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jonbig04

Edge VS Mentality

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I don't have a plan I can write down. I don't think I have an edge. I use reasoning that I would if I was shopping in the high street/mall. I still shout at the screen, kick myself occasionally and congratulate myself when I do well. I still make plenty of money though.

 

I trade from years and years of 100+ hour weeks of experience and trial and error. I've tried it all. IMHO, you partly need an edge, you partly need yourself in check and have the right mentality, but most of all, I think you need experience. Once you truly understand what you are watching, realise this is just business (passion for the business helps!) and man up and trade like you would if you had a 'real' job (clock in and clock out), then you are onto a winner.

 

20% (loose) plan, 20% common sense (its a job, do it like any other) and 60% skill, experience and understanding is the right mix.

 

All IMO of course.

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"He's not God" is exactly what I'm saying, you are missing my point. I don't know anything about the guy, but I bet he didn't walk into Enron and they said "Oh here's 500 million dollars"... he started somewhere, just like us. But he can actually execute his strategy on ridiculous sums of money, he didn't cap out at 100k or breaking even. He pushed and pushed and eventually the amount of money he was risking didn't bother him. Ask yourself how you would feel after a down 10 million dollar day. I bet he had to go through it.

 

Contrary to what a lot of people have said I think its that indifference to money that I think makes the difference between a normal trader and someone like Arnold.

 

Trading is a business yes, but its unlike any business that I know of. Yes money is the bottom line, but its the fact that he probably didn't sit around and go "Oh no I have 10 million on this ohhh ahhhh" and pine over and over about it to the point where it affected his judgment probably made him be able to take huge bets and huge losses, and ultimately huge gains.

 

Money holds a distinct power over all of use and I think maybe releasing ourselves from its grip might be the key to large profits. We must respect it of course, but it is not our master. We control our profits and losses, they don't control us.

 

Maybe its this indifference regarding money that makes the difference between $100,000 per year and the 4 million dollars per day this guy can make.

 

Thoughts?

 

 

 

So I was doing more research on Arnold and I found this:

 

"In 2001, when he was 27, he single-handedly made the company $750 million, according to the Houston Chronicle.

In 2000, Arnold was often described by Enron public relations as the person who traded one-third of the natural gas market for the company, Platt's Power Markets Week reported earlier this year.

"He was not afraid of size," said Tom Lord, president of the commodity-markets consultant Volatility Managers and a former Morgan Stanley natural gas trader. "In natural gas markets in the late 1990's, there were probably four or five people willing to do large trades. He was one of them."

 

 

 

Interesting......

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Which brings you back to my earlier assertion:

 

Most people who say that there is nothing psychological about market performance simply haven't traded big enough.

 

I don't know where Arnold's limit will be ... he may be the equivalent of a base jumper and actually have a brain chemistry such that he only ever really feels alive when on the edge of (financial) death.

 

 

Wasp, what you say reflects a heavily discretionary outcome in your evolutionary process as a trader. It might be though that you could write it down if you worked hard enough at that process and then you might discover that it wasn't so much discretionary as unexpressed.

 

IMHO, anyone who is not yet succeeding in trading will have one or both of system issues or psychological issues. And the harder you push it or the less support and training you have the more likely it is that psychological issues will become important. But I do agree with dbPhoenix that most currently losing traders I have seen have not got:

 

A trading system (strategy/method/mech system/whatever) that they have tested sufficiently and can write down sufficiently clearly that there is no ambiguity in their choices about when to enter, what to do while the trade is live, and what to do after the trade is killed. Without that, its very difficult to identify any psychological work that needs to be done --- so in the chicken or egg argument you need the egg (written tested trading process) first.

 

Then you can start to push up through your goals until your genetically and environmentally determined limits are reached and you start to do the psychological work. Chicken time.

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I don't have a plan I can write down. I don't think I have an edge. I use reasoning that I would if I was shopping in the high street/mall. I still shout at the screen, kick myself occasionally and congratulate myself when I do well. I still make plenty of money though.

 

All IMO of course.

 

If I'm correct your trading consists of periods where you follow the markets intensively (you are never longer than 4 hours away from the charts), followed by periods where you don't trade?

