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notouch
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Everything posted by notouch
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They do say sell in May and go away but Elliot Wave isn't a great way of calling tops. We don't see any signs of a top right now like an exhaustion spike or a double top and until we do we can assume the up trend is still intact. Trying to call tops every day is sort of a pointless endeavour.
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Interesting TinGull. I agree patience is the key but I'm focussing less on particular levels and more on the market's reaction to any pullback. Price and volume analysis, whether using the developing Market Profile, VSA or old-school candlestick + volume are giving great buy signals. This easy money won't last forever so we've got to exploit it while it lasts.
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Not much fighting needed in the equity indices right now. The only way is up.
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That's unusual for an American. There can't be many people born in America of Albanian parents. I live in Britain and all my ancestors are British by the way.
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Price and volume on the index futures and indices themselves gave us all the information we needed to know. I can't see how adding another 45 stocks to the DJIA is going to help us spot institutional selling.
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I remember the postman delivered my mail early the day before the crash. Does this mean the market will crash every time the postman delivers my mail early? There's a saying in my country "hard cases make bad law". I think trying to draw conclusions based on things that happened before a freak 500 point crash is not going to help your trading.
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Interesting article MrPaul but I think it contains a lot of flawed thinking. For a start it only contains one example. Obviously you'd need to see it repeated many times before drawing any conclusions. It also makes the mistake of thinking that just because one of these institutional indices are not going up this represents institutional selling but that isn't necessarily so. It just means some common stocks that are held by some institutions (as well as the general public) are underperforming compared to the S&P 500. I don't think you can jump to the conclusion from that that every time these institutional indices diverge from the S&P 500 then the market is about to crash. That XII index contains all the DJIA stocks plus 45 others. For example while the DJIA only contains Coca-Cola, XII also contains Pepsi. I doubt it will prove as useful on a long-term basis as some here seem to be believe. ^XII: Components for AMEX INSTITUTIONAL INDEX - Yahoo! Finance
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Am I right in thinking that the only way to use bobajob's spreadsheet is to input the TPOs manually? If so I'm going to produce my own Excel VBA code that produces the profile automatically from IB data without the need to be fumbling around inputing letters into a spreadsheet. I like ryker's design but unfortunately (and understandably) he's password protected the VBA code. I think I can do the whole thing from scratch though. Edit: ah, I see how bobajob has done it, using the formula box. It seems you still have to enter the data for each column manually. I'm going to automate the whole process with IB data and VBA.
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The Amex Institutional Index is completely different from the Institutional Holdings Index. Both of them are sort of interesting but they don't really tell us what "big brother" is up to. Google, for example, is in the Institutional Holdings Index but is also very popular with retail investors. So if retail investors started dumping their Google stocks this would have a negative impact on the Institutional Holdings Index but the institutions could be buying what retail is selling. Also we don't know who these "institutions" are. They probably include pension and mutual funds who are usually classified as "dumb money". Trading syndicates on the other hand are not institutions even though they are definitely smart money.
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Well to an answer my own question it seems to be an index of 22 stocks. On what basis these stocks are chosen I don't know. I guess it's some sort of ETF. But if you're thinking that this Institutional Holdings Index is a measure of institutional buying and selling, I don't think it is. ^IXH: Components for INSTITUTIONAL HOLDINGS INDEX - Yahoo! Finance
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I've read the first post of the thread but my question is really just a factual one. What does the Institutional Holdings Index measure?
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What exactly does the Insitutional Holdings Index measure? It has a very grand sounding name but that counts for nothing unless it measures something worthwhile. It's the nature of institutional traders not to make their positions available to the general public so I'd be surprised if any meaningful information was available just by looking at this index.
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I think stocks are what's on everyone's mind, making record highs around the world. With so many great stock index futures to trade around the world (KOSPI, NIKKEI, FTSE, DAX, CAC etc.) it make no sense just to concentrate on US markets. As for the original question, there are so many fake orders entered on the order book it makes no sense to use that information for trading.
