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mohsinqureshii

Gold Bullish or Bearish

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Why is the $ falling.?????

How far will it fall?

 

 

re: "Why"

in this weird global race to the bottom, their only perceived option may be 'helicopter money'

 

my related question -

Is the USD "falling" or just 'correcting' ?

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GOLD IS NOT MONEY

...Which brings me to a critical point: Before you can logically argue whether something is or isn’t money, you must first have a definition of money. And since we are dealing with something that affects everyone, the definition must be practical and easily understood.

The only practical definition of money is: the general medium of exchange or a very commonly used means of payment within an economy. By this definition, gold is not money in any developed economy today. By this definition, the US$ is money in the US, the euro is money in the euro-zone, the Yen is money in Japan, the Australian dollar is money in Australia, etc. ...

Gold Is Not Money « TSI Blog

Gold Is Not Money, Part 2 « TSI Blog

 

 

GOLD IS MONEY

Gold and silver are money because, unlike all other commodities, people accumulate them without limit. Virtually all of the gold ever mined in human history is still in human hands. The “stocks to flows” ratio (inventories divided by annual production) for gold is 80 years. For silver it is also measured in decades.

For other commodities, it is measured in months.

Think about this. It means that there is no such thing as a “glut” in gold or silver. If the wheat harvest comes in a few percent higher than expected, the price can crash. If oil consumption rises a little, the price can spike. But in the case of gold and silver, the value has nothing to do with either mine production or jewelry or electronics consumption.

Stability is exactly what we want and expect from money. The prices of gold and silver, as expressed in dollars, are unstable, not because of gold and silver, but because of the dollar itself.

This means that you cannot analyze the fundamentals of gold and silver with conventional techniques. It is not possible to predict changes in the prices by looking at “supply” (i.e. mining and recycling) and “demand” (i.e. jewelry and electronics). All of those huge inventories are potential “supply”, at the right price. Everyone on the planet is potential “demand”, at the right price.

...

https://monetary-metals.com/introduction-to-the-monetary-metals-supply-and-demand-report/

 

GOLD IS / IS NOT MONEY

This is an oscillating polarity. Some hiss when I say a person can oscillate between the extremes in the ‘space’ of one morning - but I did it in the 80’s myself and from the insights gained through awareness of it I’ve been able to observe it occurring multiple times unconsciously in other traders while they were in trades. More typical is an oscillation that takes years to move from one pole to the other... “gradually then suddenly” (Hemingway) ... maybe leading the crowd by a little... maybe lagging the crowd by a little... but either way sticking pretty close to the ‘media's dominant’ crowd...

and whether on fast cycling or slow cycling ocsillation, being (unconsciously) trapped in this polarity will inevitably cloud your 'analysis' capacity of PM's ...

 

Gold is money -----------------------|--------------------------- Gold is not money

See the pipe.

That can be you.

YOU can be the mediating pole btwn those two polarities.

ie fck / get beyond all the collective memes about it.

 

If gold is money to you, then gold IS money.

If gold is not money to you, then gold IS NOT money.

 

... and btw - Yes! Gold can be money and not money (and beyond) to you without you needing to ‘fashion or follow a narrative’ if you ...

 

Have a great weekend

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CEO mark Bristow of Randgold on Bloomberg recently:

 

Interviewer: "Is the industry (gold mining) toast"?

Barstow: "I believe so, the industry is toast".

 

Later he says that the company is looking at acquiring good mines from failing companies, but all they have seen is mines that companies want to get rid of and can. Randgold is waiting until miners have to get rid of their prized possession, "quality" mines; the ones they have said they would never sell.

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Later he says that the company is looking at acquiring good wells from failing companies, but all they have seen is wells that companies want to get rid of and can. Randoil is waiting until drillers have to get rid of their prized possession, "quality" wells; the ones they have said they would never sell...

 

Must be because all the permabull oil buyers switched over to Tesla Model S P85D’s

 

They need to wear new silver hats. ;)

 

 

Spooky Action at a Distance

India permits free energy technology despite threat from UK, US, Saudi Arabia |

;)

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Just how PM bearish can you be?

 

COT’s are horrendously bearish.

The same price pressure that has been applied via leveraged ‘paper’ PM’s for many years still continues - even when no one is yapping about it.

