Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Recommended Posts

I'm curious what best bounds a trend:

method 1- placing point 2 where it creates the most volatility for the trend (not necessarily at the point of volume sequence completion of the point 1 to 2 move) or

 

method 2- always placing it where the volume sequences completed for the point 1 to point 2 move

 

For example, I placed the LTL for the traverse at 10:55 today (method 1). I see Ehorn has it at 13:15 (method 2).

 

The choice of methods could possibly color one's view of whether something like a FTT (of the traverse) or VE (of the traverse LTL) is on the table in the NOW depending on the situation. I suppose either way, the faster trend FTT (FTT of tape post traverse point 3) with volume sequence completion shows us the change in market mode.

 

Thanks everyone for the help.

08122009es5min.thumb.jpg.ea423ee18e1dfb7b5b5ee7c55c0dc3e4.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

it depends on how you view the relationship... the price/volume relationship,

 

whether you think...

price drives volume,

or

volume drives price.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Volume leads Price. Always. And without exception.

 

Not sure what the right answer is to your question. The quote above should clear up the incorrect information from the previous post. How you know volume leads price? For that answer look at the gaussian illustration. As the volume increase Price will continue. Once the volume decreases Price will change. Look at my chart (8-12-09) at the 15:15 area. We know that if V increase, Price will continue upward not the other way around.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'm curious what best bounds a trend:

 

Interesting question. For me, an FTT of something becomes a PTn of something else. So logically (for me) this FTT is the place to drop the TL. Geometry does not always allow one to place a TL where a sequence completes, but IMO it seems more important that one does things consistently to be able to provide him/her the view required to see continuation/change.

Edited by ehorn

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi Spydertrader

 

Would you help a person who is learning and trying, but can not read the Market correctly yet?

 

The Market of today tells me that I had wrong annotation yesterday. The questions are as the following:

 

a) Why is the dotted Pink trendline not ES 5 min Traverse? Doesn't the 13:25 (open of ) bar finish the down sequence?

 

b) Since the Market of today proved I was wrong, I Guess there's something I missed to take consideration.

Are there any formation or price bars which were saying down sequence was not finished when the 13:25 (open of) bar presented with increasing volume?

TIA

5aa70f135fb48_Aug11Tape.thumb.gif.0322c306a7755dd705a4409cee976cd6.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In one of the earlier post Spyder mentions ten tapes. Not to throw people off but for the benefit of clarification, the ten examples are chart formations. Where tapes are used on top of the formations to show support and resistance. In addition, these formations occur in all fractals not just the tape aka fastest fractal. Spyder please correct me if this is not right.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi Romanus,

I'm working on drawing guassians and found something on your chart that continues to trip me up---beginnig at 15:50 there are 3 consecutive IRV bars that cross a RTL---yet you draw the guassian as DRV...

The gaussians match trendlines. The IT thread on ET, especially the 2nd half of '08, contains numerous discussions on the subject.

 

...

What is there to support this view other than the perceived point within the current cycle (B2R2B)

The price moving from Point 2 to Point 3 of the 5 min ES level traverse.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Would you help a person who is learning and trying, but can not read the Market correctly yet?

 

I'm not really sure I understand your question.

 

I agree the 13:30 [close of] ES Bar ends the down sequence. You appear to have that correct. However, I don't see how the market "proved you wrong" today. Perhaps, you've viewed today (08-12-2009) incorrectly, rather than, viewing yesterday (08-11-2009) incorrectly.

 

HTH.

 

- Spydertrader

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'm not really sure I understand your question.

 

I agree the 13:30 [close of] ES Bar ends the down sequence. You appear to have that correct. However, I don't see how the market "proved you wrong" today. Perhaps, you've viewed today (08-12-2009) incorrectly, rather than, viewing yesterday (08-11-2009) incorrectly.

 

HTH.

