Gold Bullish or Bearish

[Ammeo 10]

Some Pro-Analysts are predicting a Bearish run which may go down to 1350...

It has now broken its long term support of 1540-1560 range and entering the 1400's...the bears should ready their guns for some action...

[ntrader 10]

Technically, gold is now in a bear market. The gold topped out at $1900.20 on September 5, 2011

[SunTrader 10]

My chart says $1921.05 on Tuesday Sept 6th, '11.

 

A few dollars either way doesn't matter but as you say it is a bear market because it is down 20% off the highs.

 

Perma bull never believed it could happen ........ ever.

[ntrader 10]

Friday sell off was one of the worst one-day declines for gold in many years. Mabe the concern over Cyprus gold sales made the investors run away from the yellow metal.

[Vinayak 10]

Gold Futures Fall $100 an Ounce to $1,401 in New York Trading

[zdo 20]

The assault on PM’s … in the absence of signal, often…

 

...

It may be more comfortable not to think about where we are headed.

It may be more comfortable to believe we are operating safely inside "design parameters"

...

 

 

 

???'s

Are peeps selling gold (etf's, etc) bcse they need the money… to meet margins, buy stocks, pay bills, ..., whatever… when people and institutions start running out of money, do they sell what there are buyers for instead of the crap with no bid ?

Are actual holders of physical PM’s selling their inventories?

Are physical and paper m’s any closer to the verge of breaking their link in price?

Are PM's and longer term energy cost projections really that correlated? The new 'energy boom' is ... As perception management of energy extraction costs and supply goes, so goes PM's prices?

 

I personally do not see any of the major ‘governments’ and central banks having anywhere near the control over their own bond markets anad that they hope you believe they have…

 

I am thanking the FED for giving us time and cheap PM’s.

Sub $24 USD for SI is what I've been (to add "patiently" would be bs ) waiting for... I hope it goes down even more...

I like the high and swelling levels of open shorts in PM’s, especially SI… and plan to accumulate deep into May… and again in July…

 

 

thx again bobc... but no thanks...

I'm trading (literally) gold for silver,...

...instead of selling both and buying paper...like GS

( heck I'd buy puts on GS before I'd buy GS ... and ps - …no, I’m not a perma bull)

[bobcollett 10]

When I post solid advice nobody says thank you.

And the advice is always in advance ... not hindsight.

I know why.

Every member (except Sun Trader) is a gold bull, so my posts are bad news.

 

Well, some good news.

Gold is up a bit today.Thats no V bottom.Just positive demand. And Goldman Sachs, who went short last week with a stop at 1450,

have moved their stop to 1400. So they want to lock in profits.

And SN ....sun spots... have dropped from 150 to 99, and we ALWAYS get a recovery after this drop.

But that does not mean you should be buying Gold.

Just trying to get out with a smaller loss.

 

And the latest on my favourite share.....GS

Goldman Sachs posts the latest good news for US banks ? Quartz

regards

bobc

[zdo 20]

When I post solid advice nobody says thank you.

And the advice is always in advance ... not hindsight.

I know why.

Every member (except Sun Trader) is a gold bull, so my posts are bad news.

...

bobc

 

bobc, Thank you. I appreciate your posts. (you seem scary serious though ... )

You didn't lose me, but maybe you lost 'them' at what Shakespeare terms "on the charge of a star!"

 

re You and SunTrader are the only PM bears...

???

I don’t know if the following qualifies me for that very short list or not. I believe that there is a time coming when PM’s will go through an extended period of time where they are almost useless for exchange or store of value… does that mean I’m a bear?

 

Speaking of short lists - You stated that inflation is over. What does that mean to you? That deflation is now here?

I have stated that both inflation AND deflation are here.

I know this site has degraded to news regurge content– Bloomberg refeeds, etc. – instead of individual’s thoughts and opinions, but it is curious no one questioned or disagreed with the possibility of either of our statements…

 

At my first series 3 brokerage job long long ago they put the east coast clients long and the west coast clients short (and v v). The bullion banks are old hands at playing similar games. And GS has long been successful at effectively doing the same with its counterparty desks

… and, it is also amazing, but no longer surprising to me, how such ‘establishmented’ enterprises can literally go poof… almost overnight…

 

…Once again: who is buying when Goldman's clients are selling … ?

