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Looking at this, how would you have known that any bar after bar 68 would/could NOT be the BO of the thick red down container? Or maybe it was?

 

The answers are somewhere within:

 

a) Order of events

b) Peaks and throughs

c) Lateral

d) Fractal nesting of containers

e) Gaussians

 

In THIS example I was "confident" that we would end up the way it is right now. However trading it with real money I would probably had been whipsawed.

 

By now maybe some of you already start to see how they would know that they know what must come next. I hope to join you soon. ;)

 

Good luck.

 

Review the chart in gucci's #2718 post(page 272).Pay close attention to the dark blue up container's tls,dark red down container's tls and the thicker light green container's tls(at the extreme top and bottom of the chart).The thicker light green container is the slowest container that the market is building with the dark blue and dark red containers.On bar 58 the market bo of the dark blue up containers rtl on irv.What ensued was a faster down container that after pt 3(bar 62) ve'ed the ltl(bar 65).When the market builds one thing(dark blue up container) it usually builds another thing(possible larger slower down container) in the opposite direction.So if a trader is anticipating a larger slower down container being build they would read the ve at bar 65 was a possible pt 2 of the larger slower down container.When the market moves from pt 2 to pt 3(in a larger slower down container) it many times moves left to right in a lateral and/or slightly sideways up.Monitoring for a overall pace dropoff in a non-dom is very important .Look at the pace levels in the previous dark blue up container.Now look at the pace levels in this container so far.See the large dropoff in pace in this non-dom move.Notice the lateral that started on bar 65.See the non-dom sequence that played out starting on bar 68 and ending on bar 76 with the ibgs at the top of the lateral.On bar 77 the market confirmed(by making a LL) that the high of bar 76 was the pt 3 of the slower down container the market was building.This is where you fan your rtl to contain the price action(see gucci's red down container's rtl).Check out the irv on bar 77 and the prv irv on bar 78 that is just forming.After pt 3 in a down container the market always has irv.Once the market broke out of the bookmark(bar 65 swing low or pt 2) on bar 77 on irv,the next step is to monitor what happens during the traverse to the ltl of the slower down container.Look for sequence completion of the faster and slower down container being build.Next monitor for a signal for change that leads to a retrace back to the rtl.Then at some point a rtl bo on ibv will occur that begins building another dark blue slower up container to complete building the thicker light green slowest container.Wash,rinse,repeat.hth

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Is this always the case?

TIA

 

From what I understand now, an FTT is a failure to traverse to the LTL and it must happen on a dominant move. So conversely, if it hit the LTL, then it can't be an FTT.

 

A VE can be different in that what appears to end might already have a lower fractal m1 m2 move for the ftt to occur within the 5 min bar (credit to EZ).

 

According to Jack, an FTT must occur on a dominant traverse. I would understand that to be when looking for an FTT on the tape fractal, I would need to see a dominant bar in this case. I can't say if that is always the case but right now, this is what I look for prior to any FTT.

 

emac

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I must be missing something? Please see attached...BTW, this bar-by-bar stuff is super helpful- thanks!!!

 

Good eye.Actually my comments apply to the next bar (bar 48).hth

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Review the chart in gucci's #2718 post(page 272).Pay close attention to the dark blue up container's tls,dark red down container's tls and the thicker light green container's tls(at the extreme top and bottom of the chart).The thicker light green container is the slowest container that the market is building with the dark blue and dark red containers.On bar 58 the market bo of the dark blue up containers rtl on irv....

 

Hi patrader,

 

Are you referring to the same chart in gucci's #2718 post ? If so, bar 58, which should be at 2:20 pm (EST) - it is showing dbv and not bo of the dark blue channel. So I am not sure which chart are you referring to or the time on the chart is not on EST ?

 

TQ.

