Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

MadMarketScientist

Win $500 - Simply Predict The Markets Closing Price!

Recommended Posts

Exactly one month to go! I typed in today's closing prices to SIUYA's spreadsheet and it looks like R3VBR is currently in the lead...

 

EDIT: and it looks like DylKay is in second place, and stevensSJC is in third (going by the absolute value of the difference between the person's total and today's total)...

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=23126&d=1291162112

Capture.thumb.JPG.d51c5948067ae2fbfed7bf145b751a87.JPG

Edited by Cory2679

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'm in...here's mine:

 

Dow 10,963

S&P500 1,130

Nasdaq Comp 2,412

 

I'm praying all doesn't go to hell in a hand basket - whatever that means. So this is my 'things will get better' prediction in particular after the election even if it crumbles before.

With all the back and forth volatility, I don't think the market will change much between now and then, so why not put up the same numbers that are up today

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
With all the back and forth volatility, I don't think the market will change much between now and then, so why not put up the same numbers that are up today

 

You had to make your guess by September 22 or something like that, so you could only use today's numbers if you had guessed them three months ago.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just a few days left to go....

 

Barring a surprise, which might be unlikely given all the snowed in traders it would be appear the bulls on the board are in the running, those of you who were bearish, not so much.

 

Let's see what happens to close the week and get the final numbers soon!

 

MMS

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just a few days left to go.... it would be appear the bulls on the board are in the running, those of you who were bearish, not so much.

 

Let's see what happens to close the week and get the final numbers soon!

 

MMS

 

Well, it is a bull market, you know ...

 

Based on what I spy with my eye, it looks like the bulls were running at TL and have come out on top of the less bullish to downright bearish counts.

 

Happy New Year folks, and don't let anyone tell you that fib's and Stephenson WPTT's are not useful when used within the context of the primary trend.

 

I think that this could make for an interesting quarterly game here at TL, if MMS is amenable to it.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi there MMS,

 

Any thoughts on renewing this contest? If not quarterly perhaps you could simply run another pick the year's closing price, but start it now and cut entries off at the end of January. Its one thing to pick the close three months out. It is entirely another to pick it out a whole year.

 

Also, may I suggest that if you do run the contest again, you judge it as suggested by Blowfish in his post above - determine the difference between each guess and the actual close for each individual index, and then add those three numbers together - the lowest number across the board wins.

 

In terms of this years contest, if my math is correct, it actually works out that the closest guess on the total also was closest on each of the three indices, but you could see that it would be easy for someone to be way off on all three, but by an arithmetic accident, nonetheless wins the contest based on the simple total of the his or her three guesses.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yep, great ideas.

 

I need to announce the winners which I'll work on in the next day or so.

 

And then, definitely we should do it again. I think a quarterly and a year-end.

 

I'm going to post a new thread to kick it off so check in this same forum - Market Analysis --

 

Thanks.

 

MMS

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And now, time to announce the winners.

 

With much fanfare and an absolutely amazing prediction the winner and reigning champion (possibly psychic?) is:

 

THALESTRADER

 

Prediction? 15,469.47

Actual? 15,488.02

 

Ok, that is freakin incredible. Thalestrader, you "missed" by about 19 points total -- a fraction of a percent. I want you managing my portfolio! Great job, this might stand as the closest prediction ever -- hard to beat going forward.

 

SECOND PLACE: "YUPPIE_MO" with another stirring set of predictions. Off just 89 points from the final total. Wow - great job.

 

THIRD PLACE: DWG0 -- great job, tough competition above but you did well - and the key was being bullish. The bulls won out for sure.

 

Remember, nice winnings....1st Place $500 Amazon Gift Card, 2nd Place $200 and 3rd Place $50 Gift Cards. See, that's why the rest of you observers should have posted!

 

And, you have another chance -- see the new thread just above this one -- get your predictions in now.

 

A special thanks to SIUYA for the great work on the Excel spreadsheet that made my life much easier.

 

We'll certify these in the next day or so -- just wanted to put it out there in case anyone sees any errors I made but I think we're there.

 

MMS

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
And now, time to announce the winners.

 

With much fanfare and an absolutely amazing prediction the winner and reigning champion (possibly psychic?) is:

 

THALESTRADER

 

Prediction? 15,469.47

Actual? 15,488.02

 

Ok, that is freakin incredible. Thalestrader, you "missed" by about 19 points total -- a fraction of a percent. I want you managing my portfolio! Great job, this might stand as the closest prediction ever -- hard to beat going forward.

 

No psychic abilities here, MMS. That performance will be hard for me to beat. This particular contest started during a period where the market was likely finishing five month consolidation - so it was an easy bet to be a bull, and then the question was simply "how bullish?" I then used some fib projections and Stephenson-like time targets to pick a likely price level for the market to reside at during the last two weeks of December. After all, it was a safe bet that we'd only be dealing with one intermediate term swing during the September-December period.

