Gold Bullish or Bearish

[zdo 20]

You* should short paper gold.

You should not read these references.

 

Stop here.

Of Two Minds - Another Reason Why the Middle Class and the Velocity of Money Are in Terminal Decline

Daniel Amerman

Daniel Amerman

US Regulators Mandate Next Stage Of Textbook Financial Repression by Daniel Amerman

 

 

*talking to You! ... Not to Bob. Bob is long. :rofl:

[zdo 20]

And here an interesting supporting my comments

SA gold shares may sustain bump in revenue

bobc

 

;);)

 

Bobc,

 

Don’t you ever EVER post (or respond to) a Rand oriented/centric comment in this thread again!!

It is just too threatening to too many denial systems here in the USSA.

Hope and change you understand.

 

zdo

 

 

;);)

[bobcollett 10]

Well zdo,

I have a few issues with this Bullish or Bearish nonsense..

Very few members are actually trading

 

Everybody is a bear, with lots of noise.:doh:

 

NOBODY, except you ,POSTS WHEN GOLD GOES UP :helloooo:

 

The market goes up and down :doh:

 

I have all sorts of correllations, ideas, proofs., technical sollutions, etc.

BUT

GUT FEEL, thats more than 10 000 hours of screen time,tells me that when the stock market falls, Gold rises..

 

And today the market went UP, and my position went down. WTF>:crap::crap:

I know. Its not very scientific.

 

regards

bobc

[zdo 20]

"In this work, we address the determinants governing spreading misinformation through a thorough quantitative analysis."

 

 

...

 

 

Do you accept or resist the following dominant narrative?

“US is the “only stable economy by comparison” and the rest of the world (mainly China) is a poison to our otherwise exemplary financial health.”

 

Sorry. folks, the days of simply blowing it off / staying neutral / wisheywashing back in forth in between or in the middle are over - so Choose!

 

gold is outrageously priced! $1000 + for an ounce of the stuff ??? come on

systemically ever thang is ok ? :helloooo:

 

zdo

 

ps bobc. I must have not put enough winks in that post ... next time more than 8... maybe 12

and btw

re Gold and Index correlation... I've been trading both of them since the mid/late 80's and to me the only times that correlation ever seemed really tradable soon after the opening was from '94 to ~ '99 ... funny what we see and then don't see... funny what we've seen and forgot we saw... funny what we saw and don't see anymore and still think we do...

[SunTrader 10]

Bob,

 

You should know correlation works ... except when it doesn't.

 

Markets have been diving for weeks and Gold barely gets a bid.

 

Short it and everything else Peter Schiff says to buy. :haha:

 

Michael

[zdo 20]

re:

Do you accept or resist the following dominant narrative?

“US is the “only stable economy by comparison” and the rest of the world (mainly China) is a poison to our otherwise exemplary financial health.”

 

...

 

one answer is:

…

Does China have considerable fiscal issues including debt bubble issues? Absolutely. Is this a catalyst for global collapse? No. China’s problems are many but if there is a first “domino” in the chain, then the U.S. economy claims that distinction.

China is the largest exporter in the world, not the largest consumer. If anything, a crash in China’s economy is only a REFLECTION of an underlying collapse in U.S. demand for Chinese goods (among others). That is to say, the mainstream dullards have it backward; a crash in China is a herald of a larger collapse in U.S. markets. A crash in China is a symptom of the greater fiscal disease in America. The U.S. is the primary cause; it is not the victim of Chinese contagion...

Brandon Smith

The U.S. Is At The Center Of The Global Economic Meltdown

[zdo 20]

We are interested in the changing equilibrium created when some market participants are accumulating hoards and others are dishoarding. Of course, what makes it exciting is that speculators can (temporarily) exaggerate or fight against the trend. The speculators are often acting on rumors, technical analysis, or partial data about flows into or out of one corner of the market. That kind of information can't tell them whether the globe, on net, is hoarding or dishoarding.

 

One could point out that gold does not, on net, go into or out of anything. Yes, that is true. But it can come out of hoards and into carry trades. That is what we study. The gold basis tells us about this dynamic.

