Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

thalestrader

Reading Charts in Real Time

Recommended Posts

Hi Folks,

 

I thought it would be interesting if we had a thread where we could all post charts of potential price moves in real time. These do not have to be actual trades you are taking. The purpose would be for us to learn from one another how to recognize these opportunities in real time. Therefore, when you post a chart, be sure to clearly state the direction in which you anticipate price to move, and the reason you are interpreting price action in that manner. This is not a thread for secrets, show-offs, or salespeople selling systems.

 

 

I'll start off with the GBPUSD here soon after the markets have reopened for trading this Sunday evening. Looks like a potential short trade if there is a break of 1.6421 (For the record, I am not trading this).

 

The first red arrow would have been a nice short entry as the Cable put in a 1-2-3 top per Trader Vic (easy to see after the fact). The second red arrow swas a second chance short entry on the retest of the break of the "2" point on that 1-2-3 top (also easy to see in hindsight).

 

The third red arrow is the current market as price is trying to find support. If that support does not hold, a test of 1.6389 - 1.6406 would be next. I have some family time now, so I'll check in later and update the chart.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

5aa70ee733c2d_6-14-2009GBPUSD.thumb.jpg.66a661b0fabc68d84c9ef06e4bce6569.jpg

Edited by thalestrader

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The third red arrow is the current market as price is trying to find support. If that support does not hold, a test of 1.6389 - 1.6406 would be next.

 

Price did decline into the next area of anticipated support. A nimble scalper should have been able to come away with a respectable amount of ticks even as buyers stepped in at the anticipated support level surrounding Friday's reversal higher.

 

Natural stops are indicated by the dashed red lines. Any trade above there would certainly be enough to have me out of the market if I hadn't already taken myself out.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

5aa70ee739b0b_6-14-2009GBPUSDContinued.thumb.jpg.5e1b632c859882837c750afbf8d1fa2e.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If I were short from the initial post, and I had I stayed short this far into the rally off the low, I'd right now have my stop fixed at a tick or so above that last reaction high.

 

And at this point the stop would be more or less at breakeven (+/- a few ticks). I'd be looking for a retest of the 1.6393 low, and if that breaks and price holds below it, then the green dashed lines would be the next target.

5aa70ee74540b_6-14-2009GBPUSDRevisedStop2.thumb.jpg.ceb5420a2613acdddbfb55151db36b29.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'd be looking for a retest of the 1.6393 low, and if that breaks and price holds below it, then the green dashed lines would be the next target.

 

Price broke 1.6393, and quickly popped back above that level, but not by much. Price will need to break and hold below the shaded rectangular area to keep pressure on the downside and press toward a retest of the dashed green support zone around Friday's low.

 

The chart shows how the rectangular box is calculated using a fib extension tool - as you can see, as I was taking this screen shot, price has started to get in gear to the downside.

5aa70ee74baa0_6-14-2009GBPUSDExtensionSupport.thumb.jpg.2ff8c28637f5ed7ea225876e78a51171.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Price will need to break and hold below the shaded rectangular area to keep pressure on the downside and press toward a retest of the dashed green support zone around Friday's low ... price has started to get in gear to the downside.

 

Closing in on support, and I'd be moving my stop to protect some profit. 1.6401 would be one tick above the highest price reached after price first poked below the 1.6393 support.

 

If you look at a time based chart (1 or 2 minute, for example), and you will se that there was a bit of resistance built at 1.6379. I guess that if I were trading this and I had a position that could be broken in two parts, I'd have a stop on half at 1.6380 and on the other half at 1.6401. I would probably also place a buy limit to take profits on one half at 1.6350.

5aa70ee7516a9_6-14-2009GBPUSDProgresstowardSupport.thumb.jpg.b9a6ab89a759ee11ee73c90f3e2b8f56.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I guess that if I were trading this and I had a position that could be broken in two parts, I'd have a stop on half at 1.6380 and on the other half at 1.6401. I would probably also place a buy limit to take profits on one half at 1.6350.