 

- Spydertrader

 

Hi Spydertrader

 

Thank you for your comments. Is the attached chart showing the correct view from 08/11/2009 to 08/12/2009 ? Sorry for not providing the gausssians, because I did the chart in a morning hurry. TIA

5aa70f139eae4_Aug11Aug12.thumb.gif.5b4991bca08594c4c2891f7bddc60d68.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some days the show appears to be run by a guy named Klaus, while on others it's a drug-crazed hippee or Mr. Magoo. Same show. Different pacing.

 

Thank you. Thank you very much. Thank you.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is the attached chart showing the correct view from 08/11/2009 to 08/12/2009?

 

If you have the correct view on your chart, what must the market create next? If you do not have the correct view on your chart, what do you expect to see from the market?

 

Sorry for not providing the gausssians, because I did the chart in a morning hurry.

 

The Gaussians provide the answers to all of your questions. Annotating a chart without Gaussians is like trying to watch a movie with your eyes closed. Sure you might be able to listen in and follow along for a while, but you'll definitiely lose the plot before you run out of popcorn.

 

HTH.

 

- Spydertrader

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Are there exercises to train the mind/eye how to spot the correct gaussian formations? As I look for continuation and change, the volume formations are the most difficult to interpret. For example, in a B2R trend, you see volume bars increasing real time. Then as the next bar develops, intra bar, you see it decreasing in volume, and price. At this point I am thinking change. Then the next bar, increases in B, and continues thus faking you out with the previous bar. I see this happen 1-2 bar sequences, which makes it extremely difficult to recognize when the second half of the gaussian formation is beginning to form. Is it just me having this issue or is this holding back several others as well?

 

- Monkman

5aa70f13c7ca3_8-13-2009es.thumb.jpg.4a2140ac2dc023f865ba9256c1c45264.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A trader can easily learn to differentiate the various tapes, traverses and channels formed by the market, as well as the sequences of Price and Volume which landmark these specific events, by starting with a known entity - one which exhibits certainty as defined by the market itself. Beginning with 10:10 AM on 7-13-2009, and continuing through until 15:30 PM on 8-5-2009 the market has provided just such an event. In addition, beginning with the very same 15:30 PM Bar on 8-5-2009, move forward until 13:30 PM on 8-11-2009 in order to see the exact same event, but in the opposite direction.

 

This Channel Drill requires the trader to construct their charts in such a fashion that one knows with 100% certainty the end has arrived for both entities described above. Whatever solution works for one part of a chart, must work for all charts in the time frames mentioned.

 

Two possible outcomes exist.

 

1. A trader accurately (and more importantly consistantly) annotates a chart and arrives at the correct outcome.

 

2. A trader uses "what works for them" and does not arrive at the correct outcome.

 

In either case, the market has provided everything required to arrive at the correct endpoint in both scenarios.

 

HTH.

 

- Spydertrader

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
starting with a known entity - one which exhibits certainty as defined by the market itself. Beginning with 10:10 AM on 7-13-2009, and continuing through until 15:30 PM on 8-5-2009 the market has provided just such an event. In addition, beginning with the very same 15:30 PM Bar on 8-5-2009, move forward until 13:30 PM on 8-11-2009 in order to see the exact same event, but in the opposite direction.

 

- Spydertrader

 

 

 

I have highlighted the areas you are referring to.

Light orange is the first time frame 7-13-2009and continuing through until 15:30 PM on 8-5-2009.

 

Second time frame is highlighted in pink 15:30 PM Bar on 8-5-2009 until 13:30 PM on 8-11-2009

 

 

In this time frame I do not see what you are referring to at all.

5aa70f13d0d51_consolidated5minutees.thumb.jpg.3a952fac45259e6387dccd5bc899622d.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
A trader can easily learn to differentiate the various tapes, traverses and channels formed by the market, as well as the sequences of Price and Volume which landmark these specific events, by starting with a known entity - one which exhibits certainty as defined by the market itself. Beginning with 10:10 AM on 7-13-2009, and continuing through until 15:30 PM on 8-5-2009 the market has provided just such an event. In addition, beginning with the very same 15:30 PM Bar on 8-5-2009, move forward until 13:30 PM on 8-11-2009 in order to see the exact same event, but in the opposite direction.

