Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

GCB

95% of Traders Lose: Is this Stat Misleading?

Recommended Posts

By knowing that the FED would CUT 75 basis points I had an edge. Look at the movements after the CUT !

 

The Charts did not show it !

 

...

 

Again NO CHARTS gave a hint to that change again in direction !

Again, I hate that this is getting off topic, but if you are NOT strictly a technical trader how can you say that the charts did not show it? I must be missing something. :hmmmm: That's like a dentist telling a brain surgeon how not to do a procedure.

 

I always get a kick out of people who use absolutes when dealing with things that "can't be done". Ignorant/Arrogant ground to walk on unless one has an underlying scheme to use such emotionally driven language. :)

 

Why can't people spend more time specifically explaining how they do it versus telling others how it can't be done. Am I the only one that finds that concept as common sense?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Again, I hate that this is getting off topic, but if you are NOT strictly a technical trader how can you say that the charts did not show it? I must be missing something. :hmmmm: That's like a dentist telling a brain surgeon how not to do a procedure.

 

I always get a kick out of people who use absolutes when dealing with things that "can't be done". Ignorant/Arrogant ground to walk on unless one has an underlying scheme to use such emotionally driven language. :)

 

Why can't people spend more time specifically explaining how they do it versus telling others how it can't be done. Am I the only one that finds that concept as common sense?

 

 

 

I agree entirely! Lets try to be more specific and less emotional. With trading, as with most things in life, there is more than one way to do things.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The 95% stat may be a solemn warning, but it also may be innappropriately discouraging. It seems that, according to the statistics, if you become a trader you have roughly the same chances of success as if you start a small business in general. That's actually encouraging news to me.

 

A while back I was talking to a Friend that is Real Estate Broker, I told him about the failure rate in trading and he said " well thats very similar to the failure rate that the national real estate agency puts out every year."

 

I agree with your statement very much. I believe that statement to be unrealistcally discouraging and not accurate. but its a good ego rub for those who are consitantly profitable.

 

yes trading successfuly (profitably) is not an easy business, anyone whose ever traded real money knows that in their heart.

 

However, the same is true with any other business. To be succesful in any business/endeavor is not an easy task and trading is not any different.

That said, I will admit that trading as a business has some unique challanges that may set it apart from most general businesses. Unless you have the luxury of being taken in by a veteran trader for several years...then you will most likely have a different view point and most retail traders don't have that luxury.

 

 

 

 

Regards..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree with your statement very much. I believe that statement to be unrealistcally discouraging and not accurate. but its a good ego rub for those who are consitantly profitable.

 

I don't think its discouraging at all, people just come to this game with the wrong mindset. Even on message boards and that, people will post you need 6 months or whatever to learn...give me a break. Its like saying in the last 6 months you fixed your furnance and installed an air conditioner so why not try starting your own heating and air conditioning business. Starting out its even worse than that though, more like you changed a light bulb and now feel ready to start your own business as an electrician.

All these small business fail and people usually start a business in something they know alot about. If you don't take the time to learn your craft, sharpen your tools, learn to keep the books, have enough capital to get going then you should expect to fail, at any business.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think that, for a variety of reasons, most people go about trading with much less preparation than they would for most other businesses. For example, trading seems easier because there is no physical work involved. Also, the money we do make (and lose) happens very quickly, sometimes in minutes or seconds. No physical activity + small time frames triggers something in peoples minds and makes them think this is easier than other businesses. This deception MAKES trading difficult. Also, in trading your biggest hurdle is yourself. We have to look within and truly modify our behavior to be successful, even after we have put in the work to create a plan. The fact that the single biggest factor in whether you will succeed or as a trader or not is intangible makes it pretty tough. So in a roundabout way, yes I believe trading is more difficult than running an antique store.

 

The fact is that if trading wasn't difficult, we wouldnt have the opportunity to make millions in a single day.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Exactly, low barriers of entry with the ability to get wiped out quickly. Those that are not serious and prepared are quickly removed from the scene but are still counted in the percentage.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wow a million in a single day...that makes my daily profit goal really small.:missy:

 

Just pulling your leg.:)

 

This year was extrem volatility, great for trading, yet exhausting. will get some needed rest durring the holidays.

