Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Recommended Posts

..................................................... The real question as I review today is, should I have had a bit more short bias than I did? ..........................................................

 

jd,

 

You need to know your tactical situation at all times to be a Trader.

 

Without this awareness a Chartist cannot evolve into a Trader.

Yesterday for instance was a day when the ask-bid spread was dropping and price could not breakout to the upside ..... this is an unmistakable short bias to put it into your language.... just plot the cum ask-bid spread for the RTH to see what I am talking about.

 

Charting programs like market delta and Pred's program may be attractive because they appear to hone in on a single tic, but while your attention is being drawn into this detail, the big picture is passing you by.

For example, you referred to a trade on the left edge as "not bad not good, small loss" ... well, it was a bad entry because you did not wait until the shorts were washed out and the longs began building.... and you know this!!

 

I know that I bang on about this, but Trading is a competitive sport because all the characteristics are the same ... whether you are concentrating on the next swing in golf or the next point in tennis or the next play in rugby, you must always have a tape playing behind this point of concentration that contains the tactical situation of the game to date and it is constantly updating itself.

 

This sense of focus running over the top of a constantly playing situational tape is what will make you a great Trader ... you must try to enable both at once .. it cannot be an either/or situation otherwise you will wind up on the sideline analysing charts for the rest of your life and telling yourself 'not good, not bad'

 

Detach yourself from what you are trying to do and you are already halfway there.

We are meant to be Traders and not Chartists, unless of course we prefer the safety of charting .....

good luck

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Charting programs like market delta and Pred's program may be attractive because they appear to hone in on a single tic, but while your attention is being drawn into this detail, the big picture is passing you by.

For example, you referred to a trade on the left edge as "not bad not good, small loss" ... well, it was a bad entry because you did not wait until the shorts were washed out and the longs began building.... and you know this!!

 

I know that I bang on about this, but Trading is a competitive sport because all the characteristics are the same ... whether you are concentrating on the next swing in golf or the next point in tennis or the next play in rugby, you must always have a tape playing behind this point of concentration that contains the tactical situation of the game to date and it is constantly updating itself.

 

This sense of focus running over the top of a constantly playing situational tape is what will make you a great Trader ... you must try to enable both at once .. it cannot be an either/or situation otherwise you will wind up on the sideline analysing charts for the rest of your life and telling yourself 'not good, not bad'

 

Detach yourself from what you are trying to do and you are already halfway there.

We are meant to be Traders and not Chartists, unless of course we prefer the safety of charting .....

good luck

 

John, thank you for your reply, I think you have some very valid points here. I only disagree about one point and so I will do that first -- not all shifts in momentum occur after a washout. Thus, the fact that I did not wait for one does not invalidate the entry. What was important was that my risk was managed, and I put myself into a position that had a reasonably good (by my belief system) chance of popping at least a point or two for a scale. One other minor difference of opinion -- you refer to cumulative delta (I think that's what you mean by bid-ask spread). It was not particularly "special" yesterday and it was actually up quite well off the low through much of the midday, so nothing for me personally to glean from that. Perhaps you can plot your chart showing what you mean because maybe I am not on the same page with you here.

 

Other than that, I agree with you very much. I am not an avid user of the type of chart I posted, but I do use it if the information can be supportive and helpful. In this case it was extremely so. However, as with managing any small (but important) details, one has the potential to get lost in the trees and miss the forest. I do think I missed the tactical details on this one, but actually a mismanaged trade is the source of the issue. I sold 41.50 around 12:45 ET for the very reason that the market had failed to break above 42s and the balance was occurring between 38 and 42. Thus, tactically I think the premise was spot on at this moment. However, the mistake was covering too early, instead of waiting for 37s as I originally planned to do. In so doing, it made it too easy to look for a bounce at the bottom when in fact continuation began to become clearer.

 

So tactically, I was on at first, and then lost it because of a mismanaged trade.

 

John, I would love to hear more thoughts from you, specifically about:

 

1) Charting vs. Trading

2) Detaching from what we are trying to do.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
For example, you referred to a trade on the left edge as "not bad not good, small loss" ... well, it was a bad entry because you did not wait until the shorts were washed out and the longs began building.... and you know this!!

