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Found 27 results

  1. I notice that the ESZ4 is trading 9 points lower than the ESU4 but with the same action and higher volume. Can someone elaborate this price difference? Do the price always move in unison? SHould I be trading the ESZ4 rather than the ESU4? Are there unique oppurtunities or dangers associated with rollover? I am a begginer and this is my first rollover period. I would appreciate any veteran insights!
  2. I trade the E-min and make money every day. I do some swing trading, and I regularly trade the NASDAQ, Copper Notes and Bonds. I am an auction market trader and I use a combination of CBOT Market Profile, volume at price analysis, and pattern recognition techniques. I have been a screen trader for thiry years and have tried everythig. What I have now works for me. I made 22 points in the NASDAQ today, shorted the ES a 1370 and am still holding, shorted copper at 3.6600 and am stil holding. You don't have to believe me, I will post set ups staring tomorrow, the proof is in the trades. I generally make one to 3 trades a day. The first set up is usually between 7:30 and 9:30 CST in the morning. I hope I can help you in your trading. The ES is the hardest to trade because it is, like today, frequently range bound, but it can be successfully day traded. Hpe it helps, Spookywill
  3. Hi,dear all, I am a new trader in stock index futures. The volatility and uncertainty of price action of the index futures confused me in trend identification & position holding. Can anyone let me know how to bear a high volatility situation and hold the positions?
  4. Hey everyone , I have a quick question that I cant seem to find the answer to, does anyone use moving averages on a tick chart ? I typically use a 233 and 377 tick chart... any responses would be appreciated . Thanks.
  5. Hi, Edit: Right, so i think ive answered my own question through research. The reason for the capital requirement is the "initial margin" requirements set by the exchange CME+broker. As far as i understand it they require around $4500 as a form of liquidity(insurance) per contract, pretty much to do risk management for you..? Still seems high to me given the actual movements a contract typically can do. -- I'm a noob. And i keep reading about how E-minis require relatively huge capital to trade safely, but dont understand it. I've also noticed all the warnings of it being extremely risky for those who do not understand it, hence this post. So the advice i keep seeing is to have a bankroll of $5000-$10.000 PER contract you trade. A general observation of the ES is that it tends to move 15-30 points an average day. It is also very rare to see it move more than 10 points in 1 hour, usually averaging 2-4 points of movement an hour. In contrast to forex, this seems a lot "safer" - making the likelyhood of huge sudden moves a lot lower. Now, not that any strategy would allow this to happen, but lets take a worst case scenario. You've got $5000 on your account, and buy 1 ES contract when it opens. You for some reason ride the downtrend and the ES closes 30 points down. Netting you a loss of 30x$50 = $1500. You still have $3500 left. Now, if you have a long term strategy that must allow for huge stop losses, then i can get behind the $5000 recommendation. However, if i were to guess, i would imagine most strategies(at least mine would) use a SL of.... 2-5 points? $100-250 potential loss. Then my question is, why would you advise having a $5000-10.000 bankroll, when your worst case SL stops you out at a $100-250 loss? Is this the "max 2% capital risk" rule in action? Dont want to come off seeming reckless here, but somehow this just seems a bit overly cautious to me? Appreciate any thoughts!