 

The new contest is much more difficult, as during the course of this coming year, I would anticipate four intermediate swings (the current uptrend + three more distinct intermediate swings). It was much easier to guess where one swing would be and a specific point in time, especially when we already knew the prior upswing high and the down swing low. We now have to guess where the market will be in three months and 12 months, but we do not have a certain upswing high in place yet. That makes the new contest much more of a "guess" whereas this contest was more of an "educated guess."

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
No psychic abilities here, MMS. That performance will be hard for me to beat. This particular contest started during a period where the market was likely finishing five month consolidation - so it was an easy bet to be a bull, and then the question was simply "how bullish?" I then used some fib projections and Stephenson-like time targets to pick a likely price level for the market to reside at during the last two weeks of December. After all, it was a safe bet that we'd only be dealing with one intermediate term swing during the September-December period.

 

The new contest is much more difficult, as during the course of this coming year, I would anticipate four intermediate swings (the current uptrend + three more distinct intermediate swings). It was much easier to guess where one swing would be and a specific point in time, especially when we already knew the prior upswing high and the down swing low. We now have to guess where the market will be in three months and 12 months, but we do not have a certain upswing high in place yet. That makes the new contest much more of a "guess" whereas this contest was more of an "educated guess."

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Good Job.

 

This time around it will be exactly as hard to guess as it was last time around.

 

Good luck.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
So, are you in?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

No. I have no idea of where it will be. I need to guess if someone is going to be there in the next 5 to 120 minutes to pay me if I am in a trade or if I am going to be the one paying.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

MightMouse - clearly then you are not a trader :)....and I say this for anyone who does not want to participate.

You have been given a free option to guess at where the market will be at zero cost to yourself. ( Apart from a bit of ego), and you dont really need to do anything except guess at a few numbers...... and yet you say no......

call me old fashioned.....its a great trade. I will take this all day everyday.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
MightMouse - clearly then you are not a trader :)....and I say this for anyone who does not want to participate.

You have been given a free option to guess at where the market will be at zero cost to yourself. ( Apart from a bit of ego), and you dont really need to do anything except guess at a few numbers...... and yet you say no......

call me old fashioned.....its a great trade. I will take this all day everyday.

 

Siuya,

 

I almost feel like you are calling into question my manhood. God knows I need to defend that.

 

MM

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Siuya,

 

I almost feel like you are calling into question my manhood. God knows I need to defend that.

 

MM

 

Not at all. You don''t need to be a man to trade.

But I would argue you are not likely to be a trader if you cannot see a free trade/option.

 

this was deliberately meant to goad you into participating......and the same for everyone else.

(it has nothing to do with your manhood.....maybe I should have asked are you a man or a mouse :haha:)

 

Given the oft quoted 95% failure rate......and the lack of willing participants in the contest, then I am starting to think there is more likely to be a 99.9% failure rate, and the reasons are becoming obvious.

Edited by SIUYA

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
This time around it will be exactly as hard to guess as it was last time around.

 

I know that you believe that, but it really was relatively easy this time, and it is far more difficult this this time. I'll tell you why after 1/11.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
And now, time to announce the winners.

 

With much fanfare and an absolutely amazing prediction the winner and reigning champion (possibly psychic?) is:

 

THALESTRADER

 

Prediction? 15,469.47

Actual? 15,488.02

 

Ok, that is freakin incredible. Thalestrader, you "missed" by about 19 points total -- a fraction of a percent. I want you managing my portfolio! Great job, this might stand as the closest prediction ever -- hard to beat going forward.

 

SECOND PLACE: "YUPPIE_MO" with another stirring set of predictions. Off just 89 points from the final total. Wow - great job.

 

THIRD PLACE: DWG0 -- great job, tough competition above but you did well - and the key was being bullish. The bulls won out for sure.

 

Remember, nice winnings....1st Place $500 Amazon Gift Card, 2nd Place $200 and 3rd Place $50 Gift Cards. See, that's why the rest of you observers should have posted!

 

And, you have another chance -- see the new thread just above this one -- get your predictions in now.

 

A special thanks to SIUYA for the great work on the Excel spreadsheet that made my life much easier.

 

We'll certify these in the next day or so -- just wanted to put it out there in case anyone sees any errors I made but I think we're there.

 

MMS

 

Hey MMS,

 

Is there anything you need from us to receive our prizes? Or should we just wait?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
...This particular contest started during a period where the market was likely finishing five month consolidation - so it was an easy bet to be a bull, ....

Thales

 

Consolidation was visible on the charts for all to see... but price had not broken out at the time and could have potentially broken either way ultimately. What factors (other than seasonality) put you squarely in the "easy bet to be a bull" camp as you so positioned back in September "Well, this is a bull market, you know! - Mr. Partridge"

 

Was it the volume and HL on the 1st of the month?

 

snowbird

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hey MMS,

 

Is there anything you need from us to receive our prizes? Or should we just wait?

