Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Jack Francisco

Luck- is It a Supportive Factor to Everyday Trading?

Recommended Posts

I got lucky recently. I took a trade on the 6E when my entry conditions hadn't been fully met. The trade went against me immediately. I then tried to avoid the loss. I averaged down by adding another contract. That didn't work. I moved my stop several times. That didn't work either. The potential loss kept getting bigger. Price finally turned and came back to my original stop loss level. I gladly closed the position. I have since rewritten my trading plan. I have included a notation to "Never move stops or average down. Take the loss. Wait for a new opportunity."

 

It may sound odd but, for most traders, getting out of those meatgrinders unscathed is the worst thing that can happen. It's almost guaranteed that they will do it again. For some, it will become a habit. Traders tend to go bonehead and only remember the one time it worked. Panic and desperation can sure turn some traders into Larry, Curly or Moe in a hurry.

 

I'm relieved that it sounds like you didn't enjoy the ride and won't be considering any encores. Good for you...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
A lot happens in one's life that's about more than one's skills. There's luck involved.

 

So the lesson is...don't get too exuberant when you do well, and don't get too depressed when you don't.

 

Obviously this isn't meant to be taken to extremes and used as some sort of excuse. After all, it's been said that luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.

 

It's also been said that bad luck is when Opportunity knocks so hard that you need Preparation H.....ok, sorry...couldn't resist...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
chances of making 10 mistakes to blow your account and making 10 profitable trades to double your account are equal in theory...but you see more losers than winners :roll eyes:

 

Unfortunately this isn't quite true. If you have a 'coin-flip' entry system and use an identical stop-loss and profit target, given an even distribution of wins and losses over time, a trader will still wipe out their account. This is due to factors like slippage, spread, commissions, and account size. All things being truly equal, it's a mathematical certainty.

 

The classic explanation of this is given in Thorp's 'Beat the Dealer' with a discussion of red and black in a casino, where the house is still able to maintain an edge by imposing limits.

 

Having said all that, one of my favourite tests is to see whether a strategy is profitable when traded with an identical stop and target - it tells me something about whether the entry in isolation is better than a coin flip.

 

Hope that's helpful and, erm . . . good luck!

 

BlueHorseshoe

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Any vendors reading?

 

There's a fantastic product idea here in MM's post - Ostomy Pouches. You could do them in two sizes - Regular Cash Session capacity and Globex Maxi-Size. Print some candlesticks and your logo on the side, you'll make fortunes . . .

 

:)

 

BlueHorseshoe

 

I have also had trades that were set, meaning my stop is at be looking to add and I went to be to come back to a 200 tick move in oil. About 3 minutes time. No joke. I suspect I would have added so that pee cost me money too, but that was a welcome surprise. Going without coffee is just not an option either.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I have also had trades that were set, meaning my stop is at be looking to add and I went to be to come back to a 200 tick move in oil. About 3 minutes time. No joke. I suspect I would have added so that pee cost me money too, but that was a welcome surprise. Going without coffee is just not an option either.

 

Trading oil and peeing at the same time - I guess that's why they call it "Crude"?

 

By the way, can you get back to me with some info on how many litres you normally urinate in a cash session - I've got a deal cooking on the colostomy bags with the boys over at TTM, and they're real sticklers for detail . . .

 

Thanks,

 

BlueHorseshoe

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I got lucky recently. I took a trade on the 6E when my entry conditions hadn't been fully met. The trade went against me immediately. I then tried to avoid the loss. I averaged down by adding another contract. That didn't work. I moved my stop several times. That didn't work either. The potential loss kept getting bigger. Price finally turned and came back to my original stop loss level. I gladly closed the position. I have since rewritten my trading plan. I have included a notation to "Never move stops or average down. Take the loss. Wait for a new opportunity."

 

Classic problem that some traders face of not following their original rules. Nothing wrong with adjusting and tweaking your system, but it is the way you went about it. You made numerous changes on the fly without any prior testing. Then you make a hard rule never to average down or move stops. Had you used a tool to work out your averaging ahead of time, you would have been prepared for the drawdown and been able to pick out profit targets more objectively. Choosing a new and untested method caused you to panic when immediate expected gains were not achieved. Is it fair to write off the entire method due to fear instead of re-attempting the method with a more thorough approach?

 

If your position came back to your original stop loss level, then you should have either broke even, or suffered a smaller loss because of the averaged total position.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

maybe Rocketdog has supplied an answer of sorts.......