 

After reviewing this trade and thinking about this, I agree with you here John. My intuition was not really 100% with me here and I was too early. Thanks for calling it to my attention.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

OK - LESSON 1 - BUY & SELL PROGRAMS

 

One of the tricky things about reading order flow on the ES is the number of correlated/inversely correlated markets it has incestuous relationships with. As with any correlated market, people play off those correlations with arbitrage trading.

 

With the ES you have, amongst other things.

Correlation with the big S&P

Correlation with the index/stocks in the index

Futures options

Inverse correlation with the treasuries

 

This means that at any point, someone can come in and arb these markets if they think that have gotten out of line. With any arb trade on the emini, only HALF of the trade is placed on the emini itself. The other half will be eslewhere.

 

The trade will be exited when the normal market correlation is back in place or the pain of the increase in divergence from the norm is such that the trade is killed.

 

In an arb trade, the trader does not care whatsoever which way the market goes after entry. So after buying 5000 e-mini contracts, they might be quite happy to see the market go down as long as the spread between that & the correlated market narrows. These trades therefore are without directional bias. This is important.

 

If you look at indexarb.com, you will see a daily report on the premium (the difference between ths futures & the spot index) and the buy/sell programs that will likely be initiated when the premium reaches that level.

 

As an example, for today, if the premium is -2.36 then SPY will be purchased and an S&P500 buy program will be initiated.

 

Note that this is just based on the premium, not the direction of the market.

 

So, a buy program is just half of an index arb trade. It is non-directional.

 

What you will very often see is a downward market moving down and you get to a point where it halts and a lot of orders are absorbed at the bid. It looks like someone is trying to hold the market. Then it will blow right through that level to a point below where the same thing occurs again.

 

It sort of gets you thinking who would bs stupid enough to stand in front of the market, absorb all of those orders before getting run over. Well - it's not stupid, it's arbitrage.

 

Anyway - I bring this up because of all the "Sell programs executing" nonsense on this thread. Sell/Buy programs are merely half of an arbitrage trade. They are neutral in terms of being a predictor of future direction.

 

When you see sellers or buyers pile in, it has nothing at all to do with buy programs and sell programs. In fact, the competition for these arb opportunities is fierce and as a retailer, you really have no way to benefit from them.

 

HERE ENDS LESSON 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
After reviewing this trade and thinking about this, I agree with you here John. My intuition was not really 100% with me here and I was too early. Thanks for calling it to my attention.

 

gm jd,

 

Well, your post is an example of detachment in that you have removed yourself from any stray feelings, leaving only the desire to succeed and win and do what it requires of you.

 

As for Chartists and Traders .... I think that People assume that as their analytical skills improve it will follow that they become good Traders.... this is not a belief that I hold and I call them Chartists..

 

To me, Traders bring a highly competitive attitude to this game .... they want to win and they want to win big .... therefore they will do what is required including changing themselves into the Person that they need to become in order to win big.

They can feel it in their bodies and even taste it .... that is why it is called 'a burning desire' I imagine

Yes they need analytical skills and they will acquire them ... the trick here is to have just the right amount of analysis ... not to little and most certainly not to much.

Each piece of information is an added burden to carry (like too much weight on a marathon runner) therefore the Trader only wants to take on board information that he will use all the time

It is no good having information on the basis that "sometimes I use it and sometimes I don't depending upon the conditions" because now the Trader has set himself up for failure by adding an extra decision level when it is not required.

 

A Chartist will find acquiring tactical awareness very difficult or maybe impossible. ... (this is what I call it and I see here on TL that it is called Context which must be the Industry term)

This is because it is a real time issue and becomes obvious in hindsight to the point of being self serving.

As I have mentioned before, it is a tape playing continuously in the back of the Traders mind, guiding him in entry/management/exit of each trade.

 

So a Trader has his mind running tactical awareness continuously with a heightened tape kicking into gear only when it receives the nod that a possible buy/sell zone is coming into play.

This is important to grasp, because if the Trader leaves himself in a constant state of alert, looking for buy/sell zones he will stuff up and then burn out ... in short he will become bloody useless to himself and wind up a great big failure until he re-programs his mind. (try thinking of your brain/mind as a muscle that needs training)

 

Now in order to make tactical awareness simple and natural the Trader opens a chart

say V25,000 or greater that displays price, horizontal lines (zones) showing supply/demand and cum ask-bid spread or delta as it seems to be called ... this delta needs to be accumulated to infinity or a large number and centred on zero.