Goldman Keeps Gold Short As It Lowers Stop Price, Even As It Is Stopped Out On Commodity Basket For 6% Loss | Zero Hedge

 

…

meanwhile… if I look at monthly charts of PMs 'spread' USindexes for the last twenty years, if I give due consideration to my perceptions of and thoughts about the trajectory of policy and the existing and threatened quantities of fiat, ...

etc… when I do such, I personally don’t want less inventory of PM’s . I want more.

 

… During the last major move I stopped into more long PM's at every.93 until AG passed 24 in 2010 and then stepped back out of specs on the .28's through the 40s. This time I waited for it to go back down to 24 before 'participating' . I hope it goes much lower against fiat to allow me to expand inventory on limit entries of PM’s (currently I’m all about AG not AU) ...At the same time, I see no need to view the recent move as simply “just a correction”… when obviously it’s not a typical “just a correction”… so I will be as patient (as is possible for me) and consider at each .67 whether to buy more AG than I did at the last .67 above… until I run to the end of scale...

 

zdo

[SunTrader 10]

I'm not a perma bear.

 

I'm a trader.

 

And I "don't believe the hype" from either camp.

[SunTrader 10]

Let's get ready to rumble :

 

Kass and Schiff Feud About Gold

[SIUYA 11]

… During the last major move I stopped into more long PM's at every.93 until AG passed 24 in 2010 and then stepped back out of specs on the .28's through the 40s. This time I waited for it to go back down to 24 before 'participating' . I hope it goes much lower against fiat to allow me to expand inventory on limit entries of PM’s (currently I’m all about AG not AU) ...At the same time, I see no need to view the recent move as simply “just a correction”… when obviously it’s not a typical “just a correction”… so I will be as patient (as is possible for me) and consider at each .67 whether to buy more AG than I did at the last .67 above… until I run to the end of scale...

 

zdo

 

Hi Zdo, what numbers are you referencing there..... (.93 passed 24)....(.28 through the 40s)

 

i dont trade or hold gold, and neither bull or a bear but if pushed to make a choice of opinion....i would be bearish as i dont think gold has any value, but equally so bullish as their might be enough people who need something alternative of value at particular times.....guess that makes me a trader. and i do love the arguements from both perm bulls and bears and the reality that probably 40% of the time they will be both be right....the other 20% is up for grabs.

The funny thing about it all is they are still arguing about what caused the recent move down when they really dont know, and then they still think they can predict the future as of course they do know about that :doh:

Edited April 17, 2013 by SIUYA

[zdo 20]

... Zdo, what numbers are you referencing there..... (.93 passed 24)....(.28 through the 40s)

 

 

SIUYA, it was just part of my stream of stupidity chatting it up… I should have just said I bought or sold more every time it went up or down a dollar per oz. – but didn’t do it on the .00 handles. Often, these ‘levels’ are based on harmonics, SR,etc… sometimes they are founded on irrational, self entertaining, superstit… first one usually sets subsequent ones...

While those numbers stay accessible in my memory for some reason, I only remember why I ‘chose’ them for the most current series… where the first limit ‘level’ to buy under 24 was at 23.67… snagged from an eyeball SR ‘attractor’ from long ago

In the previous series where I was selling silver as it went up through the 40’s, most likely first fill selling was at 40.28 so all the subsequent limits were placed at .28 “through the 40s”. I may have posted more about it back then...

Of much greater importance is overall sizing allocation and the rate of scale in and scale out for these kinds of positions… In that scaling out, my average price of the exit was not at the top … but it was a dam sight better than if I had been holding out for a 50 target - that never got hit ... then to wake up one morning with price back down near 43 and working on back down from there…

 

... i do love the arguements from both perm bulls and bears ...

 

I often feel like I’m only adding off topic material to this thread because for the most part the other posts are about short term ‘trade’ opportunities in PM paper… a game I only occasionally play…

and, btw, by my definitions you can only trade PM's... you can't really 'invest' in them... (although you could invest in an extraction or distribution enterprise)...

 

and re: Perma ‘s ... imo

‘Perma’bulls - hoard-valuing a purified metal is stupid.