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2 Newbie question:

 

You have 4 fractals on the chart. I thought there were normally 3 and you trade the middle one for coarse level.... Is the green lt channel the 4th one and would you trade the dark green/ orange traverses for coarse?

pat.thumb.gif.30b8da03caa00f1e7b6c6b0126099205.gif

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Hi patrader,

 

Are you referring to the same chart in gucci's #2718 post ? If so, bar 58, which should be at 2:20 pm (EST) - it is showing dbv and not bo of the dark blue channel. So I am not sure which chart are you referring to or the time on the chart is not on EST ?

 

TQ.

 

I think he starts numbering the bars at the left side of the screenshot, not at the open...see the chart in my last post for the bar numbers....

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Hi patrader,

 

Are you referring to the same chart in gucci's #2718 post ? If so, bar 58, which should be at 2:20 pm (EST) - it is showing dbv and not bo of the dark blue channel. So I am not sure which chart are you referring to or the time on the chart is not on EST ?

 

TQ.

 

Don't you just luv(not) this form of communication.In frenchfry's #2757 post there is a chart that shows a portion of gucci's larger chart from #2718 post.Frenchfry was so kind to put bar numbers on his chart post.My comments about bar numbers refer to bars on frenchfry's chart with matching numbers.Vienna was nice enough to post a chart (#2781)that highlites the bars in question.Use gucci's chart for bigger picture (slower containers) and frenchfry's for more detail on the last slower down container and the faster containers nested within it.hth

Edited by patrader

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(using Gucci's DAX H11 chart) Which set of annotations makes more sense?

a) green, red

b) blue, purple

To me, they both make sense. Starting from the same volume information, they're intended to highlight different things:

a) dominance

b) sub-fractals.

5aa710615ff51_guccidaxh11110309v.thumb.jpg.9f90635106b9eb7ca2bcc56a6dffff3c.jpg

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Thank you to:

 

pr0crast, cnms, cory, patrader and emac

 

for sharing your point of view!

 

cnms,

 

looking at your gaussians I'm sure in realtime I would have drawn them differently. The reason is surely a gap in my knowledge and because I only see "chaos" in the volume pane.

 

When I put price into containers then volume is making peaks and throughs. However the sequence of B2B2R2B or R2R2B2R is not visible for all containers. I can for example see in one container a B2B followed by another container which shows R2R. So the art seems to be to see what is not there (because it is only visible in smaller time frames?) and/or sometimes ignore what you see and simply follow how price moves inside your current container(s) and nests?

 

Enclose you can see what I would have drawn and above what I mean by a container can have incomplete volume sequences.

 

Welcome back to a serious discussion.

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Thanks Gucci for the chart ---it highlights a few of my delimmas and I'm hoping to sort some of them out once and for all.

 

In my opinion

1) We can't have FTT at any of these bars because we have yet to have return to Dom---as defined by Vol. on a level of that at red "a" or previous black peak???? I'm just guessing for in realtime I would have seen the 2nd bar as a Jakari change and the 3rd as FTT for sure

 

2) On an unrelated topic----how can Pt. 1 be a FTT when it does in fact traverse and even extend on what seems to be an acceleration of Pace??!!!!

 

3) Assuming FTT at Pt.1, how can Pt. 3 be so far into the previous up traverse?? After the BO of the lateral at Pt.2 (which moved so far into the previous) I would have ceased to look for Pt.3 and assumed an error in annotation leading to a continuation of Dom. Up

 

Could anyone give some insight---

 

Vienna--I really appreciate your questions and can relate to your frustration.

 

 

Sorry for being tardy in response.

 

Re.1. You are right. On the three bars in question we do not have a dominant tape. Look closely at those bars. Note the first encreasing vol results from the bo of a pennant. Right after this bar you get decreasing vol. The third bar shows you all of this volume resulted from traders who were on the wrong side of the market in this pennant. No comparison with any peaks. HINT!!! Look at the 12:30 bar and the lateral that it formed...(not properly annotated on my chart) Is this lateral over at the time in question? Do you understand now how important thorough annotations can be?

 

Re.2. You can get a completion of the faster fractal along with the completion of the sequences on the slower fractal to witness such an occurance. Read the post from Jack that was linked here.