 

Since I didn't trade this, it is hard to say what I would have done here, but price jumped quick off that 1.6359 and I may have taken some off there.

 

If not, I'd have one stop at 1.6380 (+40 ticks) and one at 1.6401 (+19 ticks), presuming I had a position that cold be broken in twain.

 

See you on the other side of the night.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

PS As I was about to shut down I see that the first stop was just hit, so that would leave one half open with a stop at 1.6401. If I actually had this trade open, and I had just taken +40 ticks on half, I'd pull my limit orders and set up a 50-75 tick trailing stop and then I'd go to bed and see what it looked like in the morning.

5aa70ee757773_6-14-2009GBPUSDProgress1.thumb.jpg.64a10cce5562dac31f3c5ebf3a12f4b6.jpg

5aa70ee75d203_6-14-2009GBPUSD1stStophit1.thumb.jpg.c3745ee2571beef88e6bd351ff927a00.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
See you on the other side of the night ... and see what it looked like in the morning.

 

Hi Folks,

 

Well, had it been a real trade and had I sat up to monitor it through the night, it looks to me that the second hald would have been stopped out at 1.6337 or so for an 80 +/- tick profit.

 

The first 1/2 was stopped out at an admittedly arbitrary stop loss level. The second chart shows the natural progression of stop levels for this "trade." Had the whole trade been managed accoring to the stops dictated by price action itself, then a +80 tick profit on the whole position would have been attainable, and at one point, the open trade equity would have been 100 ticks +/-.

 

Of course, unless one is trading real money it is always a mere academic excercise to conjecture how the trade might actually have turned out, as even sim trading does nothing to train that most important prt of the traders soul - that part that deals with fear, greed, and the desire to be right, or at least not to be wrong.

 

A 50 tick trailing stop would have been stopped out at 1.6354 for +66 ticks; and a 75 tick trailing stop would have been stopped out at just about the same price as the first 1/2 position was last night at 1.6379 for +40 ticks give or take a few ticks.

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

5aa70ee7698fb_6-14-2009GBPUSDComplete.thumb.jpg.f5e68fffa35eb7d2b81357d6adf35190.jpg

5aa70ee76f56e_6-14-2009GBPUSDNaturalStops1.thumb.jpg.a6e527c834aa4fc31e4281cd3cbce34f.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I thought it would be interesting if we had a thread where we could all post charts of potential price moves in real time.

 

Well, I still think it will be interesting, but then again, I watch charts for fun!

 

I'm going to continue with the GBPUSD. I am not trading it, and I do not trade forex (though I occassionally day trade the 6B and 6E).

 

I am looking at a short trade at 1.6301, based on price reversing the HHHL pattern of the afternoon rally with a potential LHLL.

 

Inital stop loss is placed at 1.6329

 

Profit objective is a retest of today's low at 1.6241.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

5aa70ee7bd89a_6-15-2009GBPShortat1point6301.thumb.jpg.4b9d0e2b4eb8fe48c07fac0c725fcb98.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
With that new low, stop loss could probably be lowered to 1.6322

 

 

lowering stop to 1.6313

 

This price decline has a good bit more overlap and choppiness than I'd expect of it for a retest of today's low.

5aa70ee8046b7_6-15-2009GBPReviseStop2.thumb.jpg.15890bee01e41c89052d4d391713e714.jpg

Edited by thalestrader
spelling

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
lowering stop to 1.6313

 

This price decline has a good bit more overlap and choppiness than I'd expect of it for a retest of today's low.

 

Downside price action has started to get into gear with a low at 1.6262, a decline of 40 ticks. A reasonable profit target would be a limit at the 1.6241 low +/- a few ticks.

 

I'd like to see price give a natural stop point within profitable territory so the stop could be safely lowered to capture some of the move.

5aa70ee80b79b_6-15-2009GBPUpdate1.thumb.jpg.d3f36a32b9062152cc126b7fdaed57b1.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'd like to see price give a natural stop point within profitable territory so the stop could be safely lowered to capture some of the move.