 

I'm hoping we get them soon ... I promised my kids Kindle Readers all around if I won, and I'd like to use TL gift card to purchase them.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

To my winners, do me a favor and private message me with the email address you'd like me to use to send the Amazon $. I can use what you have on file in your profile but just in case there's a different/preferred just let me know. I'll process these later today. Thanks.

 

MMS

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Be careful who you blame.   I can tell you one thing for sure.   Effective traders don’t blame others when things start to go wrong.   You can hang onto your tendency to play the victim, or the martyr… but if you want to achieve in trading, you have to be prepared to take responsibility.   People assign reasons to outcomes, whether based on internal or external factors.   When traders face losses, it's common for them to blame bad luck, poor advice, or other external factors, rather than reflecting on their own personal attributes like arrogance, fear, or greed.   This is a challenging lesson to grasp in your trading journey, but one that holds immense value.   This is called attribution theory. Taking responsibility for your actions is the key to improving your trading skills. Pause and ask yourself - What role did I play in my financial decisions?   After all, you were the one who listened to that source, and decided to act on that trade based on the rumour. Attributing results solely to external circumstances is what is known as having an ‘external locus of control’.   It's a concept coined by psychologist Julian Rotter in 1954. A trader with an external locus of control might say, "I made a profit because the markets are currently favourable."   Instead, strive to develop an "internal locus of control" and take ownership of your actions.   Assume that all trading results are within your realm of responsibility and actively seek ways to improve your own behaviour.   This is the fastest route to enhancing your trading abilities. A trader with an internal locus of control might proudly state, "My equity curve is rising because I am a disciplined trader who faithfully follows my trading plan." Author: Louise Bedford Source: https://www.tradinggame.com.au/
    • SELF IMPROVEMENT.   The whole self-help industry began when Dale Carnegie published How to Win Friends and Influence People in 1936. Then came other classics like Think And Grow Rich by Napoleon Hill, Awaken the Giant Within by Tony Robbins toward the end of the century.   Today, teaching people how to improve themselves is a business. A pure ruthless business where some people sell utter bullshit.   There are broke Instagrammers and YouTubers with literally no solid background teaching men how to be attractive to women, how to begin a start-up, how to become successful — most of these guys speaking nothing more than hollow motivational words and cliche stuff. They waste your time. Some of these people who present themselves as hugely successful also give talks and write books.   There are so many books on financial advice, self-improvement, love, etc and some people actually try to read them. They are a waste of time, mostly.   When you start reading a dozen books on finance you realize that they all say the same stuff.   You are not going to live forever in the learning phase. Don't procrastinate by reading bull-shit or the same good knowledge in 10 books. What we ought to do is choose wisely.   Yes. A good book can change your life, given you do what it asks you to do.   All the books I have named up to now are worthy of reading. Tim Ferriss, Simon Sinek, Robert Greene — these guys are worthy of reading. These guys teach what others don't. Their books are unique and actually, come from relevant and successful people.   When Richard Branson writes a book about entrepreneurship, go read it. Every line in that book is said by one of the greatest entrepreneurs of our time.   When a Chinese millionaire( he claims to be) Youtuber who releases a video titled “Why reading books keeps you broke” and a year later another one “My recommendation of books for grand success” you should be wise to tell him to jump from Victoria Falls.   These self-improvement gurus sell you delusions.   They say they have those little tricks that only they know that if you use, everything in your life will be perfect. Those little tricks. We are just “making of a to-do-list before sleeping” away from becoming the next Bill Gates.   There are no little tricks.   There is no success-mantra.   Self-improvement is a trap for 99% of the people. You can't do that unless you are very, very strong.   If you are looking for easy ways, you will only keep wasting your time forgetting that your time on this planet is limited, as alive humans that is.   Also, I feel that people who claim to read like a book a day or promote it are idiots. You retain nothing. When you do read a good book, you read slow, sometimes a whole paragraph, again and again, dwelling on it, trying to internalize its knowledge. You try to understand. You think. It takes time.   It's better to read a good book 10 times than 1000 stupid ones.   So be choosy. Read from the guys who actually know something, not some wannabe ‘influencers’.   Edit: Think And Grow Rich was written as a result of a project assigned to Napoleon Hill by Andrew Carnegie(the 2nd richest man in recent history). He was asked to study the most successful people on the planet and document which characteristics made them great. He did extensive work in studying hundreds of the most successful people of that time. The result was that little book.   Nowadays some people just study Instagram algorithms and think of themselves as a Dale Carnegie or Anthony Robbins. By Nupur Nishant, Quora Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/    
    • there is no avoiding loses to be honest, its just how the market is. you win some and hopefully more, but u do lose some. 
    • $CSCO Cisco Systems stock, nice top of range breakout, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?CSCOSEPN Septerna stock watch for a bottom breakout, good upside price gap
    • $CSCO Cisco Systems stock, nice top of range breakout, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?CSCOSEPN Septerna stock watch for a bottom breakout, good upside price gap
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.