Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

tradingwizzard

Dow Jones = 100,000 Target

Recommended Posts

I am generally bearish by nature.....I just choose to wait for the opportune time to sell rather than fighting the trend.

 

disclaimer: no one forced me to write this, I dont care about 10k, 100k or 1mil in the dow, I am just a cynical middle aged man but have always been so even when younger, I agree this is not a contest, my computers will soon be back on line after renovations gone astray, I have zero respect for builders even though my brothers are in the building game, even less respect for accountants, after time off from trading I am less interested in day trading and more interested in bigger picture themes. No animals were hurt in this renovation unless you include children (hey - you gotta applaud their small hands are good for somethings) and my bank account.

 

I think that we're about to whitness a major squeeze to the upside....people don't seem to realize what this pattern (double three running) means

 

TW

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

tend to agree with you.

Usually before a decline you either often have a squeeze up of some sort....or a false break to the downside. Both sucker people in.....and provide better opportunities to short rather than just trying to pick a top in a bull market.

However I admit I have no skin in the game in the US equity market at present

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's going to be fun for the next few years. When tapering starts, all markets will resume more traditional levels of volatility. The vix is at 12.5 with the 52 week high at 22. Amazing! Keep in mind that when tapering happens, it will likely mean the economy is doing well enough that it doesn't need such a high level of stimulus. By that point ( some time next year) retail money will begin to pour in as the market continues to make new highs. The last sucker will buy somewhere around the fall of 2015 or early 2016, then a drop then the squeeze and a 20% correction. 20% from what? Maybe 2400- 2500? Who knows. That will bring us back down to these levels. Patuca and company would be best advised to average up.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It's going to be fun for the next few years. When tapering starts, all markets will resume more traditional levels of volatility. The vix is at 12.5 with the 52 week high at 22. Amazing! Keep in mind that when tapering happens, it will likely mean the economy is doing well enough that it doesn't need such a high level of stimulus. By that point ( some time next year) retail money will begin to pour in as the market continues to make new highs. The last sucker will buy somewhere around the fall of 2015 or early 2016, then a drop then the squeeze and a 20% correction. 20% from what? Maybe 2400- 2500? Who knows. That will bring us back down to these levels. Patuca and company would be best advised to average up.

 

I don't know about tapering.....Yellen is coming and she was pretty clear that the economy needs MORE stimulus, not tapering.....any time soon would not be the case......plus....maybe they will taper, but what if after tapering let's say 20 bln the economic releases are coming on the negative side again?.....well, stimulus back on the table.....

 

just saying....

 

TW

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I don't know about tapering.....Yellen is coming and she was pretty clear that the economy needs MORE stimulus, not tapering.....any time soon would not be the case......plus....maybe they will taper, but what if after tapering let's say 20 bln the economic releases are coming on the negative side again?.....well, stimulus back on the table.....

 

just saying....

 

TW

 

quantitative easing has added very close to nothing to the economy. I expect that tapering will take away close to nothing too.one thing's for certain, the Fed now will use quantitative easing as a new tool for the foreseeable future.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

any bear still in the house?..........crap, they will not taper........markets will not be positioned in such a manner with a tapering to come anytime soon (at leas 1 year horizon in my opinion).......Philly Fed employment component was a disaster the other day.........just saying

 

TW

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The following maybe of some help .

Looking for possible TOPS in SPX 500

The height of the 3 rectangles named a b c , ( left side ) end all to the 1538.5 obvious maximum.

The beginning is chosen as drawn from significant points.

We compared the current bullish wave that started from point 3 gray circle. ( the same rectangles on the right side )

We have chosen a fibo expansion ‘’1’’ ‘’ 2 ‘’ ‘’ 3 ‘’.

Conclusions as far

Current price 27 dec , being 1840

overpassed 1715 -gray rectangle

Still below 1977 and 2085

The fibo expansion ‘’1’’ ‘’ 2 ‘’ ‘’ 3 ‘’ projects 2085 that almost coincides with blue rectangle ( the highest of 3 )

This makes this point of great interest.

Prices at 1715 1840 1977 2085 are of great importance .

 

e0ij.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The following maybe of some help .

Looking for possible TOPS in SPX 500

The height of the 3 rectangles named a b c , ( left side ) end all to the 1538.5 obvious maximum.

The beginning is chosen as drawn from significant points.

