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Colonel B

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    United States
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    Day Trader

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    The ones that pay
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  • Trading Platform
    Market Delta for charts and Ninja for exicutions
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  1. You are right... You are right too... Fundamentals do drive markets just not the ones you think. First off we are traders and traders move markets. Not the supply of lumber. Think about it. Traders move markets not the lumber itself. Its better and easier to follow traders then it is to follow the supply of something. Unless you are following the supply of traders. This seems simple but it is not. But there are things that you can consider no matter what. The first thing is that each and every buyer is a seller and every seller is a buyer. This is a fundamental that is constant as a trader. No matter what any other indicator or corollary is doing every buyer is a seller and ever seller is a buyer. So really the only fundamental you need to follow is the traders themselves. The corollaries help to tell you where traders may or may not be wrong. Knowing how the market really works and how traders trade and how traders feel and think is more valuable then any lead on some news or something like that. Why? Because understanding where traders may or may not be wrong is longer term then news. Reading pages and pages of how an auction works is silly. The fact is that its not an auction in the traditional sense. Its a 2 directional auction at the least. In a regular auction the auction is over once the item is sold to the highest bidder. Its not that way in the futures or stock market. In fact this is realized as soon as someone understands that buyers are sellers and sellers are buyers.
  2. Well I meant easy and simple in the context of the post that I was referencing. I agree that trading in general isn't simple or easy. I know there are markets that hold structure better then others thus giving the appearance of easier. An example of this is the treasuries vs the ES. The ES commonly and frequently will go past its stop out just to go in the intended direction after it throws some traders out. This action could be as little as 1-2 ticks. The reason for this is fact that the ES has more short term traders and less paper. When you have mostly retail traders all trying to do the same thing in the same spot it causes chop. You have less of that in the treasuries. Retail avoids the treasuries for many reasons. If you are using sound market principals then this makes certain markets easier to trade ahead of time. Not trading in itself. I also agree that trading the treasuries is easier because of the larger tick and less leverage.
  3. It very well can. But here is the thing. Its not a situation where the treasuries lead the NQ every time or the NQ leads the treasuries. There are times where they don't move in sync. Let me throw out a few examples. Say the treasuries are really weak for the day or overnight. Could be for any number of reasons. This could signal a strong open for the NQ. Now on the other had I have seen it where the FED comes out with something and both go up at the same time. In both of these situations I don't fade. But here it the useful information. When the NQ makes higher highs the treasuries should make lower lows. If the NQ makes higher highs or new highs and the either of the treasuries doesn't then that could be a tell on what is going to happen next. This happens in the ES and NQ as well. The NQ and the ES should move in sync. So if the ES makes new lows the NQ should as well. If it one does and the other doesn't then that is a huge clue. Its easier to see these things happen in real time ironically. That is a good question. There is no set time. It all depends on the tempo of the day. If its a faster tempo then it should be faster. If its a day like yesterday (Friday before a holiday) then it could be as long as 30 minutes to an hour.
  4. What is a perfect system? Ok My experience is all that stuff you just mentioned doesn't work. It is probably the most inefficient way to trade or even look at markets. I am not saying it is not logical. However I bet everything you are using is lagging. You will always be at least 2 steps behind. Because of this you will have more risk per trade. You will have larger draw downs. And you want to have a computer trade for you? /facepalm.... Everything you mentioned so far is retail type of thinking. All we need to do is throw in a few popular catch phrases and we have ourselves a common trading room. My guess is that you are trolling. But if you are not... The problem with computers is that markets are dominated by people. Its mostly people that trade markets. I know its not popular what I am saying. However computers don't act like people. They don't think like people. And most importantly they don't trade like people. So far as I know man has not found a way to teach a computer to feel. Computers work well when you get to the point where you are missing more good trades then you take bad trades. And when you get to that point then you are still better hiring someone to take the trades you are missing. The reason is that computers don't trade like humans. Analyzing 50 or more clues in your situation wont help you. Just from what you presented so far it looks like you don't know what to look for. Looking at 50 random things might help. Might not. Seems like shooting in the dark. Here are some ideas. Can you do what you do in Forex in the Future market? Do you need the large stop out? Are you using correlated markets? Are you looking at the bid/ask? Can you really say you have an advantage over others in the markets you attempt to trade?
  5. I would argue that it was the simplest but not the easiest. I think the Treasuries are easier. You couple what you have here and tie it in with the ES and then tie that into the Treasuries. Of course its a bit more complicated but not in principle. You are just doing what you are doing but just 4 times as much. However the payoff is 30 bucks a tick. So the payoff isn't 4 times as much however the amount you lose in inefficiency you gain in flexibility. Instead of looking and only limiting yourself to trading 1 market you now have access to 4-5 markets. I have no less then 4 DOMs open at any given time. I have access and the ability to trade all 4 however in reality I only trade 1 or 2. It will be interesting to see a good discussion on correlated markets.
