Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Recommended Posts

The premarket moves in the EC often provide easier price action to capture and a great risk reward. Today the marekt rallied thru the VWAP and touched the 2nd standard deviation then rotated down thru the VWAP to complete the route at the 2nd minus standard deviation, where .... surprise it found buyers.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=29836&stc=1&d=1342009369

 

I find that during the premarket the ES and EC can confirm each other's intentions so I watch and trade both when they are in agreement.

2012-07-11_0819_ECU12_10M_SD2_TO_SD-2.thumb.png.19f2fa7ecc4662d4349d90e0578cf815.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For me, if we can't get above and hold the 1340.25's, I think we'll be rolling back down towards a test of 20.75's for a check of balance. Below there and I think a move back to 1307.50/08.50 seems likely. If we we're to break back into the 6-day balance from 1341.00-1369.50, I would suggest that we need to re-test the 1357.00's again as that is low volume and pretty much where yesterday's decent originated from. Much above that and we obviously have the rest of the balance profile but should it hold, once again we'll be in a low volume zone on the long term profile. I'd be looking toward a gap close to 79.50 then the VPOC of the balance I have from 3/13-5/7 at 1386.00 as key prices. Should we get above 57.00 and hold, given the strong move out of short term balance and re-entry into it, the chances of testing higher would be high.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The premarket moves in the EC often provide easier price action to capture and a great risk reward. Today the marekt rallied thru the VWAP and touched the 2nd standard deviation then rotated down thru the VWAP to complete the route at the 2nd minus standard deviation, where .... surprise it found buyers.

 

I find that during the premarket the ES and EC can confirm each other's intentions so I watch and trade both when they are in agreement.

 

So did you trade it here and what was your play? 2SD to -2SD?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I had a signal for the long at 6:20 EDT but I missed it as I was just getting my coffee and waking up. I got the short which was a confirmation entry at 7:35 EDT.

 

I am currently long at 1.2270.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A break of lows with volume would have me holding for 1316.50.

 

UPDATE 09:48 EDT upside I would target 1343.00 if we take out the prior swing high at 1337.

Edited by bakrob99

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
For me, if we can't get above and hold the 1340.25's, I think we'll be rolling back down towards a test of 20.75's for a check of balance.

 

Just checking here every so often, and good to see we still think alike N ;-) Though the market is not plowing down right now as strongly as I would like it, I planned this same trade before bed last night (40-42 strong sell) and happy to see it playing out at the moment. Market may not make a decisive move until the FOMC minutes later this afternoon though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

10:56 EDT Bulls are hanging onto the overnight low by the skin of their teeth.

 

Possible Bullish Gartley fwiw.

 

I'm expecting it to fail and 1330.50 to be tested shortly

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Considering how ES was moving and the fact that yesterday was a big down day and that FOMC minutes are due for release, expectation was for a possible early move but ultimately some kind of range activity until later in the session. With this context, I've done a chart to explain early action as I was seeing it. It's always difficult to fully demonstrate market activity on a historical chart, but hopefully it helps to make things a little clearer :)

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=29837&stc=1&d=1342019101

2012-07-11_2.thumb.jpg.f97a16c13770a2ef1a811228c9687056.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just checking here every so often, and good to see we still think alike N ;-) Though the market is not plowing down right now as strongly as I would like it, I planned this same trade before bed last night (40-42 strong sell) and happy to see it playing out at the moment. Market may not make a decisive move until the FOMC minutes later this afternoon though.

 

Yeah that was the plan and it worked well. I actually was long from 34.50 too so that was nice! Always a positive to go into an announcement with some "house money" but important not be gung-ho because of it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With the dollar quite directional at the minute, I think there is a chance of testing lower if we spend a decent amount of time below 36.50/37.00. If not right now, then perhaps after the minutes release. 23.25(gap)/23.50(high vol) and 20.75(low vol) major targets. That being said, if the FED severly disappoint the markets, forget those and look towards the 07.50/08.50 area maybe.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Here's an article which is interesting and can keep you from overtrading prior to the FOMC minutes release.

 

Economist's View: The Puzzling Pre-FOMC Announcement "Drift"

 

It's on point.

 

Excellent article and thanks for posting the link. Should note, however, that it is only referring to the actual eight FOMC announcements periods, not meeting minutes days like today.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes ... I realized that. But I thought it would help take your mind off of this chop before the minutes come out.

 

And speaking of the minutes - I expect that the reaction to them will take longer for institutions to digest so we may not see as much movement as early as one might expect. But the move once underway should keep going for a while.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

well its one way of looking at things....unfortunately it not a productive way of seeing it but thats academia for you

 

Those who do this for a living have to deliver a result.....they look at real world action based on human habits....particularly the habits of people who put capital to work in the markets....

 

"Informed" participants (the pc term for smart money) will tend to pre-position, get some breathing room and manage the position into the release. The "drift" is the natural historical tendency of markets (and those who want to make a buck).

 

Its not only prior to FOMC that this happens....in fact I was taught to pre-position for the RTH session during the previous evening from midnight to about 4am PST. Works very well and I do it to this day (I was short from 4am this morning).