  6. I have been trading the opening gaps for quite a while. My opening gap trades are based on some research I do trying to understand the behavior of gaps in various market conditions. It has been profitable for me and some of the other people I helped. In this thread I will share my information with you. I will also suggest the days and the conditions that I think are profitable to trade the gap. But first lets start with basics: Frequently the market opens in the morning at a different price than the price it closed at, the day before. This is called an opening gap. If the market opens higher, it is called an up gap and if it opens lower, it is called a down gap. Statistics shows there is a tendency that the price moves towards the close of yesterday. Many times the price reaches the close of yesterday, in which case we say the gap was filled. In fact, about 70% of all gaps get filled the same day. This should not be a surprise because the close of yesterday is the most important price we have. It is a price that buyers and sellers finally agreed on after a whole day of fighting with each others. This is a price that makes the most psychological impact on traders minds. Experienced traders usually pick a narrow area of market to become master at. This area of opening gap can be the that small area of the market you may want to consider to be your area. There are many advantages in trading the opening gap. The one advantage is that most of the time your trade is done by 11:00 AM, many times much earlier, and you can have the rest of the day for yourself. Generally speaking, there is a tendency that market closes the gap at some point. This is called fading a gap. However, this general tendency is not strong enough to justify the risk and reward for any size gap at any day under any market conditions or recent market patterns. Successful gap traders pick certain gaps under certain conditions that gives them the edge. Just like any other strategy, you want to pick the cream of the crop to trade. I have studied the opening gaps for quite a while. Using my background in probability and statistics, I have worked on many aspects of opening gaps, starting with the most common aspect that is fading a gap.
  7. ES trades well using Hurst. SP500 ES Futures March Hurst Cycles Weekly Trade Idea All Aboard the 18 Month Trough Slide. The SP500 is ready to move lower into its 18 month and possibly synchronous 54 month trough over the next 30 to 60 days. How did I arrive at this? From counting cycles and observing potential trough locations. Of course the principle of variation is always present so we could see that. Recap of Last Week The Recent Run Up was a Good Trade that I took as price went through the 10 Day FLD. I did a video about it and showed that with the strategy that I use, "C" category trades are perfectly acceptable to take on the 10 Day FLD. It was profitable. There were no more trades on ES with my system. This view differs from many systems because they probably over trade. There was no more profit to eke out of ES to the upside according to Hurst. Last week's trade "]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m5GGMmlwpMc[/url] This next week's trade The Next and Only Trade Idea for ES I am Considering: I am buying puts on SPX as it crosses the 5 Day FLD next week. http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-eAlVeWfkSQI/UTJOv0qWNmI/AAAAAAAAAsc/yXXe5XrKPHs/s1600/ES-3.2.13-%232.gif This is because: -we are in the last 80 day cycle of the 40 week cycle -we are descending into an 18 month trough come mid April we are there -The peak in ES is expected to be Right Translated or a lower high due to cycle pressure down -The 5 Day FLD is an action signal that will put me on the smallest wave that will take me to the target of the 18 month trough. -The FLDs up to the 20 week are cascading and likely to be shot through to the downside based on recent projections. I will be paying close attention and watching Tuesday for a very hard run up trend day, then a break of the 5 Day FLD to enter short. This trade will last 3 to 4 days and I will take profits when the puts return 50%. A Recent Question: SimpleTrades, a member on tradeking forum asked me if I think ribbon analysis is a form of cyclic analysis, unfortunately, I dont think so. Hurst is the only method that offers forecasting to a precise degree. I think Hurst had it all in the cycles course, and professional Hurst Traders will agree with me there. That being said, I follow and promote a strategy that was created through the spirit of Hurst and nothing else: The FLD trading Strategy. I only follow Hurst or Hurst Traders that have taken his work further. If you're making an investment in your future, make it the best one possible. Start right immediately. Cycles can be observed but to make actionable trading signals on them, you need a consistent strategy. Trading is not simply taking arbitrary trades. The professionals follow a system or strategy that is concrete and devoid of stress. This is the only way to trade IMO, after years of losses and stress. Hurst is not an indicator, it is a system that allows you to be extremely accurate with your trades, and be on the right side of the market a overwhelming amount of time.
  8. Dear traders, I'm looking for an ES FREE demo trading platform (for a long period, not a few weeks trial). Is there such a thing? Appreciate your assitance with that. Thanks, Iris
  9. Hello, I been trading the ES for nearly 1 month using Apex platform. The results so far has been a max loss of $700. My back ground is mostly buy and hold stocks for long term based on fundamentals, but for the last 6 months, I been studying technical analysis and money management. My approach to trading the ES is evidence based technical analysis by identifying overbought/sold, chart patterns, support and resistance, and fibs retracement and then I either go LONG or SHORT on the ES with hopes of 3+ points. I only use MACD and RSI. The losses occur, when I am not being patient or not verifying everything, before taking the trade. My question to experienced ES traders is what do I need to learn to with ES to be more efficient? Should I get a mentor/coaching? Introduce more lower indicators in my evidence. Currently I am reading Candlestick Charting Explained. Any advice is welcome.
