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ValueTrader

Stops or Not to Stop....

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ValueTrader.. I've warned about the risks of stops for a long time. I've found that it has taken me some time and work to better my understanding.

 

First, we have to identify the context of the trade. Is it a system trade? Is it a discretionary trade? Is it a day trade? What is the leverage used? What are the exit parameters? Does the margin exist to hold over night?

 

But, let's address the issue for discretionary day traders. For discretionary day traders, I believe stops are very worthwhile and always keep in place a stop when entering any trade. However, what I really focus on is my max risk per day. I don't care if I get stopped out a lot of times or just a few times. I want to know at the end of the day that I'm not going to be down more then $X. When one has an advantage, the cost to capitalize on that advantage is the risk of being wrong.

 

If you don't apply stops then what will tend to happen is the account equity curve will mimic the instrument equity curve. This makes sense. And it is true that most traders fail to outperform the market. It also is easy to see that the type of leverage most day traders use won't be sufficient for taking on the market risk.

 

But, I still believe the key for the day trader is to avoid taking stop losses. Even very tangible edges can easily turn into break even trades when stop losses occur. What I do is I manage my trades to minimize taking stop losses using my skill, specialized software (more to come in future), and tape reading ability. I also think it is important to turn trading into a discrete game for the discretionary trader.. another article forth coming.

 

Moving beyond discretionary day trading... we have other ways of looking at things. For example, one can look at the account as the total risk for a strategy and the annualized returns as a payoff. Risking a 10k account to build it to 500k in a few years WITHOUT using stops makes a certain amount of sense.

 

Stops tend to impart a false sense of security. I mean that if you look at a strategy with a 50% DD but that uses a $200 stop loss. It is tempting to try it because there is a notion that you'll get out before the 50% DD. If the strategy had a 30% DD without stops then the same person might not trade it because they only in their mind had to accept the $200 stop loss..

 

Now.. moving beyond the day time frame, a good trader could probably avoid 70% of stop losses if they could hold.. strategic averaging down etc could probably reduce that to 90%. They have a saying " a bull market lifts all boats". It wont lift your boat if you are stopped out. It is much harder to justify stop losses for the swing trader.

 

Strategically bounding price sounds like it could be a rather effective strategy. A big mistake comes from comparing trading system draw downs to open equity draw downs, imo. I don't think they are comparable. If a trading system loses money, its gone forever. If you hold good companies or indexes then there is a good chance the holder will at least break even.

 

What does this mean? This means that if you can develop a sound method that doesn't use stop losses then while you may not be able to make a lot more profits then you can reduce your risk of losing the entire account.

 

Some caveats.... first general price series are not normally distributed so there is no rule for the market to come back... in general increasing the risk and holding period will result in the equity curve swinging more and more wildly.

 

I think there must be something better then the stop out. I have entertained converting/rolling the futures positions into limited loss positions at the end of the day or hedging. .. For example a spread/option would give one the time for the market to come back while limiting the max loss.

 

If you take small stop losses.. you must be trading a volatile instrument because you'll need catch big winners.. a reduction in volatility will prove very damaging. see my 2 dark swans of stops

 

For the day trader, again I don't think averaging down works. I tend to take size on/off very quickly but I will strategically add to positions underwater. It is very rare. The reason is that basically my leverage ratio is not suitable for that style of trading. To be honest, averaging up doesn't work too well for the futures day trader either..

 

Having said all of this, if you have an edge then and if we accept the market rewards risk in good proportion to that taken then maybe that can make one more comfortable in using stops... again I always use them.

 

... Let me say I'm not too keen on the "s-curve" the author talks about which is a martingale variation. The problem is that you are initially right capture 10 points = $500 but at the end of the curve he's at 31 total or $1550 per point.. The purpose of this sort of approach is to gain better pricing over time and most of all to never put the account of risk.

 

PS: The author of that blog comes off as trying to appear more sophisticated then he is. He's trading a single way only whereas really great traders have mastered far more. I notice a lot of vendors will try to use "confidence" words to try to make them look better.. the most common is calling other traders names like retail traders, Muppet, etc or trying to appear smarter, more sophisticated,etc... what these folks fail to understand is that there are a lot of ways to make money in the market and most don't require being a genius.

 

I chanced upon this rather interesting blog, would be interested to hear other members opinion.

 

Hammer Out! » Stops or not to stop… that is the question.

