Reading Charts in Real Time

[thalestrader 14]

Well, what do you know ... USDCAD looks like the real deal.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

USDCAD had a promising start, but the rally fizzled quickly, and managed acoring to what I have been showing here, this would have been a loss of -8 ticks. Had price traded at least as high as 1.0542 from teh 1.0527 entry, I would have comfortable exiting at a breakeven stop. As it were, price made it to 1.0536 and rolled over.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

I was thinking more about the S/R stuff and thought that maybe you put more emphasis on the recent past few days trade than you would on say S/R from a couple weeks or a month ago - would you say that is true?

 

Of course what you call "big picture" S/R is important, and we do keep prior important highs and lows in mind. However, price is going to make all kinds of swings as it works its way to and fro' those levels. Furthermore, we are day trading. Price will not move in a straight line, and we are trying to trade the next decent swing as price makes its way to test more important levels.

 

For the most part, we are looking for trades, given the current environment, that will let us get 20-50 ticks at a first PT, while keeping our loss, should we be wrong, to less than 10 ticks on average. Again, if volatility picks up, these numbers will expand. If volatility contacts further, these numbers will likewise adjust downward. I remember a few years ago there was a period of time when the 6E was putting an a average daily range of just over 60 ticks

 

Reading over some of your recent posts, it would seem to me that you are trading as a day trader, but expecting the moves of a somewhat longer term swing trader. You need to adjust your expectations both to your approach and to what the market is willing and able to give you. From September 2008 to about July 2009, there were many multi-hundred tick move days put in by the majors and the Yen pairs. It even took me a while to reign in my expectations in terms of tick moves as volatilty as drawn back down. I had become accustomed to 50-100 tick PT1's and 100-150 tick PT2's. Those opportunities are just not presenting themselves several times a day like they were months ago.

 

I am no fan of Don Rumsfeld, but I am reminded of something he said years ago, and adjusted to our situation, it would sound like this: "You need to trade the market you got, not the one you want."

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Gabe2004 10]

My AJ trades from last night.

First was a loss of 36 pips (3x12). Pulled the trigger too soon on this one.

2nd trade (same direction as the 1st) had a gain of 12 pips (10 + 2x1)

My 2nd target on the 2nd trade was missed by 1 1/2 ticks 3 times.

I wonder if this is Oanda or just unlucky placement of the target.

Missing targets by 1/2 the spread happened a few times in the last few days.

 

Gabe

[thalestrader 14]

Moved stop up 1.4937. Maybe premature as it hasn't taken out the high yet...

 

EDIT: 0619, possible LH in the making.

 

EDIT: 0639, closed trade at 1.4969 for 59 pips. It's stalling here and I'm not going to be a CENSORED for a tick tonight. Target was set for 1.4975. The gain on the trade averaged across exits was 40 pips. A decent result I thought, especially since the risk was so quickly reduced because it moved. Probably my first real feel for getting things moving as soon as it broke out.

 

Nice trade, Midk. Last night (your morning) I thought the EURUSD looked like it might break up. But I otherwise felt so out of sorts with what the markets were doing, I doubted I was seeing it correctly. Well done!

 

As an aside, I do let me nine year old daughter read these posts, so maybe we could avoid certain types of language in our posts, etc.

 

Congratulations on that EURUSD trade!

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[MidKnight 12]

For the most part, we are looking for trades, given the current environment, that will let us get 20-50 ticks at a first PT, while keeping our loss, should we be wrong, to less than 10 ticks on average. Again, if volatility picks up, these numbers will expand. If volatility contacts further, these numbers will likewise adjust downward. I remember a few years ago there was a period of time when the 6E was putting an a average daily range of just over 60 ticks

 

It's a good point and historically, always a weakness for me. I'm rather slow to adapt to the change, probably mainly out of fear for missing out should the market really break. It's a terribly unprofitable behaviour of mine. I try and chip away at it regularly but it's taking some time....