  10. I am testing a set up with 10 trades of 3 contracts each and the results (conservative estimates) yielded a net return after commission of 3.62 points. This is for the ES and it is for day trading. Approximately 5 trades a day. Without me detailing what it is, would you trade this set up?
  11. Over the past few days, the ES has been moving back down from the current highs made at 1377.25 on 2/29/12. The current tight uptrend has been in place since a pullback of around 60+ points in Dec last year. Now many people have been calling for a market top recently and so I thought it'd be useful to discuss the chances of this. Whilst this is a discussion about the ES, of course the same logic can be applied to anything else. Right now, I am seeing some signs of a possible pullback. Note that I said pullback not top. I think the distinction is important as I personally feel that the stock markets could be ultimately set to go much higher given the support that is so freely offered to them. I have done a couple of charts to help illustrate a key point. The first shows how until yesterday, the last 3 consecutive RTH sessions in ES to show lower highs were actually before the 60+ point pullback. Admittedly the ranges were much bigger at that time, but nonetheless, since then has been pretty much one-way traffic. The other point is that value or most traded volume in the same last 3 rth sessions, has been lower each day. Now this is not to say we are going into a retracement necessarily either. It's more than possible that we do move lower to establish a short term bracket low and move sideways for a time before moving one way or the other. Auctions basically tend to go:- Imbalance-Balance-Test-Imbalance The current move up from Dec '11 is imbalance. Anyway, balance can be short or not so short. The next chart shows possible areas of importance where the market may no longer be imbalanced to the upside and possibly when it may become imbalanced to the downside.(1350 odd and 1330 odd). The question is, what do you guys think of the odds of a short term retracement here?
  12. Im just confused about the price of S&P 500 and ES. When the S&P 500 opens in the market, is it the same price as the ES? And when it closes, are S&P 500 and ES the same price? I am just confused where the prices of ES and prices of S&P 500 are derived from.
  13. Made a chart today depicting where Goldman Sachs and friends like; Saloman Brothers, Smith Barney, Merrill Lynch and JP Morgan traded today in the S&P pit for Wed Nov. 9, 2011. The chart is an eMini ESz1, with up arrows (buy) and down arrows (sell) area trades. These are the actual areas the 800 lbs traded in the SPz1 contract on the CME floor. Notice where the reversals are in accordance with the arrows. Like to read your comments. PM for Skype.
  14. Starting before market opens. If I draw in the major S/R levels from the premarket. Then watch how the price behaves at these levels. As the day progresses, then update the S/R levels and add and delete others as appropriate depending whether price respects them or not. For Example 1. A test of a level then a retest as confirmation it may hold. For Example 2. A break of a level then immediate rejection of same level back to inside a range. Would this be a reasonable start to investigating a possible trading strategy using only price action S/R levels ? Or is too simplistic ? And may I need more > such as pivots, prev day high lows etc. Just wondering if anyone uses just price action and S/R levels alone as a method of trading. I'm currently doing some demo trading on this and am trying to do some backtesting as well to iron out the rules etc. Would be useful to know if any other traders are trading in this way or similiar.