 

I'm wondering how it feels to get back "in the zone" after such a long time away from the charts. Even after just a couple of weeks without screen-time, I feel the need to get accustomed to the markets by following price. Even if it's just for two days. I obviously haven't forgotten what it is to trade, and what kind of setups I'm looking for, but if you take a break that lasts several months then the market (volatility is just one factor) might have changed a bit.

 

Don't you have any trouble when you come back after a prolonged period of no-trading? If you have no plan to write down (well you must have an edge otherwise you wouldn't be making money consistently), does that mean you think you wouldn't be able to teach someone else your methods?

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Which brings you back to my earlier assertion:

 

Most people who say that there is nothing psychological about market performance simply haven't traded big enough.

 

I don't know where Arnold's limit will be ... he may be the equivalent of a base jumper and actually have a brain chemistry such that he only ever really feels alive when on the edge of (financial) death.

 

 

Wasp, what you say reflects a heavily discretionary outcome in your evolutionary process as a trader. It might be though that you could write it down if you worked hard enough at that process and then you might discover that it wasn't so much discretionary as unexpressed.

 

IMHO, anyone who is not yet succeeding in trading will have one or both of system issues or psychological issues. And the harder you push it or the less support and training you have the more likely it is that psychological issues will become important. But I do agree with dbPhoenix that most currently losing traders I have seen have not got:

 

A trading system (strategy/method/mech system/whatever) that they have tested sufficiently and can write down sufficiently clearly that there is no ambiguity in their choices about when to enter, what to do while the trade is live, and what to do after the trade is killed. Without that, its very difficult to identify any psychological work that needs to be done --- so in the chicken or egg argument you need the egg (written tested trading process) first.

 

Then you can start to push up through your goals until your genetically and environmentally determined limits are reached and you start to do the psychological work. Chicken time.

 

 

 

Great post. I think we can almost make some very clear assessments now:

 

The majority of traders who quickly blow their accounts most likely didn't put in the work and create a solid well defined and tested plan of which to follow. Those who have said plan and are unable to follow it consistently all the time (I think almost everybody will still have trouble implementing that plan every single time thus this will be a necessary step for everybody) will need to address certain psychological issues that are undermining his trust in himself to actually execute the plan. If you are consistently making money but having trouble raising your investment and thus your profit consistently there are yet still psychological issues to be addressed. After all if you have a well defined method (edge) and you trust yourself to stick to it, nothing should be stopping you from making more and more money with absolutely no limit. The only limit is the one you place on the trust in yourself.

 

 

Agree?

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He couldn't stop Enron collapsing, so i guess JD Arnold isn't God, just another trader, but with more liquidity at his fingertips. Besides, he has a team,...there is no 'I' in team.

 

Tell you what, let's use Nick Leeson, in a conversation about stops.

 

Well now, you might be able to fulfil that desire if you wish, sign up for the forthcoming symposium of Tradeguider (VSA) in Oct, 2008, to be held in ASPEN, Colorado, (only $10K) you would be joining up with professional traders, real smart ones plus many Pshychology Gurus and their Top Guest Speaker to talk about SMART MONEY, Nick Leeson himself;)

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If what you're saying is true than no one would ever make money consistently from trading or investing. That's obviously not the case, and is not what I'm arguing for or against here.

 

 

Slept on it! He's got an edge (Arnold), but, you don't need his 'edge' to make money.

 

Good trading.

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Which brings you back to my earlier assertion:

 

Most people who say that there is nothing psychological about market performance simply haven't traded big enough.

 

I don't know where Arnold's limit will be ... he may be the equivalent of a base jumper and actually have a brain chemistry such that he only ever really feels alive when on the edge of (financial) death.

 

Maybe that's the case but some of use relish big size and only pay attention when the average profit kicks in around 20/30k a trade. Another book cliche that states we should panic, not enjoy. If the percentages are correct and you treat this like what it is, business, then size should be a pleasure, not a fear.

 

Wasp, what you say reflects a heavily discretionary outcome in your evolutionary process as a trader. It might be though that you could write it down if you worked hard enough at that process and then you might discover that it wasn't so much discretionary as unexpressed.