Edited by Predictor

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It appears from comments in the link that ''he'' is actually she... i believe woman in general have different view on things including trading so what works for them doesn't necessarily work for us.

 

As to OP.

Constant sl most probably isn't the best way how to approach a trade, but it certainly makes things simpler and avoids getting in trouble with making bad, emotional judgements.. As far as i understand - hers idea is not to close position until you think that closing your positions and initiating position in the other direction is a better option. If so ..and if she can pull it off then i would say she is one step ahead.

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PS: The author of that blog comes off as trying to appear more sophisticated then he is. He's trading a single way only whereas really great traders have mastered far more. I notice a lot of vendors will try to use "confidence" words to try to make them look better..[/i]

 

Aren't you doing the same thing with your posts? For example

 

Programs selling...

 

Buy programs triggering

 

lol.. either that or a big trader executed a sell program to take out the longs off 50... nice one

 

LQ providers are short biased today.. institutions long biased... this is just my intuition.. the lq providers put up real volume whereas institutions tend to add limit or go to market at certain zones.. 2 institutions battling it out now.. why does it matter? my take is the 53 seller is a lq provider.. should pull... just trying to slow down the rise in price

 

Same kind of BS Steve sometimes posts. Designed to impress newbies in my opinion.

 

TradeRunner

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TradeRunner,

 

There are some differences in what I've did and that differentiate me from Steve and other vendors here and elsewhere. I wasn't just referring to Steve, either. First, I made real-time calls. I've been one of the few who did that. I also tracked/had an open book on my calls for about 2 years. Again, not something that you'll find other vendors doing. These were audited by the C2 third-party.

 

I'm really surprised that more people didn't take notice. I have, at times, become frustrated with vendors who claim to offer transparency or make big claims but fail to do so.

 

I can guarantee the real-time analysis I've provided here is superior to most trading rooms costing $100's of dollars. I've provided it here for free.. for a few reasons actually. The main reason is that the administrators here have been nice to me but also I feel that it can enhance my performance. But no my posts aren't designed to impress new traders whatsoever. That's not to say they aren't designed to attract a certain audience.. But primarily.. my posts are designed to enhance my own performance. I'm trading real money on all of those calls, btw... For those who take notice, my calls have been spot on, and again I know because I'm trading real money. (Although, I make no claims that one could duplicate it with my calls. They are always going to be delayed as my real money is more important then the call.)

 

To summarize, I'd like to highlight the differences between myself and other vendors:

 

1. I never denigrate other traders or try to boast myself up by calling other traders retailers, muppets, etc... i.e play the confidence game. This is the pattern I noticed and called to attention. It is the pattern of calling others names or trying to make others feel stupid so that they need your products or in some cases I think it is a con game the trader pulls over his own eyes. There is a difference in that and reveling in ones ability.. which I sometimes do when I've earned it. That's the key.. when I've earned it.

2. I've a history of making real time calls. Both calls that were published and made here in real-time.

3. I am much better at explaining myself then some other vendors. I feel it is because I actually have something to say. I explain what I do or make it clear that I don't want to reveal certain information. I feel that overall my communications is much more transparent and readable.

4. I actually trade. Again, something many vendors don't do.

 

As for my insights into the market, it is certainly a creative interpretation but one that helps me.

 

As for the author of that blog, he boasted about his 17% return without even sharing any risk/adjusted performance metrics. Yes, he came off as crass and lacking knowledge.

 

One other thing but also in terms of the articles here.. it is clear that some vendors just want to post any old useless fluff article to get there name up whereas I've always felt that I had something worthwhile to share my articles.

 

You want to know the differences.. there you have it!

Edited by Predictor

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Hi. I'm the author of the blog which started this discussion. I was told about this page from a friend and felt the need to clarify a few things.

 

I'm a she... not a he. :) Andi with an I.. not a Y. I trade professionally for a rather large institutional account.. have been for six years. As the bio on my site suggestions, I run the futures and currency desk for a Swiss family office located in NYC.

 

My use of the words "rookies" or "muppets" is out of fun. If any of you follow me on twitter you would know I put up this page and I talk on twitter entirely out of entertainment. You may also notice from my blogs that I trade very rarely.... thus I have an awful lot of time to twiddle my thumbs, paint my toe nails, talk to folks on twitter and write nonsense on my blog.

