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mohsinqureshii

Gold Bullish or Bearish

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Friday it poked its pinbar nose thru the 61.8% ret level - for a 3rd time recently. If you are mainly referring (as all good permabulls do) to the up days of Weds/Thurs price wasn't in position yet. Time was with 5 day up move after previous two 3 day upswings. Pattern was a little indecisive.

 

So from the way I look at things, time was ready, price became ready late Friday which makes 2 out 3. But entering once price has dropped is definitely not with odds no matter how I look at it.

wed ...thur.... friday session = higher lows higher highs. I define that as a short term uptrend and would be bullish until i saw it break south of the previous bars low..in this case...fridays (last session) low. Odds favor it breaking south of Fridays low on monday because of selling on fridays price rejection. So, how would I trade this? If it breaks fridays low i would take a chance on shorting and short once it breaks the low. If it continues on down during mondays session and tues i would just stay with the short until i saw a reason to jump ship. However, if it breaks Fridays low then reverse strong back up thru it i would ditch my position reverse and go long. Nevertheless, i say odd favor shorting this session (monday). Time will tell.

 

So what are you saying? Shorting opportunity is over and you would be long? Why would you go long when price action showed all that selling on fridays bar? I am not saying you are right or wrong as you may well be right (if you are saying price setting up to go up). It may well do so. I am just saying odds favor DOWN next session or two. But if it does the opposite of what I think will probally happen then i would be quick to reverse and go long as that would indicate bulls overcoming bears from friday and uptrend will probally continue.

 

So....if you would take position right now for mondays session what would it be? Long or short?

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Minimum target of 1327.55 for gold this week coming up.

 

Silver likely to bottom around 19.468, if it hasn't already. And can lift off hardcore, taking it above $21 toward around 21.30 level.

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Gold forecast for the week of August 18, 2014

The gold markets did very little during the course of the week, essentially going sideways. The candle looks as if it’s showing support at the $1300 level again, so it’s not a surprise to see that we ultimately went nowhere, especially considering that this is an area of such great interest. With that, we are not interested in this market from a longer-term perspective as far as trading is concerned. However, we do believe that ultimately the goal market will go higher, so perhaps purchasing some physical gold may be the way to go.

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The opposite.

 

After considering time, price, and pattern odds favor shorting when price moves up, not down. Down is too late.

 

Same in reverse for up trades.

still too late? How did that long position go?

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"Other investors are convinced that they can predict the future,

and I believe that's where our profits come from"

 

John W. Henry

if there is no attempt at predicting...anticipation..forecasting..educated guessing..then it is all a game of chance..a dart board..a flip of a coin..a what is to be is to be and that is to be cannot be known or calculated or guessed or probabilitized. So, trading is a wild chance with yours being as good as mine requiring no skills..foresight..and nothing to get figured out..worked up..or devised. Furthermore, PA...indicators...volume..setups...patterns all mean NOTHING...a waste of time...MEANINGLESS trivia that cannot help atol...might as well draw straws and trade..no need for charts...price action..setups..just need to know the present price..flip a coin..heads for UP tails for DOWN and place your bets gentleman.. Lets keep it simple. A quarter will suffice..A dime will work too. :rofl: :helloooo: :haha: :missy: :angry:

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The opposite.

 

After considering time, price, and pattern odds favor shorting when price moves up, not down. Down is too late.

 

Same in reverse for up trades.

Here this chart will help us visualize PA. So, what did price do from the bar that indicated weakness and where i said the probabilities favored shorting? Fibs sometimes..many times...lie.

image.thumb.jpg.e012d72915f30b79e9787151a0da8d33.jpg

Edited by Patuca

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Gold will most likely head back up now over the next few daily bars. There exist a small chance of one more little push dwn before it heads back up but the odds favor it heading back up with or without another push down.

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CME Group Lowers Margins For Gold, Silver, PGMs, Copper

 

CME Group is lowering margins for Comex gold, silver and platinum group metals futures, and the new rates will be effective as of the close of business on Friday, according to a notice from CME Group late Thursday.

They also lowered copper margins, but those will be effective as of the close of business Monday.

The exchange operator said the changes were the result of “the normal review of market volatility to ensure adequate collateral coverage.”

Margins act as collateral on futures trades. CME Group also changed margins for electricity, crude oil, natural gas futures and a number of other products.

In the case of the main 100-ounce gold-futures contract, CME Group trimmed the “initial” margin for new speculative trades to $5,060 from $5,940. The “maintenance” margin for existing speculative trades, plus all hedge positions, was cut to $4,600 from $5,400.

For the 5,000-ounce silver contract, CME Group lowered the initial speculative margin to $7,150 from $8,250. The margin requirement for maintenance speculative positions, plus all hedge trades, was lowered to $6,500 from $7,500.

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Split Views On Gold’s Price Direction For Next Week

 

Survey participants in the weekly Kitco News Gold Survey are split over their views on gold, with no one group capturing the majority but a nominal number lean bullish.

 

Out of 37 participants, 22 responded this week. Of those, nine see higher prices, six see lower prices and seven see prices trading sideways or are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.

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Year-long consolidation in Gold prices should end soon. A strong trend period should follow once the symmetrical triangle is resolved in one direction. Volatility has decreased on weekly scale and this increased the likelihood of high volatility period in the following weeks/months. Boundaries of the consolidation stand at 1,270 and 1,360 levels. Breakout above 1,360-1,400 area will push gold price higher towards 1,525 levels. Breakdown below 1,250-1,270 support area will result in another downtrend towards 1,150 levels.

gold.jpg.39e5a036b27f31442d19dd5f080c44dd.jpg

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Survey Participants Split Over Gold Price Direction For Next Week

 

Survey participants in the weekly Kitco News Gold Survey were split again on their views for gold-price direction for next week, with only a nominal number bearish.

 

Out of 37 participants, 22 responded this week. Of those, eight see higher prices, nine see lower prices and five see prices trading sideways or are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.

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