Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

mohsinqureshii

Gold Bullish or Bearish

Recommended Posts

What do you see Gold in next 3 months ? Bullish or Bearish ? Is Gold really heading towards 2500 $ an oz as major research firms of the world predict.

 

Your view please.

 

message too short. please lengthen to at least 20 characters

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
MM,

 

That was the OP of this thread... years ago.

 

... and since then, not one single gold bear has posted in this thread.

 

zdo

 

Dear zdo

SunTrader and I have been gold bears for years. :(:(

What are you talking about? :confused::confused:

Kind regards

bobc

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Dear zdo

SunTrader and I have been gold bears for years. :(:(

What are you talking about? :confused::confused:

Kind regards

bobc

 

Think.

Unless someone is really

“it’s worth $1 oz bearish”

- they are not REALLY bearish.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Gold is the new Silver

 

that's fascinating :)

 

but - it may be the other way around

 

...

 

back to my point

How many truly bearish posts have been made in this thread? ... I’m mean TRULY bearish - like the stuff is worthless/useless... like

With greenhorns in gold starting to figure all this out, the price has gotten tarnished. It is time to call owning gold what it is: An act of faith. As the Epistle to the Hebrews defined it forevermore, "Faith is the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen." Own gold if you feel you must, but admit honestly that you are relying on hope and imagination.

 

Recognize, too, that gold bugs - the people who believe in owning the yellow metal no matter what - often resemble the subjects of a laboratory experiment on the psychology of cognitive dissonance.

Jason Zweig WSJ

 

If you remember any such truly bearish posts in this thread, please remind us and thx... cause ALL the other posts are actually ‘bullish’ gold ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
that's fascinating :)

 

but - it may be the other way around

 

...

 

back to my point

How many truly bearish posts have been made in this thread? ... I’m mean TRULY bearish - like the stuff is worthless/useless... like

Jason Zweig WSJ

 

If you remember any such truly bearish posts in this thread, please remind us and thx... cause ALL the other posts are actually ‘bullish’ gold ;)

#1303

#1035

#943

#835

#703

#524

#513

#494

#464

#396

#386

#384

#313

#86

#78

 

Just a selection of posts indicating my rather short bias throughout this thread. I do not ever recall a long thought. In fact, I have not had a long trade in gold since 2011 (I think). All gold (commodities) trades have been short.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
#1303

#1035

#943

#835

#703

#524

#513

#494

#464

#396

#386

#384

#313

#86

#78

 

Just a selection of posts indicating my rather short bias throughout this thread. I do not ever recall a long thought. In fact, I have not had a long trade in gold since 2011 (I think). All gold (commodities) trades have been short.

 

All good posts...

I still ‘accuse’ you of being a bull ! ;)

... a bunch of short bulls... ;)

admirable...

 

maybe more later...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

since I don't have time to write today here's some cut and paste

 

...

We constantly emphasize that gold does not go up or down. It’s the dollar that goes down or up, respectively. It’s mostly down, from over 1500mg gold in 1913 to just under 28mg today. This is an epic fall of more than 98% (though it’s up from around 16.5mg in 2011).

 

If it is controversial to say that gold doesn’t move, it’s even more so to say that the cause of the dollar’s decline is not its increasing quantity. The cause is its decreasing quality. In just the last 44 years since President Nixon’s gold default, the dollar fell from about 780mg. It is no coincidence that this dramatic drop occurred while the dollar went through several upheavals. The dollar was a gold redeemable currency, and then it was just a slice of the US government’s debt. Then the government spent more and more on less and less. After 2008, the dollar is partially a slice of mortgage debt, of unknown provenance.

 

It bloody well should be worth less! It represents less, claims less capital, and its likely repayment is dropping like a lead balloon.

 

That only leaves the question of why it has been rising for four years.

 

We think it boils down to confidence. Virtually everyone, from the blind faithful followers of the Fed, to its harshest critics, accept that the dollar is money. In other words, they are confident in the greatest confidence scheme ever.