 

 

 

Happy Holidays to all.....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have not read this whole thread, so forgive me if I am redundant.

 

I feel the 95% number is probably accurate if you count everybody who ever enters the markets.

 

However, if you limit your sample to just professional traders, who have made a career out of trading, my guess is that very few lose on a regular basis. It's thier JOB to win.

 

We have a huge trading industry. It's so huge, that it is very difficult to comprehend. If the pros were not winning most of the time, the trading industry simply would not exist.

 

You could look at it in the context of professional fighting (MMA/Boxing/Kick Boxing etc...)

 

In the lower ranks, ALL lower level fighter lose on a regular basis. By the mid level ranks, they start wining much more often. The high level guys win more often, than not. The elite win most of the time.

 

Trading is the same way. The goal is to always be working to advance to the next higher division.

 

What league are you in?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I have not read this whole thread, so forgive me if I am redundant.

 

I feel the 95% number is probably accurate if you count everybody who ever enters the markets.

 

However, if you limit your sample to just professional traders, who have made a career out of trading, my guess is that very few lose on a regular basis. It's thier JOB to win.

 

We have a huge trading industry. It's so huge, that it is very difficult to comprehend. If the pros were not winning most of the time, the trading industry simply would not exist.

 

You could look at it in the context of professional fighting (MMA/Boxing/Kick Boxing etc...)

 

In the lower ranks, ALL lower level fighter lose on a regular basis. By the mid level ranks, they start wining much more often. The high level guys win more often, than not. The elite win most of the time.

 

Trading is the same way. The goal is to always be working to advance to the next higher division.

 

What league are you in?

 

I had posted that almost three years ago. I would say that the number is pretty close to the truth.

 

Most forex trader's including many of the professionals are technical traders. I would guess that of all forex trader's professional or retail that at least 75% of them trade using either technicals or price action.

 

I have been trading real funds now since March 9, 2006 and I have come to the following conclusions.

 

Whether you are a technical trader or a fundamental trader or a EA trader or a combination of them all unless you have the discipline and the pyshological makeup you will be a losing forex trader.

 

A winning forex trader first and foremost needs discipline and contol of your greed, your fears and most important of all your EGO.

 

The market is always right period until it is not. The PERCEPTION is always the REALITY until it is not.

 

A fundamental trader with a risk management plan along with a trade plan understanding human nature and with an excellent grasp of the fundamentals has a good chance to win in forex.

 

I have invested 5 years of my life to learn my trade which I love. I spend many hours doing research. I have set hours to trade in and I understand price action and know when each asset class such as gold, oil, currencies, US bonds change values how it will affect the other asset class that I mainly trade. EUR/USD is my key currency that I trade. I win over 80% of all my trades and my goal each month is to earn a minimum of 10% net a month. I am sure my trading style would not work for at least 75% of all traders who think that they can win in forex without investing time and energy and especially only trading by the technicals which change like night and day especially in these volatile times. Good Trading ALL !!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I had posted that almost three years ago. I would say that the number is pretty close to the truth.

 

Most forex trader's including many of the professionals are technical traders. I would guess that of all forex trader's professional or retail that at least 75% of them trade using either technicals or price action.

 

I have been trading real funds now since March 9, 2006 and I have come to the following conclusions.

 

Whether you are a technical trader or a fundamental trader or a EA trader or a combination of them all unless you have the discipline and the pyshological makeup you will be a losing forex trader.

 

A winning forex trader first and foremost needs discipline and contol of your greed, your fears and most important of all your EGO.

 

The market is always right period until it is not. The PERCEPTION is always the REALITY until it is not.

 

A fundamental trader with a risk management plan along with a trade plan understanding human nature and with an excellent grasp of the fundamentals has a good chance to win in forex.

 

I have invested 5 years of my life to learn my trade which I love. I spend many hours doing research. I have set hours to trade in and I understand price action and know when each asset class such as gold, oil, currencies, US bonds change values how it will affect the other asset class that I mainly trade. EUR/USD is my key currency that I trade. I win over 80% of all my trades and my goal each month is to earn a minimum of 10% net a month. I am sure my trading style would not work for at least 75% of all traders who think that they can win in forex without investing time and energy and especially only trading by the technicals which change like night and day especially in these volatile times. Good Trading ALL !!!