 

Re.3 Well, you can assume anything you want, but I do not remember that there is any requirement for a point 3 being far or not to far into the previous traverse. Stop inventing.

 

HTH.

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... (because it is only visible in smaller time frames?) ...

 

if its visible in smaller tf then its visible on bigger tf, why?

 

because a smaller container builds a larger container.

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Thank you to:

 

pr0crast, cnms, cory, patrader and emac

 

for sharing your point of view!

 

cnms,

 

looking at your gaussians I'm sure in realtime I would have drawn them differently. The reason is surely a gap in my knowledge and because I only see "chaos" in the volume pane.

 

When I put price into containers then volume is making peaks and throughs. However the sequence of B2B2R2B or R2R2B2R is not visible for all containers. I can for example see in one container a B2B followed by another container which shows R2R. So the art seems to be to see what is not there (because it is only visible in smaller time frames?) and/or sometimes ignore what you see and simply follow how price moves inside your current container(s) and nests?

 

Enclose you can see what I would have drawn and above what I mean by a container can have incomplete volume sequences.

I've marked on your char what I see at that level. It's very close to what you've drawn when you relied on volume.

 

I don't think it's an "art", and I don't think there's ever a situation in which I have to "ignore" what I see. There might be possible to correctly monitor just watching how the price moves, but for me volume is of paramount importance. Jack stated that he could trade just based on volume data, and I think it's possible.

5aa71061a4046_ffsdaxh11110309-.thumb.jpg.e8f40be8083059d2e4ed455809b8ba7c.jpg

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if its visible in smaller tf then its visible on bigger tf, why?

 

because a smaller container builds a larger container.

 

Hi Cory,

 

just to be sure we mean the same with tf (time frame)... what I meant was that if you look at that chart example, you see a 5 min chart with a few "containers" (I mean the smallest that Gucci drew). Looking at the corresponding volume peaks an throughs the "complete" sequence (i.e.B2B2R2B) is nearly never completely visible on that (container)level. However if I would go down in the "time frame" and open a 1 min or 2 min chart then looking at the same containers you would probably see the complete volume sequence for that container.

 

Did you mean the same?

 

Thanks.

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Hi Cory,

... However if I would go down in the "time frame" and open a 1 min or 2 min chart then looking at the same containers you would probably see the complete volume sequence for that container.

 

Did you mean the same?

 

Thanks.

 

 

as long as you see a complete volume sequence and a container for that vol sequence then you know wmcn, if you know wmcn then you can enter.

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I'm partway through this thread, so excuse me if this has been covered, but if any other contributors to the thread have or would like to start a chat room to discuss critique execution, please PM me.

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I have a quick question regarding PRV. Pardon me if this is a concept that is too remedial for this thread. If it is, I am happy to hold off on it while I search for it myself.

 

Is there a "too early" to use PRV. Obviously, at the start of every bar we have people who initiate due to various systems. This is especially true for the start of day where things "synch" up.

 

Therefore, is there perhaps a certain threshold one should be using of DU for instance (if trading stocks) so that these effects are countered?

 

This is not mentioned in journals one nor journal 2 on the equities thread so maybe this is a non-issue completely. Obviously, its not a pre-requisite.

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Great post. I am a 25 year student of volume and range analysis and I would urge that all volume is not created equal. In other words, volume seems to have some analytical or predictive value only when the volume correlates to an instrument that is not dependent on the price movement of another instrument. For instance, the ES (Emini S&P 500)--when the S&P 500 Cash Index is increasing in price, the ES will follow, regardless of the volume. A multitude of program traders assure the price of the two instruments stay within fair market value of one another. But this cannot mean that the ES volume holds predictive value for the cash index it follows. With that said, it can reasonably be argued that the ES influences the cash market prior to the cash market opening. But that influence is shortly lived. In the end, and as the old saying goes, cash is king.

 

The people here can get a little touchy ;) Thanks for posing an extremely interesting question. Though volume is always useful, I have found it useful in oddly different ways depending on the instrument being traded (i.e. tick volume on Forex). This tells me that there is a fundamental difference in what's going on, but I don't really know what. I guess I don't really care either, but it's interesting to think about.