 

In their view, gold goes up and down. This means: buy gold when it’s going up. And stay away, or even short it, when it’s going down. They have charts to tell them when this is occurring. And the fact is that gold has been going down for years. Few want to own a falling asset...

 

Why Is Gold Becoming Scarcer, 16 Aug, 2015 | Zero Hedge

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
since I don't have time to write today here's some cut and paste

 

 

 

Why Is Gold Becoming Scarcer, 16 Aug, 2015 | Zero Hedge

 

Seems like a nice bullish article on gold. The type of essay one wants to read if he is licking his wounds from holding a gold position. Or, possibly a good article to read if one is astute and notices that gold has dropped in price and likes to buy low in anticipation of selling higher.

 

Good read or bad read, it does not change the fact that there are not enough buyers buying gold and willing to hold it long enough. Sure, someone is buying it, but eventually the new buyers, who bought low, sell lower because they didn't buy low enough. They are not the committed buyers needed to provide support to the price of gold. So, the price will continue to drop.

 

Gold is a commodity and will act as a commodity acts.

Edited by MightyMouse

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Seems like a nice bullish article on gold. The type of essay one wants to read if he is licking his wounds from holding a gold position. Or, possibly a good article to read if one is astute and notices that gold has dropped in price and likes to buy low in anticipation of selling higher.

 

Good read or bad read, it does not change the fact that there are not enough buyers buying gold and willing to hold it long enough. Sure, someone is buying it, but eventually the new buyers, who bought low, sell lower because they didn't buy low enough. They are not the committed buyers needed to provide support to the price of gold. So, the price will continue to drop.

 

 

MM

 

:)

re: "Seems like a nice bullish article on gold." No. It's a

"Good Analysis of Gold" ;)

 

Here it is - All those that think they’re bears out there really aren’t. Here’s how. Check the posts, all the analysis, projections etc. They all have a point - conscious or unconscious - where their 'bearish' ends. Most stop their supposed bearishness at 850 USD per oz. Oh a few get real 'bearish' and take the ‘destination’ to 350 USD, but hey! - on what freukn planet is ANY element really worth more than 200 USD oz? How the fk can AU possibly be 'worth' over 1000 USD right now? ... it’s a big bunch of bulls that don’t even know they are bulls, I tell ya... ;)

 

more...cont... ( with thorny pencil in hand I write....mkt memories/’market memory’ that matters to no one except me..... ) It took me 8 difficult years (’85-‘93) to learn how to be a comfortable ( ie sans internal disruptive dissonance) ‘long bear’ in index futures. Those lessons make it easy to be a ‘short bull’ now in PM’s when needed.

 

(And btw - it’s is no coincidence that both families of instruments are highly manipulated ... from the 'highest' possible levels of manip... )

 

This thread needs some fresh technical analysis posts ... and some fresh new conspiracy theories... ;)

Edited by zdo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
MM

 

:)

re: "Seems like a nice bullish article on gold." No. It's a

"Good Analysis of Gold" ;)

 

 

It is an analysis that lines up with your line of thinking; hence, it is a "good analysis of gold".

 

I would think a good analysis of gold would be an essay with a negative hypothesis.

 

A bull thinks the price will be rising.

A bear thinks the opposite

 

How can gold be worth $_____? Any price can be inserted in the slot. The more reasons, per the article, the less likely it is correct.

 

A: When will the price of gold be worth $(current price) X 2?

B: When will the price of gold be $(current price) /2?

 

If you think B will occur before A, then you are a bear. If you think A will occur before B, then you are a Bull.

 

The price of gold can go up for reasons that are not included in that essay you posted.

Would you still call the analysis good if that happened?

What is more important: getting the direction right or getting the analysis right?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

What is more important: getting the direction right or getting the analysis right?