We compared the current bullish wave that started from point 3 gray circle. ( the same rectangles on the right side )

We have chosen a fibo expansion ‘’1’’ ‘’ 2 ‘’ ‘’ 3 ‘’.

Conclusions as far

Current price 27 dec , being 1840

overpassed 1715 -gray rectangle

Still below 1977 and 2085

The fibo expansion ‘’1’’ ‘’ 2 ‘’ ‘’ 3 ‘’ projects 2085 that almost coincides with blue rectangle ( the highest of 3 )

This makes this point of great interest.

Prices at 1715 1840 1977 2085 are of great importance .

 

e0ij.png

 

What you are looking for there seems to be an irregular flat for the bigger correction, but .......as there is always a but......what comes next is nothing close to Elliott or something else.....

 

any explanations?

 

thanks

 

TW

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
What you are looking for there seems to be an irregular flat for the bigger correction, but .......as there is always a but......what comes next is nothing close to Elliott or something else.....

 

any explanations?

 

thanks

 

TW

Prices in stock exchanges ( usa , german etc. ) may go more easily higher as no obvious resistance exists while a top may appear sooner or later .

Only projected resistances exist.

May be the simpler of them is the one described in terms of equality. I have chosen equality as I ’’ forced ‘’ myself to analyse in a simple way comparing the current wave with each of the 3 significant moves in the past attempting to the '''sooner ''

The assumption is that the current wave may either end or at least find resistance at the measured prices.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Prices in stock exchanges ( usa , german etc. ) may go more easily higher as no obvious resistance exists while a top may appear sooner or later .

Only projected resistances exist.

May be the simpler of them is the one described in terms of equality. I have chosen equality as I ’’ forced ‘’ myself to analyse in a simple way comparing the current wave with each of the 3 significant moves in the past attempting to the '''sooner ''

The assumption is that the current wave may either end or at least find resistance at the measured prices.

 

hi livernik,

 

I hear what you are saying. Just arguing with the fact that "sooner or later" is a relative term in trading.

 

How would you define sooner in terms of price and/or time?

 

TW

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
hi livernik,

 

I hear what you are saying. Just arguing with the fact that "sooner or later" is a relative term in trading.

 

How would you define sooner in terms of price and/or time?

 

TW

''Sooner or later '' has the meaning and reminds that from a zero basis concept anything may happen. It is placed in an introductory phrase and does not need to be ''a relative term in trading ''

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
When the guy how owns the deli across the street tells me that he bought stocks I will know the top is in place. He is still bearish...:)

 

nice comparison......

 

the thing is that Fed still injects 75 billion on a monthly basis....this kind of money is not just vanishing into the air

 

TW

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Seriously?

 

Amazing how such a minor down move makes people think the bull is dead. We have more volatility, but the move up is still solidly intact. Great trading, long and short, if you are a shorter term trader. This market has multiple years left on the upside. We just have to deal with more volatility.

 

Start getting concerned somewhere near September or October 2016; otherwise, for now, enjoy the ride. Get long anywhere. Dip or not.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Dow has completed an important pattern to the upside and is now feeling the ramifications. The pattern began in October 2013 with a momentum move that lasted the minimum 9 consecutive days. It then went into the trending phase (1-13 red numbers) and after a small downside reflex proceeded into another momentum move (1-9 green numbers above the candles) that lasted into to the end of the calendar year. At this point, following the 9-13-9 move the Dow should be exhausted and need to correct the advance.

 

It has just completed what would need to be the minimum correction to the downside as of 2/3/14 by posting 9 consecutive down bars (down bars are determined by closing below the close 4 days ago NOT the previous day). At this point the initial downside momentum should level off as buyers begin to nibble.

 

The low at point A on the chart will be very important and if the move proceeds into a full downside trending phase 1-13 red candles then the lower channel boundary at point B will come into play.

 

There will be upside resistance 15745 from the upper channel boundary and more resistance at the high of the right most shaded box on the chart at 16455.

2014-02-04_8-29-33-X.thumb.png.ffb50dc69509fc1f283fcd9f4fdde747.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The Dow has completed an important pattern to the upside and is now feeling the ramifications. The pattern began in October 2013 with a momentum move that lasted the minimum 9 consecutive days. It then went into the trending phase (1-13 red numbers) and after a small downside reflex proceeded into another momentum move (1-9 green numbers above the candles) that lasted into to the end of the calendar year. At this point, following the 9-13-9 move the Dow should be exhausted and need to correct the advance.