 

there are a number of different ways to make money in this business, to act in ways that aren't immediately obvious to the crowd has always paid off for me...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We finally hit 1330.50 ... managed to get short on a break thru the swing low at 1334.50 so that was nice. Out now and expecting another push down... but watching/stalking.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Update: 14:33 Fading the pullback to the IBL was the key for me. With selling coming in aggressively at 1333 - 1332.50 that was the short. Not sure how far this is going but I don't have too much to stop it here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
well its one way of looking at things....unfortunately it not a productive way of seeing it but thats academia for you

 

Those who do this for a living have to deliver a result.....they look at real world action based on human habits....particularly the habits of people who put capital to work in the markets....

 

"Informed" participants (the pc term for smart money) will tend to pre-position, get some breathing room and manage the position into the release. The "drift" is the natural historical tendency of markets (and those who want to make a buck).

 

Its not only prior to FOMC that this happens....in fact I was taught to pre-position for the RTH session during the previous evening from midnight to about 4am PST. Works very well and I do it to this day (I was short from 4am this morning).

 

there are a number of different ways to make money in this business, to act in ways that aren't immediately obvious to the crowd has always paid off for me...

 

=========

Nice notation, fully agree, I always believed into pre-position, with like 5% to 30% of the intended tradable capital for the day (depending on the strentgh of expected event). When trading big book in real life you HAVE to lead the flock, otherwise you risk to miss big order execution/monthly ratings/and of course P&L... All of which is severely punished. But you have to do the homework,:cool: be it strategy team screwed, sales asked for client input or just pain vanila "direct little window to the outerspace" which is what I like to call when you know nothing (as all of us) but have to jump in and think you know the direction.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

OK Back at the VWAP and this is where I am getting off the bus. Really good trading this news event. Market can still rally but I'm done for the day. Look for resistance around 1336.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Dropped below yesterday's RTH overnight so far and it looks like we'll be testing the low on open unless a drastic move happens within the next few mins. Tomorrow is possibly going to move things. Some decent eco releases, there are bank earnings and overnight is CNY GDP. So, what do I reckon? I think given attempted rally into close and failure overnight, we could have more downside. Could it be monumental? Hmm. Maybe, but with stuff tomorrow and very achievable targets as shown in my chart, I'd suspect that we might hold one of these prices- unless of course there's new data to price.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=29851&stc=1&d=1342099786

2012-07-12.thumb.jpg.c705fd2c55df65da389776c2d0fc730c.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That looks like it could've been the 20.75 test although won't know until see the extent of rotation up. If it's to move higher, I'd like to see a fairly quick break of 24.00 (overnight low) and 24.75 (midpoint).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Similar Content

    • By Quantower
      The main goal of this thread is to show what Power Trades is and how it works in different markets. We will show some patterns on the ES and NQ futures, as well as discuss possible improvements to this functionality.
      What is Power Trades?
      Ok, first we will consider what the Power Trades is and how it finds zones.
      Power Trades shows the zones with the execution of a large number of orders in a very short time, which will affect the price change with a high probability.
      Here are a few examples of how it looks like


      How it finds zones?
      There is a continuous process of placing, changing and executing orders in the market. All this affects the price change and the expectations of traders regarding the future price.
      When a large order appears at a certain level, the price is more likely to come to this order and it will be executed because the market is always looking for levels with liquidity. This already applies to the order flow and the mechanics of orders matching, so we will omit the principles on which the orders are matched.
      It is only important to understand that "abnormal events" occur in the market at certain times. Execution of a significant volume of orders in a very short time is one of such events.
      The Power Trades Scanner has several important settings that directly affect the results:

      Total Volume — the minimum value of the volume that should be traded during the specified time interval
      Time Interval, sec — the time over which the Total Volume should be traded
      Basis Volume Interval, sec — this parameter shows how much % took the traded volume in the total volume for the specified time.
      Zone Height, ticks — this parameter will show only those zones where the height is less than or equal to the specified value (in ticks).
      Level2 level count — the number of levels that are involved in the calculation of Imbalance and the Level 2 Ratio column in the table of results.
      Filter by Delta,% — the parameter will show zones that have a delta value greater than or equal to that specified in the setting. The value must be specified by the module, so the table will show both positive and negative delta values. We recommend paying attention to the zones with the delta above 50% (taking into account the specifics of each trading instrument).
      For example, let's set the Total Volume of 2000 contracts and Time Interval in 3 seconds on the E-mini SP500 futures. This means that the scan will be based on the available history and will show on the chart only those zones that have such a volume for the specified time.

      Additionally, it is worth to set a delta value to filter out the zones with one-side trades. The more delta value, the high probability that the price will reverse.

      So, as a starting point about this scanner, I think this information will be enough
    • By makuchaku
      Hi everyone,
      This is my maiden analysis using volume profile - so please don't hesitate to share your feedback.
      As per the attached analysis, I think that SPY is primed for a short - for many reasons
      - Multiple strong rejection of long positions exist at Resistance R1 and R2 : seems like sellers defending their positions
      - Very strong short volume seen at R2 : further signifying sellers who are ready at that level
      However, once the price reaches Support S1, there seems to be a strong buying sentiment which has rejected previous shorts. You can see trading ranges & pullbacks to S1 where buyers and sellers seem to agree on a price range, often leading to a buyer dominance.
      What do you think?

    • By TraderJoe
      Hey All,
      does anyone sell Volume Profile Indicator for NT8.
       
      Regards
  • Topics

  • Posts

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.