 

Something to ponder: Despite the fact that there are arbitrage systems out there keeping the cash and futures in line, you can admit that there are traders of ALL TYPES on the ES, trading for entirely different reasons and using different techniques. This means that there are all kinds of orders floating that may or may not be paying explicit attention to the cash index. When price MUST pass through an area because an arbitrage opportunity, it has to pass through those floating orders. That prints as "volume". If we see a lot of that, we know which direction the market is moving in, resistance be damned. Thankfully, the market tends to move in waves, which creates opportunities if you are confident in its current direction.

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I'm stuck. Today, March 23, at 14:50, the 2 min YM began a run up that lasted for about 8 minutes. At the same time volume was decreasing. This was indicative of a black non dom retrace in a red channel, but it was a dom move in a black channel. Therefore, this would suggest I was on the wrong fractal. But if there is another larger red fractal that makes sense of this, I can't find it. What am I missing? Any explanation of this would be helpful to me. TIA.

2011-03-23_1814.thumb.png.21f8308a214205383af413fba7592bd9.png

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I'm stuck. Today, March 23, at 14:50, the 2 min YM began a run up that lasted for about 8 minutes. At the same time volume was decreasing. This was indicative of a black non dom retrace in a red channel, but it was a dom move in a black channel. Therefore, this would suggest I was on the wrong fractal. But if there is another larger red fractal that makes sense of this, I can't find it. What am I missing? Any explanation of this would be helpful to me. TIA.

 

Look at the range, open, and close of each of those bars on decreasing volume. The range is getting smaller, and the close is getting lower and lower on the bar. In other words, the 2m bars are becoming less and less "black" as the balance between buyers and sellers shifts. If you were looking at 30 second bars, you'd probably see a B2R2B2R2B2R2B-ftt-2R2R. Not that you should look at 30 second bars... but the price action is telling a story.

 

Looking at 5m ES bars, you see the same thing play out all the time.

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I'm stuck. Today, March 23, at 14:50, the 2 min YM began a run up that lasted for about 8 minutes. At the same time volume was decreasing. This was indicative of a black non dom retrace in a red channel, but it was a dom move in a black channel. Therefore, this would suggest I was on the wrong fractal. But if there is another larger red fractal that makes sense of this, I can't find it. What am I missing? Any explanation of this would be helpful to me. TIA.

 

Gaussians must match your trend lines. Even though volume peaked early in the move, price continued in the dominant direction. There hasn't been any change yet. Continue the gaussian to match the price peak or price trough.

 

On the flip side sometimes you may be drawing a decreasing gaussian to or through an increasing volume bar. For example if you went B2B pt1 to pt2, and then in the middle of going 2R (decreasing volume with decreasing price) you get an increasing volume bar, would you change your decreasing red gaussian to increasing red? Or draw in an R2R for that leg? No. There may be a dominant red on a lower fractal, but not on the same level you're annotating.

 

One suggestion. Posting a larger section of the YM chart and the ES would have been helpful.

 

Annotating gaussians to the max/min of price movement is different from some of the older charts you may have seen on another site.

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Gaussians must match your trend lines.

In case this seems arbitrary or counter intuitive, since gaussians are supposed to define the channel -- not the other way around, this statement reflects the often inexact nature of our 5 minute market lens and the need to account for that rather than blindly go by what the chart says. If you use your imagination to look into the 5m bar and think through what happened, and where the dominant volume was, your gaussians will match your trend lines.

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Just wanted to clear up somethings with Journal 1 and Journal 2 that Spydertrader was involved with at ET.

 

A programmer has some questions for me.

 

Are the indicators used (MACD, Stochastic) based on daily bars, if not on what are they based?"

 

Are they basd on daily bars, but entries are end of bar based on 30 minute bars?

 

With the 30 Minute bars, so are buys and sells only on 30 minute close of bars or intrabar? If intrabar, do we need the 30 minute bars for something?

 

Thanks!

