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TopstepTrader

Never Catch a Falling Knife

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I don't believe ValueCharts are supposed to make you trade against the trend... They say in almost all of their webinars to trade WITH the trend and that you can use ValueCharts to find strategic entry points in weakness etc. They are not designed to be used as a stand alone indicator, they are made to compliment your current trading strategy to help you lower risk exposure.... That is how I have been using them and it works really well. You are not supposed to arbitrarily buy or sell as soon as a value range is reached...

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@ZDO you have to smell it to work out it is simply a detrended price series? HUH? Every oscillator is a detrended price series. That's why they oscillate in a range and don't have trends.Hardly anything earth shattering there.

 

@Swingtrader Agree. And that was the exact light with which I looked at the indicator. Just like any indicator it is of no use by itself. If one uses oscillators, they need to be used in a larger context. The most obvious being with a trend. But even when doing that I found the Value Charts had just way too many flaws. Studying this indicator will highlight some of the floors to using detrended type indicators. Sound great in theory, but in practice not so good.

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@ZDO you have to smell it to work out it is simply a detrended price series? HUH? Every oscillator is a detrended price series. That's why they oscillate in a range and don't have trends.Hardly anything earth shattering there.

 

You prefer disagreeing AND being disagreed with ?

 

re: “Every oscillator is a detrended price series”

How do you spell detrend?

"VC is a detrend"

"Oscillators are detrends."

Neither of these statements are earth shakers… but they may clear some haze for someone... said it just in case...

 

Further, while every oscillator may mathematically be a detrended price series, only ‘quality’ detrends (of which VC can be configured to be a pretty good instance) should be included in the ‘class’ of detrends for practical use as detrends.

Many other oscillators should not to be included in the ‘class’. While they do keep their underlying mathematical / technical detrend worth, they are otherwise sufficiently distended - enough to produce info beyond what is available in a quality detrend… and to even “have” trends, etc, etc, etc…

 

... pitying the OP now... it has gone so off topic we've almost circled back around to on topic :)

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OP = Original Post

 

C = Coach (hold your cursor over the icon to see)

 

Hi Colonel,

"C" stands for Vendor

And if the moderator place a big C below your name, you are in trouble.

Everybody attacks you. Dont ask me why? We all have to make a living.And often the vendors info is useful.

regards

bobc

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The subject of ValueCharts kind of sidetracked this topic but if others can bear with me one more time - for those of us TradeStation users, if you didn't see/get the message center pop-up today that on Sept 19th 400pm ET they will have a free live webcast:

 

Mark Helweg is the founder of MicroQuantSM, a producer of market analysis tools. He has developed numerous quantitative financial models, authored the book Dynamic Trading Indicators and frequently lectures on trading technology and technical analysis as applied to the stock, futures and forex markets.

 

Learn about new precision entry and exit strategies using the next generation of technical analysis tools: the ValueCharts® indicator suite, the first algorithm to model price in terms of objective value. ValueCharts was awarded a patent by the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office in December 2008.

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Personally, I love absolute statements. Especially when it comes to things in the markets. I'm firmly in the camp that says "the only thing certain in the markets is change". Well, that and patterns. And range expansion days. and high volatility preceedinglow volatility. And orders congregating at daily/weekly highs. sometimes.... I think.

 

Well anyway, in the spirit of absolutes, I wanted to post up a few choice knifes I was happy to catch in my lap over the past few weeks....

 

These are jsut a couple that I had handy to upload. Actually, I do this on a regular basis (daily? weekly for sure) primarily because it pays pretty well. And i'm kinda sorta the "in your face market!" type guy. I like going against the crowd, and I like getting in 3 pips from the bottom, or 4 pips off the top.

 

Makes for some really sweet risk reward ratios. That's part of the reason I'm up about 10% for the month while my average risk per trade is about 0.10%-0.20% of my account size. I also like to jump in and out of trades a lot. Again.... I'm just a Contrarian kind of guy.

 

feel free to click on my signature, and you'll see myfxbook page, which I trade using real money (no demo nonsense), so anyone who may be skeptical can see for themselves.

 

So there. Proof (well, ok, not proof at all. But, some evidence no doubt) that falling knives can and often are wrapped in $100 bills! you just want to make sure you catch the ones wrapped in money, and not the ones that are just big and sharp and painful.

 

FTX

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AU-30min-pinbarss.thumb.jpg.72572baf48471ab8024eb21f33103e99.jpg

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Personally, I love absolute statements. Especially when it comes to things in the markets. I'm firmly in the camp that says "the only thing certain in the markets is change". Well, that and patterns. And range expansion days. and high volatility preceedinglow volatility. And orders congregating at daily/weekly highs. sometimes.... I think.

 

Well anyway, in the spirit of absolutes, I wanted to post up a few choice knifes I was happy to catch in my lap over the past few weeks....

