Reading Charts in Real Time

[MidKnight 12]

I like that one Kiwi. A weaker situation on EJ (so, I thought) and have jumped in!

 

EDIT: 0128 EST - I'm out BE. I am starting some exploration of more aggressive trade management and in this case it appears to have cost me. On the attached chart I am showing where I had decided to move to BE should it trade through. Well, the market did by 1 pip and then traded up to my BE stop (the break point) and then back down.

 

EDIT: 0133 - Funny how I thought EJ was the weakest but its turned out to be stronger than the alternatives I was considering at the time (GU, GJ).

 

EDIT: 0147 EST - Here is a 5m view of this trade along with an attached question (3rd image) for Thales.

Edited November 20, 2009 by MidKnight

[Kiwi 16]

Commenting on picture 3.

 

It is my experience over many types of contracts that breaks of formations or bars will be tested .... perhaps 66% of the time. This is probably the reason I've always hated be stops - when I was first told to use them it was before I understood the backing and filling that is required for bigger players to get filled. So I used to go to be and ... wow ... stopped out again.

 

Now I wouldn't put a stop in at an untested break until there was some form of lower (or this) timeframe formation to hide the stop behind.

 

But I'm not sure what Thales does. As always its horses for courses and perhaps his entries give better odds or perhaps he's a little slower to tighten than it seemed from some of the diagrams - but your picture clarifies the issue Mk. What do you recommend Thales?

[Kiwi 16]

I like the look of gu so much that I moved the second target to daily resistance below ... looking for a breakdown of the current zone. Stop to last swing. We shall see

 

 

[ziebarf 10]

I'll play. Looking for a fill on this long at 1.919 on EURUSD. BE is the pink line. I am traveling around SE Asia right no, so these posts will be few and far between.

 

EDIT: No fill, bailed on trade. Short looks alright from here, but we will see how the breakout holds up. It is beautiful in Cambodia, hopefully the internet stays up

Edited November 20, 2009 by ziebarf

[Kiwi 16]

gbp.usd closed

 

first half 25

second half 84

initial risk 25

[BlowFish 10]

Well, stopped at entry. It looks as though the theoretical break even stop loss (1.4894) would have been safe for now. This is starting to feel like a wouldashouldacoulda.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

At least you are not directly blaming the poor fills and shenanigans with your broker. I was off my game yesterday anyway but FX bookie issues actually compounds thing's beyond what they should. (The emotional reaction is dis-proportionate to the level of the scam). Slippage is a fact of life but wondering if it is real adds a level of stress (for want of a better word) that one just doesn't need.

[BlowFish 10]

This picture is an excellent example of clear thinking --- especially the last one.

 

Thales once again applies a 123break philosophy ... to a pin bar ... in a way that would differentiate one that was likely to take off fast from one more likely to backtrack or fail. This logic is something I used to use in sub-timeframe tests to decide where my entry should be and is excellent.

 

I must say, having read it so clearly, I am going to do a little work to show which pinbars meet the criteria and which dont. Food for thought Thales.

 

 

He seldom disappoints. This was exactly what I was trying to 'provoke' (in a positive way), I was hoping that there might be value to others too. There is much to learn from trades that don't trigger, ones that just don't take off or ones that are simply passed. While the method is childishly simple there are clearly subtleties to how TT applies it. Having expressed his views on 'filters' there is some filtering going on based on the price action and his experience watching it.

 

I am reviewing the thread (slowly) from the start and am looking at some ES trades. Whilst following the same principles some trades do seem to have a slightly different 'character', hard to describe really. To put it yet another way there is art here as well as science

 

Anyway thanks again TT.

[thalestrader 14]

Here is a 5m view of this trade along with an attached question (3rd image) for Thales.

 

No, MidK, my stop goes to BE with a print at a certain level. In this case, my level would have been a bit lower than yours, but my level was nonetheless hit, and had I been in this trade, I too would have been stopped at break even. It happens.

 

Right now, when this happens, it will be more frustrating to you. But over time, once you get hundreds and then thousands of trades under your belt, it won't bother you at all, at least not much.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Edited November 20, 2009 by thalestrader

[BlowFish 10]

This triggered as I was capturing the screen and boy did it trigger. Probabbly need to zoom out to the hourly for targets. Why can't they all be like that

[BlowFish 10]

As the break was with good momentum going to try and stick with it though have marked a zone of support for P. I really dont like MT4 cumbersome to annotate capture and post. Really cumbersome for order entry (imho). (should say its sim for me on FX and euro).