 

No sooner had I posted the previous update and price obliged with a new stop point at 1.6277 which would lock in +25 ticks or so.

5aa70ee8132b5_6-15-2009GBPUpdate3.thumb.jpg.a54a1b9ae050235dc9c83b088c5b7922.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

BOOM!

 

 

 

When price chewed through this morning's low it found a nearly 30 tick vacuum waiting for it!

 

Obviously, had one traded it with a limit, the limit would have been filled for approximatley +60 ticks. If one were trailing, then at this point I would probably move my stop down to 5-10 ticks above this morning's low.

5aa70ee818c61_6-15-2009GBPBoom.thumb.jpg.374066ade403f5bc719552cc2d426f4a.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The market has rallied back to test the breakdown from this morning's low. It first rallied to 1.6239 before falling back, and price has now rallied to 1.6242, besting the low by one tick, and has now fallen back a few ticks.

 

If I were still short here, I'd bring my stop down to 1.6243.

5aa70ee81e8db_6-15-2009GBPBounce.thumb.jpg.794b312f3490d019cd3f918f728ea946.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi Folks,

 

This has turned out to be a far sleepier thread than I thought it would be. But reading charts from the "hard right edge" as they say is what this business is all about, so I'll carry on for a bit longer.

 

The first two charts, BNI (+30 cents) and AET (+06 cents) are trades that are finished and in the books.

 

The next two show AKS and NUE consolidating at the highs of the day, and may be long trades for me later in the day (while not a hard and fast rule, I try not to enter new positions between 11:30 am and 1-1:30pm unless the move is exceptionally strong).

 

The last chart shows HUM, and the sometimes result of trading breakouts to new highs/lows. I didn't take HUM, as I saw it after the fact, but I would have been tempted to trade that breakout (which would have resulted in a quick loss.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

5aa70ee8b46ef_6-16-2009BNI1.jpg.7a3f0afb75c3e3dbf9a9deeeea13c6cf.jpg

5aa70ee8b8dd0_6-16-2009AET1.jpg.996976a119ef43cadf5e8f10d8200630.jpg

5aa70ee8bd492_6-16-2009AKS1.jpg.7b1521628a44ddfdb59c4a81c03a774f.jpg

5aa70ee8c2183_6-16-2009NUE1.jpg.174e8ce524518bab1887bee103dba56d.jpg

5aa70ee8c65db_6-16-2009HUM1.jpg.b41f206147bdee7b29d81a87c30326a5.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The next two show AKS and NUE consolidating at the highs of the day, and may be long trades for me later in the day (while not a hard and fast rule, I try not to enter new positions between 11:30 am and 1-1:30pm unless the move is exceptionally strong).

 

NUE false breakout - I didn't take that one either (but not to worry, I do my part to take more than my share of fakeouts!)

5aa70ee8ca60a_6-16-2009NUE2.jpg.a8f27783ecbd3ffd6a7b3ba6fccff820.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thought I would give ths a shot. I am not trading this with real money. My green line show where a new high broke out and would have been my buy point. The red lines shows where my stop would be and the blue lines shows where I think upper resistence might come based on prior days resistence. I would set a sell at the blue line in order to just take profits and move onto the next trade. Hopefully my attachment worked.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=11417&stc=1&d=1245166913

PLD.png.0a4b9aaaa1a4da02aa3aa63283a9ede9.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wanted to post this 6B (Pound Futures) or GBPUSD short trade as it was setting up, but I was busy getting a bunch of orders entered. It has progressed nicely while I was trying to annotate the chart.

 

First chart is the GBPUSD as the trade got started, and the second is the futures contract 6B (it has reached first support/profit target).

5aa70ee8f08f3_6-16-2009GBPUSD1.thumb.jpg.891d55fd9158b60e1ab0d80130c74e10.jpg

5aa70ee9025f2_6-16-20096BShort1.thumb.jpg.7aa326ec4a5ff4b9f3cc200ebdd95927.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Everything has turned to the downside over the past hour so short positions would be what I am giving more attention to. Would you agree?