 

IMHO, anyone who is not yet succeeding in trading will have one or both of system issues or psychological issues. And the harder you push it or the less support and training you have the more likely it is that psychological issues will become important. But I do agree with dbPhoenix that most currently losing traders I have seen have not got:

 

A trading system (strategy/method/mech system/whatever) that they have tested sufficiently and can write down sufficiently clearly that there is no ambiguity in their choices about when to enter, what to do while the trade is live, and what to do after the trade is killed. Without that, its very difficult to identify any psychological work that needs to be done --- so in the chicken or egg argument you need the egg (written tested trading process) first.

 

Then you can start to push up through your goals until your genetically and environmentally determined limits are reached and you start to do the psychological work. Chicken time.

 

Ok, yes, I do have a loose outline of a plan but its the screen time and years of experience that tell's me when I am wrong, when I should get out and get in and yes, I could write down 'buy S and sell R' but there are many little factors here and there that are not set in stone is all.

 

For anyone coming to, or, having troubles with their trading, a plan you can write down is vital, but you also need the discipline to hold through all conditions. As for the title of the thread, for those outlined above, I would say it is 50/50. You cannot be successful if you only have half the equation.

 

The longer I trade, the stronger I stand by my opinion that experience is more important than anything. KNOW the market like you know yourself, only then can you really get out the most from it.

 

If I'm correct your trading consists of periods where you follow the markets intensively (you are never longer than 4 hours away from the charts), followed by periods where you don't trade?

 

I'm wondering how it feels to get back "in the zone" after such a long time away from the charts. Even after just a couple of weeks without screen-time, I feel the need to get accustomed to the markets by following price. Even if it's just for two days. I obviously haven't forgotten what it is to trade, and what kind of setups I'm looking for, but if you take a break that lasts several months then the market (volatility is just one factor) might have changed a bit.

 

As for coming back after time away, I always think (this is the only analogy I can use as its the one linked to me), of my bartending days. Once upon a time, a screwdriver was in the toolbox, now, I could make 150 cocktails and shooters without thinking about it. I have not stood the wrong side of a bar for 5+ years now but at any party with more than 3 bottles of liquor I go to, I can make anything for anyone. It's like riding a bike IMO, it is so ingrained into my brain now that I do without really thinking. It may take you a day or two to get back in sync but IMO, once you know what you are watching, and understand what you are watching, its impossible to 'forget'.

 

Taking your 'volatility' example, so what? So the market moves more, that's a good thing, adapt to it and enjoy I say!

 

Don't you have any trouble when you come back after a prolonged period of no-trading? If you have no plan to write down (well you must have an edge otherwise you wouldn't be making money consistently), does that mean you think you wouldn't be able to teach someone else your methods?

 

I have tried for a couple of people but no, they couln't get it down. Why? Partly because I couldn't write it down and partly because its not that simple, nothing ever is. My ability to trade successfully is not (just) because I have a 'plan' and discipline, it is due to years of 6/7 days a week, 20 hours a day with a laptop glued to my hands.

 

Like a F1 driver, yes they have a plan of how to get round a track fastest but they have been doing it for years, they understand the car, the engine, the track and the other racers. If Lewis told you how to get round Silverstone the fastest (brake here, speed up there), would you beat Schumacher?

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Well now, you might be able to fulfil that desire if you wish, sign up for the forthcoming symposium of Tradeguider (VSA) in Oct, 2008, to be held in ASPEN, Colorado, (only $10K) you would be joining up with professional traders, real smart ones plus many Pshychology Gurus and their Top Guest Speaker to talk about SMART MONEY, Nick Leeson himself;)

 

You need to put "professional trader" in quotes if applied to Gavin the Huckster :)

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Which brings you back to my earlier assertion:

 

Most people who say that there is nothing psychological about market performance simply haven't traded big enough.

 

This is a capitalisation issue. Of course a lot of starting traders are under capitalise and/or trade too big. Of course this is likely to produce feelings of anxiety. Knowing the risk of ruin can help. .....Interesting thought, if you experience anxiety/fear when paper trading the issue is unlikely to be fear of financial loss??

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Its not really a capitalization issue (at least not necessarily). There will be a number at which the heart starts to beat. Although this may not be true for psychopaths, base jumpers, and those for whom the money truly is "unimportant."

 

Anxiety when paper trading may be about being wrong or fear that failure in this zone would indicate future failure. In all these things I think that a lot depends on what one invests in each thing; what meanings one assumes; and possibly how it maps to events in ones dim dark past (db's "your father was right -- you are useless.")