 

good luck happens when you dont develop and then practice bad habits.

good luck happens you continue the things that you know do work and stop doing the things you know dont work

bad luck is the inverse.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Cutting myself loose from this post... cutting out the worthless emails from my life... get a grip guys... kiss and make up.

 

Yeah, I'm getting pretty sick of the filthy rhetoric here too. Absolutely no need for it whatsoever.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Classic problem that some traders face of not following their original rules. Nothing wrong with adjusting and tweaking your system, but it is the way you went about it. You made numerous changes on the fly without any prior testing. Then you make a hard rule never to average down or move stops. Had you used a tool to work out your averaging ahead of time, you would have been prepared for the drawdown and been able to pick out profit targets more objectively. Choosing a new and untested method caused you to panic when immediate expected gains were not achieved. Is it fair to write off the entire method due to fear instead of re-attempting the method with a more thorough approach?

 

If your position came back to your original stop loss level, then you should have either broke even, or suffered a smaller loss because of the averaged total position.

 

The fact that I averaged down probably minimised my losses but in hindsight it would have been far less stressful to take the initial loss and move on. I got into trouble by not following my trading plan. I 'jumped the gun', averaged own, widened my stop and still lost money. Lesson learned.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Unfortunately this isn't quite true. If you have a 'coin-flip' entry system and use an identical stop-loss and profit target, given an even distribution of wins and losses over time, a trader will still wipe out their account. This is due to factors like slippage, spread, commissions, and account size. All things being truly equal, it's a mathematical certainty...

 

I was trying to say the same thing...the number of losers are more than number of winners even though the math says the chances are equal...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I was trying to say the same thing...the number of losers are more than number of winners even though the math says the chances are equal...

 

I'd misunderstood you, then. I think that there are probably other reasons why many traders go broke besides, including, obviously, strategies with negative expectancies. I also think that there is a reason why many traders trading strategies with neutral expectancies go broke faster than they would through commissions, slippage, etc alone, but I don't know that I can be bothered trying to formulate why I think this is.

 

BlueHorseshoe

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Wow!, It looks like MMS stopped the pissing contest before it got out of hand.

 

Probably best. My Dad had a colostomy bag for a few years and died from it. I get a bit irate when someone jokes about it. Nobody cares, I know, but I feel better for at least speaking out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Probably best. My Dad had a colostomy bag for a few years and died from it. I get a bit irate when someone jokes about it. Nobody cares, I know, but I feel better for at least speaking out.

 

Roger,

 

My sincere apologies for any personal offence the topic of my jokes may have caused - the intended target was not those afflicted with illness.

 

Take care,

 

BlueHorseshoe

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Roger,

 

My sincere apologies for any personal offence the topic of my jokes may have caused - the intended target was not those afflicted with illness.

 

Take care,

 

BlueHorseshoe

 

If the community is going to need to be sensitive to everyone, then we will certainly have to rule out ugly jokes as well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Put it another way, put your stop 2 ticks or 10 ticks. It'll get hit either way.

 

It's not unlucky, it's facilitation of trade, just the market going where the people want to trade, well they don't want to trade, since they lose, but where they will trade.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If the community is going to need to be sensitive to everyone, then we will certainly have to rule out ugly jokes as well.

 

This is off topic and will get deleted...so be it. I like a good joke as much as anyone. It's just the really offensive ones that hurt others that I can't stand. Crohn's disease is a terrible thing to watch someone you love suffer with and die from. I should have just left this thread and said nothing. I hate conflict almost as much as hurtful jokes. I just wish MMS had seen fit to remove the comments that I (and apparently one other) found offensive, but he chose not to. Oh well...if I don't like them then it's my problem, right?

 

Don't expect sensitivity to take root in TL, MM. It won't. But I pray that the insensitivity at least slows down and I pray also that karma does not exist. I'm done on this topic and on this thread.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
This is off topic and will get deleted...so be it. I like a good joke as much as anyone. It's just the really offensive ones that hurt others that I can't stand. Crohn's disease is a terrible thing to watch someone you love suffer with and die from. I should have just left this thread and said nothing. I hate conflict almost as much as hurtful jokes. I just wish MMS had seen fit to remove the comments that I (and apparently one other) found offensive, but he chose not to. Oh well...if I don't like them then it's my problem, right?

 

Don't expect sensitivity to take root in TL, MM. It won't. But I pray that the insensitivity at least slows down and I pray also that karma does not exist. I'm done on this topic and on this thread.