:helloooo:

‘Perma’bears - trusting fiats to hold worth and value is even more stupider.

 

... still waiting for bobc to tell us if fiats are now 'safe' again and we're free from the need to make 12% just to keep up with 'money inflation'

... and if we're at risk of the uberfeared 'economic deflation', etc.

 

 

... they are still arguing about what caused the recent move down when they really dont know...

 

:rofl: Isn't the arguing preferable to an ‘in apparent shock’ lack of curiosity…to me, the arguing is better than “settling for nice neat stories and refusing to admit the truth runs much, much deeper…”

Down in the psyche of the individual, there still burns a flame | Jon Rappoport's Blog

[bobcollett 10]

Hi zdo

No offence meant ...are you a boy or a girl?

kind regards

bobc

[SIUYA 11]

SIUYA, it was just part of my stream of stupidity chatting it up… I should have just said I bought or sold more every time it went up or down a dollar per oz. – but didn’t do it on the .00 handles. Often, these ‘levels’ are based on harmonics, SR,etc… sometimes they are founded on irrational, self entertaining, superstit… first one usually sets subsequent ones...

 

...................

:rofl: Isn't the arguing preferable to an ‘in apparent shock’ lack of curiosity…to me, the arguing is better than “settling for nice neat stories and refusing to admit the truth runs much, much deeper…”

Down in the psyche of the individual, there still burns a flame | Jon Rappoport's Blog

 

thanks - i was scratching my head on the numbers - reminds me a lot of the 'baskets' some larger investors talk about and the rebalancing between 0 and 100% for various instruments (or -100 to +100%)

 

The arguments to me are not really arguments - they always seem to me to be either justification to themselves that their view is right despite the immediate reality that their positon is wrong, OR a sales pitch for what ever product they are pushing....that is what makes me laugh. I would often prefer the shock as its such a rare event - some talking head to say - 'f...k me i have no idea what happened, all i know is my PL got torn a new ass hole (or i aced it) and for that i am dissapointed (or pleased) and should assess what i am going to do now '- instead the part that is funny is that they still are predicting the future when they cant agree on the past and their opinions often have nothing to do with the reasons why.....

 

(its a rant of mine against sales folk)

 

As for the govt etc; i dont think its entirely off topic, but i am more talking about the recent move in gold and i dnt think that is so much govt influenced as some others might think. (not saying you do )

[zdo 20]

...No offence meant ...are you a boy or a girl?

 

 

I’m a (gold AND silver) homophrodite

... and I am very offended... you fkn bit ch :rofl:

 

...tell you what - I'll show you mine

if you'll 'splain' to "us if fiats are now 'safe' again and we're free from the need to make 12% just to keep up with 'money inflation'

... and if we're at risk of the uberfeared 'economic deflation', etc."

 

zdo

[bobcollett 10]

Just a quick thought for the unwashed.....

If Gold stays below 1400, then the Australian $ is a short against all currencies

Gold is Aussies third biggest export.

Wheres Ingot?

regards

bobc

[SIUYA 11]

Bob - Ozzztralia aint got no gold, its a myth we have you fellas beleiving (like the stuff in fort knox) (Apart the stuff we been hoarding in our knicker drawers) Just golden beaches nice girls and cold beers - all that other stuff we just been diggin it up and floggin it to the Chinese trying to get some dough before the govt really stuffs us up the kybosh. The rest is a fricken desert both geographically and culturally, so they can have it.

 

Given coal and iron ore have already been shot, and we are as racists as you can get - but the bloody education system is soooo good they keep coming here from all over (its our third largest export didnt ya know) and the aussie just wont take a dive - probably because of those flamming high interest rates above 2% - the galahs in Canbra dont know squat and will ruin it like them other idjits overseas in them older countries. No wonder everyone left there and came here.

 

if the ozzy falls it might get them tourists back here - except its sooo fircken expensive here now you have to sell your grandmother to get much more than a cold slab on a Friday nights shindig and the service aint much to boot....you want something, help yourself....

 

for that 2 cents - leave your money on the fridge and dont touch the bloody kingswood on the way out.

[zdo 20]

Update to the Update: The Attack on Gold -- Paul Craig Roberts - PaulCraigRoberts.org

What a stoopid old man ! ... and he implicates the owners of gov't, etc...