 

Conventional techniques for analyzing supply and demand are inapplicable to gold and silver, because the monetary metals have such high inventories. In normal commodities, inventories divided by annual production (stocks to flows) can be measured in months. The world just does not keep much inventory in wheat or oil.

 

With gold and silver, stocks to flows is measured in decades. Every ounce of those massive stockpiles is potential supply. Everyone on the planet is potential demand at the right price, and under the right conditions. Looking at incremental changes in mine output or electronic manufacturing is not helpful to predict the future prices of the metals.

Keith Weiner

 

for more, see

https://monetary-metals.com/introduction-to-the-monetary-metals-supply-and-demand-report/

 

"The acceptance of ideas comes in ‘epidemics’" zdo

 

 

 

btw bobc you get out your long yet ?

as discussed a couple weeks ago I started building (over)hedge short today... 5% on... with relatively tight stops... would like to enter most of the position MM style / via weakness / stops / responsively...

Edited January 26, 2016 by zdo

[bobcollett 10]

btw bobc you get out your long yet ?

...

 

Hi zdo,

When Gold moved above $1100 , I moved my stop up to 1096, and was stopped out the next day. Profit of 7 points. Gold reached my target of $1120 in Asia this morning and I have no position. WT..ck

But today I expect a big move for marginal gold stocks. I have defraged the computer, cleaned the keyboard, all prepared. :haha:

regards

bobc

PS What are all the bears doing while Gold goes up. Are you facing this hugh drawdown, or did you have a stop in place , and at what level?

Or did you never have a position in the first place and it was all talk?

[bobcollett 10]

:offtopic:

 

I would really like to hear some thoughts on OIL.

There is massive over supply :helloooo:

How can the price go UP.?

Manipulation? Or just plain volatility?

I am trying to find a correllation between Oil and Gold :missy:

(OK Michael. I did see your post on correllation. It works until it stops working..)

 

Even if you are a complete novice and know SFA,please express your view.

I will support you if some redneck from Mississippi attacks your view

Sorry zdo.

Kind regards

bobc

[zdo 20]

Bobc,

 

start a 'crude' thread.

 

be warned though ... that fkn 'neck might show up.

 

btw 'neck doesn't remember ever going to or even through mississippi (but... no doubt have been over it ... to and from MSY, DFW, HOU etc. etc )

 

zdo

[bobcollett 10]

Bobc,

 

start a 'crude' thread.

 

be warned though ... that fkn 'neck might show up.

 

btw 'neck doesn't remember ever going to or even through mississippi (but... no doubt have been over it ... to and from MSY, DFW, HOU etc. etc )

 

zdo

 

Sorry zdo, about the Mississippi redneck.I got you mixed up with Michael (SunTrader) :rofl::rofl:

My friend Patuca come from Alabama :doh::doh:

I googled your profile and I see you come from Mexico ;)

 

On a more serious note.... "start a crude thread" :roll eyes:

Unless it includes some indicator, it will get three responses..

People come to TL looking for the Holy Grail, which is usually an indicator. I DID. :helloooo:

There is only one indicator ...... VOLUME. But thats a story for another day.

 

And on a very serious note

Today the SA Reserve Bank (equivalent of the FED), increased the interest rates by 50 bp.

You can earn about 7% on your money, but if the Rand falls 10% at the same time.... how much did you make.?

The increase in the interest rate immediatelly strenghtened the Rand,and the Gold price weakened a bit on a stronger Stock market. So that was the end of my marginal gold mine trades.

Nobody said it was easy :bang head::did I say that?::did I say that?::did I say that?:. And its the last time I trade with a clean keyboard.:crap::crap:

regards bobc

[zdo 20]

Bobc,

 

That was a thoroughly entertaining post. Thank you.

 

Seemed to me Sun was a NY ‘neck... yep they have ‘necks in NY... they are typically enigmatic ... a fierce and arrogant type of ‘neck.

btw - did patuca have a banjo on his knee?