 

Roger,

 

Frequently comedy borders on the inappropriate. I think it might be best to not internalize the comments that happen here. It would be one thing if Blue and others knew of your sensitivity to your dad's illness and and then made the comment. I am confident that is not the case. He was having fun with the comment I made for the entertainment of those of us who still laugh at adolescent humor. If you know that he is British and then narrate his comments in your mind with a British accent, his comments were even funnier. I will grant you that it is only funny if you have not dealt with it.

 

MM

 

.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Roger,

 

Frequently comedy borders on the inappropriate. I think it might be best to not internalize the comments that happen here. It would be one thing if Blue and others knew of your sensitivity to your dad's illness and and then made the comment. I am confident that is not the case. He was having fun with the comment I made for the entertainment of those of us who still laugh at adolescent humor. If you know that he is British and then narrate his comments in your mind with a British accent, his comments were even funnier. I will grant you that it is only funny if you have not dealt with it.

 

MM

 

.

 

I'm sure BH is a great guy and inappropriate humor is my middle name. When I was a radio announcer, I got in trouble at least twice a week....can't believe some of the things I said.

 

BH will continue his "bag" humor, I'm sure, but I never thought for a second that his references were directed at me or my family personally. Was never an issue.

 

I've had several Brits in my group over the years and the goofy things they come up with...and with that accent...geez, funny stuff.

 

Anyway, let's move on and get back on topic...trading.

 

Thanks for the insight, MM

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I've never met a profitable trader that relied (dependent upon) on luck to be consistently profitable. Yet, every profitable trader will have "some" lucky trades but not of any statistical significance especially when they will have nearly just as many "unlucky" trades.

 

Early today I had one "unlucky" trade (resulted in a loss) due to a trade execution error and then several hours later I had a "lucky" trade (resulted in a profit) via the exact same trade execution error.

Luck is an important factor that every trader should take into consideration.

Trader must have a good analytical skill or mind in order to make consistently profitable. Don't think today I am lucky and i am going to make huge profit in trading. Absolutely Wrong.

It's better to take a loss, being prudent and disciplined in your trading, rather than breaking your rules and coming out with a winner.