 

I'm not selling a product, training people to trade or benefiting in any way whatsoever from readers of my blog or followers on twitter (aside from entertainment value). You'll notice I have no ads on my site like most blogs do, thus I receive no benefit from the traffic.

 

Mr. Predictor.... When have I boasted about returns without talking about risk? Never mind the fact that I'm not boasting about anything... but where on my blog do I glance over risk? That's actually all I've discussed on there. I believe the use of stops is a risky...and quite frankly, stupid way to trade.

 

As for my stats... feel free to ask any of the many followers I have on twitter about them. While i'm not here to prove anything to you or anyone else.. I do take offense to the suggestion that I'm boasting or trying to appear more sophisticated than I am.

 

Regarding your PS statement. I am not trying to appear sophisticated or snotty or as a genius. The blog post about stop came about when I was asked a question by a follower on twitter and I attempted to answer their question as logically and straightforward as possible. Perhaps I could have added... "if what I do doesn't work for you.... do something else."

 

Whether you consider me a "really great trader" or not... I honestly don't care. But keep in mind that many who manage funds, very large accounts or those that have produced considerately superior returns for a number of years... they often have very simple strategies that do not involve mastering multiple ways to trade.

 

"Have a plan and stick to your plan." Mine works.. and works well. If it didn't, I wouldn't be in the position I am today.

 

-- Andi

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Aren't you doing the same thing with your posts? For example

 

-------------------------------------------------

 

I noticed this and I really have to respond....first, its refreshing to see that someone is thinking...even though we don't see eye to eye....its nice to see someone notice what's going on here.

 

Regarding "real time calls"...here is Predictor's most recent "call"

 

taken from Negotiator's "Daytrading the Emini Futures" thread

 

Post 5735

 

"Good short here off the 55"

 

and

 

Post 5736

 

Oh mi oh my.... doubly nice... I'm out for late day... not pushing it

 

The problem I have with this "real time call" is as follows;

 

A) No entry price ("off the 55")

B) No stop (in this thread he states "I always use them")

C) No exit price ("out for the day....not pushing it".....)

 

I invite folks to go back in that thread and check the other "real time calls".....they are all very similar....

 

---------------------------------------------

 

As for his "ability to explain things" here is the most recent comment (post 5727)

 

"Nice work.... if you can get it. DFD

 

Slick? Big/long term/institutional sellers above 50... when I enter a trade.. I always want to know where it might fail. Buying too close to where long term traders stake short positions carries higher risk."

 

and my response a bit later

 

"Just a quick note....and hopefully it won't be interpreted badly

 

"Institutional" participants have not been sellers up high....at least not recently....in fact they are more likely to add to existing positions and/or to move price even higher...as I recall Dalton covers this in some of his books on Market Profile...speculators and commercials (and the few retail traders left) are likely to have a different view and may indeed be sellers at what they perceive to be a market top...

 

Also it seems to me that in this market most of the big players prefer to stand off and wait for opportunity before acting...there isn't a way to "see" them until they decide to buy or sell. most of what we "see" is automated programs ghosting orders....placing and pulling them to create the illusion of liquidity at various levels...

 

Finally one should understand that we are late in the year and institutional particpants only get paid if they hit their profit targets...There certainly could be a news driven pullback however most of the institutions willl try to mark it up whenever possible....from here to the holidays..."

 

and here is Predictor's response..

 

"Steve... it takes many opinions to make a market. I don't know what you see but its for sure not what I see. lol... I never seen ghost orders, that's for sure."

 

For those interested, Soultrader before he sold this site had a nice video on file showing how orders are placed, and then pulled to create the illusion of liquidity in the market...

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

About "Real Time Calls"

 

I don't pretend to make "real time calls"....frankly I have tried and cannot make the calls AND trade profitably myself.....since the gentleman claims he CAN, then let him provide a link to C2.... SHOWING JUST THE LAST TWO WEEKS.....including the trade mentioned above...

 

In sum, Traderunner I agree with your basic comment

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Andi: Thanks for your take. I agree that using stops are risky. But I also feel that not using stops can be risky too. I really don't like your martingale system. Markets are non normally distributed and have fat tails. If you're not dealing with the proper type of time series process then adding to size to that extent could be disastrous. You make the point that it only takes a small move when you get to full size to get profitable but you also miss the point that only a small move against you will result in a much larger loss. You didn't discuss your sharpe ratio or max dd or calmar or any other stats. It doesn't allow me to put the 17% in context. Also let me say.. i wasn't just ripping you for denigrating your readers but bringing attention to a pattern-- a confidence trick pattern -- that is used over and over.... The pattern is to first call others names or try to make them look stupid then to offer your "marvelous insights"... Take a look at Steve here to understand how it works but for sure he's not the ONLY one and I'm not singling him out either. Its just a pattern.