 

 

Short ZMH (see chart).

 

Yes, all of my positions are shorts right now.

5aa70ee906cd1_6-16-2009ZMHShort41051.jpg.07d88c7d04cf190fbd3a712a727e5623.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date : 18th April 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th April 2019.FX News Today 10-year Treasury yields corrected -2.7 bp to 2.567% and JGB yields are down -1.4 bp at -0.0033%. Asian bonds were generally supported, as stock markets sentiment turned sour again, with South Korean paper underperforming after the BoK left interest rates unchanged, but cut its growth and inflation forecast to 2.5% and 1.1% respectively. Record household debt was one of the factors holding the BoK back from cutting rates for now, and South Korea’s 10-year yield jumped 5.9 bp as the bank tried to calm recession fears. Stock markets generally corrected from the six months high seen yesterday with uninspiring corporate earnings and problems with a new Samsung phone preventing further gains for now. Topix and Nikkei lost -0.96% and -0.80% respectively, after Wall Street closed with slight losses. The Hang Seng is down -0.58%, CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp down -0.44% and -0.39% respectively. The ASX dropped -0.10% and US stock futures are also broadly lower, suggesting ongoing pressure on markets. The front end WTI future meanwhile is trading at USD 63.77 per barrel. Charts of the Day Technician’s Corner EURUSD is still trading around the 1.13 level, and in a channel with key Resistance at 1.1320 and Support at 1.1279. Both are still strong after having bounced yesterday. Indicators are issuing mixed signals. GBPUSD has been stable around the 1.30 level, still unable to break through, fluctuating between the 1.3067-1.3026 Resistance and Support levels. Indicators are giving positive signals. USDJPY started the day below 112.00 mark, as indicators are suggesting a downwards movement. Support remains at 111.80. XAUUSD is trading at year-to-date lows, after breaking through the 1275 Support level. 1270 is the next Support level, with indicators are showing signs of stabilization. Main Macro Events Today EU PMIs (EUR, GMT 08:00) – Manufacturing and Composite PMIs are expected to increase in April, to 47.9 and 51.8 respectively while the Services PMI is forecasted to have remained at 53.3. Retail Sales ex Fuel (GBP, GMT 08:30) – UK Retail Sales ex Fuel are expected to have increased to 4% y/y, compared to 3.8% y/y in March. Retail Sales ex Autos (USD, GMT 12:30) – Retail Sales are expected to have increased to 0.4% in March, up from the negative 0.2% surprise in February. Retail Sales (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Retail Sales are forecasted to have registered an increase in Canada as well, to 0.2% compared to 0.1% in January. Philly Fed Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – Philly Fed index is expected to have eased to 10.3 compared to 13.7 in March. Markit PMIs (USD, GMT 13:45) – Mixed signals are expected from the PMI release, as Manufacturing is expected to have increased to 52.8 from 52.4, while the Services PMI is expected to have declined to 55 from 55.3. Support and ResistanceAlways trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • No trades for the 16th, actions for the 17th.  I'm tying myself in knots watching the lowest time frames, it might be worthwhile watching higher time frames once the trade is open.
    • This is what I have been looking for but didn't get anywhere. Thanks again.   _____________________________________________________ Anthony Constantinou CEO CWM FX  
    • Date : 17th April 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th April 2019. FX News Today * 10-year Treasury yields are up 0.7 bp at 2.598% and JGB yields climbed 1.8 bp to -0.015%, as stock market sentiment got a boost from Chinese data releases that beat expectations. * Chinese GDP growth came in at 6.4% y/y, in the first quarter, unchanged from Q4, while production surged 8.5% y/y and retail sales 8.7% y/y. * Data were taken as a sign that the government’s stimulus measures are starting to take effect. While it may be too early to call the all clear on the world economy, together with signs that US-Sino trade talks are making progress,  * the data will go some way to bolster confidence, especially after positive surprises on credit and housing data last week. The data underpinned Asian stock markets, as Topix and Nikkei