:cool:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 11th July 2025.   Demand For Gold Rises As Trump Announces Tariffs!   Gold prices rose significantly throughout the week as investors took advantage of the 2.50% lower entry level. Investors also return to the safe-haven asset as the US trade policy continues to escalate. As a result, investors are taking a more dovish tone. The ‘risk-off’ appetite is also something which can be seen within the stock market. The NASDAQ on Thursday took a 0.90% dive within only 30 minutes.   Trade Tensions Escalate President Trump has been teasing with new tariffs throughout the week. However, the tariffs were confirmed on Thursday. A 35% tariff on Canadian imports starting August 1st, along with 50% tariffs on copper and goods from Brazil. Some experts are advising that Brazil has been specifically targeted due to its association with the BRICS.   However, the President has not directly associated the tariffs with BRICS yet. According to President Trump, Brazil is targeting US technology companies and carrying out a ‘witch hunt’against former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, a close ally who is currently facing prosecution for allegedly attempting to overturn the 2022 Brazilian election.   Although Brazil is one of the largest and fastest-growing economies in the Americas, it is not the main concern for investors. Investors are more concerned about Tariffs on Canada. The White House said it will impose a 35% tariff on Canadian imports, effective August 1st, raised from the earlier 25% rate. This covers most goods, with exceptions under USMCA and exemptions for Canadian companies producing within the US.   It is also vital for investors to note that Canada is among the US;’s top 3 trading partners. The increase was justified by Trump citing issues like the trade deficit, Canada’s handling of fentanyl trafficking, and perceived unfair trade practices.   The President is also threatening new measures against the EU. These moves caused US and European stock futures to fall nearly 1%, while the Dollar rose and commodity prices saw small gains. However, the main benefactor was Silver and Gold, which are the two best-performing metals of the day.   How Will The Fed Impact Gold? The FOMC indicated that the number of members warming up to the idea of interest rate cuts is increasing. If the Fed takes a dovish tone, the price of Gold may further rise. In the meantime, the President pushing for a 3% rate cut sparked talk of a more dovish Fed nominee next year and raised worries about future inflation.   Meanwhile, jobless claims dropped for the fourth straight week, coming in better than expected and supporting the view that the labour market remains strong after last week’s solid payroll report. Markets still expect two rate cuts this year, but rate futures show most investors see no change at the next Fed meeting. Gold is expected to finish the week mostly flat.       Gold 15-Minute Chart     If the price of Gold increases above $3,337.50, buy signals are likely to materialise again. However, the price is currently retracing, meaning traders are likely to wait for regained momentum before entering further buy trades. According to HSBC, they expect an average price of $3,215 in 2025 (up from $3,015) and $3,125 in 2026, with projections showing a volatile range between $3,100 and $3,600   Key Takeaway Points: Gold Rises on Safe-Haven Demand. Gold gained as investors reacted to rising trade tensions and market volatility. Canada Tariffs Spark Concern. A 35% tariff on Canadian imports drew attention due to Canada’s key trade role. Fed Dovish Shift Supports Gold. Growing expectations of rate cuts and Trump’s push for a 3% cut boosted the gold outlook. Gold Eyes Breakout Above $3,337.5. Price is consolidating; a move above $3,337.50 could trigger new buy signals. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Back in the early 2000s, Netflix mailed DVDs to subscribers.   It wasn’t sexy—but it was smart. No late fees. No driving to Blockbuster.   People subscribed because they were lazy. Investors bought the stock because they realized everyone else is lazy too.   Those who saw the future in that red envelope? They could’ve caught a 10,000%+ move.   Another story…   Back in the mid-2000s, Amazon launched Prime.   It wasn’t flashy—but it was fast.   Free two-day shipping. No minimums. No hassle.   People subscribed because they were impatient. Investors bought the stock because they realized everyone hates waiting.   Those who saw the future in that speedy little yellow button? They could’ve caught another 10,000%+ move.   Finally…   Back in 2011, Bitcoin was trading under $10.   It wasn’t regulated—but it worked.   No bank. No middleman. Just wallet to wallet.   People used it to send money. Investors bought it because they saw the potential.   Those who saw something glimmering in that strange orange coin? They could’ve caught a 100,000%+ move.   The people who made those calls weren’t fortune tellers. They just noticed something simple before others did.   A better way. A quiet shift. A small edge. An asymmetric bet.   The red envelope fixed late fees. The yellow button fixed waiting. The orange coin gave billions a choice.   Of course, these types of gains are rare. And they happen only once in a blue moon. That’s exactly why it’s important to notice when the conditions start to look familiar.   Not after the move. Not once it's on CNBC. But in the quiet build-up— before the surface breaks.   Enter the Blue Button Please read more here: https://altucherconfidential.com/posts/netflix-amazon-bitcoin-blue  Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/ 
    • What These Attacks Look Like There are several ways you could get hacked. And the threats compound by the day.   Here’s a quick rundown:   Phishing: Fake emails from your “bank.” Click the link, give your password—game over.   Ransomware: Malware that locks your files and demands crypto. Pay up, or it’s gone.   DDoS: Overwhelm a website with traffic until it crashes. Like 10,000 bots blocking the door. Often used by nations.   Man-in-the-Middle: Hackers intercept your messages on public WiFi and read or change them.   Social Engineering: Hackers pose as IT or drop infected USB drives labeled “Payroll.”   You don’t need to be “important” to be a target.   You just need to be online.   What You Can Do (Without Buying a Bunker) You don’t have to be tech-savvy.   You just need to stop being low-hanging fruit.   Here’s how:   Use a YubiKey (physical passkey device) or Authenticator app – Ditch text message 2FA. SIM swaps are real. Hackers often have people on the inside at telecom companies.   Use a password manager (with Yubikey) – One unique password per account. Stop using your dog’s name.   Update your devices – Those annoying updates patch real security holes. Use them.   Back up your files – If ransomware hits, you don’t want your important documents held hostage.   Avoid public WiFi for sensitive stuff – Or use a VPN.   Think before you click – Emails that feel “urgent” are often fake. Go to the websites manually for confirmation.   Consider Starlink in case the internet goes down – I think it’s time for me to make the leap. Don’t Panic. Prepare. (Then Invest.)   I spent an hour in that basement bar reading about cyberattacks—and watching real-world systems fall apart like dominos.   The internet going down used to be an inconvenience. Now, it’s a warning.   Cyberwar isn’t coming. It’s here.   And the next time your internet goes out, it might not just be your router.   Don’t panic. Prepare.   And maybe keep a backup plan in your back pocket. Like a local basement bar with good bourbon—and working WiFi.   As usual, we’re on the lookout for more opportunities in cybersecurity. Stay tuned.   Author: Chris Campbell (AltucherConfidential) Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/   
    • DUMBSHELL:  re the automation of corruption ---  200,000 "Science Papers" in academic journal database PubMed may have been AI-generated with errors, hallucinations and false sourcing 
    • Does any crypto exchanges get banned in your country? How's about other as Bybit, Kraken, MEXC, OKX?
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.