At a glance the Trader can see price direction and delta direction plus supply/demands zones ... that is all he needs to be tactically aware of the situation.

 

His entry/management/exit screen set at say V2,000 -5,000 is a slight variation in that the delta is coded to zero itself once every 24 hours ...Glbx open, midnight, RTH open ...the choice is his.

The Trader now begins to accumulate delta at various times of the day ... for example at 11am ET it may be -7,000 one day or +25,000 another day ... and after the RTH open it may cross the zero line three times one day and on another day it never crosses the zero line.

Throw in the corresponding price movement plus the supply/demand zones and our Trader now has an enormous tactical advantage over the market and he is going to exploit it for all it is worth.

But wait because it just gets better.

By watching the momentum washing in and out of the market, he can time his trades so that they take full advantage of other peoples trades ..... he cares not whether other people are big/small/fat/skinny because he is only watching the momo washing in and out

Yes, if the transition of momo from long to short is smooth, he may well speculate that it is the work of big traders and therefore this leg will perform well .

Also, the other benefit of waiting for momo is that if the trade does not fire off quickly then the Trader can scratch it for a tic or two profit and re-enter again...then at the end of the day he finds that his scratch trades cover themselves... win/loss melts into the amateurish past to be replaced by win/scratch.

 

Now the odds that the Trader holds over the market are unassailable providing he remains unemotionally detached

 

It is Xmas and that is why I have made this post ... take from it anything or nothing.

If any Reader is new to this game I would urge you to focus only on price until you are constantly profitable and then consider adding the spread.

I know you willnot/cannot do this because greed will cloud your mind and you will convince yourself that you are not part of the 99.5% who will fail, and you will rush into this and FU ... hopefully you will start over again a much wiser person

Frankly I hope everyone succeeds but I know this is not the case and the statistics do not lie

 

good luck, goodbye and merry Xmas

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

you did not wait until the shorts were washed out and the longs began building....

 

 

I have seen several references to this type of thing recently and was wondering if someone could maybe clarify what is meant by this and how do you go about determining that shorts or longs have "washed out"?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Dunno how john does this..we had 23K contracts accumulated at market on drive up... that's expensive if those buyers didn't have a reason to go to market. That's 23k*12.5 in cost. This tells us something... We had 6k-10k liquidated so far on drive down...

 

I have seen several references to this type of thing recently and was wondering if someone could maybe clarify what is meant by this and how do you go about determining that shorts or longs have "washed out"?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Dunno how john does this..we had 23K contracts accumulated at market on drive up... that's expensive if those buyers didn't have a reason to go to market. That's 23k*12.5 in cost. This tells us something... We had 6k-10k liquidated so far on drive down...

 

 

Yes that is the principle I work to as well ... our numbers don't quite line up, but our thinking does and that is the key to it.

 

The spread needs to convert into tics in order to show efficiency ... when there is a difference then it indicates a wall of limits ahead especially at a supply/demand zone.

This means move with caution.

When the price rolls as the spread deepens it means the the limit wall has been broken.

I think that Pred calls my limit wall 'Limit Resistance'

btw ...Much of my terminology is wrong as it is home grown. I did not come to Retail Trading with trade experience, I just simply brought an attitude with me based on winning, but gradually I am straightening up my terminology.

This is a fascinating game and I love it ... and yes I got off to a shaky start just like most other people.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

john.. nothing wrong with terminology.. just added at 18 btw

 

I refer to Limit Resistance in 2 ways... 1. Limit Resistance as high volume transacted on a level, and 2. as book imbalances.. they aren't really the same thing but similar principle

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Dunno how john does this..we had 23K contracts accumulated at market on drive up... that's expensive if those buyers didn't have a reason to go to market. That's 23k*12.5 in cost. This tells us something... We had 6k-10k liquidated so far on drive down...

 

Yes that is the principle I work to as well

 

Appreciate the responses, however maybe I'm a little dense, but I'm still not clear on what is being described when someone references "the shorts (longs) have washed out"? Could you guys expand on this a bit?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

John, a couple of thoughts and questions.

 

Now in order to make tactical awareness simple and natural the Trader opens a chart say V25,000 or greater that displays price, horizontal lines (zones) showing supply/demand and cum ask-bid spread or delta as it seems to be called ... this delta needs to be accumulated to infinity or a large number and centred on zero.