 

Although I'm way off my earlier point that one needs both the egg, and then the chicken, to cross the trading road.

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So its safe to say that the difference between people who make money consistently and the people who make BOAT loads of money consistently is psychological. This is what I have really been trying to determine.

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This is a capitalisation issue. Of course a lot of starting traders are under capitalise and/or trade too big. Of course this is likely to produce feelings of anxiety. Knowing the risk of ruin can help. .....Interesting thought, if you experience anxiety/fear when paper trading the issue is unlikely to be fear of financial loss??

 

Blowfish,

 

I disagree with the last sentence. If a noob is "commited" to making trading he/shes occupation. He/she needs to have a healthy fear/anxiety in the first stages of paper trading. This gives him/her sometime to control those fears/anxieties without using real money. I did and it helped me tremendously. If i know how to control it in paper trading i can control it when i go live. Obviously everybody is different. I needed to make everything as real as possible so i fooled myself into thinking my paper account was my real account. Using only 1 contract at a time i could feel the rush of making a trade. This is obviously done after i have my strategy in place :cool: For all beggining traders out there treat paper accounts as if they are real accounts. Thats the only way youre gonna learn without losing "real" money. Use it as a educational tool to prepare yourself for the real world.

 

strtedat22

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So its safe to say that the difference between people who make money consistently and the people who make BOAT loads of money consistently is psychological. This is what I have really been trying to determine.

 

One could also say that the difference between people who lose money consistently and the people who lose BOAT loads of money consistently is also psychological.

 

You seem to be looking for some sort of permission. Is the above question really all that this thread has been about?

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One could also say that the difference between people who lose money consistently and the people who lose BOAT loads of money consistently is also psychological.

 

You seem to be looking for some sort of permission. Is the above question really all that this thread has been about?

 

 

To be honest, I kind of was looking for a sort of permission/consensus. I'm not the kind of person who coasts into something. If I do it, I'm going to do it with all my heart, soul, and mental energy. What I'm attempting to do right now is simply identify WHAT it is that I need to do to accomplish my goal. As you may have guessed my goal isn't to become profitable, or break even (even though those are stepping stones on the way too my goal) my goal is to be the best. Of course I want to make it past the level of traders who lose all their money, but I also want to push past the psychological barriers that seem to keep good traders (profitable) from becoming great traders (ridiculously profitable). That is a step I haven't seen very many traders take, or make an attempt to take. You may say I need to learn to crawl before I can walk and that's true, but if I can identify the problems that will eventually come into play, maybe I can get a head start on correcting them and be damn sure they don't start to form in my own trading or mind. I'm a very analytical person so it help me to break down into separate categories the broad areas which I will need to focus on. Does that make it any easier? Maybe not, but at least I know my focus will be lasered in on the right place. I think that's important, at least for me.

 

 

All day I'm on TL listening to you all and learning what I can, which is great for me and I appreciate it because you all, as traders, have a perspective that I don't. You can teach me things which I can just read and follow as opposed to learning it by expensive trial and error like I'm sure a lot of you did. Believe me, I am taking full advantage of your generosity and appreciate it. But I too have a different perspective because I am not yet a trader. I feel like I can kind of get a birds eye view of what people are getting hung up on so much because as of now I haven't really done anything right, and I haven't really done anything wrong. Maybe, just maybe, it will help me get past or at least identify the problems when they come knocking at my door. Hope that makes sense.

 

 

 

ps I'm reading your book and have a couple hundred thousand questions, I'm hoping I'm not the first idiot to ask them in which case I will be getting to know the search button very well.

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To me this question is simple in that you can give someone a profitable system but they might not have the proper mental framework in order to trade it profitably themselves. On the flip side you can give Sigmond Freud an unprofitable system and it matters not at all what mental framework is being used, if the system is not profitable its not going to make money.

The benefits of a simple system are that its easier to test and its easier to trade in the exact same fashion over and over. The downside is that its not going to be as robust as something more complex. I wouldn't doubt alot of intermediate traders atribute "pyschological problems" to their simple system when it starts to break down during a market regime change when in reality the real problem is that the system is starting to lose its edge.