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    • Date : 24th November 2021. Market Update – November 24 – USD & Yields Higher, Stocks Mixed, Oil Recovers. Trading Leveraged Products is risky USD (USDIndex 96.50) holds on at highs; EM currencies under particular pressure. (TRY lost 15% after Erdogan refused a rate rise). RBNZ raised rates but NZD fell (like the last time they raised rates!) JPY Inflation 2 ticks better than expected. USDJPY at January 2017 levels around 115.00. PMI data better across the globe, Stocks mixed in US & Asia, Yields bid, Oil recovered significantly and Gold pressured by yields. Biden invites Taiwan to its “Summit for Democracy”, WHO talks of additional 700k Covid deaths across Europe (Slovakia latest to talk lockdowns). US Yields 10yr trades at 1.667%, down from yesterday’s 1.684% high. Equities Mixed. Musk sold more stock, Banks & Oil majors lead. USA500 +7.76 (0.17%) at 4690 – USA500.F trades lower at 4684. USOil – rallied over 3% to $78.20 highs despite global strategic reserves being sold to cool prices. Gold found a floor at 1782, but struggles to recoup $1800 at $1790. FX markets – EURUSD down to 1.1245, USDJPY over 115.23, earlier now at 114.88 & Cable back to 1.3375. European Open – December 10-yr Bund future up 26 ticks, US futures also broadly higher. RBNZ delivered expected rate hike & markets seem to be scaling back fears of escalating inflation as even dovish leaning BoE & ECB members highlight risk of second round effects. ECB VP Guindos highlighted overnight that the drivers of inflation are becoming more structural, which adds to signals that the CB is finally ready to start reining in stimulus. DAX & FTSE 100 futures currently up 0.3% & 0.2% respectively. Today – Big data day ahead of Thanksgiving Weekend. – German Ifo, US Weekly Claims GDP, PCE, Durables, FOMC Mins. & ECB speak Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.77%) RBNZ in-line but Dovish, sank from breach of 80.00 yesterday to 79.24, and 79.40 now. Faster MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram falling & below 0 line, RSI 35 & weak, Stochs OS. H1 ATR 0.17, Daily ATR 0.70. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • EURUSD HOVERS NEAR MULTI-MONTH LOW, UNDER 1.1250 LEVEL   EURUSD Price Analysis – November 24 Throughout the session, the EURUSD pair remained on the losing side and was last seen moving with considerable losses around the 1.1250-36 level. The announcement that the White House has opted to reappoint incumbent Fed Chair Jerome Powell for a second term sparked the recent strong dip. The spot is trading at 1.1253 at the time of writing, down 0.25 percent on the day. Key Levels Resistance Levels: 1.1525, 1.1422, 1.1300 Support Levels: 1.1200, 1. 1150, 1.1100 EURUSD Long term Trend: Bearish EURUSD has sunk to fresh multi-day lows, as seen on the daily chart, after extending the recent breach beneath the moving averages 5 around the 1.1300 level. This exposes the possibility of a deeper pullback and a re-test of the psychological support around 1.1200. Under the 1.1200 level, the euro’s underlying bullish attitude is in jeopardy. Overall, the EURUSD stays bearish while trading under the major horizontal support turned resistance and significant level at 1.1422. A breakout of the 1.1300 level, on the other hand, would aim for the 1.1350 level on the way to the 1.1400 zones. The fall of the 1.1200 zones, in the alternative scenario, is viewed as a bearish continuation indicator. EURUSD Short term Trend: Bearish The risk is weighted to the negative on the 4-hour chart, as the pair is developing below the firmly bearish 5 and 13 moving averages. Technical indicators have shifted to the downside, with negative levels. However, in the present scenario, the RSI has not yet reached oversold territory, allowing for more selling. On the upside, a break over the modest resistance level of 1.1300 might shift the intraday bias to neutral. On the downside, the 1.1200 zones provide initial support. The next important level of support is around the 1.1150 mark. If there are any more losses, the 1.1100 extension level of the low decline may be tested. Source: https://learn2.trade 