 

Steve: What are you talking about? You don't make real time calls and yet you complain because my real-time calls aren't good enough. If anyone was watching the market when I made the calls they would have seen I got them out and in right at the tops and bottoms. I don't always/usually posts my exits in advance because I have real money on the line. I'll let you know that after I'm out.. thank you. As said, my real-time calls are not for people to be able to mimic me. They are for my benefit first.

 

As for C2, I said in the "in the past". I hid my C2 records when I went live because I can make a lot more trading then I was renting out my systems. My historical records still exist but are hidden.. no reason to allow others to data mine my trades. As for my real-time records, they exist too and no I'm not going to share them.

 

Also, what you said about commercials vs institutions was completely asinine... to me. I didn't call you out for it.

 

Also in regards to your "ghosting orders" comment... I wasn't even talking about the order book. It was completely off base and wrong on at least 2 levels.

 

Sorry, it is not my job to educate you. For the record, I'm placing you back on ignore. This time its not because you're just insulting me but because I've monitored your posts and I feel that you don't offer very much value.

Edited by Predictor

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OK, so no C2... ("I'm not going to share the records")

 

and a "real time call"....is whatever you want it to be.....cause "its for your benefit first".....

 

I think we are pretty clear on what you have to offer now....thanks

Edited by steve46

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Advising anyone not to use stops, is akin to advising someone not to use condoms. You might be in a position where its ok for YOU to be unprotected, but it's terrible advice to give out.

 

The only finite rule in trading is this, "cover your ass!"

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TradeRunner,

 

There are some differences in what I've did and that differentiate me from Steve and other vendors here and elsewhere. I wasn't just referring to Steve, either. First, I made real-time calls. I've been one of the few who did that. I also tracked/had an open book on my calls for about 2 years. Again, not something that you'll find other vendors doing. These were audited by the C2 third-party.

 

The main reason is that the administrators here have been nice to me but also I feel that it can enhance my performance.

 

Not all vendors are equal. You are what I would categories as a true vendor. You say it in your (original) blog:

 

About:

I'm an entrepreneur, programmer, interested in trading..

 

Entrepreneur first trader last (and just an interest in trading!). I'm not aware that Steve sells anything.

 

As to the site owner. They are entrepreneurs to and there job is to drive traffic to their site so that they can make money selling advertising. They don't need to judge the quality of the posters because newbies (majority of the traffic) can't make that value judgement.

 

The main reason your are here is to drive people to your new blog so that you can sell to them. You use language in your posts to convince potential customers that you are the real deal, not to make them more interesting.

 

TradeRunner

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TradeRunner

 

>>Not all vendors are equal.

 

You are absolutely wrong on your conclusions but absolutely right about the above. I've made live calls here, and I know (from my trading record) that I haven't had a losing day in over 10 days. The fact that nobody payed attention is not my problem.

 

It doesn't bother me that you have something against me. What bothers me is your (and others) poor logic and reasoning skills...

 

Try harder. Okay. No? Okay, let me help you.

 

>>Entrepreneur first trader last (and just an interest in trading!).

 

This bordering on trolling. I don't even know how to respond to that. But, I think my trading ability is represented in my live calls.

 

>>The main reason your are here is to drive people to your new blog so that you can >>sell to them. You use language in your posts to convince potential customers that >>you are the real deal, not to make them more interesting.

 

It is true that I want to be credited, that is for people who read my articles, to be able to find where they can read more about my ideas if they are interested. But, if you are suggesting that I only post here to drive traffic to my site then that is patently false.

 

If you look at my live calls, you won't see a tagline to my website in them. Wouldn't I put a tagline to my website if I were only interested in driving people to my website? As I said, my live calls are mostly shared to help my performance. I thought that was the purpose of that thread.. for traders to share stuff in real-time about the market.

Edited by Predictor

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T

This bordering on trolling. I don't even know how to respond to that. But, I think my trading ability is represented in my live calls.

 

As Steve has already pointed out they don't contain enough detail to make that judgement.