 

These are jsut a couple that I had handy to upload. Actually, I do this on a regular basis (daily? weekly for sure) primarily because it pays pretty well. And i'm kinda sorta the "in your face market!" type guy. I like going against the crowd, and I like getting in 3 pips from the bottom, or 4 pips off the top.

 

Makes for some really sweet risk reward ratios. That's part of the reason I'm up about 10% for the month while my average risk per trade is about 0.10%-0.20% of my account size. I also like to jump in and out of trades a lot. Again.... I'm just a Contrarian kind of guy.

 

feel free to click on my signature, and you'll see myfxbook page, which I trade using real money (no demo nonsense), so anyone who may be skeptical can see for themselves.

 

So there. Proof (well, ok, not proof at all. But, some evidence no doubt) that falling knives can and often are wrapped in $100 bills! you just want to make sure you catch the ones wrapped in money, and not the ones that are just big and sharp and painful.

 

FTX

 

The areas you outline look like better places to exit than to enter.

 

Certainly you can capture hundreds, but from the looks of those charts, it seems like you may have left 1000's on the table to capture the hundred if you are only catching the knife. But, If it a skill you have developed, then so be it. I am not the fool to condemn someone for taking money from the market. My comments mainly reflect my inability to catch the knife.

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Im going to try posting a few chars.... Hope it comes out ok and you can see it

 

 

You cant see it so ill have to try another method of taking a screen capture

Edited by Colonel B
pic was too small

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Im going to try posting a few chars.... Hope it comes out ok and you can see it

 

 

You cant see it so ill have to try another method of taking a screen capture

 

Hi Colonel

Have you tried JING for screen capture?

I can even use it and I am BBC.......born before computers

Just Google it and download the software.... Its free

regards

bobc

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The areas you outline look like better places to exit than to enter.

 

Certainly you can capture hundreds, but from the looks of those charts, it seems like you may have left 1000's on the table to capture the hundred if you are only catching the knife. But, If it a skill you have developed, then so be it. I am not the fool to condemn someone for taking money from the market. My comments mainly reflect my inability to catch the knife.

 

Well Mighty, like everything else in trading... it's always a work in progress. I'm a kung fu ninja killa when it comes to turning knives into paychecks... but i'm a goldfish trying to run in cowboy boots when it comes to holding on for any significant swing or trend.

 

Actually, because I think you can understand "the secret"... I'll take a moment to explain the basics of it.

 

It's easier for me to use a real example that I've recently done than to try to explain in the abstract... so I'm gonna go into catching knives in the USD/CAD earlier this week....

 

 

The first step for me in being able to identify which knives are actually made of money is I usually need to have strong conviction in a longer term directional bias.

 

I can (and do) derive this from several different tools... most commonly the weekly and monthly candlestick charts. But in this case, it was a combination of a historical extreme in the COT report (large spec net long CAD at crazy record levels)...combined with recent price action, and also some upcoming news catalysts, and overall market sentiment regarding the CAD.

 

Lets start with the foundation of this bias: the COT and recent price action... I have included a picture that shows the COT imbalance under the CAD futures chart... it also has an in depth breakdown of my thought process and logic that helps me determine both direcational bias, as well as probable limitations to a falling knife (or in this case, a rising rocket. Whatever)

 

CHeck out that first picture, read the notes, and then continue reading down below, where my analysis continues after you've seen that first pic:

 

But this isn't all that I'm considering. One of the biggest supporting factors isn't even on the charts at all. I'm talking about market sentiment, and/or market tone. For many weeks this year, the mood of any news release or article relating to Canada and the CAD had a tone of "well, the canadian economy is one of the few brightspots of the G8 currencies!" However, over the last 2-3 months, the tone has shifted, even including the chairman of their central bank stating in a press conference that he is concerned about Canadas over priced housing and Canadas under qualified home buyer.... and that he would persue an "accomodating fiscal policy" to make sure it doesn't unravel too quickly.

 

Appearantly Canada housing and chinese public companies dodged the initial meltdown, but whatever. Anyway....

 

this change in tone has set the stage to make this week a very important week for CAD traders... because this week the bank of Canada was scheduled to announce their interest rate changes (if any)

 

Now, as it turns out the announcement was "no change"... but that didn't matter much to me last week. What DID matter last week was that CAD traders around the world had only 1 question "Is Bank of C going to lower their rate???" With that being the guiding sentiment.... I knew for a fact that the days leading up to the announcement would very likely be fraught with crazy jolting impulse moves down... because while it was possible that the Bank of C would not lower interest rates... Not even the craziest fool seriously was considering that the Bank of C would RAISE interest rates.