The Chinese, etc have found that BTC is so much ‘easier’ than PM’s.

If you account for price inflation (~11% since most recent PM peak), PM’s are already making “multiyear lows” ...

And who on earth isn’t glad when PM’s ‘go down’ more?

The bears are glad. The bulls are too.

 

So...

Just how PM bearish can you be?

 

Well -

You can’t really be PM bearish at all! ?? You can only be FIAT bullish.

... and you’ve been subliminally promised the USD will be the last to fail.

Fail? What fail?

Fail is when the veil comes off. Trust in the debt/currency charade is lost by a quorum. The fragility of fake stability finally plays out... The Fiat becomes truly worthless...again

 

Some have difficulty accommodating this perspective, but PM’s already made their ‘move’. PM’s have ‘hyperinflated’ from ~32 USD per oz to over 1000 USD per oz ‘long ago’. The 'more to come' doesn't really matter... still

 

With each passing day, it becomes less of a stretch to be a ‘permabull’... stretch out of the collective trance that keeps PM’s in terms of dollars... into a new trance where dollars are put in terms of PM’s

:)

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Hi Zdo

You have excelled in your latest post..... you have fooled me.:confused::confused::confused::

I dont get your point.:doh::doh:

I realise coming from Romania, language can present a problem.:haha:

Are you still LONG Silver? :):)

kind regards

bobc

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Gold and miners set for a dead cat bounce here. Gold hitting lower bollinger bands and miners hitting 50dma support.

 

Hi Eddie,

The $ is stable.

The Stock Market is good.

US growth is great.

Demand for PMs is not exciting. Chinese misdirection..

And you are predicting a bounce.?

Do you have a LONG position?

regards

bobc

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Hi Zdo

..... you have fooled me...::confused::

Where did it confuse you?

 

 

Are you still LONG Silver? :):)

kind regards

bobc

 

I continue to actively (but not dynamically) and as nimbly as possible, hedge a long position in physical silver using both silver and gold futures contracts (and occasionally, when the cycles are right, etf’s)

 

Still holding with the assertion I made in late Sept that for the next 4 ish months PM’s are a good vehicle for both longs and shorts - instead of favoring an exclusive long or short bias. Long term - still like the long silver ratio trade... but that is empty right now... resting orders above and below.

As far as outright spec trading goes, I am currently much more active in the energy sector than I am PM’s... simply more attuned to it right now... and think it has slightly more % move potential than PM's during this time period... would like to see lower prices in both sectors... for building a scale trade in nrg's, for accumulation opportunities in PM's

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I continue to actively (but not dynamically) and as nimbly as possible, hedge a long position in physical silver using both silver and gold futures contracts (and occasionally, when the cycles are right, etf’s)

 

Still holding with the assertion I made in late Sept that for the next 4 ish months PM’s are a good vehicle for both longs and shorts - instead of favoring an exclusive long or short bias. Long term - still like the long silver ratio trade... but that is empty right now... resting orders above and below.

As far as outright spec trading goes, I am currently much more active in the energy sector than I am PM’s... simply more attuned to it right now... and think it has slightly more % move potential than PM's during this time period... would like to see lower prices in both sectors... for building a scale trade in nrg's, for accumulation opportunities in PM's

 

Hi Zdo

Thank you for an honest answer. You are basically a good person. :)

I have some Silver questions for you tomorrow. Its sleeping time in South Africa:sleep:

Kind regards

bobc

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Question: Why is it no one, says what goes down must go up. Eventually.

 

Answer: 99.9999% go long (especially PM types) and can only get their brain wrapped around one direction.

 

Burn baby burn. :helloooo:

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Hi Zdo

Over the years you have told us why you prefer Silver

And we are all aware of the positive correlation between Gold and Silver.

Silver is falling with Gold at present

Please tell us again why you favour Silver.Or are you just buying coins for a rainy day?

kind regards

bobc

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For all the Gold bulls.....

Tomorrow morning the Non Farm Payroll report is published.

The experts expect 180 000 new job created.

Thats the number for Gold.

If its higher than 180 000, the market starts pricing in a rate hke in Dec.

That means a stronger $, and Gold breaks below 1100.

It also means weaker OIL and the stock market will take a hit.

If its below 180 000, we can all relax.

