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I discovered this site and the forum yesterday and have been fascinated by this thread. Truly great stuff and very educational. I think I have gone through at least 90% of it in a few hours yesterday evening. Phantom many thanks for your contributions and your decisions to keep doing so even with all the noise within this thread. I'm very new to technical analysis and was hoping that I can post a chart for comment on whether a particular bar in the chart qualifies as a candidate entry point. Phantom please let me know whether I should post it here or PM you and again many thanks for helping noobs such as myself.

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I discovered this site and the forum yesterday and have been fascinated by this thread. Truly great stuff and very educational. I think I have gone through at least 90% of it in a few hours yesterday evening. Phantom many thanks for your contributions and your decisions to keep doing so even with all the noise within this thread. I'm very new to technical analysis and was hoping that I can post a chart for comment on whether a particular bar in the chart qualifies as a candidate entry point. Phantom please let me know whether I should post it here or PM you and again many thanks for helping noobs such as myself.

 

I've been away from the thread for a couple weeks, so sorry for the delay in the reply...

 

Feel free to post a chart and ask a question as long as its relevant to the content on this thread. I'll address it eventually...

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

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I made an overview of important chart patterns and chart reading methods, which I think are working well.

I hope you enjoy it.

 

Topics:

Stop Fishing, Consolidation, Consolidation price zone, Simple Moving Average (SMA), Timing Setup, Price Rejection, No breakout confirmation, Fibonacci study/ swing study/ trend, Bull/ Bear flag,Head and Shoulders pattern, Ending Diagonal pattern, Three-Drives pattern, Butterfly sell pattern, Butterfly buy pattern

 

 

Technical Chart Analysis (EUR/USD) Euro US Dollar Day Trading Forex market: Chart Patterns 1/3

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What works? Lots of stuff works. There is nothing new in trading. The question then becomes what will work for you as an individual, what do you see on a chart and can relate to, what time frame do you have to trade, what is your personality?

 

The items in this thread work such as

support and resistance,

pivots (for me based around midnight GMT) including W pivots,

price action (focus greatly on the trend i.e. higher highs higher lows/lower highs lower lows and if counter trend multiple candles to confirm a change),

engulfing closes and morning/evening star patterns

 

The question then becomes how do you pull that together?

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My wife and I are day traders we had a trade run overnight 2 weeks ago, first time in years. So my comments are focused around that, inter day.

 

First off our D charts have what we have easily eyeballed as SR areas. Often at the bodies of candles (open and close) and not at the wicks extreme.

 

Here is our D chart. Yikes lots of lines, well from Jun-Aug price chopped around a limited range. We don't trade at the identified level but look to see the reaction to that level.

1.gif.508bc0b9a9e61224953b9aa9ceaf6f8e.gif

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Onto the 4hr chart. What works for us.

 

Please note the W pivots extend right across the screen but are for this last week only.

 

We have 3 red lines being what we regard as proven SR areas from D chart and W pivots. I think its fair to say that between the 2 they have done a great job of containing price.

 

We have part of the fozzy indicator (popular several years ago, an 8 sma on an 8 rsi). You can use the cross as a short term indicator of trend and of course as divergence if needing some additional info when price turning. We have an 8 lwma, yes an open/close the other side of the lwma is in itself a semi decent signal. Yes if you're observant you might say the rsi cross and lwma open above/close below (and open below close above) give pretty much the exact same signals so 1 of them is redundant and could be deleted. Fair enough but this is what I'm comfortable with. The arrows up and down show closes where the candle to the left has closed higher/lower than the previous two candle closes i.e. an engulfing close.

 

What to look for then:

SR levels, pivots and prices reaction to them.

The rsi/8lwma cross will generally signal trades 2 or 3 times a week on 4hr chart so unless you are scalping a short term counter trend method follow this trend.

Is price flowing i.e. on a lower high lower low or higher high higher low.

Have you got an engulfing close?

 

In this GU chart for the last week we had 2 signals, coming into the week we were on a continuation of last weeks signal. We have lines highlighting signals at 30/10/12 8am and 1/11/12 4pm.

 

30/10/12. Price stops at W M2, has an engulfing positive engulfing close, fozzy rsi/8lwma cross. An engulfing close (i.e. price showing it has power to break a range).

 

Same story 1/11/12. Price has an evening star pattern (a personal fave) positive close/hesitation then negative close. Reaction to R level, RSI/lwma cross, engulfing close.

 

You could trade these as a 4hr method, we go down to smaller time frames. We know generally each cross is likely to follow through for a couple of days i.e. an average 2-3 signals a week.

2.gif.a6628f243ac57ed30785facfe2ffaf24.gif

Edited by Snow Dog

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Drilling down to 1hr. To the left of line 30/10/12 we have continuation of last weeks signal. The purple ma is a 32lwma i.e. 4hr 8lwma and decent enough short term trend signal.

 

Here we have good angle down on 32lwma so we are happy with 4hr trend. With this good angle down If price retraces between the ma's we are looking to sell 5 or 15 min lower highs or neg closes in reaction to pivots, round numbers, SR levels etc. If we miss those 1hr engulfing negative closes.

