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mohsinqureshii

Gold Bullish or Bearish

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We now interrupt your technical programming...

 

The dollar is now “strong” and PM’s are ‘weak’ . But are PM’s really ‘weak’ ? Will an oz of gold still purchase pretty much what it always did in goods and services? Over decades and decades , has it lost anywhere near the purchasing power the USD, etc. has lost? The dollar is now “strong” and gold is ‘weak’ - but only if you have a very short memory or limited knowledge and understanding.

 

Have you held an oz of gold in your hands lately? It takes 1200 USD to buy that? I’m thinkin that one can buy 1200 USD with one little oz of the stuff says far, far more about the dollar (or whatever fiat/debt currency you’re ‘swapping’) than it does about gold.

 

Like - instead of at 2000 decibels, now it only screams at 1200 decibels in the canary mine. But that is still screaming bloody (money) murder.

 

Each of us is either pretending or not pretending that our (worthless) paper currencies have not lost any value since the exchange taxation / assassination / demonetization of PM’s. Each of us is either in denial or not in denial. Each of us is either herd supporting a lie, a fraudulent paper PM market, a ‘matrix’ of sorts - or NOT.

 

Just saw where Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation says their guarantees of funds are uncertain / at risk / just may not be possible in over 50% of the un(der)funded pensions in the US. That, played on out, is how this fiat, keynesian rip-off , ultimately gets you - blatantly. If you are younger and paying/saving into this system, you are REALLY getting ripped off by unnoticable little bits and pieces every day.

 

...paraphrasing Francisco’s “money speech” in Atlas Shrugged - PM’s are an objective value, an equivalent of wealth produced. Fiat paper is a mortgage on wealth that does not yet exist, backed by a gun aimed at those who are expected to produce said wealth into existence. Paper is a check drawn by legal looters upon an account which is not theirs: upon the virtue of the victims. Watch for the day when it becomes marked: ‘Account overdrawn.’

 

Fwiw, for me re ” Gold Bullish or Bearish "

I have been bearish gold for years now in terms of silver. Over the years I have swapped gold for silver and just recently ‘finished’ - now (except for a selection of gold coins I want to keep) I’m entirely out of physical gold, entirely into physical silver (which has its own set up practical hassles, btw)

In terms of fiat, re ” Gold Bullish or Bearish" - I could not care less.

 

We now return you to your regularly scheduled technical analysis...

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Gold is a commodity.

All commodities closely follow the laws of supply and demand.

When prices rise, supply enters the market.

Historically, or normally, supply was physical, but we no longer live in normal times or we have a new type of normal. There are more ways to get involved in PM than one can list; most of which are paper gold that does nothing more than mimic the price of gold. More people have access to PM than ever before and that leads to bigger and deeper bull and bear cycles. Since we have seen the last sucker who bought, we are now looking for the last sucker who sold as we work through this incredibly oversupplied market. We are a long time away from the bottom. At this point we can expect gold to drop to lows not seen in at least a decade. A guess would be somewhere near $500 an ounce.

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well according to the history

... it seems that investing in gold still a better option :)

 

:helloooo:

 

"investing"

There’s that word again :)

 

gold is never a good investment

it is only rarely even among the best trades

its best purpose is as a (relatively) physically secure, easily transact able, etc. etc. store of (un-invested) wealth

 

 

:spam:

You Think You're An Investor? I Think Not | Zero Hedge

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Gold To Face Repeating Challenges: CPM Group's Gold Yearbook

 

Tuesday March 24, 2014

 

The factors which weighed on gold’s decline in 2014 are expected to carry over this year, said research firm, CPM Group on Tuesday.

“The annual average price decline during 2014 was smaller than the 15.6% decline seen in 2013, however, on an intraday basis, gold prices slipped to $1,130.40, their lowest level since 2010,” CPM Group said.

 

CPM expects these factors to remain in place in 2015.

 

Buying Interest

 

Investors purchased 28.1 million ounces of gold in 2014, a 16.3% decline from 33.5 million the previous year.

 

CPM Group said that although the reduction in purchases weighed on gold prices, it still ranked in the top 15 for highest level of investment demand since 1950.

 

“This relatively healthy investment demand was one of the primary factors that helped support gold prices at historically elevated levels during 2014. Longer term investors were largely responsible for the net additions,” CPM explained.

 

CPM anticipates investor purchases to decline in 2015 to 26.9 million ounces. This would still rank investment demand during 2015 in the top 20% of net additions to investor holdings on an annual basis.

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Tuesday should be the end of current correction to the bear trend and resume making new multi monthly and even multi year lows after taking out 1132.

Got a 1 day reprieve. Thurs should be it.

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Wall Street And Main Street Both See Higher Gold Prices Next Week

Friday April 17, 2015

In Wall Street vs. Main Street, out of 31 market professionals surveyed, 22 responded this week. According to the results, 13 experts, or 59%, see prices moving higher, while three, or 14%, see prices down and six, or 27%, see prices sideways or unchanged. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.