 

So last week, upcoming fundamental announcements would influence market participants in one of two ways: Either you did nothing, because you wanted to see what the announcement was... OR... you REDUCED YOUR LONG POSITION... just in case they lowered rates, and now your too big, without the needed liquidity to get out.

 

So I KNEW there was going to be MASSIVE pressure for a variety of reasons for the CAD to sell off. And with so many already holding long positions... there would be almost no pressure or catalyst that would work to kick off a buying spree.

 

I also knew about how far to expect such a sell off to go.... lets say...I could reasonably determine that 100 pips down in the USD/CAD spot would be about 1 standard deviation of my expecation for what a falling knife "would likely do"... Because heck, the world is too long already, and we are only about 200 pips from the recent high, and no big trader worth their salt isn't going to use any and every pullback they can get to reduce their long exposure.

 

OK. Now we have COT analysis that essentially gives us perspective on the global supply/demand liquidity imbalance.... we also have knowledge of how large institutions operate, and what we can reasonably expect from them in terms of where they will get involved to reposition their trades...etc. We also know what fundamental factors are likely to influence decision making... and more importantly, we can make a pretty good determination of how Large speculators will FEEL regarding the upcoming fundamental factors!! (ie: very worried that they will be too long, in a market that has no liquidity for longs to exit)

 

I'll tell you one thing for certain. Coming into this weeks Bank of Canada rate announcement... NO ONE was talking "lets get long the CAD, because we could see an increase of interest rates!!"

 

So... with all this in our favor that we can reasonably deduce from our observations of price, market tone, upcoming possible catalysts, a knowledge of how large speculators like to get into and out of positions, and the clear imbalance of longs/shorts in a market that really won't have the liquidity for longs to cover...

 

It's really not that risky catching a falling knife. I mean... come on. Yes, the USD/CAD spot market COULD fall 500 pips in 3 days. Because every hedge fund manager is about to wake up tomorrow thinking "Gee... I have the largest long position in the CAD that I've ever had in the history of my trading. I know what I'll do... I'm gonna go ahead and DOUBLE DOWN on that long position baby!!!"

 

C'mon. It's not realistic, and it' not likley. And besides, that what bet sizing, and stops are for.

 

But, The very important thing to understand is that a falling knife in say, the USD/CAD spot market last week, and also Sunday/Monday of this week... would have been unlike ANY OTHER FALLING KNIFE in any other market at this moment in time.

 

And it's this type of thinking, using logical deductive and inductive reasoning that allow me to see the forces behind the markets... and therefore, I could recognize a falling knife in the USD/CAD spot was not something I needed to fear, but rather a special, high probability opportunity to get long the USD, short the CAD, and hold on for a ripping ride as the "Great USD/CAD short squeeze of 2012" kicked off.

 

Now you see how I develop my bias, and how I have the conviction to stick with it. At least in this example. (rarely the patience, but often the conviction... ironic, yes)

 

Now, if you want to see how I look at charts to determine how I will enter, how I will exit, and what I look for, and what I factor in to determine the optimal entry and exit points, I suggest you check out the 3 pictures, and the notes, that I included in the following post:

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/market-analysis/13737-watch-typical-day-real-day-trader-47.html#post164343

 

So, in summary, this post here should give you an idea of how I determine if a falling knife is actually a super sale on the next best thing, or whether it's just a dog with too many fleas and is best left for someone else to grab. Think of this post as my "macro/bigger picture" approach and determination.

 

The link I just gave will give you a better idea of how exactly I pinpoint the "micro level / execution / triggering the trade" aspect.

 

Put the "macro" view with the "micro" view and you have the two fundamental components to my own personal trading methodology. It may be a lot of work and variables to consider, but hey, it beats the snot out of a moving average cross over system any day!

 

Phew... that was a lot of thought for me Mighty... I hope you find it at least interesting!

 

The revelation that I hope to impart here is that catching a falling knife is NOT a skill worth spending time developing. What IS worth spending time developing is the ability to know if a falling knife is actually a rare fire sale on something of significant value... or if it's just a basic, run-of-the-mill falling knife. Just a knife? follow the trend, or stay out. Actually something more than meets the eye? Worth an F'ing fortune, because it can provide 5:1, 10:1, even 20:1 reward to risk ratios, if you develop the skill fully. (best I ever did was a 320 pip target with an initial stop of 25 pips, risking 0.40% on the trade)

 

Anyway, would love to hear your feedback or thoughts on this process of mine... and most of all, hope you have a slightly different perspective on the red waterfall we traders like to call "a falling knife"

 

FTX

how-to-catch-a-knive-of-money-USD-CAD-part1.thumb.jpg.ec425f7bf7858637322db3782f7298e3.jpg

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As a follow up the my post above... I've done a fairly detailed analysis on a few different counter trend trading opportunities... and I believe all but one pretty much worked out...