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Do You Think Market Is Making A Ceiling?
notouch replied to malvado xetra's topic in Market News & Analysis
A daily candlestick chart is even more striking in showing big time buying coming in on the lows to drive it higher. There's no point fighting a megatrend like this. Nothing yet suggests the bull market is over. -
There's an exciting way and a boring way of trading bonds. The exciting way is to trade around economic numbers. Look at bonds around 0930 EST on NFP Friday and you won't say they're boring to trade. The boring way is to look for the longer term trend. Either way you need to combine auction theory with fundamental analysis. If you don't understand why core CPI coming in at 0.1% rather than 0.2% as expected increased the price of bonds then that's something you have to learn. It's not like stock index futures where there's a spike and then the market ignores the number. It's not enough to get the economic number 10 seconds after release. Use a news squawk to get the release immediately. A good free one is www.NewsStrike.com.
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The bond markets have massive liquidity so that's seldomly an issue. Bonds move inversely to interest rate expectations so anything that increases the likelihood of rate increases (particularly higher inflation) will lower the price of bonds so there's big volatility around key economic releases like CPI and NFP. There are no internals as such because the underlying is a single instrument rather than an index. The only "internal" is interest rate expectations. The shorter term instruments are more responsive to economic news than longer term instruments. Consider CME Eurodollar for short term interest rates. Also there are bond futures for all countries so you might want to trade the Japanese 10 year bond or the German Bund.
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Everyone has to make predictions, just on different time frames. One person is predicting the Dow will go up 10 points in the next 5 minutes, another person is predicting it will go down 200 points in the next 2 days. So it's perfectly valid to say "I think the DOW will go down 100 points today" if that's what your daily charts are telling you. Intraday scalping isn't the only way of trading.
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Interesting chart torero. Here's the way I see it right now but not with enough confidence to take the trade right now. I'm looking for more confirmation that we've reached the top.
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Good point milliard but the Bank of England is still expecting inflation to come back to its target by the end of the year so this breakout could be the peak and the start of a long down move. Price appears to have been rejected this morning above 2.01. A bearish daily candlestick would signal a good swing short. Torero - care to post a chart of the rectangle formation? It would be interesting.
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I thinks it's worth starting a new thread on this subject because GBP/USD just broke above 2.01, which is it's high from 1992. That's not something you see very often. A breakout of a range is often followed by a big continuation trend. So where's the next resistance for Cable? The chart below suggests there's still a very long way to go - 4000 pips until the all time high. On the other hand it might be a fakeout and come straight back down.
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That was an excellent presentation, probably the best I've ever attended. I liked his analogy of those betting at the end of a horse race and if there's a lot of volume at the end of a race then there'll be a lot of liquidation once that volume turns into losing volume. Thanks to Jim Dalton and the hosts.
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The news would have been the UK CPI at 0930 London time and the German ZEW at 1000. Who said I traded 5 at a time?
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Excellent video Soultrader. Do you think you could get the same results by ignoring the line on close and just focussing on candlesticks? It seems to me that a tick hook is represented in a candlestick chart as a red candle followed by a green candle. You could use traditional candlestick analysis to get better signals e.g. a series of red candles followed by a bullish engulfing candle would be the same as a tick hook but easier to spot and maybe a more powerful indicator. A series of red candles followed by a hammer would have the same interpretation. I've always seen the TICK as just for scalpers but after seeing this video I may look at it again on higher time frames because it may be useful for timing entries on longer term positions. Thanks.
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Most of the volatility in the DAX is immediately after the open. Today the DAX had a massive up day - 1.75% up on the day (125 points) compared to the Dow's feeble 0.9%. Position trading indices is the way to go for obvious up trends like this IMHO.
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Welcome Sublime! No offence about what I said earlier. I look forward to your contributions.