At a glance the Trader can see price direction and delta direction plus supply/demands zones ... that is all he needs to be tactically aware of the situation.

 

His entry/management/exit screen set at say V2,000 -5,000 is a slight variation in that the delta is coded to zero itself once every 24 hours ...Glbx open, midnight, RTH open ...the choice is his.

The Trader now begins to accumulate delta at various times of the day ... for example at 11am ET it may be -7,000 one day or +25,000 another day ... and after the RTH open it may cross the zero line three times one day and on another day it never crosses the zero line.

 

I'm curious as to how you use delta. It looks like perhaps you wait for delta to turn in the direction of the trade you are wishing to enter. Sometimes this works, but sometimes it means you're jumping in quite late and prone to getting caught holding the bag. For me delta is an interesting piece of information to look at, but it could certainly fall under the category of things you refer to as an "extra decision level." Generally speaking, I want to be long when delta is up and vice versa, as only market orders can actually move a market, but it's not quite that simple.

 

In the quotes below, you also talk about watching momentum. So basically you have a context ('tactical ..'), a map, if you will, using price and/or volume history. But really that does not matter if the market does not agree with what you consider to be an area to watch for a buy or sell. So you watch for momentum using... tape/dom/other? Some people consider even that to be too myopic, much as you said footprint charts are seeing trees instead of the forest. In other words, many tools can be used to watch for momentum/order flow/whatever you want to call it, and as long as one knows where he is on the race track, then they all have a similar use--trade entry/exit confirmation.

 

But wait because it just gets better.

By watching the momentum washing in and out of the market, he can time his trades so that they take full advantage of other peoples trades .....

 

But generally if taking the other side when others are puking, you have not waited for delta to turn; or, perhaps, you wait for an extreme push and get in early, don't know until you answer the above.

 

Yes, if the transition of momo from long to short is smooth, he may well speculate that it is the work of big traders and therefore this leg will perform well .

 

Not sure about this, can you elaborate?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm curious as to how you use delta. It looks like perhaps you wait for delta to turn in the direction of the trade you are wishing to enter. Sometimes this works, but sometimes it means you're jumping in quite late and prone to getting caught holding the bag.

 

I'm not John - but couldn't the above just be seen as setting bias?

 

If the market moves down, keep bias short until a move up occurs that carries a significant delta increase.

 

That'll be 2-4 points and 10k+ contracts delta on the ES. As long as you aren't in a narrow range day, heading into lunchtime etc. You should be able to still get a decent entry 2 points or so above the low.

 

The alternative is catching the low itself which is tricky because you don't need to take many shots at the low (or high) before ruining your day.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
gm jd,

 

Well, your post is an example of detachment in that you have removed yourself from any stray feelings, leaving only the desire to succeed and win and do what it requires of you.

 

As for Chartists and Traders .... I think that People assume that as their analytical skills improve it will follow that they become good Traders.... this is not a belief that I hold and I call them Chartists.

 

Excellent post, John - not just the above but all of it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Predictor's running commentary is moved to its own thread:

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/e-mini-futures-trading-laboratory/15311-day-trading-e-mini-futures-predictor-8.html

 

Let's keep this thread to its original intent:

 

"Okay, so much like the "Reading Charts in Real Time" thread, this thread will be for sharing ideas about future price moves of all the e-mini index futures."

 

thx

MMS

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Similar Content

    • By Quantower
      The main goal of this thread is to show what Power Trades is and how it works in different markets. We will show some patterns on the ES and NQ futures, as well as discuss possible improvements to this functionality.
      What is Power Trades?
      Ok, first we will consider what the Power Trades is and how it finds zones.
      Power Trades shows the zones with the execution of a large number of orders in a very short time, which will affect the price change with a high probability.
      Here are a few examples of how it looks like


      How it finds zones?
      There is a continuous process of placing, changing and executing orders in the market. All this affects the price change and the expectations of traders regarding the future price.
      When a large order appears at a certain level, the price is more likely to come to this order and it will be executed because the market is always looking for levels with liquidity. This already applies to the order flow and the mechanics of orders matching, so we will omit the principles on which the orders are matched.
      It is only important to understand that "abnormal events" occur in the market at certain times. Execution of a significant volume of orders in a very short time is one of such events.
      The Power Trades Scanner has several important settings that directly affect the results:

      Total Volume — the minimum value of the volume that should be traded during the specified time interval
      Time Interval, sec — the time over which the Total Volume should be traded
      Basis Volume Interval, sec — this parameter shows how much % took the traded volume in the total volume for the specified time.
      Zone Height, ticks — this parameter will show only those zones where the height is less than or equal to the specified value (in ticks).
      Level2 level count — the number of levels that are involved in the calculation of Imbalance and the Level 2 Ratio column in the table of results.
      Filter by Delta,% — the parameter will show zones that have a delta value greater than or equal to that specified in the setting. The value must be specified by the module, so the table will show both positive and negative delta values. We recommend paying attention to the zones with the delta above 50% (taking into account the specifics of each trading instrument).
      For example, let's set the Total Volume of 2000 contracts and Time Interval in 3 seconds on the E-mini SP500 futures. This means that the scan will be based on the available history and will show on the chart only those zones that have such a volume for the specified time.

      Additionally, it is worth to set a delta value to filter out the zones with one-side trades. The more delta value, the high probability that the price will reverse.

      So, as a starting point about this scanner, I think this information will be enough
    • By makuchaku
      Hi everyone,
      This is my maiden analysis using volume profile - so please don't hesitate to share your feedback.
      As per the attached analysis, I think that SPY is primed for a short - for many reasons
      - Multiple strong rejection of long positions exist at Resistance R1 and R2 : seems like sellers defending their positions
      - Very strong short volume seen at R2 : further signifying sellers who are ready at that level
      However, once the price reaches Support S1, there seems to be a strong buying sentiment which has rejected previous shorts. You can see trading ranges & pullbacks to S1 where buyers and sellers seem to agree on a price range, often leading to a buyer dominance.
      What do you think?

    • By TraderJoe
      Hey All,
      does anyone sell Volume Profile Indicator for NT8.
       