 

Wise words:cool::cool:

 

My analysis is bearish which is wrong........ for the moment.:missy::missy:

Now LONG 2 contracts @ 1110 Target 1123 Stop 1105

1123 was a very important level which was smashed on the down side, but might be resistance going up.

bobc

PS I always get the impression, members who give an analysis on this thread bought at 1500, and are now looking for a reason to hold their position. :crap::crap:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Wise words:cool::cool:

 

My analysis is bearish which is wrong........ for the moment.:missy::missy:

Now LONG 2 contracts @ 1110 Target 1123 Stop 1105

1123 was a very important level which was smashed on the down side, but might be resistance going up.

bobc

PS I always get the impression, members who give an analysis on this thread bought at 1500, and are now looking for a reason to hold their position. :crap::crap:

 

This thread is a cemetery of bullish commentary.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

MM,

 

I don’t know how many times I will have to explain it instead of pasting posts with smilies and winkies and :other: - but when I use the “Good analysis of gold” quote started by some other recent poster, I’m being incredibly facetious. Like ;) ;) ;) ;) ;)... Starting to catch on?

 

And nothing in my most recent post referenced or commingled with that article or any other article... ie

 

(Spot X 2) or (Spot / 2) = all are bulls! The 'bearishers' just don’t realize their bullishness... It's occluded by price sensitivity... You'll have a hard time finding that assertion made explicit in any "_____ or ___ analysis of gold" article...:)

 

zdo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
MM,

 

I don’t know how many times I will have to explain it instead of pasting posts with smilies and winkies and :other: - but when I use the “Good analysis of gold” quote started by some other recent poster, I’m being incredibly facetious. Like ;) ;) ;) ;) ;)... Starting to catch on?

 

And nothing in my most recent post referenced or commingled with that article or any other article... ie

 

(Spot X 2) or (Spot / 2) = all are bulls! The 'bearishers' just don’t realize their bullishness... It's occluded by price sensitivity... You'll have a hard time finding that assertion made explicit in any "_____ or ___ analysis of gold" article...:)

 

zdo

 

Aha. Somehow I missed the winkies. Please don't use my error as an invitation to add more winkies next time to adjust to my disability. Two dimensional text is a poor form of communication.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like our ‘technical’ posters are scared to post, so I’ll just throw more conspiracy peces not yet covered by MSM (

;) ;) ;);););););););););););););););););)

+ 14 more hidden smilies for MM and Co. ;)

 

here goes :)

 

The ‘swan’ * =

global covert war

“currency war”, “space / kinetic war”, and “sabotage war” ... so far

 

August 11, 2015: China devalues the Yuan by 1.9%... "shockwaves" around the world ... “a devastating impact to the U.S. economy”. (???)

 

August 12, 2015: Tianjin struck by "Rod of God" weapon, a space-based top-secret kinetic weapon dropped from high orbit

 

August 22, 2015, early morning U.S. time, large industrial storage center in the Shandong province struck by "Rod of God"

 

August 22, 2015, later in the day U.S. time: massive explosion rips through a U.S. Army munitions storage facility near Tokyo, obliterating it.

 

(Sept. ___, 2015 Coordinated and partially successful grid attack on North American continent... )

...

So now we got

The ‘bounce’ *

 

:confused?:

All is well. Your dollars are safe. We now return you to your regularly scheduled programming

--- which currently consists of scared white noise from bulls who believe they are bears

:helloooo:

ie we patiently await some chart analysis ...

while waiting we do fun, useful :rofl: meme/narrative posts

 

 

* both the swan and the bounce 'discussed' in http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/market-analysis/12054-gold-bullish-bearish-204.html#post198839 )

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

zdo your years of bullish posts precede you. So please stop with the bullish is bearish is bullish $1000 is $300 is $10000 bullsh.t.

 

Its ok if you don't want to stick your neck a make a call.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The bounce is over, and with the big gains in the US Market yesterday,a short gold position looks good. Sell below 1120

As MM says, get the direction right and leave the analysis to the experts.;)

bobc

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And for those of you who dont understand fundamentals,elliot waves, Mars conjunct Venus ,or channel breakouts,heres a secret for trading Gold.I have always believed that Gold leads Silver up/ down.It turns out the other way round. For the last 4 years of the Gold bear market, Silver has been the leader and Gold has followed.

