My risk was only 1 Pt . Also this level was very close to the 38.20 % Fib Retracement from I B High - 1347

Edited by Ronin

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Not sure if credit is the right term. Straight jacket would be more useful. Not a good day for trend following entries. Depressingly my best trade was at 9:36 shorting 1348 ... After that it was chop time.

 

Now I'm stuck in a long that I don't have enough brains to get out of. My stop is there just in case. But its up and down and messing my head.

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