 

Reading over some of your recent posts, it would seem to me that you are trading as a day trader, but expecting the moves of a somewhat longer term swing trader. You need to adjust your expectations both to your approach and to what the market is willing and able to give you. From September 2008 to about July 2009, there were many multi-hundred tick move days put in by the majors and the Yen pairs. It even took me a while to reign in my expectations in terms of tick moves as volatilty as drawn back down. I had become accustomed to 50-100 tick PT1's and 100-150 tick PT2's. Those opportunities are just not presenting themselves several times a day like they were months ago.

 

Yes, its true, Thales. Good observation. Again, linked that behaviour 'fear of missing out'. My trading has always been like this unless I was scalping. My theorized reason why it doesn't seem to bother me when scalping is because the frequency is up and ends up compensating for that fear knowing that the next trade is only minutes away. Scalping isn't how I want to trade though, but it does seem to get rid of some of the psychological issues. Of course, it adds others :doh: Oh, the joy of trading....

[MidKnight 12]

Nice trade, Midk. Last night (your morning) I thought the EURUSD looked like it might break up. But I otherwise felt so out of sorts with what the markets were doing, I doubted I was seeing it correctly. Well done!

 

As an aside, I do let me nine year old daughter read these posts, so maybe we could avoid certain types of language in our posts, etc.

 

Congratulations on that EURUSD trade!

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Thanks Thales. My apologies for the language, I didn't even consider it offensive at the time. It was just that phrase often said. Sorry about that though, I'll pay more attention to my wording in the future.

[thalestrader 14]

Hi Folks,

 

I'm heading out again for most of the day. Here is a look at the current EURUSD.

 

If I were trading this, and the short entry triggered, my stop would go to BE with a print at the dotted Magenta line.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[BlowFish 10]

Hi Folks,

 

I'm heading out again for most of the day. Here is a look at the current EURUSD.

 

 

I like the look of this so probabbly one to fade

[Gabe2004 10]

This is how I feel this morning.

 

Gabe

[Gabe2004 10]

Not connected to any previous post, here is a proposed avatar for Thales.

 

Gabe

[Don4 10]

Still watching eurusd

[Don4 10]

.................

[Don4 10]

....................

[BlowFish 10]

Do you have a minimum R:R Don? I guess you are looking to move the stop up aggresively ? I'd have been inclined to go with a stop under the more recent low at 1.4940, just interested.

 

Edit (which as typing would have been hit)

 

2nd Edit I see you answered that whilst I posted....moving the stop straight up

[Don4 10]

.............. Yes I would follow the fractals up or recent sup&res.

[Dinerotrader 10]

Not to detract from the forex stuff but I thought the movement on crude oil (CL) today might turn out something interesting. If I weren't watching oil I would want to know that this pattern was occuring just to watch.

 

[Don4 10]

...................

[Don4 10]

...............

[brownsfan019 17]

I don't trade via the methods described here, but after seeing many charts posted, if I was to head in this direction I like what don and deadalus have posted. Take it for what it's worth but I see a few attractions of each:

 

Don - entering on the LH or HL candle, which gives an attractive entry point. The same idea I was doing on the daily chart thread that I haven't been able to get to recently.

 

Dae - using what I would consider daytrading charts. For me the 15 min is not a daytrading chart.

 

This is a unique thread where you have at least 3 styles trading the same premise but w/ very different entry rules.

[Don4 10]

First profit hit............... Second profit hit............

Edited November 18, 2009 by Don4

[Dinerotrader 10]

Not to detract from the forex stuff but I thought the movement on crude oil (CL) today might turn out something interesting. If I weren't watching oil I would want to know that this pattern was occuring just to watch.

 

 

I forgot mention that oil inventory comes out at 8:30 arizona time which produces crazy volatility which you saw if you started watching it.

[fxThunder 10]

Watching this for a potential long on usd/chf...

[fxThunder 10]

and now, the corresponding short on eur/usd is also ready.

 

usd/chf long entry already triggered..

[fxThunder 10]

usd/chf - moved stop close to entry.

[forrestang 10]

and now, the corresponding short on eur/usd is also ready.

 

usd/chf long entry already triggered..

 

I shorted that as well.

 

There was a good setup in E/J too, but the spread is so wide