 

This Channel Drill requires the trader to construct their charts in such a fashion that one knows with 100% certainty the end has arrived for both entities described above. Whatever solution works for one part of a chart, must work for all charts in the time frames mentioned.

 

Two possible outcomes exist.

 

1. A trader accurately (and more importantly consistantly) annotates a chart and arrives at the correct outcome.

 

2. A trader uses "what works for them" and does not arrive at the correct outcome.

 

In either case, the market has provided everything required to arrive at the correct endpoint in both scenarios.

 

HTH.

 

- Spydertrader

 

A quick look shows me that the 15:30 PM Bar on 8-5-2009 -> 13:30 PM on 8-11-2009 period consists of a down channel, an up channel and a down channel, where each channel has 3 traverses. (I still had my annotations...)

 

--

innersky

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's my effort for the day. I tried out placing point 2 of the traverse at the point of volume sequence completion (12:00 today) as discussed yesterday. It does aid in "seeing" the volume sequences when looking at the price pane.

 

I also made a concerted effort to annotate trendlines in a consistent way (line thickness, color scheme) in order to better see the markets sequences. I hope you don't mind Ehorn, but I borrowed your coloring convention.

 

Also, my placement for point 1 of the down traverse is of note (15:40 bar yesterday). I arrived at it by removing the overnight gap mentally.

If I didn't remove the gap, the 13:05 bar today would have gone above yesterdays 15:40 bar, making a point 3 down traverse geometrically impossible. This would have definitely caused me to know that my MADA was wrong and made me go fix my annotations. With the mental shift of bars, the down traverse remained in play and I continued on from point 3 into the traverse.

 

I'm curious to see other people's annotations today to see how the gap was dealt with.

08132009es5min.thumb.jpg.a13747e228f5a76003c9dde5f066d5f7.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
A trader can easily learn to differentiate the various tapes, traverses and channels formed by the market, as well as the sequences of Price and Volume which landmark these specific events, by starting with a known entity - one which exhibits certainty as defined by the market itself. Beginning with 10:10 AM on 7-13-2009, and continuing through until 15:30 PM on 8-5-2009 the market has provided just such an event. In addition, beginning with the very same 15:30 PM Bar on 8-5-2009, move forward until 13:30 PM on 8-11-2009 in order to see the exact same event, but in the opposite direction.

 

This Channel Drill requires the trader to construct their charts in such a fashion that one knows with 100% certainty the end has arrived for both entities described above. Whatever solution works for one part of a chart, must work for all charts in the time frames mentioned.

 

Two possible outcomes exist.

 

1. A trader accurately (and more importantly consistantly) annotates a chart and arrives at the correct outcome.

 

2. A trader uses "what works for them" and does not arrive at the correct outcome.

 

In either case, the market has provided everything required to arrive at the correct endpoint in both scenarios.

 

HTH.

 

- Spydertrader

 

Hi Spydertrader,

 

For each day, do we have to slide the close of the last bar of a certain day to meet the open of the first bar of the following day in the time frame you mention? TIA

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Spyder,

 

Would you be kind enough to post a fully annotated chart in the near future ?

Just one chart would be very generous, any day of your choice.

 

So very appreciated.

 

+1! I would sincerely suggest Spydertrader to post annotated charts on 08/11/2009 and 08/12/2009 to help traders and traders will be all over the world who are working on " learning to learn".

 

08/11/2009 is the day where sentiment changed; thus Down Channel ended and Up Channel began. High level of annotation technique is needed to handle Tapes, Traverses and Channels.