 

update to update to update of update ... of fiat in action… it only takes $24USD now to buy yourself

4 ‘real’ quarters and 4 ‘real’ dimes…

these relic’s values are ‘crashing’ everywhere… sell yours now! :snicksnick:

[zdo 20]

SUIYA,

 

Re: “the arguments…” and sales, etc.

Paper gold is fiat too!

Gordon Gekko's Blog: Buy PHYSICAL Gold. NOW: The Discount of a Lifetime: Or Why You Must Abandon the Fake Paper Gold Market

 

Thank goodness paper gold is officially sanctioned and regulated (haha)

[SIUYA 11]

gee i am confused now - i am not sure if the gold market went down because of;

the govt, (i think i will now cal them the govvt - with two v's - i decided to print another one),

the media scaring everyone (thats their job - but we are not sure who they represent anymore)

the retail mums and dads who panicked - beause they are the dumb money

the instiutions who benchmark

the banks and the likes of GS - just because they are evil

the paper shorts

the real shorts

the same paper shorts that helped pushed gold up in the first place

or simply those who took a wrong bet on gold and were late to the party, or overleveraged, or simply trading and dumping some long term holdings - eg; normal market stuff.

 

now i dont know if gold is a safe haven, or a bubble, real or paper, or simply all an illusion.

Too may opinions.....too many choices....i think i will stick to where the real wealth lies - wine! A new fund, that buys wine and stores it....2% and 20% fees.....

 

One thing i am pretty sure of is, most of this is not new and most of the perma bulls and bears are actually running a pyramid scheme of news and ideas if you think about it - they keep quoting each other in a circular fashion just to keep their dreams alive.

 

There is some delusion that the gold bulls seem to have that the $1600 an oz they paid is real but the price if they wanted to sell today is not....all good if you buy and hold for ever and it keeps you warm at night. (I wonder if in the new SHTF world what will be the currency of choice if the gold bulls dont sell to buy food )

[BlueHorseshoe 10]

....i think i will stick to where the real wealth lies - wine! A new fund, that buys wine and stores it....2% and 20% fees.....

 

The ticker VIN is already taken!

 

 

BlueHorseshoe

[zdo 20]

...One thing i am pretty sure of is, most of this is not new and most of the perma bulls and bears are actually running a pyramid scheme of news and ideas if you think about it - they keep quoting each other in a circular fashion just to keep their dreams alive.

 

 

Yes – and this ’swing’ and the PA leading up to it has a certain distinctive ‘AD campaign’ air about it… one of the possible reasons for the increase in charged chatter...

 

…and why have people suddenly stopped talking technicals in the thread ?…

imo, sudden parabolics deserve as much technical attn. as do range bound small swings, etc... anyways, I hope it’s not because of noise from what they think is exclusively gold-bug talk.

(I, for one, am not a ‘gold bug’ proper. I was a serious gold bug until 1993… then I got over it… although, yes, I still do rant about fiat a lot... just for fun here's some more sedition...http://www.oftwominds.com/blogapr13/stress4-13.html )

 

(I wonder if in the new SHTF world what will be the currency of choice if the gold bulls dont sell to buy food )

 

Gold is not good shtf money. Silver is much better. Getting proper quality and quantity of change back from a purchase made with even a small gold coin can be a real problem/give away...etc.

Gold is good post shtf capital/collateral.

Why are we even talking about this? All is well.

Gold crashes NeverEver lead 'recessions', etc.

Edited April 18, 2013 by zdo

[SIUYA 11]

…and why have people suddenly stopped talking technicals in the thread ?…

..........

Why are we even talking about this? All is well.

 

hook line and sinker

[DbPhoenix 42]

…and why have people suddenly stopped talking technicals in the thread ?

 

Lack of interest? :shrug:

[Ammeo 10]

Some Pro-Analysts are predicting a Bearish run which may go down to 1350...

It has now broken its long term support of 1540-1560 range and entering the 1400's...the bears should ready their guns for some action...

 

The Pro-Analysts were right...Gold did hit the $1350 price this week...i wish i had taken a short position in the metals, would have made a lot of money....im still waiting to have a good long entry into the metals cause Gold for me is a buy on dips thing...