Easy, hey!! :roll eyes:

regards

bobc

:2c::2c::2c:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date : 12th December 2019. Lagarde prepares ECB debut – 12th December 2019.   Policy unchanged Projections unlikely to change much Clues about review sought Style in focus Presiding over her first presser of the European Central Bank today, Lagarde is expected to confirm once again the current policy setting, giving time to ECB to focus on the planned review of its overall policy framework.Final Eurozone GDP and PMI readings broadly supported this neutral picture, while the confidence that a deep recession can be avoided is strengthening (Figure 1) despite the fact that German manufacturing and production numbers still look weak. The exports and the overall trade are actually holding up much better than expected, which together with still strong labour markets is underpinning hopes the net exports and consumption will continue to support growth not just in Germany.Figure 1 : December German ZEW investor confidence outcome, end the year firmly in positive territory at the highest level since February 2018.As there is nothing in the data really to challenge the ECB’s overall policy stance, the focus firstly turns into the tone and presentation style that President Lagarde will have. The “risk” is that the presser will be equally uneventful as her testimony before the European Parliament. Lagarde’s team building exercise seems to have worked and at least in public there has been a pretty consistent message since she took over, which is very likely to be confirmed today. Additionally it will be interesting to see whether she will back fully Draghi’s package.Citi Bank: All key interest rates will likely be left unchanged, and the forward guidance reaffirmed. The main interest at this meeting will be the new Eurosystem staff projections, extended to 2022, to gauge whether the September package will be sufficient to bring inflation back into line with the ECB’s target over the forecast horizon. If not, investors’ attention will quickly turn to the ECB’s toolbox and what instruments the Governing Council would be willing to use and when, in order to defend its credibility in the absence of large fiscal support. The upcoming strategic review of monetary policy will also likely be the focus of many questions.Hence as reported by Citi, other than Lagarde’s style, ECB projections could also monopolize the attention. Even though, the ECB remains ready to act again and tweak all its measures if necessary, it has already done a lot and now needs to keep an eye on the side effects of the very expansionary monetary policy, while politicians need to do their bit to support the economy.The central bank won’t be reducing the degree of stimulus any time soon with many analysts supporting that this will continue until mid-2020 unless there is a major change in circumstance.Central bankers will be conducting a comprehensive review of the policy framework, however, with a special focus on the inflation target. A more symmetric definition, which stresses that the ECB can see through lengthy inflation overshoots as well as periods of too low headline rates is likely to come in the first quarter of next year. The inclusion of owner-occupied housing costs into the HICP number also remains a challenge especially as house prices are rising rapidly in some centres, also thanks to the low interest rate environment.Bund yields have nudged higher over the past week, but the German 10-year so far failed to move lastingly above -0.3%. Uncertainty on trade and Brexit are keeping a lid on yields, although there is the risk that if things go the way markets want and a phase one trade deal is confirmed and in the UK PM Johnson gets his majority, there could be a sharp rise in yields, if markets price out further easing and start to look ahead to central banks removing some of the stimulus.However this is far away for now, while central bankers are not looking eager to add further easing.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • USDJPY Remains Biased To The Downside   USDJPY faces further price weakness despite its price hesitation on Tuesday. On the upside, resistance comes in at 109.00 level. Above this level will turn attention to the 109.50 level. Further out, we expect a possible move towards the 110.00 level on a break of that area, A cut through here will open the door for more gain towards the 110.50. On the downside, support lies at the 108.00 level where a break will target the 107.50 level. Below that level will turn focus to the 107.00 level and then lower towards the 106.50 level. On the whole, USDJPY faces further downside threats.        