  15. I trade the ES contract throughout the day starting around 7:30am EST to around 3pm EST. I am looking other like-minded people that use the Emini-Watch indicators (Better ProAm, Better SineWave, and Better Momentum) to share trading ideas throughout the day via Skype, IM, or other. As you know, trading is a lonely endeavor and besides having some company, I think it would be mutually beneficial to bounce ideas off of each other. My preference is to only include people that have been using the Emini-Watch indicators (all 3) for a minimum of 3 months and to trade the ES contract for all or most of each trading day. Please send me a private message with a background on your trading and your use of the Emini-Watch indicators if you are interested in this. Thanks
  16. I mainly trade the e-mini after 11am/pt or 2pm/et and found that to be a better time fir directional moves. I've just started trading the mornings as well and found it more difficult but have been having some success trading in the direction of the opening bias and then reverse on the 1'st fade usually around 15 minute after the opening or so. I only do it on 1 contract but it has been working so far.. Am I approaching it correctly? Has anyone here been consistently success trading the opening bell? IF so, I'd like to hear about your approach to the opening bell.. Much thanks, Tradezilla
  17. I personally do not use stop losses instead i manage my position (however i typically have a 10 point crash stop which i have yet to take once). I think this is a big fallacy in the industry and one of the reason why over 90% fail ... just wanted to hear everyone thoughts....
  18. Don Miller has recorded one of his trading sequences on the ES: Out of interest I marked up his entries and exits on 1 sec chart:
  19. Hi I'm wondering the difference between this way to set data with Multicharts. It's changed from previous version ., now uses by default Equity index futures(combined),but if you check trading hours on CME website,IMHO ,the right set is Equity index futures(Globex). Maybe i've misunderstood something ,and i'm a little confused. someone could explain me the difference between two setting ? i found nothing on Google or on the relate websites of CME and MC. thanks
  20. Hey guys...first of all, I'm not just a braggart tooting my horn. I'm just starting out and opened an account just recently. My broker supports NinjaTrader and I've been trading simulation mode for the last couple of days. Here's a few screenies of my account performance for yesterday and today. I knew you guys would understand my excitement, and not take it wrong. Hopefully, I can keep it up, then go live soon!
  21. INTRODUCTION By now most people know that the CME has changed the way that they distribute data (2.5 times as many trades/day, avg. size trade dropped form 12 to around 4 contracts, 80% drop-off in trades greater than 199 contracts). In the past, if I bought 100 contracts at market, the tape (time and sales) would directly reflect this. After the CME changes, the tape no longer shows my single 100 buy market order. Instead, my buy order is broken up on a per counterparty basis. Meaning, if it took 100 counterparties each offering a single lot to fill my market order, then the tape would show 100 one lot orders. As a result, filtering by trade size in an attempt to follow the smart money/institutional trader has become obsolete (sure, one can filter by 50 contracts, but there are retail traders that trade in 50 lots also, so I don't believe this method is very valid). TAKING THIS A STEP FURTHER If a large market order is executed (assume 100 or greater), this means that not only is someone willing to buy 100 contracts, but someone had a limit order of 100 contracts or more offered. Essentially, this is a zero sum game in regards to snuffing out the smart money. At worst, the big guys are playing games with the market, trying to manipulate the tape by getting people to follow large orders. I have a lot more thoughts on these changes, how to adapt, potential solutions, etc. but I want to hold off for now so as not to pollute the creativity pool. So here is the question to the group: Due to the CME changes, how does one now follow the smart money/institutional trader? Note: UrmaBlume has a solid thread on "trade intensity" that many would find interesting. Definitely worth the read. However, I would appreciate it if the trading approach from that thread did not spill over into this thread as this thread's purpose is to generate new ideas and approaches. All ideas, no matter how outlandish, welcome.
  22. I recently read a post by Dr. Brett about Median Volume levels per 30 min period. The idea was that when the volume was significantly above the median for that period, larger players were likely involved in the market at that time. It got me thinking on how else to identify larger players in the ES market. Can anyone share things they use that they feel identifies the larger traders? I have Market Delta and intend to try and use some of their tools to help answer this question. Thanks very much.
  23. I was previously using Sierra Charts with the Transact DataFeed. I noticed problems with missing data in the charts and realized that the Transact datafeed is unreliable. Since then, I have switched to Ninja Zen Fire. I am unable to figure out how to set pivot point parameters with Zen Fire. Has anyone had the same problem? Any suggestions?
  24. Anybody trade this strategy? If so, what kind of entry do you use? Anticipate or confirmation, or maybe something else?
  25. Which style do you guys prefer, and why?
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