 

Your are a programming entrepreneur who sells trading systems. You have said it in your old blog. You don't need to add tag lines because a link is already built into your details window.

 

Why are you selling trading systems? If they worked then why not trade them yourself and cut out the hassle of having customers.

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TradeRunner

 

Now you've crossed the line into trolling. This will be my last response to you, and I hope it will be sufficient. It is clearly off topic to the thread subject matter.

 

The trading system that I'm selling is based on similar logic to the one that I rented at C2. At C2 that logic combined with my discretion returned 55% last year and my subscribers who took those signals made thousands of dollars (as verified live trades as recorded on c2). Since closing my C2 system, I've taken nearly every trade with adjustments using discretion and have had very good live results too. Of course, again I like to make adjustments but the backtests have also been strong.

 

>>Why are you selling trading systems? If they worked then why not trade them yourself >>and cut out the hassle of having customers.

 

TradeRunner, this is my entire point.. you don't show a flexibility in thinking nor strong reasoning skills. First, you have this idea that something works or doesn't work. Most things can work to some degree or another and not absolutely. First, yes I do trade that system, with my own adjustments, (it is actually a class of systems, I trade the variation that suites me) and have good results with it.

 

Let me help you...

 

The system trades one of the most liquid contracts in the world. I am not at all concerned that sharing it with a few small traders will hurt my edge. In fact, my main motivation for offering it was because it has been doing well, and I wanted to add more contracts to it.

 

I'm a small trader and having extra revenue streams can be very worthwhile. Even so, I've made more money from my recent trading then I've ever made from my blog and other products.

 

There are a lot of reasons traders would sell working systems. For example, they may have allocated the maximum amount of capital they desire to a given system.. if the system has more capacity then there is no cost in selling it. Again in my case, I am still looking at increasing capacity but am also looking to diversify.

 

As for the system, there is no way that I nor anyone else can know that any system will continue to work in the future. I believe that, in general, people get rich by offering tremendous value to OTHERS. My goal, in all of my products, is to offer that tremendous value.

 

TradeRunner.. now you are on ignore.

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I'm not selling a product, training people to trade or benefiting in any way whatsoever from readers of my blog or followers on twitter (aside from entertainment value). You'll notice I have no ads on my site like most blogs do, thus I receive no benefit from the traffic.

 

That's simply not true, Andi. You have a link from your blog to the Xber9Trends website who, I can't help but notice, operate a rather juicy affiliate program . . . If I start looking at my cookies, will I find that I was tracked to that site?

 

Would you care to retract your statement above, or maybe remove the direct link from your website?

 

BlueHorseshoe

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BlueHorseShoe,

 

Having a link on a blog does not mean you get paid to introduce. In the past, I have also referenced TradersAudio, MrTopStep, DrudgeReport, NoShoesRadio, CNBC and many others.... doesn't mean I'm selling them.

 

The link to that site was put there to explain the context of the material I was writing about and the link was copied from wherever I was at the time. The only cookies I'm aware of are double chocolate chip or oatmeal.

 

If you don't like the material I reference, don't use it.... but I don't benefit in any way. My blog is for entertainment only.

 

-- Andi

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You'll notice I have no ads on my site like most blogs do, thus I receive no benefit from the traffic.

 

The reason that you have no ads on your blog is because Wordpress don't allow them - you couldn't put them there even if you wanted to . . .

 

BlueHorseshoe

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Re: ads on the site..... hahaha... oh. I wasn't even aware of that (not that i wanted ads on the site anyway). but as you can probably tell, i know nothing about web development and the site was made by a friend of mine.. i just provided the content.

 

Anyway.. ads are for chumps. :)

 

-- Andi

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OK, so no C2... ("I'm not going to share the records")

 

and a "real time call"....is whatever you want it to be.....cause "its for your benefit first".....

 

I think we are pretty clear on what you have to offer now....thanks

 

I too have been puzzled by what he meant by trade calls since his "calls" on that thread seemed to be win/win calls, meaning If I am wrong I was right and if I am right I am right.

So "Taking a high risk short" means taking a short but I know it probably won't work. Of course, we don't know what was made or lost. So, it's not about the call, it's about being right.

 

I can assure anyone that taking the number of trade calls that appear to be taken will lead to lots and lots of losses with the current level of volume and volatility in ES, you have just a tiny chance of squeezing out money from ES when you make all those trades. The simplest trading guides suggest that you not trade when there is no volatility. No trade is a trade.