3.gif.b0a446fed589cddfa6d5ce804ad442b6.gif

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From the red line 30/10/12 we are looking to buy. Same story in between the ma's we are looking for 5/15 min higher lows/engulfing closes from the same list of pivots, RN's etc. Missing those engulfing 1hr closes.

3.gif.376f394628dd693f176a0d744166d36d.gif

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Sorry for the multi post long winded way of saying what works. For me its trend and I have chosen a trend definition that suits my time frame and trading mentality. Support and resistance and W pivots work. You do not need a long list of indicators, an ma or two and we use rsi. Price action works, for us its market follow (higher lows lower highs), engulfing closes and evening/morning star patterns.

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Hello all!

 

Here's to the new year bringing you everything your heart desires...

 

Happy new year, and may God bless you and yours!

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

 

Thanks Phantom. And all the best to you and yours in the New Year!

 

And thanks again for your generous insights in this exceptional thread.

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Afternoon Phantom,

 

Apologies if this has been asked in some form previously, but I haven't waded through every post in this long and entertaining forum. I've had lots of nice return in the past following hammer breakouts from a consolidation range, but I'm curious as to your thoughts on profit targets.

 

You mentioned you don't want to risk more than $150 per contract, what do you seek to earn at minimum per contract? Do you have a certain chart indication on when you always get out of a position? Do you have a max target?

 

Thanks, great thread.

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You mentioned you don't want to risk more than $150 per contract, what do you seek to earn at minimum per contract? Do you have a certain chart indication on when you always get out of a position? Do you have a max target?

 

Hi Voodoo,

 

See posts #170, #175!

 

Luv,

Phantom

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I am a swing trader and i use the just the basics (20/50/200 DMA (no crossovers, only bounces ) RSI 14 and S/R levels on the daily charts only. I also keep an eye for the upcoming news events on the underlined asset along with Global Macro..i trade stocks and commodities and it works well....

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Just got this on my FB feed...

 

THERE ARE NO EASY ROADS TO SUCCESS

 

"Whatever you want in life, you must give up something to get it. The greater the value, the greater the sacrifice required of you.

Everything has a price. There’s a price to pay if you want to make things better, and a price to pay for just leaving things as they are.

 

Nothing worthwhile ever comes easily. Work, continuous work and hard work, is the only way to accomplish results that last.

 

Use your imagination more than your memory to achieve success.

 

The highway to success is a toll road. There is no success at bargain basement prices."

 

 

If this doesn't apply to futures trading, nothing does...

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

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Just got this on my FB feed...

 

THERE ARE NO EASY ROADS TO SUCCESS

 

 

 

The highway to success is a toll road. There is no success at bargain basement prices."

 

 

If this doesn't apply to futures trading, nothing does...

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

 

Reminds me of the saying, " The Road To Hell Is Littered With Good Intentions".

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Hi Phantom,

 

would this qualify as a correct set up. Hammer on the attachment (EU 30min chart) showing price rejection, however this happened not after breaking the small trendline and testing it, but before and price than plummet.

I've noticed this is happening quite often.

Please comment.

 

Thanks

 

MBX

EU30min.png.9d5e07e150ca6a48e31acd4e0f325078.png

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Hi Phantom,

 

would this qualify as a correct set up. Hammer on the attachment (EU 30min chart) showing price rejection, however this happened not after breaking the small trendline and testing it, but before and price than plummet.

I've noticed this is happening quite often.

Please comment.

 

Thanks

 

MBX

 

This chart is clearly demonstrating price rejection. Whether this qualifies as a setup in my book depends on the nature of the breakout that led to this test and subsequent price rejection.

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Hi Phantom,

 

just want show this chart with price rejection right before NFP announcement. As I was already in EURCAD short so I did not take it, however it was a textbook example I think.

 

Your method is very powerful so thanks for sharing it.

 

However, my question is, for some reason, I was quite able to spot price rejections mainly going short in currencies, almost none going long.

 

Is this in your experience as well (as your examples are mostly short) or I am not reading correctly yet.

 

Please comment.

 

Thanks

 

MBX

NFP_EU.thumb.png.d7e4cad61d25a6192690e3f2dd7be088.png

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I received a PM asking about this trade.

 

I missed this trading signal last night because of its timing, but for those of you around the globe who were up and monitoring the EC, I thought I'd go through it for you...

 

The euro market had been channeling for several hours. Just after midnight (GMT +7) the market broke upwards out of the channel. We see the price action waiver around for awhile and then retrace to the breakout zone, followed by a quick move upwards and back down.

 

The market proceeded to move through the channel and downward, followed by a test of the lower channel zone. A doji formed at the test point. A downward break of this doji around the 1.4220 area led to a sharp decline to the 1.4120 area, a $1200 (plus or minus) profit per car for those involved. Not bad for a $200 risk...

 

Notice how waiting for the doji test of the channel zone kept one from taking the breakout to the upside and getting stopped out.

 

Similar signals in this market happen all the time.

 

Question is, are you getting these R/R ratios in your trades?