 

It has just completed what would need to be the minimum correction to the downside as of 2/3/14 by posting 9 consecutive down bars (down bars are determined by closing below the close 4 days ago NOT the previous day). At this point the initial downside momentum should level off as buyers begin to nibble.

 

The low at point A on the chart will be very important and if the move proceeds into a full downside trending phase 1-13 red candles then the lower channel boundary at point B will come into play.

 

There will be upside resistance 15745 from the upper channel boundary and more resistance at the high of the right most shaded box on the chart at 16455.

 

does this have anything to do with DeMark sequential indicator?

 

thanks

 

TW

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
does this have anything to do with DeMark sequential indicator?

 

thanks

 

TW

 

Yes, the Seeker is a very close cousin--much of the same logic with a few enhancements. The 9-13-9 pattern doesn't come along all that often so I wanted to share it with traders tracking the Dow. The same pattern is also present in the NASDAQ and SPX.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date : 26th October 2021. Market Update – October 26 – Bonds and stocks rallied to start the week. USD (USDIndex 93.89) – first rate hike was pushed up to June, with two quarter point tightenings priced in for 2022. Wall Street firmed too on the back of strong earnings with more new record highs on the USA500 and the USA30. Also underpinning sentiment are expectations that the fiscal package will make it out of Congress. Fed Chair Powell warned that inflation could be higher and more persistent than previously expected. US Yields – 10yr backed up 0.9 bp overnight to 1.64%. Equities mixed – USA100 paced the advances though, climbing 0.9% amid support from the slip in yields – 4582. USA100 bounced to 15602. Facebook reported mixed third quarter earnings on Monday, slightly missing revenue estimates but continuing to grow its user base. FB +2%. TSLA (+12.6%) joins the$1 trillion market cap group after 11 yrs – took AMZN 22 yrs. It’s bigger than the combined value of the next 9 biggest car makers but it sells less than 1% of world car sales. Elon Mush added $36BN to his net wealth yesterday alone. UBS beats on revenue – but sales are mixed. USOil holds up again on supply concerns & trades close to 7-year highs at $82.50. Gold spiked at $1808. FX markets – EURUSD 1.1600, Cable bounced 1.3778, USDJPY – reversed from 113.97 highs to PP at 113.86. European Open The December 10-year Bund future is down -20 ticks at 168.45, underperforming versus US futures, although in cash markets the US 10-year rate is down from overnight highs, but still up 0.4 bp at 1.63%, as a 0.5% gain in the USA100 is leading US stock futures higher. GER30 and UK100 are posting gains of 0.2% and 0.1% at the moment, after a somewhat mixed session across Asia. Today – Upcoming central bank decisions will remain in focus, with ECB and BoJ set to announce their decisions on Thursday. Earnings: Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, Eli Lilly, Novartis, Twitter, General electric, UBS, Robinhood. Today’s economic calendar will be of interest as well, and features October consumer confidence and September new home sales. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.28%) Reversed overnight gains from 81.88 high tp currently 81.50 area. Faster MAs, RSI & Stochastic turned lower, while in contrast MACD signal line & histogram keep rising, implying to a potential limited pullback. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date : 25th October 2021. Market Update – October 25 – Big Earnings Week Ahead, USD Cooler. USD (USDIndex 93.50) cools a tad & again tests 4-wk low (93.44). PMIs biased to the upside as Powell talked taper but no rate rises yet, Democrats narrowed their differences on the $3.5b infra bill & Yellen talked new taxes. Yields hold up, Equities mixed Friday, FUTS down. Big week for Earnings – Oil up again on supply concerns, gold back to $1800. Evergrande – Restarted 10 building projects over weekend, announced move away from real estate towards EV production. US Yields (10yr closed higher at 1.665) & – now 1.6500% Equities mixed – USA500 -4.88 (-0.11%) at 4544 (NASDAQ –0.82%) – Big movers – SNAP -26.59% & INTEL -11.68%; Big Earnings misses, FB -5.05%, GOOGL & AMZN –3%, TSLA +1.75% – USA500.F back to 4540. Asian equities weaker. USOil up again on supply concerns & trades close to 7-year highs at $83.00 Gold very volatile Friday ($1782-$1813-$1793 on close) Back to pivot at $1800 now. FX markets – EURUSD 1.1650, Cable 1.3770, & USDJPY – (after a strong day on Friday (113.40 low) now at 113.60. Week