 

Turning to Main Street, 421 votes were collected in Kitco News’ online survey and the results were slightly closer compared to the market professionals. Of those who participated, 188 or 45%, are bullish on gold next week, 140, or 33% are bearish and 93 or 22% are neutral.

 

On the professional side, analysts said they expect the U.S. dollar to be the biggest factor in gold’s direction next week.

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-Russia buys one million ounces and increases gold reserves by another 2.6% in March

-Large purchase by Russia who normally buy some 300,000 ounces a month

-Russian gold reserves, at nearly 40 million ounces, are now fifth largest in the world

-Russia likely coordinating gold reserve accumulation with ex-Soviet States

...

-Central banks continue to accumulate large volumes

 

These are some stupid people. Why can’t they be like us and think gold is just another commodity that is only worth 500 precious USD per oz.? Stupid people in India think the stuff is valuable too. Why?

 

We now return you to your regularly scheduled Keynesian programming.

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These are some stupid people. Why can’t they be like us and think gold is just another commodity that is only worth 500 precious USD per oz.? Stupid people in India think the stuff is valuable too. Why?

 

We now return you to your regularly scheduled Keynesian programming.

 

It is not as simple as that, gold is not only a commodity but a fear indicator, safe heaven and it represents real value of the currency.

 

I think we'll see gold trading above 2k per ounce in the mid/long term future.

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It is not as simple as that, gold is not only a commodity but a fear indicator, safe heaven and it represents real value of the currency.

 

I think we'll see gold trading above 2k per ounce in the mid/long term future.

 

Dear pro4X

How did you work this out?:confused:

Are you expecting the $ to collapse mid/long term?:crap:

Or is it just gut feel?:rofl::rofl:

And how do I use this info to trade short term?:missy:

kind regards

bobc

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It is not as simple as that, gold is not only a commodity but a fear indicator, safe heaven and it represents real value of the currency.

 

I think we'll see gold trading above 2k per ounce in the mid/long term future.

 

pro4X,

 

I was being facetious... This trader loves to see instruments driven way below their cost of production...I like "desperation" ( btw not the 'desperation-lite' the way the word has become a new technical term in here recently )

 

gold is a commodity AND it is money.

Moneys have varying qualities. Gold is high(est) quality money, with very stable purchasing power, etc, etc...

to the point where when I look at a chart anymore I don't see it in terms of gold moving around in terms of dollars, I see it as your dollars goin' up and down...changing in 'value'. Basically, the PM's aren't going anywhere. It's the debt moneys that are flipping about...

 

:missy:

 

charles hugh smith-The Rehypothecation of Gold, and Why It Matters

 

and taking a sharp Fri afternoon turn...

http://www.acting-man.com/?p=36914

Louisiana bans using cash in sales of second-hand goods

Question of the day: If it’s not well hidden, do you actually ‘have’ any money at all? ;)

 

(to the NSA and whatever statist agencies you feed this info to, we hope your scrapers note the wink smiley at the end of that post...:rofl: )

 

we now return you to your regularly scheduled Keynesian programming

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It is not as simple as that, gold is not only a commodity but a fear indicator, safe heaven and it represents real value of the currency.

 

I think we'll see gold trading above 2k per ounce in the mid/long term future.

 

Simple supply and demand issues.

 

Lots and lots of supply created on the way up and maybe some more on the way down too.

 

Gold has a long way to go before the market works through all that supply.It will deal with the supply at lower and lower prices until all of it has been processed.

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Dear pro4X

How did you work this out?:confused:

Are you expecting the $ to collapse mid/long term?:crap:

Or is it just gut feel?:rofl::rofl:

And how do I use this info to trade short term?:missy:

kind regards

bobc

 

You are asking how to use knowledge of a long term trend for short term trades? :)

Maybe go with the trend???

 

My calculations were on the market cycles and yes, the great fall of the dollar in the long term.

Maybe something like that?

2e1x8u8.png

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You are asking how to use knowledge of a long term trend for short term trades? :)

Maybe go with the trend???

 

My calculations were on the market cycles and yes, the great fall of the dollar in the long term.

Maybe something like that?

2e1x8u8.png

 

Hi pro4

Thanks for the reply.

And what will happen to Gold when interest rates start rising?

The trend is DOWN..

regards

bobc

 

PS Apologies to zdo for my Keynesian approach.I know he prefers the Austrians ;)

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I believe in Austrian School of Economics - which also factors in supply and demand.

 

And there is plenty of demand for U.S. dollars through out the world currently and expected in the near future.

 

When that changes the price of Gold might change - from continuing to go down, down, down.

 

Down to $975 - $890 range. :haha:

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Lots and lots of supply created on the way up and maybe some more on the way down too.

 

Gold has a long way to go before the market works through all that supply.It will deal with the supply at lower and lower prices until all of it has been processed.

MM

 

We must be careful of over generalizing re: Supply (and Demand).

