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tradingwizzard

Dow Jones = 100,000 Target

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I am generally bearish by nature.....I just choose to wait for the opportune time to sell rather than fighting the trend.

 

disclaimer: no one forced me to write this, I dont care about 10k, 100k or 1mil in the dow, I am just a cynical middle aged man but have always been so even when younger, I agree this is not a contest, my computers will soon be back on line after renovations gone astray, I have zero respect for builders even though my brothers are in the building game, even less respect for accountants, after time off from trading I am less interested in day trading and more interested in bigger picture themes. No animals were hurt in this renovation unless you include children (hey - you gotta applaud their small hands are good for somethings) and my bank account.

 

I think that we're about to whitness a major squeeze to the upside....people don't seem to realize what this pattern (double three running) means

 

TW

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tend to agree with you.

Usually before a decline you either often have a squeeze up of some sort....or a false break to the downside. Both sucker people in.....and provide better opportunities to short rather than just trying to pick a top in a bull market.

However I admit I have no skin in the game in the US equity market at present

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It's going to be fun for the next few years. When tapering starts, all markets will resume more traditional levels of volatility. The vix is at 12.5 with the 52 week high at 22. Amazing! Keep in mind that when tapering happens, it will likely mean the economy is doing well enough that it doesn't need such a high level of stimulus. By that point ( some time next year) retail money will begin to pour in as the market continues to make new highs. The last sucker will buy somewhere around the fall of 2015 or early 2016, then a drop then the squeeze and a 20% correction. 20% from what? Maybe 2400- 2500? Who knows. That will bring us back down to these levels. Patuca and company would be best advised to average up.

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It's going to be fun for the next few years. When tapering starts, all markets will resume more traditional levels of volatility. The vix is at 12.5 with the 52 week high at 22. Amazing! Keep in mind that when tapering happens, it will likely mean the economy is doing well enough that it doesn't need such a high level of stimulus. By that point ( some time next year) retail money will begin to pour in as the market continues to make new highs. The last sucker will buy somewhere around the fall of 2015 or early 2016, then a drop then the squeeze and a 20% correction. 20% from what? Maybe 2400- 2500? Who knows. That will bring us back down to these levels. Patuca and company would be best advised to average up.

 

I don't know about tapering.....Yellen is coming and she was pretty clear that the economy needs MORE stimulus, not tapering.....any time soon would not be the case......plus....maybe they will taper, but what if after tapering let's say 20 bln the economic releases are coming on the negative side again?.....well, stimulus back on the table.....

 

just saying....

 

TW

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I don't know about tapering.....Yellen is coming and she was pretty clear that the economy needs MORE stimulus, not tapering.....any time soon would not be the case......plus....maybe they will taper, but what if after tapering let's say 20 bln the economic releases are coming on the negative side again?.....well, stimulus back on the table.....

 

just saying....

 

TW

 

quantitative easing has added very close to nothing to the economy. I expect that tapering will take away close to nothing too.one thing's for certain, the Fed now will use quantitative easing as a new tool for the foreseeable future.

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any bear still in the house?..........crap, they will not taper........markets will not be positioned in such a manner with a tapering to come anytime soon (at leas 1 year horizon in my opinion).......Philly Fed employment component was a disaster the other day.........just saying

 

TW

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The following maybe of some help .

Looking for possible TOPS in SPX 500

The height of the 3 rectangles named a b c , ( left side ) end all to the 1538.5 obvious maximum.

The beginning is chosen as drawn from significant points.

We compared the current bullish wave that started from point 3 gray circle. ( the same rectangles on the right side )

We have chosen a fibo expansion ‘’1’’ ‘’ 2 ‘’ ‘’ 3 ‘’.

Conclusions as far

Current price 27 dec , being 1840

overpassed 1715 -gray rectangle

Still below 1977 and 2085

The fibo expansion ‘’1’’ ‘’ 2 ‘’ ‘’ 3 ‘’ projects 2085 that almost coincides with blue rectangle ( the highest of 3 )

This makes this point of great interest.

Prices at 1715 1840 1977 2085 are of great importance .

 

e0ij.png

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The following maybe of some help .

Looking for possible TOPS in SPX 500

The height of the 3 rectangles named a b c , ( left side ) end all to the 1538.5 obvious maximum.

The beginning is chosen as drawn from significant points.

We compared the current bullish wave that started from point 3 gray circle. ( the same rectangles on the right side )

We have chosen a fibo expansion ‘’1’’ ‘’ 2 ‘’ ‘’ 3 ‘’.

Conclusions as far

Current price 27 dec , being 1840

overpassed 1715 -gray rectangle

Still below 1977 and 2085

The fibo expansion ‘’1’’ ‘’ 2 ‘’ ‘’ 3 ‘’ projects 2085 that almost coincides with blue rectangle ( the highest of 3 )

This makes this point of great interest.