 

You kind of have to look at it as being the small stack at a poker table. Pick your spots carefully. You need to be extraordinarily lucky to win playing rags against players with large stacks. Generally, you will get killed.

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I too have been puzzled by what he meant by trade calls since his "calls" on that thread seemed to be win/win calls, meaning If I am wrong I was right and if I am right I am right.

So "Taking a high risk short" means taking a short but I know it probably won't work. Of course, we don't know what was made or lost. So, it's not about the call, it's about being right.

 

I can assure anyone that taking the number of trade calls that appear to be taken will lead to lots and lots of losses with the current level of volume and volatility in ES, you have just a tiny chance of squeezing out money from ES when you make all those trades. The simplest trading guides suggest that you not trade when there is no volatility. No trade is a trade.

 

You kind of have to look at it as being the small stack at a poker table. Pick your spots carefully. You need to be extraordinarily lucky to win playing rags against players with large stacks. Generally, you will get killed.

 

Yes, absolutely, I see it the same way....NQ is looking a little easier to trade these days, but thats another story...Careful, he'll put you "on ignore" (with the rest of us) soon.....ROFL....

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Having a link on a blog does not mean you get paid to introduce.

 

Nope, but it still amounts to advertising, whether or not you benefit from it. And we only have your word that it's not an affiliate link . . .

 

On a different note - the blog is really cool. I agree with you on stops for most types of trading, and have argued this point, combined with massive de-leveraging, here on the forum in the past (nobody ever wants to hear it though :) ). It would be great if you found the time to contribute here on TL from time to time.

 

The only cookies I'm aware of are double chocolate chip or oatmeal.

 

Here in the UK we have cookies with Smarties in - they're pretty nice!

 

BlueHorseshoe

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MightyMouse

 

>>I too have been puzzled by what he meant by trade calls since his "calls" on that >>thread seemed to be win/win calls, meaning If I am wrong I was right and if I am right >>I am right.

 

Patently false... There are many days where I state I hit my max loss limit. If you had actually read what I posted you'd know this. It is all in that thread. (edit)

 

>>So "Taking a high risk short" means taking a short but I know it probably won't work. >>Of course, we don't know what was made or lost. So, it's not about the call, it's about >>being right.

 

I'm providing REAL-TIME ANALYSIS. A high risk short does not mean taking a short that probably won't work. A high risk trade means taking a trade that probably will work or that offers some edge but that requires a larger stop or higher risk of being stopped out. Most trades are going to be risky to some degree.. many will be high risk.

 

>>I can assure anyone that taking the number of trade calls that appear to be taken will >>lead to lots and lots of losses with the current level of volume and volatility in ES, you >>have just a tiny chance of squeezing out money from ES when you make all those >>trades.

 

Well that's good to have your assurances over my monthly statements. What are you willing to put up (in risk) for assurances? I have statements for everyday that I made those calls.

 

It is no wonder there are so many failed traders. I provide real-time calls that are spot on for free nonetheless, a service that most would charge $$$'s for, and nobody likes it. I guess I could post cherry picked trades from the past or complain like everyone else why you can't make money in this market..

 

Now I remember, this type of negative feedback that I'm getting now is one of the main reasons that I started charging for my materials. Because this has happened before... I'd share my insights for free, stuff that I'd normally charge for, and I might make some minimal request for credit such as a link to my blog. I'd get all kinds of complaints from the free loaders.

 

Yet, no complaints from the people who buy my stuff! And they actually show some initative. and if you want to know a truth that's just if not more motivating then the money.