There is supply of real gold ... and then

There is supply of paper gold

These days it’s best not to fuse them... best to see them as two separate instruments

just sayin... :cool:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

My calculations were on ...and yes, the great fall of the dollar in the long term.
proFXtrader

Something may be wrong with my thinking ...

Yes ultimately the USD is a ‘fiaty’ currency and will fail.

But I question the timing of the long running death meme of USD that comes from the alt financial ‘press’.

I don’t see the new Chinese ‘bank’, etc as being much of a threat to the USD Hegemony - esp in terms of exchange rates.

Along the way, I even see the possibility that gold could be ‘Strong’ AND the dollar could be ‘Strong’ simultaneously. HowThFk could that be?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Apologies to zdo for my Keynesian approach.I know he prefers the Austrians
bobseytwinz ;)

Keynes...

 

While I would certainly agree with Mises more than I would Keynes, if you came into the Austrian camp looking for me, it’s not likely you’d find me unless I just happened to be visiting at the same time as you...

 

and topics like whether or not Keynes was a socialist, etc or not are really not that important (and OMG you can have a whole dang internet argument about such “whethers”... google will provide you with enough misleading propaganda for a month).

The pivot is that he was a ‘Statist’ ( govts “owned by the people” haha (socialists, etc.) or govt ‘owned by the bankers’ haha (fascism, oligarchs, etc - both are Statist) ... Yet his book, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money was an instant success with both socialists and governments around the world—the latter, because his new “economic principles” stated that governments should control the monetary system—full stop. That was music to their ears, and most governments have been devotees ever since. And while Keynes himself would not advocate what a lot of “Keynsians” view as proper policy today - still he treated economics as a ‘philosophy’, not a science and, as a ‘statist’, the truth was irrelevant; all that mattered was the objective.

 

The sad truth - Mises was also a Statist... and his work would ultimately be corrupted to the objectives of stygian oligarchs. etc etc.

More salient to your gold is the current ‘trend’ stretching the central banks’ mandates to the next step - to a global money ...

An anarch...

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proFXtrader

Something may be wrong with my thinking ...

Yes ultimately the USD is a ‘fiaty’ currency and will fail.

But I question the timing of the long running death meme of USD that comes from the alt financial ‘press’.

I don’t see the new Chinese ‘bank’, etc as being much of a threat to the USD Hegemony - esp in terms of exchange rates.

Along the way, I even see the possibility that gold could be ‘Strong’ AND the dollar could be ‘Strong’ simultaneously. HowThFk could that be?

 

I see gold as a benchmark for the value of the Dollar, therefore while gold could be considered as a constant, USD will move around it and very likely loosing value due to more and more money being created our of thin air.

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The other way around. The dollar determines the value of Gold and most every other major tradable market in the world.

 

Don't fight the fed ... until that no longer applies.

 

The fed moves (some say controls) the markets. What they say and what zdo says is all that matters.

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The other way around. The dollar determines the value of Gold and most every other major tradable market in the world.

 

Don't fight the fed ... until that no longer applies.

 

The fed moves (some say controls) the markets. What they say and what zdo says is all that matters.

 

I dread the day the fed is no longer in control.I don't think I will be around then.

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I dread the day the fed is no longer in control.I don't think I will be around then.

 

Although USA is constantly fighting for the USD being the world trade currency, major market players (countries) are slowly moving away from the USD. In the long term Dollar will most likely lose the domination and Gold as a symbol of real purchasing power could take over. But as you say..."I don't think I'll be around then"

 

Corporations who control Fed, most likely control most of the gold reserves anyway and could allow USD to fall faster than we expect.

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Although USA is constantly fighting for the USD being the world trade currency, major market players (countries) are slowly moving away from the USD. In the long term Dollar will most likely lose the domination and Gold as a symbol of real purchasing power could take over. But as you say..."I don't think I'll be around then"

 

Corporations who control Fed, most likely control most of the gold reserves anyway and could allow USD to fall faster than we expect.

So you like to have it both ways.

 

If gold goes up - it is because the corporations want it to.

 

If gold goes down - see above.

 

I will continue to just trade price - which ever way it goes.

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So you like to have it both ways.

 

If gold goes up - it is because the corporations want it to.

 

If gold goes down - see above.

 

I will continue to just trade price - which ever way it goes.

 

 

I didn't say anything about DOWN, I said its a matter of time for UP (USD fall = GOLD rise).

Edited by pro4Xtrader

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I didn't say anything about DOWN, I said its a matter of time for UP (USD fall = GOLD rise).

You said:

 

"Corporations who control Fed, most likely control most of the gold reserves anyway and could allow USD to fall faster than we expect"

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Main Street Expect To See Higher Prices Next Week, Wall Street Bearish

Friday May 1

 

In an online survey, 351 people voted; of those, 170 participants, or 48%, expect to see higher gold prices next week, 117 people, or 33%, expect to see lower prices and 64, or 18%, are neutral.

 

This week, out of 33 market experts contacted, 19 responded; of those, 9 participants, or 47%, see lower prices, 6 experts, or 32%, see higher prices and 4, or 21%, are neutral on the gold market. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.

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