 

Anyway, here is a post I made in my thread that gives the "cliff notes" version, for anyone who is interested in seeing other examples besides the USD/CAD I discussed already...

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/market-analysis/13737-watch-typical-day-real-day-trader-50.html#post164600

 

FTX

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FTX,

 

Your post was certainly lengthy.

 

I appreciate your effort.

 

I would be just as likely to add to a losing position as I would to attempting to catch the knife.

 

Again, I can't comment on something that I won't do and I do not think that just because I won't do it, that it can't be done.

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FTX,

 

Your post was certainly lengthy.

 

I appreciate your effort.

 

I would be just as likely to add to a losing position as I would to attempting to catch the knife.

 

Again, I can't comment on something that I won't do and I do not think that just because I won't do it, that it can't be done.

 

Ahh well, fair enough. I understand where your coming from. Well, maybe someone else can benefit from the explanation then.... if only by learning what NOT to do...lol.

 

FTX

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The areas you outline look like better places to exit than to enter.

 

Certainly you can capture hundreds, but from the looks of those charts, it seems like you may have left 1000's on the table to capture the hundred if you are only catching the knife. But, If it a skill you have developed, then so be it. I am not the fool to condemn someone for taking money from the market. My comments mainly reflect my inability to catch the knife.

 

Hi MM,

 

Your recent short position described in the Euro thread was interesting for me because your exit looked like a short entry to me. The market looked short term overbought in a long term downtrend. In this instance I was wrong, or would have been stpped out as the market continued to rally. Over the long-run, however, my approach would turn a profit. I expect yours would also. Which approach is best?

 

In the future, who knows?

 

In the past, it's market dependent, in my opinion.

 

In the Euro you can find a good risk:reward ratio entry, minimize risk, and let profits run. But letting profits run in a market that doesn't run is unlikely to be successful. In the Euro you're more likely to get a decent entry trading in the direction of a thrust in the market because a continuation is highly likely; in the ES, which is mean-reverting, price will probably go in the opposite direction to the one in which it is currently going, so buying when price is falling is often a better entry than buying after an up-thrust.

 

In summary then, I think it's all market dependent. In some markets catching a falling knife is a good idea, in others you want to see the knife blunt and bounce from the table-top before entering.

 

BlueHorseshoe

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Hi MM,

 

Your recent short position described in the Euro thread was interesting for me because your exit looked like a short entry to me. The market looked short term overbought in a long term downtrend. In this instance I was wrong, or would have been stopped out as the market continued to rally. Over the long-run, however, my approach would turn a profit. I expect yours would also. Which approach is best?

 

I would guess that you were probably right that it was a short entry on multiple time frames, even though it continued to rise into the 30's. Just because it didn't work that time doesn't mean it won't work.

 

Price hit my hard stop so I had no choice. In the long run, my action on that particular trade salvaged profits since it would have continued higher to my BE and worse. Other times when I have engaged in such an exit I have wasted profits.

 

If it were always crystal clear, I would probably find something else to do.

 

 

In the future, who knows?

 

In the past, it's market dependent, in my opinion.

 

In the Euro you can find a good risk:reward ratio entry, minimize risk, and let profits run. But letting profits run in a market that doesn't run is unlikely to be successful. In the Euro you're more likely to get a decent entry trading in the direction of a thrust in the market because a continuation is highly likely; in the ES, which is mean-reverting, price will probably go in the opposite direction to the one in which it is currently going, so buying when price is falling is often a better entry than buying after an up-thrust.

 

In summary then, I think it's all market dependent. In some markets catching a falling knife is a good idea, in others you want to see the knife blunt and bounce from the table-top before entering.

 

BlueHorseshoe

 

I agree that it is market dependent and will add that it is also timeframe dependent. Es exhibits trends/moves in higher/wider time frames. The shorter time frames and certainly during the RTH, ES is chronically mean reverting.

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This was an easy trade even for a dipstick like me. I have marked up the OP's chart. Why make it hard? Price nearing end of day been in a range for quite some time. Odds donot favor a breakout before close. Range behaviour is race to the top..reverse race back down and race to the bottom..repeat.....ad nauseum until a B.O. succeeds. The idea is go long at bottom of range. Short at top. 70% to 80% of B.O. fail. They may break above or below the lines but usually price get pulled right back into the range. This was few years back so i have no idea what actually happened but i would guess price went up to at least or near my x on the chart and maybe to the top of the range before reversing again. The tactic is go long somewhere in the circle area on the chart. Also, any dipstick can see that the red bar in the circle showed buying pressure coming in at the close. Unless, the dipstick has chicken sh$t in his/her eyes. What else does one need? Price in a range..Buying pressure at the bottom. Nearing end of day.

IMG_3153.thumb.jpg.5a56eef9f0bddbdaeeee16dd82b5dee9.jpg

Edited by Patuca

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