Edited by Predictor

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    • Date : 27th October 2021. Market Update – October 27 – Yields up,Robust USD. USD (USDIndex 93.84) – topped at 94 before retracing to 93.84 in Asia session.Wall Street rallied to more new highs on the USA500 and USA30, with the USA100 closing in on its peak, before gains faded. Solid earnings continued to underpin optimism, and stronger than expected confidence and housing data helped too. – rekindled Fed tightening fears. The long end of the market saw yields dip, overlooking the inflation jump as the longer term outlook is still benign. The 10-year Treasury yield has moved up 1.4 bp to 1.622%. Australia’s 10-year rate moved up and the 3-year jumped nearly 16 bp after core inflation came in higher than anticipated and reached a 6 year high in data for the third quarter. FT: Alphabet and Microsoft smash estimates with $110bn revenue haul (+33% from Q3 2020) – surge in cloud computing, and a strong rebound in digital advertising – all eyes on US open. Big misses from Robinhood, tanking its shares – closed at 40.09. Evergrande in focus again as authorities called on billionaire Hui Ka Yan to use his personal wealth to support China Evergrande Group. Chinese authorities called on companies to make “active preparations” to meet payments on offshore bonds. – sell-off in seven weeks for Chinese tech shares. German import price inflation hit 17.7% in September – The breakdown showed that energy prices remain the main driving factor, & that the shortage of natural gas and the spike in oil prices are not the only problems hitting supply chains, with supply shortages likely to keep prices elevated into next year. USOil steadied around $82 – $83. Gold dipped on robust USD, higher yields and ahead of central banks, at $1785. FX markets – EURUSD 1.1600, Cable bounced 1.3774, USDJPY – 114 from 114.30. Today – US Durables and BoC rate decision and conference. Earnings: Thermo Fisher, Coca-Cola, McDonald’s, Sony, ServiceNow, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Boeing, GlaxoSmithKline, ADP, GM, Old Dominion, CME, Edwards Lifesciences, Norfolk Southern, Twilio, Ford, General Dynamics, KLA Corp., eBay. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+40%) – spiked at 0.7535, faster MAs rising and RSI at 60. Fast MACD signal line & histogram keep rising, implying further rise in the short term. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date : 26th October 2021. Market Update – October 26 – Bonds and stocks rallied to start the week. USD (USDIndex 93.89) – first rate hike was pushed up to June, with two quarter point tightenings priced in for 2022. Wall Street firmed too on the back of strong earnings with more new record highs on the USA500 and the USA30. Also underpinning sentiment are expectations that the fiscal package will make it out of Congress. Fed Chair Powell warned that inflation could be higher and more persistent than previously expected. US Yields – 10yr backed up 0.9 bp overnight to 1.64%. Equities mixed – USA100 paced the advances though, climbing 0.9% amid support from the slip in yields – 4582. USA100 bounced to 15602. Facebook reported mixed third quarter earnings on Monday, slightly missing revenue estimates but continuing to grow its user base. FB +2%. TSLA (+12.6%) joins the$1 trillion market cap group after 11 yrs – took AMZN 22 yrs. It’s bigger than the combined value of the next 9 biggest car makers but it sells less than 1% of world car sales. Elon Mush added $36BN to his net wealth yesterday alone. UBS beats on revenue – but sales are mixed. USOil holds up again on supply concerns & trades close to 7-year highs at $82.50. Gold spiked at $1808. FX markets – EURUSD 1.1600, Cable bounced 1.3778, USDJPY – reversed from 113.97 highs to PP at 113.86. European Open The December 10-year Bund future is down -20 ticks at 168.45, underperforming versus US futures, although in cash markets the US 10-year rate is down from overnight highs, but still up 0.4 bp at 1.63%, as a 0.5% gain in the USA100 is leading US stock futures higher. GER30 and UK100 are posting gains of 0.2% and 0.1% at the moment, after a somewhat mixed session across Asia. Today – Upcoming central bank decisions will remain in focus, with ECB and BoJ set to announce their decisions on Thursday. Earnings: Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, Eli Lilly, Novartis, Twitter, General electric, UBS, Robinhood. Today’s economic calendar will be of interest as well, and features October consumer confidence and September new home sales. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.28%) Reversed overnight gains from 81.88 high tp currently 81.50 area. Faster MAs, RSI & Stochastic turned lower, while in contrast MACD signal line & histogram keep rising, implying to a potential limited pullback. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date : 25th October 2021. Market Update – October 25 – Big Earnings Week Ahead, USD Cooler. USD (USDIndex 93.50) cools a tad & again tests 4-wk low (93.44). PMIs biased to the upside as Powell talked taper but no rate rises yet, Democrats narrowed their differences on the $3.5b infra bill & Yellen talked new taxes. Yields hold up, Equities mixed Friday, FUTS down. Big week for Earnings – Oil up again on supply concerns, gold back to $1800. Evergrande – Restarted 10 building projects over weekend, announced move away from real estate towards EV production. US Yields (10yr closed higher at 1.665) & – now 1.6500% Equities mixed – USA500 -4.88 (-0.11%) at 4544 (NASDAQ –0.82%) – Big movers – SNAP -26.59% & INTEL -11.68%; Big Earnings misses, FB -5.05%, GOOGL & AMZN –3%, TSLA +1.75% – USA500.F back to 4540. Asian equities weaker. USOil up again on supply concerns & trades close to 7-year highs at $83.00 Gold very volatile Friday ($1782-$1813-$1793 on close) Back to pivot at $1800 now. FX markets – EURUSD 1.1650, Cable 1.3770, & USDJPY – (after a strong day on Friday (113.40 low) now at 113.60. Week Ahead Earnings from 5 x tech giants (FB today), plus major European Banks. Policy meetings from the ECB, BoJ & BOC, economic data includes US Q3 GDP & PCE. Plenty of CB speak, the UK Budget and month end too. European Open December 10-yr Bund future up 23 ticks at 168.51. DAX & FTSE 100 futures up 0.15% & 0.25% respectively. Inflation risks remained in focus as oil prices continue to climb higher while bottlenecks in supply chains lead to rising cost pressures. The combination already weighed on manufacturing PMIs last week & are likely to also depress the German Ifo confidence reading today ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting. Fed Chair Powell signalled on Friday that inflation could stay higher for longer & that the taper is coming. ECB by contrast has pushed decisions on PEPP & APP back to the December meeting, which means this week’s ECB will be watched mainly for signals from Lagarde at the press conference. TToday – German IFO and BoE’s Tenreyro. Earnings: Michelin, Facebook, Restaurant Brands. HSBC surprises with 74% rise in Q3 profit and $2bln buyback. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.45%) Recovering from a strong day run fro JPY last week. Up from 84.50 tlow on Friday to test 85.00 now. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram rising, RSI 51 & neutral. H1 ATR 0.189, Daily ATR 0.817. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date : 21st October 2021. Market Update – October 21 – Stocks & USD slip on big Earnings Day. USD (USDIndex 93.55) cools a tad and again tests 2-week low (93.47) Yields stronger again, Equities closed up, but FUTS are down (Nikkei -2% on stronger YEN and Yuan). Big day for Earnings – TESLA beat but revenue numbers disappointed some. Oil up on drawdown. Evergrande – Bad News $1.7bn sale of 51% of HK unit to Hopson OFF, $1.7bn sale of HK HQ OFF, $83.5m coupon default triggers tomorrow. Good News $260m bond coupon, extended by 3 mths US Yields (10yr closed higher at 1.63) & – now 1.6533% Equities moved ground higher USA500 +16 (+0.74%) at 4536 (NASDAQ –0.05%) – Big movers – Verizon +2.41% & ABBT +3.3% (PayPal – 4.91%) – USA500.F back to 4500. Asian equities weaker. New VIX contract at +1.49% at 19.60 USOil up on drawdown n strong demand at $82.00 after EIA inventories showed -400K vs build of 2.1m Gold holds at 4-day highs – $1785 FX markets – a recovering USD – EURUSD 1.1646, Cable down from 1.3830+ to 1.3800, & USDJPY – off 4-year highs and pivots at 114.00. European Open The December 10-year Bund future is down -16 ticks, US futures are also in the red. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are both down -0.45 and US futures are also in the red, with the NASDAQ underperforming again, after already closing slightly lower yesterday. Indices remain at high levels, but tapering concerns, the global energy rout and supply chain concerns are capping the outlook for global growth. Markets will continue to watch earnings reports and central bank comments, especially in the UK where officials clearly are laying the ground for an early lift off. Meanwhile the announcement of Weidmann’s departure has raised hopes that the ECB will push even more to circumvent the no-bailout clause permanently – after the end of PEPP, which already helped BTPs to outperform yesterday. Today – US Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Business Index, Existing Home Sales, EZ Consumer Confidence, EU Council Meeting, Fed’s Daly, Waller, RBA’s Lowe, Earnings: AT&T, Intel, American Airlines, Southwest Airlines, ABB, (bottleneck problems) Vivendi, Hermes, (beat) Pernod Ricard,(beat) Barclays, (Revenue big beat) Unilever (Sales miss). Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.50%) Rejection of 86.25 this morning as Yen lifts after a very weak October. Faster MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line dips and & histogram slips significantly lower, RSI 40.00 off OS level, H1 ATR 0.189, Daily ATR 0.817. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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