posted gains of 0.29% and 0.27% respectively. The Hang Seng is up 0.01% and CSI 400 and Shanghai Comp gained 0.11% and 0.34%. * Broader Asian indices are at the highest level since last July, even as the ASX underperformed and closed with a loss of -0.35%, dragged down by the materials sector. * US futures are also posting broad gains and the front end WTI future has moved up to now USD 64.50 per barrel. Charts of the Day Technician’s Corner * EURUSD moved past 1.13 early today and has been moving towards the 1.1315 Resistance level. Key Resistance remains at 1.1320 while the Support at 1.1279 is still strong after being hit twice yesterday. Indicators support an upwards move. * GBPUSD has been moving downwards but is so far unable to break through the psychological 1.30 level, fluctuating around the 1.3067-1.3026 levels. Indicators are giving mixed signals. * USDJPY found support again under the 112.00 mark, and continued to trade there yesterday, with the Japanese data releases causing only some volatility. Indicators are showing mixed signals. * XAUUSD is trading at lows, after breaking through the 1285 Support level. Gold appears unable to break through the 1275 level, with the MACD and Stochastics showing upwards signals. Main Macro Events Today * UK RPI and CPI inflation (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Both the RPI and the CPI are expected to have declined in March, reaching 2.1% and 1.6% respectively, down from 2.5% and 1.9% respectively. * EU CPI inflation (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Both the core and the overall CPI inflation rates are expected to have remained at the same levels, at 0.8% and 1.4% respectively. * Canada CPI Inflation (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The BoC Core price index is expected to have remained at 1.3% y/y, while the overall CPI index is forecast to rise to 1.9% y/y in March compared to 1.5% in February. Support and Resistance Levels Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • BNB trading: BNB Falls After Posting $20, The Bulls May Resume Rally   Binance Coin (BNB) Price Analysis – April 15   For the past two weeks, Binance Coin has been trading below $20.5, the yearly high, following a bearish sentiment. While BNBBTC market consolidates, BNBUSD is actually playing out on a decline as the sellers target next support level. However, a bullish breakout may continue an upward direction.   BNB-USD Market   Key Levels: Resistance levels: $20, $21 Support levels: $17, $16   BNBUSD performance has been quite impressive since the beginning of the year 2019; recording its all-time high at $20.5 in early April. After the steady drop to $17 area, the bulls increased momentum as price retested the ATH area; carving a descending broadening wedge formation.   BNBUSD-4H-Chart-April-15   In the last few hours of trading, the bears appeared to be resuming the rally. A selling pressure is gradually aiming $17 and $16 supports; respecting the trend line.   The important RSI is currently facing downward, signaling a bearish play. Reaching the oversold area may position the token at the mentioned price levels. A bullish play is likely to retest $20 resistance level. Surpassing the level may lead to a bullish continuation.   BNB-BTC Market   Following the market structure, BNBBTC is bearish on a medium-term trend as the price trades within a channel pattern. The fall began slowly after a double-bottom pattern at 0.0044 BTC high, which led the bears to the lower trend line at 0.0033 BTC before the bulls walk to 0.0039 BTC; testing the upper trend line.   BNBBTC-4H-Chart-April-15   Since yesterday, the price action has remained below 0.0039 BTC resistance level. A cross above this resistance could poise BNB for an upside trend. A long position could meet resistance at 0.0042 BTC resistance level. On the other hand, a downward move is likely at 0.0034 BTC and 0.0033 supports.   As revealed on the 4-hours RSI, the cryptocurrency is trading below the overbought level.     Please note: insidebitcoins.com is not a financial advisor. Do your own research before investing your funds in any financial asset or presented product or event. We are not responsible for your investing results.     How to buy Bitcoin with Paypal:  https://insidebitcoins.com/buy-cryptocurrency/buy-bitcoin-paypal   Best brokers for 2019:  https://insidebitcoins.com/forex-brokers    
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.