  6. This is fundamentally FALSE. The stock market is a market. The reason why prices go up on any stock is because buyers are willing to pay higher prices. Simple as that. Someone has to sell the stock to a buyer. So if a stock price has gone up for the last 25 years it is only because buyers chose to buy higher each year. Why would buyers collectively do this? For many reasons. It could be because they think that the company is undervalued. Or they perceive that the company will create or develop a new idea or technology. Companies simply do not reward you for staying with a company for many years through the payout of an increase in what you paid for the stock. No they reward you with dividends. Other buyers reward you not companies. A company is only worth what someone will pay for it. The price of a stock is not directly tied to the value of the company either. It could be but only if buyers collectively use that. I would like to point out that at the peak of the last financial crisis there were many banks that suffered a loss on their stock price. The reason for it was the fact that they were banks and a majority of banks had problems. The entire financial sector suffered regardless if the company was or ever was involved with any sort of mortgage loans. This is similar to the housing market. If you have the nicest house on the street and a few houses on your block or in your area are run down then it diminishes the value of your house. Here is an example of your fallacy. If you would of bought 10 contracts of ES a few years ago when it was at 700 and then sold it today at 1517 you would be up. So based on your example the ES generated wealth. And this is based on a supposed index of more then 1 company. Given the example so far the ES seems to be a better form of generating wealth. Also you can short sell stock. This in effect is similar to a futures trade in that you are not required to "own" something before selling it.
  7. Its going to be impossible to get a reasonable magazine ban now. I can go make 20 of them the day after the ban and say they are grandfathered or 20 a month from now. If they don't allow 30 round mags and seize all of them then I can still make 20 of them tomorrow. Or make them at a future point in time. Now that you can manufacture mags from a suitcase what prevents some one from making a 60 round mag? So the point is that if someone wanted to rob a bank or commit some nefarious act. They could just make the mags the night before the crime. Instead of having to go through all the trouble of finding the mags and buying them. Same goes for AR lowers. I wonder how long it would take to make a complete AR or AK variant minus the barrel and gas tubes. I mean really the only things that you would need are a barrel, gas tube, springs, and the bolt.
  8. Has anyone mentioned the printers yet? I was just wondering because I am not going to go through 900 some posts of bickering. But yea what about the printers. What do you guys think about that? I can get the codes if you want. I really think because of this, the debate is over. There is no way to control it now no matter how hard you try. My opinion is that the Dems get shellacked in the next election. Now with the printers it could be a big deal even in Europe. There is no chance or hope for gun control at this point.
  9. This thread should be renamed "The RETAIL Trader Strategy for Futures Trading." Because that is what it is.
  10. Oh that is too bad. I thought you might of been a trader. Oh well. Yea good luck with finding a broker. Good brokers don't play games. Maybe try that app on Facebook. Its called "Hotshot Trader." Or you can try following that scam artist FT71. He plays games. Or maybe just bag trading games and go get an Xbox 360 if you don't have one already. Lots of games on that thing. Have Fun!!!!
  11. How do you double thumbs this? Totally agree
  12. I use Mirus. They are good. However they have a recent policy that is something like if you don't make 10 or 25 round turns a month then you are charged 25 bucks. That isn't a problem with me but it could be for someone who is unsure or just starting out and might need more then 90 days of market data. Figured I would throw that out there. Again I do use them.
  13. All IBs are pretty much the same. And don't confuse Interactive Brokers the brand with Interactive Brokers the type of brokers. For example Mirus and Infinity are both IBs/ Interactive Brokers. Are you a member? That makes a difference. Are you a big size trader? That makes a difference too. A good broker for me may not be the a good broker for you. If you are a small trader with a small account and are not a member then chances are there will be very little difference in IBs. Interactive Brokers actually being the worst broker of all the interactive brokers.
  14. ???? MENTOR noun 1. a wise and trusted counselor or teacher. 2. an influential senior sponsor or supporter. verb (used without object) 3. to act as a mentor: She spent years mentoring to junior employees. verb (used with object) 4. to act as a mentor to: The brash young executive did not wish to be mentored by anyone. Its impossible to have a mentor that is dead. A person can not counsel you from the dead. It is also impossible to support from the grave as well. I can post more definitions if you need them. They will all support the fact that no one can counsel from the grave. Unless you are using a Ouija board for your trading.
  15. That is my experience. I wish I would of read this instead of writing a novel earlier.
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