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Paul71
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Slept on it! He's got an edge (Arnold), but, you don't need his 'edge' to make money. Good trading.
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:doh: Arnold is an energy trader with dosh and an expert team around him. If that's an edge, then you've got no chance, sweet pea. Good luck.
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Arnold had no edge, bud. He took his own wealth and knowledge, formed a team comprising of ex-Enron colleagues and probably thier asset worth, and exploited a once in a life time opportunity. You'll never get that kind of edge, Jon. That's fortunate opportunity, not edge, there's a difference. Even Arnold would probably agree that what he did was opportunistic, and not an ongoing edge.
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He couldn't stop Enron collapsing, so i guess JD Arnold isn't God, just another trader, but with more liquidity at his fingertips. Besides, he has a team,...there is no 'I' in team. Tell you what, let's use Nick Leeson, in a conversation about stops.
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Good post. The critical area is 'a' price(s), SR, which are the decision(s) point(s), then there are the runs inbetween (i hope i'm not talking dihorea). It's the effeciency around SR with proficient order management that creates differences in profits between different traders....and that's just the consistently profitable traders. There are no edges, just better observations, it's all in the mind. (Better traders are born, Firewalker:o) IMHO!
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Mainstream TA is an endless supply of patterns, techniques, methods etc. Depending on which books a person reads, what they see in a chart and the individuals personality is all relavant. Personally i've never really understood the aggresive/passive arguement, Jeckyll and Hyde trading in an individual can't be good for the curve. Good trading.
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The Unknown Future: To Predict or Not to Predict
Paul71 replied to firewalker's topic in Market News & Analysis
People are up in arms around the world over high fuel prices...they have to pay for thier investments...they think their pension is just money that pops up out of thin air...the dumb money pays for itself the pros just move the money according to what the dumb money wants or maybe doesn't want in most cases. Professional intent must surely be the only thing to pick up on in order to predict. I may be wrong, just some thoughts. -
The Unknown Future: To Predict or Not to Predict
Paul71 replied to firewalker's topic in Market News & Analysis
It's interesting about how it's all really fuelled. Think about one single person and how much they actually pay into the system, the markets, by way of pensions, mortgages, savings, borrowing etc. Then thier use of commodities, where they work, what thier job is for any particular company, thier earnings for what they produce and so on. I suspect the real dumb money doesn't even know that they are dumb money and have no direct interest in the markets such as being an active speculator. Again, just some thought. -
The Unknown Future: To Predict or Not to Predict
Paul71 replied to firewalker's topic in Market News & Analysis
Morning FW. Thought provoking thread you have here. We don't know how the participants of a market will behave in the future, but we know how they are behaving now and we know how they have behaved in the past...so we have to able to pick up on behaviour and it's effect on price and then how the price is effecting behaviour and so on (circular). Cycles start and end for reasons, so everything is known in advance once a trader has the ability to pin point the start of a cycle, he can then stay on top of the cycle through his/her knowledge of participant activity within the cycle. Just some input. -
Interesting! Maybe the fear of a drop is greater than the fear of a rise? But, it's institutional money that makes the market, so why do they stop competing so suddenly, and probably more importantly, what's the strategy/call for the resumption of the competing? What are the institutions up to?:question:
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This may be the logic, DB. Gann (i know it's not Wyckoff), suggested that the majority of overnight orders were placed by non-professionals, the 'pros' would then take advantage of these orders after the opening depending on their view of the market. Maybe part of the reason why Wyckoff dismissed openings in the main is because they were not normally professionally motivated, and also because of the reasons you yourself have given, DB. ?
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Hi DB. Good post, and may i say, i'm enjoying reading your 'work' again. I suppose true risk lies within a traders own understanding of supply and demand, greed and fear, market psychology, strength and weakness, price action, support and resistance. People/traders often argue about 'the numbers', different ratios and so on, but this is only in context/reference to thier own ability, and to a certain degree, has no real relavence or bearing to anybody else, or dare i say, even the market. Good to read you again, DB.