    • Sterling Advances Barely Hours To UK Elections As Latest Poll Predicts Conservatives Win In just two days from now, a major event that will set the trend for the currency market for the year 2020, the UK elections will be held. In the face of a Brexit extension, UK prime minister had pushed for an earlier election in the hopes of having a majority conservatives win in the parliament which will make the Brexit deal pass through easily. As the clock ticks, with barely less than 48 hours to this epochal event, the newest poll by Survation conducted for ITV’s good morning Britain show predicts a Boris Johnson win by 14 pts. ahead of Jeremy Corbyn‘s Labour party. The Brexit deal seemed to give the conservatives an edge as it accounted for 32% of the vote decision while NHS gave Labour party a slight edge. On the overall, a majority vote of 42% was predicted for the conservatives while Labour had 28%. Market Reaction as the Clock Ticks Optimism looms in the market as the prediction of a conservatives win will ease Britain’s exit from Europe by January 31 deadline. The EUR/GBP pair continued to fall till the early hours of today breaking the 0.8411 trend line targeting the 0.8149 resistance level. GBP/USD pair rebounded to consolidate briefly targeting 1.3381 resistance levels. Technical analysis within a 4-hour MACD shows that both pairs may likely touch down. CAD edged slightly higher advanced by USMCA news but yet to consolidate gains. The USD against a basket of five major currencies held steady awaiting FOMC’s minutes due out tomorrow. Against a basket of currencies, NZD’s dominance is the highest. Sterling also gained momentum firmed up by approaching UK elections. The safe-haven, the Japanese yen, and Swiss franc remain pressured as major events that will shape the market for 2020 are been anticipated. On the Asia side, significant market activity wasn’t recorded as most currency pairs held steady within a day’s range. In the Asian stock market, not so much activity was recorded being weakened by recently released Chinese PMI numbers. Most of the indexes closed a little lower while US stocks rose swiftly after Friday’s release of US non-farm payroll reports. The outcome of the December 15 deadline set by the US for the signing of a preliminary trade pact will determine the week’s direction and even further into the year 2020. Also due out later in the week is UK GDP figures and ZEW released out of Germany.
    • Date : 11th December 2019. FOMC Preview – 11th December 2019. FOMC Preview No policy changes or surprises are expected with today’s announcement (19:00 GMT) and Chair Powell’s press conference 30 minutes later. It will be interesting to see if, as expected, the voting is unanimous this time round. The FOMC members have expressed significant differences of opinion during 2019 as three rate cuts were implemented.  The apparent paradox of low unemployment and low inflation, the new “norm”. The two-digit unemployment rate (U-3) in November edged down to 3.53% from 3.56% in October, and a 3.52% cycle-low in September, all below the 3.58% prior cycle-low in April and a 4.00% rate at the beginning of the year. Current readings remain much lower than the 4.2% long-run unemployment rate projection noted in the September SEP, it is expected that this estimate will be trimmed today. Headline CPI rose 0.4% in October while the core index rose by 0.2%, for respective y/y gains of 1.8% and 2.3%, versus September figures of 1.7% and 2.4%. Today the November headline is expected to fall again to 0.2% and the core remains flat at 0.2% too. The Fed’s favoured inflation gauge, the PCE chain price measure, rose 1.3% y/y in October and expectations are for an uptick to 1.4% in November. The core PCE chain price measure rose 1.6% y/y in November, versus 1.7% in September, and expectations are for the pace to hold at 1.6% in November. The FOMC’s latest median estimates for 2019 inflation are 1.5% for the headline and 1.8% for the core. Hence, the focus will be on the Fed’s new quarterly forecasts, with expectations raised and likely to be mostly bullish results with a bump up in the median growth projection and a drop in the median dot to reflect a steady stance through 2020. However, the individual dots are likely to show both, forecasts for cuts and hikes. Chair Powell is expected to reiterate the US economy and policy are in a “good place,” (a phrase he has used a number of times lately) and could sound a little more upbeat after the strong jobs report. But, he will continue to warn of downside risks. The FOMC isn’t likely to announce any new measures on reserve management operations (QE?) or a repo facility. All steady into 2020 and beyond. USDIndex remains biased to the down side but has support around 97.40 and the 200-day moving average. A breach of this key support zone brings in 97.00 and the October low of 96.85. A break over 97.80 (the confluence of the 20 and 50-day moving averages) and 98.00 would be required before a re-test of the recent high at 98.50 could be considered. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.