 

P.S. smashed through while I posted this

[thalestrader 14]

It is my experience over many types of contracts that breaks of formations or bars will be tested .... This is probably the reason I've always hated be stops - when I was first told to use them it was before I understood the backing and filling that is required for bigger players to get filled ... Now I wouldn't put a stop in at an untested break until there was some form of lower (or this) timeframe formation to hide the stop behind.

 

But I'm not sure what Thales does. As always its horses for courses and perhaps his entries give better odds or perhaps he's a little slower to tighten than it seemed from some of the diagrams - but your picture clarifies the issue Mk. What do you recommend Thales?

 

Well, I go to BE according to how I plan my trades. So I do from time to time get taken out at BE only to watch price continue in the anticipated direction. It is nowhere near 66% of the time, and I doubt it is more than 10%.

 

I have a friend who manages his trades very similar to the way manage mine, and he trades currencies only, When I am going to break even he is going to -5. I think he goes to -10 once the trade prints a +10, and then after a reaction that goes lower he'd to to -5 or just above the reaction high, whichever is more favorable. He goes to break even after a reaction followed by a lower low (and vice versa for a long).

 

The key is not that you have manage your trades exactly like me, or exactly like Kiwi, or exactly like Don, or anyone else. The key is to develop a routine that allows you to habituate yourself to keeping losses small, capturing profits, and not allowing profitable trades to turn into losses, especially not devastating losses.

 

Most important will be to keep taking your swings.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[BlowFish 10]

Going to try and hang on for the lower blue line (that has been on the chart for an age better check it still looks plausible). Yesterday I traded the dax for an hour live and was almost set to put FX on the back burner after doing a couple of bad things (adding to a looser on a 'pullback')

[BlowFish 10]

And done. Remarkable how volatility and directionality can come in so quickly. Not sure I should have tried to post, at least it stopped me closing prematurely.

 

Edit: had to zoom out a bit (4 hour) to best see that level)

Edited November 20, 2009 by BlowFish

[BlowFish 10]

Finally a 5 minute chart that show's how well formed the range was and how decisive the break and the subsequent drop. We are in the region of pretty significant potential support now if that goes look out below (may as well tag on a daily to show that). Note the charts are chosen to reveal what I want to see rather than being a slave to the bars.

[thalestrader 14]

While the method is childishly simple

 

 

That's what I have been saying since I got here.

 

Also, I'm not one for calling tops and bottoms and what not, but for the first time since the rally started in March, price action on the US equity markets is looking like it is considering taking a real breather. If so, we might soon get back to having some of those big swinging days again.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

I'll be out today, but here are my EURJPY targets if the decline continues/

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[johnjohn1hew 10]

Here is my observations on the USDCAD.

[johnjohn1hew 10]

Some progress..............

[daedalus 10]

Just wanted to give you a quick update boys. I apologize this isn't exactly topical (well i'll include my trade from this morning to make my educational quota) but i wanted to share my first weeks results.

 

I actually nailed the exit on this at 40 and actually got filled. I was pretty stoked to say the least.

 

I decided to trade only the first two hours based on BF's recommendations (and my own observations) and Fridays till the first winning trade i.e. its 9:32 right now!. Frankly, its got more than enough opportunity for myself, it doesn't get me burnt out, and frees up time for me to do other things. There is more to life than trading - I just haven't realized that until recently.

 

I didn't knock it out of the park this week. That's due to 1)letting the bigger risk trades (that alone were worth +600.00/per this week) go and 2) being a weakling earlier in the week. I'm ok with letting the big ones go as i'm keeping my risk in strict supervision. As the account grows, i'll begin to add them and the account growth will grow exponentially.

 

18 Trades, 8 wins, 8 pars, 2 losses, 5 ticks in negative slippage, an 88.89% win rate, and 12.26% account growth. :rofl:

 

I can't thank you guys enough for sparking this in me. I'm back to my roots now and it feels good! Hope you guys all had similar experiences!

[johnjohn1hew 10]

More progress....Now i have a 'potential' stop loss target. Could just be bouncing off the top of the range, but who knows.

[johnjohn1hew 10]

Well i have to go catch a bus, so i won't be able to watch anything for about an hour, so here are the two potential opportunities i was waiting for:

 

USDCAD breakout out, as explained in my prior posts; and

 

GBPUSD pattern to form as it is now at the high of the channel it was in - could go even higher to make a new channel top, but i don't know so i wait for a movement that screams breakout (to the downside as the main trend is down).

[Gabe2004 10]

Just a recap of what Thales said a few days ago.

