notouch

Definitely strong buying coming in off the pullback and a strong close paves the way for more gains in the next few days. A time for long-only trading strategies I think.

It definitely appears to be topping on the daily charts so I'm planning to liquidate longs I've built up over the past month if weakness continues. There seems to be more volume coming in to sell the rallies than buy the dips. You'd expect at least a 50% retracement of April's monster rally. Having said that there is still a lot of buying interest on the dips, probably just dumb money at this stage but enough to keep the market in a range for now.

That website appears only to have the out-of-hours Nikkei futures offered by the CME and SGX. The only Nikkei contract really worth trading is the one offered by the Osaka Securities Exchange (OSE).

For daily and weekly charts you might just want to look at the cash index. $NIKK - SharpCharts 2 from StockCharts.com

You can get a week of historical data from IB by downloading their TWS software and using the username edemo and the password demouser. Symbol for mini Nikkei is N225M.

IB provides the data but you need to subscribe to the Osaka Securities Exchange for about $10 a month. I don't subscribe any more. I have eSignal 15 minute data is a .csv file for the full-sized Nikkei between 24/10/06 and 15/01/07 if that's any interest to you. The full sized and the mini have practically identical data as they're both electronic contracts.

My profits are consistent but I go for longer term moves. I definitely don't like roller coaster rides on my P&L so I can't really answer the question.

It sound like you mean to ask is it easier to make profits by trading frequently looking for smaller profits or less frequently looking for a larger move. For me I've always found the latter much easier. Traditional candlestick analysis was never designed for scalping, nor was Market Profile or VSA. Longer term swing trading allows for more sober and less emotional trading.

I find multi-day swing trading much easier and more profitable than scalping 10 ticks here and there during the day. I also find looking for a 40 point intraday move in YM a lot easier and more profitable than trying to find 4 10 point profits. I haven't voted because your question seems loaded in favour of the first option. I still don't really understand what your question is getting at.

Please clarify what you mean by 'roller coaster' rides on your P&L.

All the charts are very interesting but a lot of the analysis in this thread is hindsight analysis. So I thought it would be interesting to post a daily chart of YM and do a bit of VSA on it. On 04/25 we have the highest volume of the month together with a wide ranging candle which closes near its high. This suggests weakness could follow. The next day, however, is an up day which doesn't immediately suggest weakness BUT it could be interpreted as a "no demand" day given its narrow range. The bearish scenario is confirmed by today closing on its lows. Any opinions on this analysis?

You're not calling a top again are you mx? :p

That's a classic. I'd love to see the look on the other guy's face when giving him a business card like that.

When you're chatting up a woman you introduce yourself with a business card? Strange tactics...

I think it's just a graphical issue with TradeStation. A one tick chart is the same as a continuous line chart but the line should update horizontally so you have one smooth line. See my KOSPI video I posted above for illustration.

Here it is... KOSPI.swf

Here a line chart updated every second of the KOSPI futures. OK... so I sent the file to megaupload, now how do I make it appear in my post?

I think what dalby's saying is perfectly clear and a pic wouldn't illustrate it but I'll be happy to post a video.

dalby is absolutely right about the line charts. I suppose the perfect one would update with every tick but the IB one updates every second. There is no "end of interval" if it's tick-by-tick but if it's every second then obviously it would print the value it has each second. If anyone's that interested I'll post a video tomorrow of a TICK line chart that updates every second. I'm sure you can all appreciate what it look like though - total chaos.

Say it's a private fund. There are plenty of small private funds around.

Soultrader, why would you even want to set up a LLC in the US? It seems you'd just be paying tax to the US government for no reason.

"Fund manager" is good, especially if you like the idea of trading other people's money some day.

Claims about Mondays and Fridays and similar claims usually don't stand up to statistical analysis. Every man and his dog was on Bloomberg TV saying there was going to be profit taking because it was Friday and the end of the month but YM closed at an all time high. I think it's just a case of observer bias like claims that the weather is always bad on a public holiday weekend.

Have you considered the tax implications of doing that? I think a Japanese or offshore limited company would be a better option for what you're trying to achieve.

IB charts have the option for a line chart which is similar to what dalby referred to. It's basically a line on close chart that's updated every one second. One minute line on close charts seem of questionable value to me because the TICK can vary so much within a single minute but the only value you get on the chart is at the close of each minute.