I personally believe the whole concept of the "holy grail" is a very poor one when it comes to trading. My personal goal is to find as many non random exploitable market setups/conditions as possible in order to add robustness to the overall portfolio of strategies. To me the idea of the "quest for the holy grail" makes one intentionally diminish robustness so that you can't be accused of searching for the "holy grail", it makes no sense.

The biggest problem that I've seen with new traders is simple lack of patience at all levels. No patience to do hard work, no patience to stick around to see a few market cycles, no patience to sift through all the garbage the trading community produces, no patience to learn to program..everyone wants to jump right to proving they are the next Tudor Jones and never take the time to even give themselves a chance.

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But I too have a different perspective because I am not yet a trader. I feel like I can kind of get a birds eye view of what people are getting hung up on so much because as of now I haven't really done anything right, and I haven't really done anything wrong.

We all felt that way. Pretty much everyone who enters trading feels that they will be different, for whatever reason.

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We all felt that way. Pretty much everyone who enters trading feels that they will be different, for whatever reason.

 

 

I think trading itself attracts those who were anomalous in their previous fields. So what you say makes sense. Newbies learning about trading probably automatically assume they will have the same success in trading they did in whatever their previous gig was. The vast majority don't have that same success, but the desire to become an anomaly itself is not what stops them from becoming one. The difference, I think, is that most think that they will rise above the crowd through little or no effort of their own. While some realize that they can achieve the same success in trading, but the odds are even more stacked against them and if they want to get there they will have to MAKE it happen through sheer force of will, hard work, self probing/evaluation and probably a complete over-haul of how they perceive trading.

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Quote from jonbig04 from the similar post on ET (link):

 

One more thing:

 

Ask yourself this. On Monday take your exact strategy and setup, but instead of trading your usual amount imagine you have $10 million on it. Do you act differently? Does it affect you? Think about it honestly. Does it affect you? If so I submit to you that there is mental work yet to be done which is what this thread is about.

 

I know it would affect me haha.

This brings up a good point. Maybe it appears that 80% is psychological because +80% of traders are over leveraged. ;)

If that "$10 million" (I assume it's MY 10 million) was the correct % of my total wealth, I would not trade it differently. If the money was not mine it would depend on how leveraged the lender is and their expectations. The problems people have with scaling (psychological wise) usually comes from not keeping everything even across the board. As for my thoughts on the whole topic...I do believe that there is a decent room for psychology, but I do not feel that it's as high as 80% when you are talking about finding an actual edge (if you remove the highly leveraged gamblers :)).

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Blowfish,

 

I disagree with the last sentence. If a noob is "commited" to making trading he/shes occupation. He/she needs to have a healthy fear/anxiety in the first stages of paper trading. This gives him/her sometime to control those fears/anxieties without using real money. I did and it helped me tremendously. If i know how to control it in paper trading i can control it when i go live. Obviously everybody is different. I needed to make everything as real as possible so i fooled myself into thinking my paper account was my real account. Using only 1 contract at a time i could feel the rush of making a trade. This is obviously done after i have my strategy in place :cool: For all beggining traders out there treat paper accounts as if they are real accounts. Thats the only way youre gonna learn without losing "real" money. Use it as a educational tool to prepare yourself for the real world.

 

strtedat22

 

I think you might have misconstrued what I said :) Firstly it was a question rather than a statement. It was not to discuss the merits of paper trading but to suggest that if you experience emotional responses whilst simming they are unlikely to be simple fear of financial loss. Neither did I comment whether fear was 'healthy' or not. Not being argumentative here just clarifying :)

 

I too tend to paper trade pretty much as I trade for real (for better or worse). However much you have convinced yourself to 'do it as if its real' if you are experiencing anxiety in sim mode this is probably indicative of other issues. Fear has many many manifestations :) Only you will be able to tell whether its 'healthy' or not. At some stage it is likely that most will experience the actual pain of financial loss. Tha isn't going to happen simming. The only way to really experience the 'feeling' of a string of loosing trades (and the attendant drawdown) is actually experience it. But that wasn't my point either really. Sim might (or might not) help sorting out a whole bunch of things without the pain (and fear it tends to foster) of losing money.