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

 

 

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=25407&stc=1&d=1311257588

 

I realise this is fairly old news but I am still interested in this after losing this thread :crap: for years and happening upon it again this week :)

 

Isn't there a false breakout/reversal with a hammer 5 bars earlier which would have provided a better entry point ±1.424 with a much tighter stop loss and consequently better R:R ratio? Curious minds would like to know!

 

BTW Like many other before me I've found this thread invaluable and would personally like to buy you a :beer: one merry day phantom :deal:

 

cheers

aztrix

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I would have shorted a break of the bar 2 bars to the left of the #1 bar (ie the doji) or on a short of the #2 bar, had it occurred.

 

I would only take a signal if the next bar broke the signal bar.

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

 

As per your statement "Just use the 20 period moving average as your trend filter and NEVER trade against the trend on the 15 minute chart." I'm slightly confused with this strategy which seems to fly in the face of trading with the prevailing trend i.e. long.

 

The price has retraced to the 20 EMA with a nice doji setup, would you not have a buy stop 1 tic above the doji and a stop loss 1 tic below it? Or is the R:R to small?

 

cheers

aztrix

 

Still learning the ropes

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On 5/15/2011 at 11:02 PM, phantom said:

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=24590&stc=1&d=1305480204

 

 

This is the July Beans showing a perfect consolidation breakout followed by a hammer. Notice the "rattail" that helps identify the hammer. See if you can identify the other two hammers in this down move (both excellent places to pyramid your position).

 

This is only one of several breakout systems I developed and trade but I'm able to get in on several sustained breakouts each week with this method in just the currency futures alone.

 

Hope this helps.

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

5aa71077b616f_cbohammer.jpg.b643a137c1fd1fc40c6e902b13b36e9a.jpg

This is great. Amazing

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    • You should never give in to the rumors as it could lead you to bankruptcy if it isn't true.
    • Yeah, and you should never stop learning. If you wish to survive in the Forex Market, the only way to do it is by learning all the time.
    • Date : 1st December 2021. Market Update – December 1 – Taper gets a boost & Transitory gets “retired”. Powell “retires” Transitory in light of Omicron & surprisingly suggests faster taper – Stocks tank, Dollar& Yields rise on faster tightening expectations.   USD (USDIndex 95.90) back down from leap to 96.60 on Powell testimony. Saw fresh wave of risk aversion as Treasuries sold off, yields spiked (particularly the 2yr) , Stocks fell significantly with USA100 down over -2.4% (APPL bucked the trend +3.16%) USA500 -1.90% (-88pts) 4567 & USA30 off 652 pts or -1.86%. Consumer confidence saw a slump in the headline, and a rise to a 13-year high in the inflation component. The Chicago PMI fell to 61.8. Home prices increased to fresh record peaks. US Yields 10-year rates were down over 7 bps to 1.41% before closing at 1.443% before recovring to 1.468% now. Asian Markets – Equities – Topix and Nikkei are currently up 0.4%, the Hang Seng bounced 1.1% and the CSI 300 is up 0.1%. The ASX, which outperformed yesterday, dropped back -0.3%. Data over night – Japan’s manufacturing PMI came in stronger than expected and while China’s private PMI reading signalled stagnation at 49.9, that was compensated somewhat by the stronger than expected official manufacturing PMI released yesterday. AUD GDP was not as bad as expected -1.9% vs -2.7% & 0.7% last time. USOil – continues under pressure, down to $64.08 (14-week lows) yesterday – recovered to test $68.00 today – expectations continue to grow that OPEC+, will put on hold plans to add 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) of supply in January at their meeting tomorrow. Gold finally some intra-day volatility – Powell surprise spiked to $1808 – before testing $1770 with a couple of hours, back to $1788 now. FX markets – Yen rallied USDJPY dipped to 112.50, back to 113.40 now, EURUSD now 1.1326 & Cable steadied to 1.3300-1.3330. European Open – December 10-yr Bund future down -11 ticks at 172.26, slightly outperforming versus Treasury futures. Central bankers may be getting more nervous about inflation outlook, but Omicron clearly is clouding over growth outlook & in Europe at least that will boost the arguments of the cautious camp at the central banks. US yields remain firmly below the levels seen before the new virus variant hit the headlines & sentiment is likely to remain jittery, even if stocks are set to back up from yesterday’s lows, with DAX & FTSE 100 future posting gains of 0.9% and 0.7% respectively & a 1.4% jump in the NASDAQ leading US futures higher. Data releases today kicked off with a big miss for German Retail sales (-0.3% vs 1.0%), higher UK house prices & firmer CPI from CHF. Today – PMIs (EZ & UK),US Markit Final Manufacturing PMIs, US ADP and ISM Manufacturing PMI, JTC and OPEC meetings, BoE’s Bailey and Fed’s Powell & Yellen testify. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.60%) Risk-sensitive currencies remain volatile, from a slide to 76.65 yesterday, today a rally to 77.80. Currently MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram over 0 and rising, RSI dipping from 70.00 at 58, Stochastic remain OB. H1 ATR 0.172, Daily 0.84. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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