    • IS IT RATIONAL TO SETTLE FOR 10% RETURNS PER MONTH? “One of the secrets few know and fewer implement when it comes to trading success is that you have to really care about doing well. These days, I see a lot of traders not caring enough, not prioritizing learning about trading, and making pathetic weak-willed excuses.” – Chris T. Perfectionism – a bane of the trading world When people look for a solution to their trading problems, they tend to look for the solution in the wrong places, having the wrong mindset. One problem with most traders is perfectionism. For instance, we tend to go to those who promise us 50% to 100% per week or month. If someone gives an estimate of 5% profits per month, we would think that is too small. If an investment salesperson promises huge returns in a short period of time, we’re drawn to them. What if I tell you that 5% per month is good returns on your trading or investment, would you agree with me? Is 60% growth per annum not good enough? Many years ago, one of my mentors in the financial industry told me that, even 20% growth per annum is good. In schools, we tend to ridicule those who make average grades and praise those who make excellent grades. The same is true of the world of sports. Do you think great sports teams win all their matches always? No! But they do well over time. Are 10% gains per month too low? Now let me ask these questions: How much percentage do you earn on your savings account per annum? How much do you earn on your fixed deposit account per month? How many people can pay off their mortgages within one year? If you buy a bus, to use for commercial purposes, is it easy for you to recover your money in one year? Can you buy a property and sell it for 100% profit within 10 months? If you found a startup, how long do you think it would take you to start making profits? Please attempt to answer these questions yourself, based on real-life experiences. Now, back to the question that makes the last subheading: Are 10% gains per month too low? Why do we tend to be unrealistic and fallacious when it comes to online trading? Making 10% returns per month from Learn2.trade crypto signals One good thing about the margin trading of cryptos is that you can make money, both in bull and bear markets. You don’t make money only when the price is going up. If your timing and methodology are right, you can predict a downward movement or an upward movement and participate in them. Learn2.trade provides quality crypto signals to interested traders. Each signal comes with stop loss and take profit targets. Sometimes a trade is closed before the stop or the target is hit. We use 5 types of orders for the crypto signals. They are Instant Execution, also known as Market Execution, Buy Limit, Sell Limit, Buy Stop, and Sell Stop. Generating an average of 2 – 3 signals per day, we also use risk settings that are usually around 1% per trade and we attempt to gain more than we risk. As these signals are sent, we ensure that we also use them, practicing what we preach. Learn2.trade crypto signals – recent performances Please check the image below to peruse what has been made recently. You see can that we use stop loss, and use small lot sizes, relative to the size of the accounts. It just doesn’t make sense to bet too big on an individual trade. You can also see that we have both losses and profits. However, our average profits are bigger than average losses. That is the pedigree of a viable/ promising strategy: Make more money than you lose. Therefore, losses and drawdowns are also tightly controlled so that they don’t have significant effects on the account. These kinds of drawdowns are shallow, for recovery and eventual growth always happen. The markets are difficult but profitable Making consistent, regular profits from the market is hard, but success is possible. When the markets prove difficult, then we only need creative approaches. Markets will continue to prove uneasy and tough, but we will continue to make profits from them, no matter what. We target 10% profits per month, though we make more than this in most cases. 100% profits every 10 months is an enviable achievement. If 10% gains per month are compounded, the results in a few to several years will be amazing. Yes, you should be aware of the power of compounding. Join us today, in this journey of regular, monthly profits. Please see the image above, to know relevant metrics and figures of the recent results of the strategy behind the signals. You can join us here for, few free crypto signals per week: For Cryptos. Or you can hop in, and become our VIP right away, and enjoy all our crypto signals, up to 3 signals per day. Get access to the ability to make 10% or more per month. You can monitor our crypto signals trading performances here: L2T Crypto Signals on MyFxbook   Source: https://learn2.trade   
    • Yes trading currencies is much more risky than trading stocks, since they're not supported by central bank policy efforts but instead freely fluctuation in a very random fashion. Profits can create wrong impression that you learned how to trade but often it is just the product of pure luck. 
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