 

Like you, I have dedicated a substantial amount of time developing my skills. I am always looking to further improve as well. Right now, I predominantly work on Futures trading.

 

However, pure technical trading is pretty much the same, across the board. For example, in the system I am reviewing now, the 2 main indicators generally always do the same things when the market starts to move into a new trend. Which market I am looking at seems to be irrelevant.

 

We will see if this works in the long run applied to the Forex as well. So far it is though.

 

 

You are right on the money about the psychology part. That is a much bigger aspect than is overtly visible. Trading is one of the few things that is totally counter intuitive. A healthy detachment, and almost *Not* caring seems to find the greatest success. Saying "F it" and blowing off the day to go sailing is often more productive than putting your nose to the grind stone.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Like you, I have dedicated a substantial amount of time developing my skills. I am always looking to further improve as well. Right now, I predominantly work on Futures trading.

 

However, pure technical trading is pretty much the same, across the board. For example, in the system I am reviewing now, the 2 main indicators generally always do the same things when the market starts to move into a new trend. Which market I am looking at seems to be irrelevant.

 

We will see if this works in the long run applied to the Forex as well. So far it is though.

 

 

You are right on the money about the psychology part. That is a much bigger aspect than is overtly visible. Trading is one of the few things that is totally counter intuitive. A healthy detachment, and almost *Not* caring seems to find the greatest success. Saying "F it" and blowing off the day to go sailing is often more productive than putting your nose to the grind stone.

 

 

I sincerely wish you the best and I hope you have much fun and make much money. If you are interested I can post some links for you that will probably compliment your futures trading. What futures do you trade ? I consider myself highly knowledeable in Gold and Silver though it does make crazy moves because of interventions in the paper market.

 

Try reading Jim Sinclair's Mineset daily for very good insight into the real news not the CNBC spin news.

 

Snippet: From October 8

 

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

 

Globalism has its downside. This is quite true.

 

Major U.S. Banks At Risk If European Debt Crisis Spreads

 

If European politicians are unable to contain their sovereign debt problems, Wall Street could be on the brink of another financial crisis, according to economists.

 

Although U.S. banks have limited their direct exposure to Greece, they have loaned hundreds of billions of dollars to European banks and governments that may not be able to pay them back, according to the Bank for International Settlements. If some European governments and banks are forced to default on at least part of their debt, American banks could lose a significant amount of money on that account alone.

 

The resulting panic from investors could compound the losses. Short-term borrowing costs would spike, bank stock prices would plummet and investors could demand their money from banks, several economists say. In a repeat of the liquidity crisis of 2008, some U.S. banks could run out of the money necessary to fund their day-to-day operations.

 

"We’ve seen this already," said Jay Bryson, global economist at Wells Fargo Securities. "Some sort of financial crisis in Europe would be enough to finally push the United States economy back into a recession."

 

Some predict that a European financial crisis would spread quickly to U.S. shores. The pain would not come directly from government defaults; U.S. banks have loaned just $36.2 billion to the five European governments that are in danger of defaulting: Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy. But U.S. banks have also loaned $60.6 billion to banks in those five countries, and $275.8 billion to banks in Germany and France, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements.

 

A string of sovereign debt defaults would endanger the survival of major European banks, including those in France and Germany, which hold a large amount of troubled sovereign debt on their books, some economists note. According to Bryson, French banks’ exposure to the five European countries that are in danger of defaulting amounts to 25 percent of France’s gross domestic product, and the exposure of German banks to those countries is worth 15 percent of Germany’s total output.

 

More…

.

 

Thanks for your reply.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, I can trade any commodity, index or financial that has a margin under 10k. However, I tend to stick with the hard commodities, Grains, meats, Softs, Metals and Energies.

 

If I don't have the margin to trade a market, I generally paper trade it anyway, if the technical set up is good.

 

I have been reviewing the system from Facts Trading for the last few months. Although it is for Futures, it seems to work for everything.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The average failure rate of a trader is 3 months. I'm just speculating here, but I would wager that for those who make it past the first 3 months, 50% fail in the next 3 months, 50% in the next 3, leaving 25% of the traders left (who made it past the first 3 months).