So a strong economy , more jobs, strong $, actually sees a pullback in the market

Does my reasoning make sense?

bobc

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For all the Gold bulls.....

Tomorrow morning the Non Farm Payroll report is published.

The experts expect 180 000 new job created.

Thats the number for Gold.

If its higher than 180 000, the market starts pricing in a rate hke in Dec.

That means a stronger $, and Gold breaks below 1100.

It also means weaker OIL and the stock market will take a hit.

If its below 180 000, we can all relax.

So a strong economy , more jobs, strong $, actually sees a pullback in the market

Does my reasoning make sense?

bobc

Your reasoning makes sense, but sometimes the market doesn't.

 

Anyway the miners are getting crushed today so it doesn't seem to matter to Gold. At the moment anyway.

 

I'd say stock market continues higher .... unless NFP is below 180,000 considerably.

 

Oil continues lower (maybe not tomato) but overall no matter what. Supply is huge, demand isn't. Come to think of it just like Gold. :rofl:

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Where did it confuse you?

 

 

 

 

I continue to actively (but not dynamically) and as nimbly as possible, hedge a long position in physical silver using both silver and gold futures contracts (and occasionally, when the cycles are right, etf’s)

 

Still holding with the assertion I made in late Sept that for the next 4 ish months PM’s are a good vehicle for both longs and shorts - instead of favoring an exclusive long or short bias. Long term - still like the long silver ratio trade... but that is empty right now... resting orders above and below.

As far as outright spec trading goes, I am currently much more active in the energy sector than I am PM’s... simply more attuned to it right now... and think it has slightly more % move potential than PM's during this time period... would like to see lower prices in both sectors... for building a scale trade in nrg's, for accumulation opportunities in PM's

A man with conviction.

I am nothing right now. I will be short at 1097. Otherwise, I see only noise. Others can make money in this range, but not I.

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Randgold is waiting until miners have to get rid of their prized possession, "quality" mines; the ones they have said they would never sell.

He’s not the only one...

 

but now for the snippet of ‘social’ commentary

One factor that needs to be mentioned re these properties... many of those “would never sell” properties are valuable not so much for their vein quality as they are valuable because the mines are located in areas where it is possible to operate using slave labor.

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Why is it no one, says what goes down must go up. Eventually.

 

 

What goes down must go up. Eventually.

 

There now... Someone said it.

Happy now? ;)

 

The attempt to render in European tongue the grand panorama of the ever periodically recurring...is daring... for no human language... can do so with any degree of adequacy...

But owing to the intrinsic difficulties of the subjects treated, and the almost insurmountable limitations of the English tongue (as of all other European languages) to express certain ideas, it is more than probable that the writer has failed to present the best and in the clearest form; yet all that could be done was done under very adverse circumstance, and this is the utmost that can be expected of any writer.

HP Blavatsky

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"Your talents as a fed watcher are no longer needed... Sorry we’re going to have to let you go"

Btw folks I also don’t think I will have to ‘be a long bear’ much longer in the stock indexes.

I’m convinced most players will be able to continue to deny all the “the last time this happened’s” that are occurring right now. However, they will be able to respond to a ‘new’ / different narrative... when collapse becomes more economical than ‘promises of reform’ or 'solutions', etc etc...

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Hi Zdo

Over the years you have told us why you prefer Silver

And we are all aware of the positive correlation between Gold and Silver.

Silver is falling with Gold at present

Please tell us again why you favour Silver.Or are you just buying coins for a rainy day?

kind regards

bobc

 

My ‘preference’ for silver is simple... based on a long term / generational ratio trade. For a long time it has been my opinion that silver does ok in authentic ‘deflation’ (not like the quasi deflation the world is experiencing in revenues, “commodities” etc etc now,). A recent article illustrates and details some aspects of this - Silver and Deflation | Kitco News

 

... Btw, by that accord, I may have finished exchanging physical gold for physical silver a bit early - but there were overriding practical reasons. ... and I’m talking in decades long perspectives ... been gradually working this exchange since 2005.. with more decades before it’s time to start exchanging physical silver for gold again.

 

For spec trading (and sometimes much of my hedging in silver), I still prefer gold contracts over silver... liquidity, etc...

 

ya'll have a great weekend...

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