 

More Entertainment... some “prediction” pure and simple

( “prediction” in this business done for anything but entertainment purposes only can be a weird sort of mistake! anyways... )

I would not be surprised to see this little downswing find support at ~1112 and then make a pretty good pop into the 30’s ...

again - this prediction was offered for fun only...

:helloooo:

it would be a second mistake to hope it comes true.

 

Basically timer is running down on strat buying and selling my envelopes .

Primary job now is to get hedged up as 'inexpensively' as possible for if it goes south...

:missy:

 

Re: “So that was the end of my marginal gold mine trades” Already? No other plays available?

 

Re a ‘crude’ thread with only 3 replies.

dood It only takes one post to change your whole trading life :rofl: :rofl:

 

Ya’ll ‘necks have a great weekend.

 

zdo

[SunTrader 10]

Although volume was rising on recent corrective up move and tailing off last two days, open interest was dropping. No good for sustaining this short term bull move. Dive, dive, dive :

[bobcollett 10]

Although volume was rising on recent corrective up move and tailing off last two days, open interest was dropping. No good for sustaining this short term bull move. Dive, dive, dive :

 

AAH ,Michael,

About 3 years ago I realised how you could be so confident in calling the BEAR. And I forgot about it.

You are trading options. No drawdown. Until the end.

bobc

[bobcollett 10]

Although volume was rising on recent corrective up move and tailing off last two days, open interest was dropping. No good for sustaining this short term bull move. Dive, dive, dive :

 

AAH ,Michael,

About 3 years ago I realised how you could be so confident in calling the BEAR. And I forgot about it.

You are trading options. No drawdown. Until the end.

Notice Gold goes up on good volume with nice big candles, and falls on decreasing volume. Thats a sign of strngth. and the price is holding UP near 1120, even though the Stock Market is strengthening.Maybe zdo has a point, pullback and then move to 1140.

bobc

[SunTrader 10]

Bob,

 

Never bought an option in my life.

 

"6. Rising prices and a decline in open interest at a rate greater than the seasonal norm is bearish. This market condition develops because short covering, not fundamental demand, is fueling the rising price trend. In these circumstances money is flowing out of the market. Consequently, when the short covering has run its course, prices will decline."

 

I would say ... should decline, not will.

 

Intro To Open Interest In The Futures Market | Investopedia

 

Michael

[MightyMouse 12]

I think we may have a crisis brewing. Corporate defaults are turning up, consumer credit is at a high, consumer defaults are turning up, the deal mill has come to a grinding halt, corporate credit lines are being denied. If this continues, gold becomes a long play. There isn't a whole lot that qe4 can promise but we will see more qe. I have no position but I do not want to be short right now.

[SunTrader 10]

Puny volume plus no uptick in open interest last 3 trading days. Tick, tick, tick,

[zdo 20]

does it mean anything that feb gold has retraced mid Oct to early Dec downswing by .618ish?

[zdo 20]

"no" [what about .78 ]

[zdo 20]

I think we may have a crisis brewing. Corporate defaults are turning up, consumer credit is at a high, consumer defaults are turning up, the deal mill has come to a grinding halt, corporate credit lines are being denied. If this continues, gold becomes a long play. There isn't a whole lot that qe4 can promise but we will see more qe. I have no position but I do not want to be short right now.

 

MM,

re "brewing"

 

Only one question popped into my head after reading your post - it was

Why haven’t you been saying that for 8 years now?

 

Of Two Minds - Why We Won't Have a "Lehman Moment" in the 2016 Crash

Of Two Minds - Stupor Bowl 2016

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogfeb16/seneca2-16.html

 

and re: "but I do not want to be short right now"

Why not ???

:helloooo:

 

zdo

Edited February 3, 2016 by zdo
to completely alter the post forever

[SunTrader 10]

Today had decent volume, waiting on open interest to pop. Or is it flop.

[zdo 20]

Bobc,

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/market-analysis/20098-oil-bullish-bearish.html#post201620

See how easy that was ?!

[zdo 20]

does it mean anything that feb gold has retraced mid Oct to early Dec downswing by .78ish?

[zdo 20]

"yes"

 

ie little bit not much