 

As for the % of traders who make it past the 1 year mark, it's probably somewhere around 10%, the reason - trading is 90% psychological.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The average failure rate of a trader is 3 months. I'm just speculating here, but I would wager that for those who make it past the first 3 months, 50% fail in the next 3 months, 50% in the next 3, leaving 25% of the traders left (who made it past the first 3 months).

 

As for the % of traders who make it past the 1 year mark, it's probably somewhere around 10%, the reason - trading is 90% psychological.

 

I started trading via Demo accounts of $50,000 US during September 2003. During March 2006 I started trading real funds. 5 Years later I still trade and on a scale of 1 to 100 I would give myself a 60 starting in 2006. Today I would give myself a 90 with my average ROI about 10% a month.

 

Trading is about 75% psychological and maybe more. However unless you have superior Risk Management skills in these markets you will lose. I guess that does tie into your 90% psychological.

 

Nice to see your post.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I started trading via Demo accounts of $50,000 US during September 2003. During March 2006 I started trading real funds. 5 Years later I still trade and on a scale of 1 to 100 I would give myself a 60 starting in 2006. Today I would give myself a 90 with my average ROI about 10% a month.

 

Trading is about 75% psychological and maybe more. However unless you have superior Risk Management skills in these markets you will lose. I guess that does tie into your 90% psychological.

 

Nice to see your post.

 

you give yourself a 90 with a monthly roi of 10%? You should give yourself a 200.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Why should the estimate that trading is 90% psychological correlate in any way to the estimate that 10% of new traders make it past a year? Surely it's possible that less than 10% of people have the pyschological ability to make it past year 1, year 2, year 3 or whatever.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

TN,

 

you give yourself a 90 with a monthly roi of 10%? You should give yourself a 200.

 

as a performance worker who grades self by how many ticks I took from the number of ticks available, I can totally relate to how he could ‘only’ give himself a 90 with a monthly roi of 10%... even in the few months where I’ve had way way over 10% roi I never rated myself higher than a 93

 

Stable 97+ is my goal - which would consistently include attaining the potential of both stupendously high financial returns and flow / ‘effortless’ high performance

 

 

Why should the estimate that trading is 90% psychological correlate in any way to the estimate that 10% of new traders make it past a year? Surely it's possible that less than 10% of people have the pyschological ability to make it past year 1, year 2, year 3 or whatever.

 

Negotiator, could you clarify / restate / expand on that please? I don’t quite understand what you’re saying… Thanks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

zdo,

 

I think what Tim was saying, unless I'm very much mistaken, is that because trading is supposedly 90% psychology, only 10% of people will make it past year 1. I am saying that I don't agree that the percentage of people making it past year 1 directly correlates to how pscychological trading is. It's like saying that 90% of becoming a pro athlete is psychological, so 10% of people who try will still be trying or have made it after year 1. It just doesn't make sense. Maybe I misinterpreted the point.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks. That clears it up for me.

Will await Tim's interpretation... because he is onto something --- whether we're getting the 'stats' right or not

 

:haha: "...half the game is 90% mental..." yogi beri

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
zdo,

 

I think what Tim was saying, unless I'm very much mistaken, is that because trading is supposedly 90% psychology, only 10% of people will make it past year 1. I am saying that I don't agree that the percentage of people making it past year 1 directly correlates to how pscychological trading is. It's like saying that 90% of becoming a pro athlete is psychological, so 10% of people who try will still be trying or have made it after year 1. It just doesn't make sense. Maybe I misinterpreted the point.

 

The two weren't meant to be correlated. And it's just my belief that trading, or sports, or business is 90% mental. Granted, you still need that other 10%, but if you look at any great sports figure they will tell you how they mentally rehearse and practice in their mind.

 

As for guessing that 10% of traders make it past the first year. Just look at the "give up" rate on humans in general. How many times do people start something and quit right away, or start with a plan of doing big things and then fizzling out in the first year. So there wasn't much analytical research on the topic. Although the 3mo failure rate for traders I've heard mentioned by my broker and others multiple times.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
And it's just my belief that trading, or sports, or business is 90% mental. Granted, you still need that other 10%, but if you look at any great sports figure they will tell you how they mentally rehearse and practice in their mind.