Prices at 1715 1840 1977 2085 are of great importance .

 

e0ij.png

 

What you are looking for there seems to be an irregular flat for the bigger correction, but .......as there is always a but......what comes next is nothing close to Elliott or something else.....

 

any explanations?

 

thanks

 

TW

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What you are looking for there seems to be an irregular flat for the bigger correction, but .......as there is always a but......what comes next is nothing close to Elliott or something else.....

 

any explanations?

 

thanks

 

TW

Prices in stock exchanges ( usa , german etc. ) may go more easily higher as no obvious resistance exists while a top may appear sooner or later .

Only projected resistances exist.

May be the simpler of them is the one described in terms of equality. I have chosen equality as I ’’ forced ‘’ myself to analyse in a simple way comparing the current wave with each of the 3 significant moves in the past attempting to the '''sooner ''

The assumption is that the current wave may either end or at least find resistance at the measured prices.

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Prices in stock exchanges ( usa , german etc. ) may go more easily higher as no obvious resistance exists while a top may appear sooner or later .

Only projected resistances exist.

May be the simpler of them is the one described in terms of equality. I have chosen equality as I ’’ forced ‘’ myself to analyse in a simple way comparing the current wave with each of the 3 significant moves in the past attempting to the '''sooner ''

The assumption is that the current wave may either end or at least find resistance at the measured prices.

 

hi livernik,

 

I hear what you are saying. Just arguing with the fact that "sooner or later" is a relative term in trading.

 

How would you define sooner in terms of price and/or time?

 

TW

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hi livernik,

 

I hear what you are saying. Just arguing with the fact that "sooner or later" is a relative term in trading.

 

How would you define sooner in terms of price and/or time?

 

TW

''Sooner or later '' has the meaning and reminds that from a zero basis concept anything may happen. It is placed in an introductory phrase and does not need to be ''a relative term in trading ''

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When the guy how owns the deli across the street tells me that he bought stocks I will know the top is in place. He is still bearish...:)

 

nice comparison......

 

the thing is that Fed still injects 75 billion on a monthly basis....this kind of money is not just vanishing into the air

 

TW

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Seriously?

 

Amazing how such a minor down move makes people think the bull is dead. We have more volatility, but the move up is still solidly intact. Great trading, long and short, if you are a shorter term trader. This market has multiple years left on the upside. We just have to deal with more volatility.

 

Start getting concerned somewhere near September or October 2016; otherwise, for now, enjoy the ride. Get long anywhere. Dip or not.

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The Dow has completed an important pattern to the upside and is now feeling the ramifications. The pattern began in October 2013 with a momentum move that lasted the minimum 9 consecutive days. It then went into the trending phase (1-13 red numbers) and after a small downside reflex proceeded into another momentum move (1-9 green numbers above the candles) that lasted into to the end of the calendar year. At this point, following the 9-13-9 move the Dow should be exhausted and need to correct the advance.

 

It has just completed what would need to be the minimum correction to the downside as of 2/3/14 by posting 9 consecutive down bars (down bars are determined by closing below the close 4 days ago NOT the previous day). At this point the initial downside momentum should level off as buyers begin to nibble.

 

The low at point A on the chart will be very important and if the move proceeds into a full downside trending phase 1-13 red candles then the lower channel boundary at point B will come into play.

 

There will be upside resistance 15745 from the upper channel boundary and more resistance at the high of the right most shaded box on the chart at 16455.

2014-02-04_8-29-33-X.thumb.png.ffb50dc69509fc1f283fcd9f4fdde747.png

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The Dow has completed an important pattern to the upside and is now feeling the ramifications. The pattern began in October 2013 with a momentum move that lasted the minimum 9 consecutive days. It then went into the trending phase (1-13 red numbers) and after a small downside reflex proceeded into another momentum move (1-9 green numbers above the candles) that lasted into to the end of the calendar year. At this point, following the 9-13-9 move the Dow should be exhausted and need to correct the advance.

 

It has just completed what would need to be the minimum correction to the downside as of 2/3/14 by posting 9 consecutive down bars (down bars are determined by closing below the close 4 days ago NOT the previous day). At this point the initial downside momentum should level off as buyers begin to nibble.

 

The low at point A on the chart will be very important and if the move proceeds into a full downside trending phase 1-13 red candles then the lower channel boundary at point B will come into play.

 

There will be upside resistance 15745 from the upper channel boundary and more resistance at the high of the right most shaded box on the chart at 16455.

 

does this have anything to do with DeMark sequential indicator?

 

thanks

 

TW

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does this have anything to do with DeMark sequential indicator?

 

thanks

 

TW

 

Yes, the Seeker is a very close cousin--much of the same logic with a few enhancements. The 9-13-9 pattern doesn't come along all that often so I wanted to share it with traders tracking the Dow. The same pattern is also present in the NASDAQ and SPX.

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