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I think you might have misconstrued what I said :) Firstly it was a question rather than a statement. It was not to discuss the merits of paper trading but to suggest that if you experience emotional responses whilst simming they are unlikely to be simple fear of financial loss. Neither did I comment whether fear was 'healthy' or not. Not being argumentative here just clarifying :)

 

I too tend to paper trade pretty much as I trade for real (for better or worse). However much you have convinced yourself to 'do it as if its real' if you are experiencing anxiety in sim mode this is probably indicative of other issues. Fear has many many manifestations :) Only you will be able to tell whether its 'healthy' or not. At some stage it is likely that most will experience the actual pain of financial loss. Tha isn't going to happen simming. The only way to really experience the 'feeling' of a string of loosing trades (and the attendant drawdown) is actually experience it. But that wasn't my point either really. Sim might (or might not) help sorting out a whole bunch of things without the pain (and fear it tends to foster) of losing money.

 

BF,

 

Thanks for clarifying that for me. From my own experience and im sure for alot of other beginners getting started in the realm of trading felt a feeling of anxiety from the get go. I didnt want to lose money while learning the game. I paper traded futures until i could control my anxiety/emotions/greed/fears. Dont get me wrong. I still do lose money but i dont lose my cool :cool:

 

strtedat22

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If you don't have a plan you don't have a plan. If you do have a plan but don't use it, you might as well not have one.

 

Well said tune. Planning is one thing; implementing the plan is another; SUCCEEDING with it is something else.

 

ENJOY!

 

ztrader

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You are right. Making a $100k trading is a great accomplishment, and to the people that do it you get kudos from me. However most people don't get there. You seem to be implying that the 100k trader is simply "paying his dues" and you may be right, but the statistics say over 95% of the time, you're wrong. That trader will usually blow his account, and if he doesn't he will stay in his comfort zone of 100k, trading only the amount of contracts that can handle without losing sleep.

 

Do you know why their is a 95% fail rate in this business? I do. And the reasons are simple:

 

1. New traders are lured by this idea that "this is an easy way to riches." The Market Makers have brilliant Marketing departments and they do a stellar job- believe me I have a B.S. in Marketing and over a decade in the field- I know good marketing. They shoot fish in a barrel.

 

They tout short term trades. They WANT you to scalp for two reasons. One is the more trades you take, the more commissions they make. Secondly, Marketers are trained with psychology- they know what makes you tick- they know people and how they work. They know that even if the long term trend is bull, human nature to a "get rich quick" minded person will take tiny profits out of fear.

 

2. After they have baited you into doing something as silly as opening an account with $250 being as green as an Irish countryside- letting you overleverage the crap out of yourself- they part you of your $250 and hundreds of others. Knowing psychology again, they know that most people with be revengelful- they will fund the account with another $250 and take another crack at it- this time, they have you even MORE by the short and twisty's because you are pissed and want to get your first $250 back. They take you to the cleaners again! The cycle repeats over and over with millions of "get rich quick" greenhorns.

 

3. If after you have blown two accounts, and still want some more- you then set out on your search for the "Holy Grail." You start picking from the list of the 1000 indicators that your broker who just cleaned your clock TWICE gives you. "Must be a gift from the trading gods" you say- "all the answers are right here" you think- so you apply them, try them and eventually get parted from even more money.

 

4. If you are now beaten down for the third time- you can either

A. Keep fighting the good fight and demo trade until you finally get it right

or

B. Give up on the markets all together.

 

5. If you choose A, you will study and learn what the markets are really all about, you will search not for "The Grail" but for the reasons the markets do what they do. You will search to find out how to read a chart instead of trying to take trades when one line crosses another or some Indicator tells you it is time to pull the trigger. You will take the hard road and work long hours to get to an edge. You will make money with your edge, and sometimes you will want to tweak the edge or realize that you can have multiple "edges" to draw money from the market. You will look at the market from a completely different perspective than you did when you started. You know that the market is not "out to get you." The market is there to do what it does- and either you are in harmony with the movements- or you are a dead man walking.

 

The lesson:

This is a hard road, this takes time, this takes patience to learn, this takes dicipline, it takes blood, sweat and tears. During your learning phase you will either crumble and give up, or you will have the heart to plow on ahead. 95%of people fail in this business because they don't have the balls to do what it takes to succeed. They don't have the gumption to fight through the learning stage to make it. PERIOD!

Aaron

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