 

 

Tim, I have heard this statement in various forms in trading and sports. When you or others say "mental" or "psychological" what specifically are you referring to? Are you referring to more broad definitions to include things like perseverance and determination, or is it more specific like a traders ability to follow their trading plan or a quarterback's ability to read a defense?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Tim, I have heard this statement in various forms in trading and sports. When you or others say "mental" or "psychological" what specifically are you referring to? Are you referring to more broad definitions to include things like perseverance and determination, or is it more specific like a traders ability to follow their trading plan or a quarterback's ability to read a defense?

 

The psychological battle with yourself is for the most part what it refers to.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • NASDAQ 100 PRICE ANALYSIS — DECEMBER 1 The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) has rounded off November on a positive note, after the month up by more than 11%. This surge was mainly stimulated by the recently-concluded US Presidential election and the discovery of potential COVID-19 vaccines. These themes were the major dominating fundamental factors through November, as hopes for things to go back to normal (pre-covid) ignited some sectoral rotation. The rotation occurred mainly between work-from-home stocks and traditional businesses, which helped indexes like the Dow Jones (DJIA) and Russell 2000 take the lead from the Nasdaq 100. Nonetheless, the NDX remains in a favorable position as markets enter the close of 2020. That said, stimulus hopes and potential political stalemate in Washington over most of President-elect Biden’s policies could cause the Federal Reserve to maintain its dovish outlook, which would be very beneficial for NDX bulls. That said, it is likely that there are tailwinds present in the equity market ahead of December and 2021. However, there’s the possibility that the NDX could fall into consolidation before we see a continuation to the upside, as the US Presidential election-induced volatility has now been weaned out of the market. Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Value Forecast — December 1 NDX Major Bias: Bullish Supply Levels: 12300, 12370, and 12439. Demand Levels: 12220, 12000, and 11890. The NDX is on an aggressive bullish rally as it inches closer to its all-time high at 12439. At the moment, the 12220 support will likely prevent any sustained decline given the confluence of indicators (ascending trendline and 12220 crucial support) at that level. We expect the NDX to break its previous all-time high and record new peaks in the coming days before consolidation likely sets in.   Source: https://learn2.trade 
    • GERMANY 30 (DE30EUR) IS IN A DOWNWARD MOVE, MAY FALL TO LEVEL 13153.70 Key Resistance Zones: 13600, 14000, 14400 Key Support Zones: 11200, 10800, 10400 Germany 30 (DE30EUR) Long-term Trend: Bullish The index is an upward move but it is facing resistance at level 13200. It must have reached bullish exhaustion as it faces rejection. On November 10, a retraced candle body tested the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement. This indicates that the index will rise to level 1.1129 and perhaps reversed. DE30EUR – Daily Chart Daily Chart Indicators Reading: Presently, the SMAs are sloping upward indicating the uptrend. The index is at level 64 of the Relative Strength Index period 14. This indicates that it is in the uptrend zone and above the centerline 50. Germany 30 (DE30EUR) Medium-term Trend: Bullish On the 4- hour chart, the index is in a downward move. On November 30 downtrend, a retraced candle body tested the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This implies that the index will fall and reach level 1.618 Fibonacci extension. DE30EUR – 2 Hour Chart 4-hour Chart Indicators Reading The market is below the 80% range of the daily stochastic. It indicates that the index is in a bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the 50-day SMA and the 21-day SMA are sloping upward indicating the uptrend. General Outlook for Germany 30 (DE30EUR) DE30EUR is likely to take a downward movement. The index has been trading in the overbought region. Sellers may emerge to push prices down. However, in a trending market, the overbought condition may not hold. That is the pair will continue to rise. Source: https://learn2.trade 