Ahead Earnings from 5 x tech giants (FB today), plus major European Banks. Policy meetings from the ECB, BoJ & BOC, economic data includes US Q3 GDP & PCE. Plenty of CB speak, the UK Budget and month end too. European Open December 10-yr Bund future up 23 ticks at 168.51. DAX & FTSE 100 futures up 0.15% & 0.25% respectively. Inflation risks remained in focus as oil prices continue to climb higher while bottlenecks in supply chains lead to rising cost pressures. The combination already weighed on manufacturing PMIs last week & are likely to also depress the German Ifo confidence reading today ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting. Fed Chair Powell signalled on Friday that inflation could stay higher for longer & that the taper is coming. ECB by contrast has pushed decisions on PEPP & APP back to the December meeting, which means this week’s ECB will be watched mainly for signals from Lagarde at the press conference. TToday – German IFO and BoE’s Tenreyro. Earnings: Michelin, Facebook, Restaurant Brands. HSBC surprises with 74% rise in Q3 profit and $2bln buyback. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.45%) Recovering from a strong day run fro JPY last week. Up from 84.50 tlow on Friday to test 85.00 now. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram rising, RSI 51 & neutral. H1 ATR 0.189, Daily ATR 0.817. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date : 21st October 2021. Market Update – October 21 – Stocks & USD slip on big Earnings Day. USD (USDIndex 93.55) cools a tad and again tests 2-week low (93.47) Yields stronger again, Equities closed up, but FUTS are down (Nikkei -2% on stronger YEN and Yuan). Big day for Earnings – TESLA beat but revenue numbers disappointed some. Oil up on drawdown. Evergrande – Bad News $1.7bn sale of 51% of HK unit to Hopson OFF, $1.7bn sale of HK HQ OFF, $83.5m coupon default triggers tomorrow. Good News $260m bond coupon, extended by 3 mths US Yields (10yr closed higher at 1.63) & – now 1.6533% Equities moved ground higher USA500 +16 (+0.74%) at 4536 (NASDAQ –0.05%) – Big movers – Verizon +2.41% & ABBT +3.3% (PayPal – 4.91%) – USA500.F back to 4500. Asian equities weaker. New VIX contract at +1.49% at 19.60 USOil up on drawdown n strong demand at $82.00 after EIA inventories showed -400K vs build of 2.1m Gold holds at 4-day highs – $1785 FX markets – a recovering USD – EURUSD 1.1646, Cable down from 1.3830+ to 1.3800, & USDJPY – off 4-year highs and pivots at 114.00. European Open The December 10-year Bund future is down -16 ticks, US futures are also in the red. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are both down -0.45 and US futures are also in the red, with the NASDAQ underperforming again, after already closing slightly lower yesterday. Indices remain at high levels, but tapering concerns, the global energy rout and supply chain concerns are capping the outlook for global growth. Markets will continue to watch earnings reports and central bank comments, especially in the UK where officials clearly are laying the ground for an early lift off. Meanwhile the announcement of Weidmann’s departure has raised hopes that the ECB will push even more to circumvent the no-bailout clause permanently – after the end of PEPP, which already helped BTPs to outperform yesterday. Today – US Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Business Index, Existing Home Sales, EZ Consumer Confidence, EU Council Meeting, Fed’s Daly, Waller, RBA’s Lowe, Earnings: AT&T, Intel, American Airlines, Southwest Airlines, ABB, (bottleneck problems) Vivendi, Hermes, (beat) Pernod Ricard,(beat) Barclays, (Revenue big beat) Unilever (Sales miss). Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.50%) Rejection of 86.25 this morning as Yen lifts after a very weak October. Faster MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line dips and & histogram slips significantly lower, RSI 40.00 off OS level, H1 ATR 0.189, Daily ATR 0.817. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Meet a maverick on Blockster   Blockster is a cryptocurrency social platform.   Blockster connects everyone within the blockchain industry into one place—all the cryptocurrencies, the teams behind the projects, as well as, the traders and investors. Communicate and network with the very core of the blockchain industry, and stay ahead of the market trends via Blockster.   Get insightful posts, reviews, breaking news, interesting comments, and latest updates from the world of cryptos, from Azeez Mustapha: https://blockster.com/AzeezMustapha46102 
    • Nice article send in here, do sharing other such articles and also share your experience of Forex Trading.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.