 

08/12/2009 is the day which challenges traders to find the correct bar to place point 2 of a Tape or a Traverse. The difficulty was proved by several traders who posted their annotated charts for 08/12/2009 with different outcome. TIA

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date : 30th November 2021. Market Update – November 30– Stocks at ups & downs. Omicron remains in focus and warnings that it will leave current vaccines far less effective and that it will take time to modify and produce new ones has seen markets adjusting growth forecasts and central bank projections.   USD (USDIndex 96.00 up from 95.92 low) saw a fresh wave of risk aversion as Treasuries sold off, but cautiously with only a modest back up in yields, & Stocks bounced significantly with the USA100 jumping over 2% intraday with IT a big winner. It closed with a 1.88% gain, with the USA500 1.3% firmer, and the USA30 up 0.68%. Wall Street stocks closed higher as investors were hopeful that the Omicron coronavirus variant would not lead to lockdowns after reassurance from US President Joe Biden. Moderna’s CEO told the FT that existing vaccines will be less effective and that it may take months before modified vaccines are available at scale. #Moderna +12.73% yesterday. US Yields 10- and 30-year rates were up just over 3 bps to 1.51% and 1.859%, respectively, with the 2-year 1bps higher at 0.508% The 10-year is currently corrected -3.9 bp to 1.46%, but it is still in negative territory, at -1.05% on Tuesday, keeping gold’s opportunity cost low. Equities – Topix and Nikkei are down -1.0% and -1.6% respectively, Hang Seng lost -2.3%, the CSI 300 -0.6%, while the ASX outperformed with a modest gain of 0.2%. USOil – down by 2%, drifted to $66.73 – after FT cast doubt on the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines against the Omicron – expectations are growing that OPEC+, will put on hold plans to add 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) of supply in January. Gold spiked to $1795 – World Health Organization said on Monday carried a very high risk of infection surges. #TWTR was UP 12% pre-market on news Dorsey was leaving as CEO – it closed DOWN 2.74%. The USA100 rose+1.88%. FX markets – Yen rallied (a new flight to safety), Aussie and kiwi slide. USDJPY at 112.94, EURUSD now 1.1326 & Cable steadied to 1.3300-1.3330. European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is up 46 ticks, Treasury futures are outperforming and in cash markets the US 10-year rate has corrected -3.9 bp to 1.46% amid a fresh wave of risk aversion. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -1.5% and -1.1% respectively, while a -1.1% drop in the Dow Jones is leading US futures lower. In FX markets both EUR and GBP gained against the Dollar. EGB yields had moved higher against the background of improving risk appetite and a jump in German inflation yesterday, but while Eurozone HICP today is likely to exceed forecasts, central bankers have already been out in force to play down the importance of the number for the central bank outlook and rate expectations. Virus developments will also help to take the sting out of the number. Today – German labour market data, EU Inflation, Canadian GDP and US Consumer confidence are due today. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen are due to testify before the US Senate Banking Committee at 15:00 GMT. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.68%) Risk-sensitive currencies slid and safe havens gained. AUDJPY dropped to 80 lows (S2). Currently MAs point rightwards, MACD signal line & histogram below 0, RSI rising above 30 but Stochastic OS. Hence a mixed picture intraday. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date : 29th November 2021. Market Update – November 29 – Omicron dominates sentiment. USD (USDIndex 96.30) recovers from Fridays slump (95.98), Stocks lost over –2.2% in thin half-day trading, Oil FUTS lost –13%, Gold slumped and Yields tanked (10-yr 1.482%) on a safe haven (JPY & CHF bid) risk off day. (and a strange carry trade bid for EUR). Weekend news, as Countries block flights and tighten restricts, but first Omicron cases in SA appear mild and hospitalizations have not spiked, has seen a bounce in sentiment and Asian markets. Pfizer suggested it would take 100 days to adapt new vaccine, if required. US Yields 10yr trades up 5.1 bp at 1.52%, after Friday’s slump. Equities – tanked in thin and short day on Friday USA500 -106.84 (-2.27%) at 45941 – USA500.F trades higher at 4639. USOil – collapsed to $67.08 – now up nearly $4 at $71.00. OPEC+ have delayed this weeks meeting by 2 days & likely to delay planned January production increases. Gold spiked under $1780, has bounced to $1795 but struggles to recoup $1800   FX markets – EURUSD now 1.1270, after a +125pip rally on Friday, USDJPY now 113.36, from 115.50 to 113.00 on Friday & Cable back to 1.3325. Overnight – JPY Retail Sales recover but miss expectations (0.9% vs 1.2% & -0.5% last time). European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is down -27 ticks, US futures are also in the red & the US 10-year rate is up 5.1 bp at 1.52%. Stock markets remained under pressure during the Asian part of the session, but DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 1.2% and 1.3% respectively and a 1.2% rise in the NASDAQ is leading US futures higher. A part reversal of Friday’s flows then as virus developments remain in focus. Travel restrictions are making a come back and the services sector in particular is facing fresh pain, but as Lagarde suggested over the weekend, the impact of Omicron is unlikely to throw economies back to the situation at the start of the pandemic, meaning the overall situation has not really changed. We continue to see the ECB on course to end PEPP purchases on time in March next year, although developments will add to the arguments of those who want to keep the flexibility on the distribution of asset purchases at least for future emergencies. The BoE meanwhile may be postponing the planned rate hike into next year. Today – German regional and national CPIs, Eurozone Consumer Confidence (final), US Pending Home Sales, ECB’s de Guindos, Schnabel, Lagarde, Fed’s Williams, Powell. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADCHF (1.00%) The risk-off collapse on Friday 0.7400-0.7200 has recovered to 0.7280. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram rising but still below 0 line, RSI 53.80 & rising H1 ATR 0.0018, Daily ATR 0.0062. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Forex Trading is considered to be only profitable, if you have practice Forex Trading, till you have mastered the skills and knowledge to survive in the Forex Market.
    • Though there are many videos available online on Youtube, you cannot actually learn through them, if you don't practice in the Forex Real Market.
    • USDJPY PRICE OUTFLOW IS DRAWN BY SELLERS BACK TO 114.840   USDJPY Price Analysis – November 25 USDJPY price outflow is being held back as a consequence of bears causing opposition to the market influence. The price structure of the market strives to maintain an uptrend configuration under a bullish influence. However, the sellers are causing some resistance in the market, which is causing a hold in the market configuration. Because of this conflict in the market, the outflow of the bulls in the market will be held back to the 114.840 critical level. USDJPY Critical Levels Resistance Levels: 114.840, 112.790 Support Levels: 110.800, 109.100 USDJPY Long Term Trend: Bullish The bullish outflow price structure initially began with the expansive breadth of consolidation. The market was birthed after a strong price expansion before the bullish uprise. The price undulated between the breadth of the 110.800 and 109.100 significant price levels. As a result of this accumulation, the price was then pushed out to higher levels. With the continuation of the market expansion, buyers outflow upward, with the bulls taking hold of the market. Furthermore, price continues to experience more outflows as several structural levels were broken. When USDJPY eventually gets to the 112.790 level, the price resumes its accumulation phase. The market encountered a short phase of expansion before resuming bullish persistence. The price finally breaks through the 114.840 significant level and we expect a withdrawal back to this price level before bullish engagement. The Tensile Strength indicator shows the resilience of the market influence as the market is set to resume its bullish leverage after sellers retreat. USDJPY Short Term Trend: Bearish The 4-hour chart of USDJPY shows the price configuration riding upward following a strong force that broke through the 114.840 critical level. The price is now set in a retreat motion as the price is seen to be pulling away to the 114.840 price level. The Moving Average Convergence and Divergence indicator shows the market’s prevalent direction as the price is set on a pullback course to the 114.840 critical level before bullish outflow.   Source: https://learn2.trade
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.