    • Date : 30th November 2020. Events to Look Out for This Week.Europe and US are in the middle of a second wave of Covid-19 infections. The prospect of another hit to the economy in Q4 and emerging lockdown disruptions.still leaves central banks and fiscal authorities in crisis mode, but positive news on the vaccine front leaves investors looking ahead to the recovery. Next week’s focus will remain on the virus, Brexit as the latest and supposedly final deadline, is next Tuesday, OPEC+ group which will also decide on extending prevailing quota restrictions next Tuesday, and on the Non-Farm Payroll outcome. Monday – 30 November 2020   Eurogroup Meeting Non-Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:00) – The Non-manufacturing PMI is expected to slowdown to 52.1 from 56.2 in October. Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 13:00) – The German HICP preliminary inflation for November is anticipated to remain unchanged at -0.5% y/y. Pending Home Sales (USD, GMT 15:00) – Pending home sales experienced a minor decline at -2.2% in September after four consecutive months of contract activity growth/ For October we could further decline to -2.6%. Tuesday – 01 December 2020   RBA Rate Statement & Interest Rate (AUD, GMT 03:30) – In the last meeting, RBA stepped up stimulus to ensure recovery by announcing a package of measures designed to secure a rapid recovery from the crisis now that lockdowns have lifted. RBA’s Lowe also stated that he sees no appetite to go into negative rates. The central bank head send a pretty clear signal that the focus now has shifted to asset purchases, with no appetite at the central bank to move into negative rate territory. Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Preliminary November inflation expected to remain unchanged at -0.3% y/y in the final reading for September, unchanged from the preliminary release. Core inflation meanwhile declined to 0.2% y/y and while special factors are playing a role, officials clearly are increasingly concerned that the prolonged period of underinflation and now negative headline rates will prompt a more lasting shift in price expectations, which against the background of a sizeable output gap and rising unemployment lifts the risk of real deflation down the line. Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Canada GDP results for the Q3 are seen to be slowing down, at a yearly rate of -39.6% compared to 38.7% last month. ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – US manufacturing PMI is expected to fall to 57.5 in November from a 2-year high of 59.3 in October. We’re seeing a modest November pull-back in available producer sentiment measures to still-elevated levels, as output is continuing to rise in the face of plunging inventories and rising sales, with limited headwinds from delayed stimulus and continued virus outbreaks. Fed’s Governor Powell testimony (USD, GMT 15:00) Wednesday – 02 December 2020   RBA’s Governor Lowe speech (AUD, GMT 00:00) Gross Domestic Product (AUD, GMT 00:30) – GDP is the economy’s most important figure. Q3 GDP is expected to confirm slowdown to -7.8% q/q and -7.2% y/y. Retail Sales (EUR, GMT 07:00) – German sales are anticipated to have fallen slightly to -0.8% in October, compared to -2.2% m/m in September. ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 13:15) – The ADP Employment survey is seen at 500k for November compared to the 365K in October. Thursday – 03 December 2020   Trade Balance (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Australian retail trade is expected to see a strong decline in August, at -8.5% y/y from the downwards revision in June at -2.9% y/y. Retail Sales (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Retail Sales dropped -2.0% m/m in September, more than anticipated. It left the annual rate still at 2.2% y/y, indicating a pick up compared to the same months last year, but different sales season amid the pandemic distort the picture and the annual rate is actually down from 4.2% y/y in the previous month. ISM Service PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – US Markit October services PMI was revised up to 56.9 in the final read versus 56.0 in the preliminary. It’s the best reading since April 2015 and is a third month in expansion. In November the ISM Service PMI is seen at 56.4. Friday – 04 December 2020   Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 00:30) – October’s Retail sales could be improved by 1.6%, following a -1.1% September loss. Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 13:30) – Expectations are for the headline number to be around 750k in November, after gains of 638k in October, 672k in September. The jobless rate should fall to 6.8% from 6.9% in October, versus a 14.7% peak in April. Average hourly earnings are assumed to rise 0.1% in November, with a headwind from further unwinds of the April distortion from the concentration of layoffs in low-wage categories slows. This translates to a y/y gain of 4.2%, down from 4.5%. We expect the payroll rebound to continue through year-end, though the climb is leaving a net drop for employment for 2020 overall. Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Canadian data coincides with the USA release today with dire expectations for a slight deduction in Unemployment to 8.8% from 8.9% last month and a rise from the 83.6 in October for employment, to 100k. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date : 27th November 2020.FX Update – November 27 – Sterling in FocusGBPUSD, H1Narrow ranges have been prevailing in risk-cautious trading. The USDIndex settled around the 92.00 level, above yesterday’s 12-week low at 91.84. EURUSD remained buoyant but off from the 12-day peak seen yesterday at 1.1942. Cable also held within its Thursday range. USDJPY ebbed to a four-day low at 103.91. The Yen was concurrently steady versus the Euro and the Pound, but posted respective two- and four-day lows against the Australian and Canadian Dollars. AUDUSD ticked fractionally higher, which was still sufficient to lift the pair into 12-week high terrain above 0.7380. NZDUSD posted a new 29-month peak at 0.7030. USDCAD remained heavy but just above recent 17-day lows. Bitcoin, which performed strongly this year on the back of dollar liquidity, found a toehold, but remained over 12% down on its recent highs.US markets will reopen after yesterday’s Thanksgiving holiday, but market conditions will remain on the thin side. President Trump said that he will leave the White House if the Electoral College votes for Biden, which may be as close to formally conceding the election as he will go. A sharp focus remains on EU and UK talks, with a face-to-face round reportedly taking place in London over the weekend. There are now reports that the EU parliament might convene as late as December 28 to ratify a deal, if necessary.The spectre of a no-deal hangs over proceedings, though the consensus, as judged by the ongoing stability of the Pound, remains for a narrow deal to be reached.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date : 26th November 2020.Brexit endgame remains in sharp focus!The USD has remained soft in quiet conditions, while global asset markets have seen little direction. The US Thanksgiving holiday has quelled activity. Europe’s Stoxx 600 traded near flat. Most stock markets in Asia gained, though remained off recent highs. The MSCI World Index is also off its highs, but remained buoyant and on course for a record monthly increase this month. Copper posted a new near 7-year high, and while other base metal prices were also underpinned most remained off recent trend highs. Oil prices saw modest declines after recent gains, which culminated in a nine-month high yesterday.The Brexit endgame remains in sharp focus!Sterling has seen limited direction, continuing to hold gains from month-ago levels of around 1.5% to 2.5% versus the Dollar, Euro and Yen. There is still no breakthrough in down-to-the-wire negotiations between the EU and UK, and there are lots of warnings of border chaos and, from external BoE MPC member Saunders, of long-lasting economic consequences in the event of a no deal exit from the common market.European Commission president von der Leyen said “we are ready to be creative” to get a deal while repeating that “we are not ready to put into question the integrity of the single market.” An Irish government member said that a deal was “imperative” for everyone.The steadiness in the Pound, the principal conduit of financial market Brexit sentiment, reveals that investors remain unperturbed. One explanation is the real money participants are sitting on their collective hands, positioning for an expected deal but waiting on concrete developments and details, while maintaining vigilance on the possibility of there being a no deal by accident.Short-term speculative participants, meanwhile, don’t seem to have had a fruitful time in trying to play the fatiguing myriad news headlines and endless deadlines that have come and gone. The latest and supposedly final deadline, is next Tuesday — December 1 — which leaves just one month for a deal to be ratified on both sides of the Channel. We expect to a deal to materialize at the last minute, just as the withdrawal agreement was seemingly pulled out of the hat at the ultimate minute a year ago. There may even be a fudged extension.Pressure on the UK government is intense. US president-elect Biden warned London that the scope for a deal with the US would be compromised if there is a return of a hard border on Ireland — which is what could happen in a no-deal scenario (the UK government would have the choice between maintaining a free-flowing border on Ireland at the price of breaking up the border integrity of the UK, and possible protests and even violence from loyalists, or breaking the EU withdrawal agreement, which would result in a hard Irish land border).A leaked Whitehall document warns of a “perfect storm” of chaos in the event of a no-deal in the Covid-19 era. There are also pressures on the other side of the Channel to reach an accord. While French President Macron has political incentive to put up a show of fighting over fishing rights, he is not likely to carry through on his threat to veto any deal as other key EU states don’t see the UK’s position on fishing as being unreasonable. France and other nations, and the UK, also need to maintain good relations for security and many other practical reasons.As for the market impact of a deal, much will depend on how narrow the deal is. The narrower it is, the bigger the negative impact on both the UK and EU’s terms of trade positions will be on January 1, particularly the UK’s.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.