 

Gabe

[johnjohn1hew 10]

Here's a larger view of the EURUSD. Support is consistently holding with the rallies off if it consistently become shorter. ie. Supply continuously coming in lower and lower and lower. Could this mean a eventual break to the downside?...we'll see.

[johnjohn1hew 10]

Here is the USDCHF moving in the same fashion. I would think the breakout would eventually be to the upside...but who knows. Demand increasing and supply consistently becoming weaker at higher prices.

[thalestrader 14]

Weekend Reading

 

Hi Folks,

 

Before I get to this edition of Weekend Reading, since I have your attention, I have something to say, and a couple of requests.

 

This thread has become a real joy for me. I know we have many, many more traders and trader-hopefuls regularly viewing this thread than are actively posting. Day after day, week after week, I get PM after PM, each from someone different and yet each saying the same thing (and I will quote from one of the ones I received today):

 

"I just want you to know that even though I'm not very active in the thread, your thread has made all the difference in the world to my trading. I've been trading for nearly a year ... but my returns were not even close the what your daughter was doing. If someone would have told me there were people that could make returns like that, I probably wouldn't have believed them ... I've been studying your approach ... and began sim trading on Monday, and I'm currently up 47% on the week (before commission/fees). Before, I would have been very happy with a 47% return on the month ... And what gets me, is that during the whole time that I was focused on systems, rules, indicators, etc., price was in front of my face the entire time! I'm now trading a chart with no indicators."

 

You could change the number of years, and while some are still on sim others are trading real money, and you can change the % return results, but otherwise, the PM's all say the same thing - this thread has helped some real folks move their trading in a real positive direction. I couldn't be more pleased that real folks are finding real help here in this thread.

 

I want to thank those who have taken it upon themselves to share their own experiences here in this thread (I'd name them but for fear of leaving someone out). I believe that their contributions help more than anything I can say, because it is their stories and their progress that inspire others, including me.

 

For those out there who have found this thread useful or interesting I have two requests for help:

 

First, if you are out there applying what we are discussing here, whether you are doing it exactly like I am or you have adapted it to suit you and your personality, please do not keep it to yourself. If you have benefited from what we have built here, then it is your responsibility to help to continue the work. If you are struggling to learn it, do not struggle alone. Speak up! Help is right here, and it won't cost you anything but to raise your hand and ask for it. Whether you need help or you can provide help to others, join in. Help us help others to learn.

 

Second, if you have benefited from the work we have done here, and if you are in a position to do so, please, please (I'm begging here), take some small portion of the profits you have earned and give to an organization that helps to feed the hungry. No matter what city or town, state or country in which you live, there is a family, a war veteran, a child, who right now is feeling the constant pain of hunger. Give to the food bank, the rescue mission, the soup kitchen, the homeless shelter. If you do not know anyone local to you and you don't have the time to call a few churches to find where you might help, PM me and I will give you the address and phone number to the Allentown Rescue Mission or the Allentown Ecumenical Food Bank. People are suffering all over. If you have risk capital to trade, then you have a few dollars (and even a very few dollars can make a big difference) to give to help feed someone who is, at this very moment, in pain. Imagine a child who cannot even understand why she suffers these constant pangs. You can help that child. You can ease her pain.

 

I pray that many reading this will give. I know that many won't.

 

Trading is difficult. It requires an emotional discipline and psychological strength few are able to develop. Trading is hard. For some reason, for many of us, giving is hard. But, just as trading offers unimaginable financial rewards for those who do the hard work of learning to interpret price and the even harder work of developing the emotional discipline to apply one's price reading skills to the markets, so too does giving to help others offer unimaginable rewards of the soul to those who open their hearts to the suffering and struggles of others and do whatever it is within their ability to do to ease that suffering and help in those struggles.

 

And with that, I will leave you this week's edition of Weekend Reading. Below you will find two links to a blog by a private trader named Rod Roth. I do not know him. I do not know how I came to find his blog. But find it I did, and I found these two of his essays particularly meaningful. I have each of these copied and pasted to a word doc and printed out and each holds a place in my trading notebooks. As these are his work, I will simply post the links. If you find them as interesting as I have, then I suggest that you too copy and paste them to a printable format and keep them in your trading notebook.

 

Thank you all for listening, and remember - humans are wonderful creatures capable of wonderful things, among which is the wonderful act of helping a human in need.

 

Do something wonderful this weekend.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

 

On Emotional Discipline

 

 

The 80/20 Trade

Edited November 20, 2009 by thalestrader