      Regards
  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date : 18th January 2022. Market Update – January 18 – BOJ Stands Pat.Asian markets weaker as BOJ stays put (-0.1% interest rate) with stimulus package intact, raises inflation target to 1.1% and growth to 3.8% for 2022. Kuroda: “Will ease monetary policy without hesitation as needed, there has been a notable improvement in the economy.” USD firmer, Yields moved up with US 2-yr over key 1.0%, 10-yr over 1.8%. Oil higher – Saudi’s retaliate, attacking Yemen and Gold holds at $1815.   USD (USDIndex 95.25) holds on to gains from Friday, pushing to 953.8 earlier. US Yields 10-yr moved higher again and trades at 1.818%. Equities – US closed yesterday. Nikkei -0.27% – USA500 FUTS lower again at 4633. USOil – Spiked over $84.70 as very tight supply, Saudi’s retaliation on Sanaa and NK continued firing of missiles unsettles sentiment. Gold – holds at $1815 from a test of $1823. Bitcoin another down day, tested to $41,600, back to 42,200 now. FX markets – EURUSD back to 1.1400, USDJPY now 114.80 tested 115.00 earlier, Cable back to test 200hr MA 1.3620, +20 pips after UK jobs data. Overnight – UK Earnings in line at 4.2%, Unemployment (4.1%) and Claims better than expected. PBOC deputy governor says will keep yuan exchange rate basically stable.European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -19 ticks, Treasury futures are underperforming. Stocks across Asia struggled with the renewed rise in yields and DAX and FTSE 100 futures are also down -0.3% and -0.2% respectively. Inflation risks and central bank outlook will be dominating the discussion in coming months.Today – German ZEW, Empire State Manu. Index & Earnings from Goldman Sachs. Day 2 of DAVOS (on-line).Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADJPY (again) (+0.34% again) Rallied all day over 91.73 (Thursdays high) and onto test 92.00. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram higher & above 0 line. RSI 68 rising, H1 ATR 0.131 Daily ATR 0.804.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date : 17th January 2022. Market Update – January 17 – USD Holds onto gains.Big bank Earnings disappointed on Friday, the USD recovered from 8-week lows and Fedspeakers continued to worry about inflation as hawkish tones increased. Stocks recovered early losses, Yields moved up to close the week as Oil moved up and Gold moved down. China’s PBOC delivered the first rate cut in a while as signs of slow down persist and Covid cases once again spread.   USD (USDIndex 95.20) holds on to gains from Friday. Bouncing from 8-week lows under 94.60. US Yields 10-yr moved higher again to close at 1.772%. Equities – USA500 +3.82 (+0.08%) at 4662 as Financials weighed following Earnings from JPM (-6.15%) Blackrock (-2.19%) and WFC (+3.68) Tech & Energies lead recovery into long weekend. USA500 FUTS lower at 4652. USOil – Spiked over $84.00 as markets look beyond Covid spikes with very tight supply. Gold – settled at $1816 from a test of 1830 again. Now at $1822. Bitcoin support once again at $42,000, Friday, back to 42,800 now. FX markets – EURUSD back to 1.1465, USDJPY now 114.40 at 115.85, Cable back to 1.33680. Overnight – Chinese GDP and industrial production exceeded expectations, whilst retail sales disappointed. UK house price data from the Nationwide was strong. The Chairman of Credit Suisse has resigned due to Covid breaches.Week Ahead A Bank of Japan meeting which concludes on Tuesday, UK inflation data on Wednesday and Australian jobs figures on Thursday. Earnings from GS, BAC, MS, P&G, NetflixEuropean Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -36 ticks, alongside broad losses in US futures, which points to a further rise in yields across Europe. Stock market futures are trading mixed, with DAX and FTSE 100 futures posting gains of 0.4% and 0.2% respectively, while an 0.4% decline in the NASDAQ is leading US futures lower. Central bank outlooks and inflation expectations remain in focus, the Fed is gearing up for a round of central bank hikes this year that will also impact the outlook for BoE and ECB amid hopes that the pandemic phase of Covid-19 will start to fade.Today – Little data from Europe & All US markets closed for MLK Day.Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADJPY (+0.34%) Rallied from 90.50 lows on Friday to 91.37 (Fridays high) now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram higher & above 0 line. RSI 64 & rising, H1 ATR 0.121 Daily ATR 0.794.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • GOLD FLUCTUATES BELOW $1,830 OVERHEAD RESISTANCE, MAY SLUMP TO $1,800 LO Key Resistance Levels: $1,900, $1,950, $2000 Key Support Levels: $1,750, $1, 700,$1,650 Gold (XAUUSD) Long-term Trend: Bullish Gold (XAUUSD) is in a sideways move but may slump to $1,800 low. Gold is retracing as it faces rejection at the high of $1,830. However, if price breaks the resistance level, the market will rise and retest the previous high of $1,860. Meanwhile, on January 14 uptrend; a retraced candle body tested the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. The retracement suggests that Gold will rise but reverse at level 1.272 Fibonacci extension or $1,840.86. XAUUSD – Daily Chart Daily Chart Indicators Reading: Gold is at level 55 of the Relative Strength Index for period 14. The market has reached the uptrend zone and further upside is likely. The 21-day SMA and the 50-day SMA are sloping upward indicating an uptrend. Gold (XAUUSD) Medium-term bias: Ranging On the 4 hour chart, the Gold price is in a sideways trend. The gold price fluctuates below the $1,828 overhead resistance. The sideways trend has been ongoing since December 21. Each time the market retest the overhead resistance, the selling pressure will resume. The current downtrend is likely to extend to the low of $1,804 before upward. XAUUSD – 4 Hour Chart 4-hour Chart Indicators Reading XAUUSD is below the 80% range of the daily stochastic. The market is in the bearish momentum. The 21-day SMA and the 50-day SMA are sloping upward indicating the uptrend. General Outlook for Gold (XAUUSD) Gold’s (XAUUSD) price is declining as it may slump to $1,800 low. The market is fluctuating below the $1,828 resistance zone. The Gold price is falling to the downside. The upward move will resume if price finds support above the $1,800.   Source: https://learn2.trade 
    • USOIL REACHES AN OVERBOUGHT REGION, MAY FACE REJECTION AT $85.39 Key Resistance Levels: $80.00, $84.00, $88.00 Key Support Levels: $66.00,$62.200,$58.00 USOIL (WTI) Long-term Trend: Bullish USOIL has been in an uptrend but it may face rejection at $85.39. The index is retesting the previous high of $85.39. In previous price action in October and November, the bulls failed to break above the overhead resistance. Meanwhile, on December 9 uptrend; a retraced candle body tested the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. The retracement indicates that WTI will rise to level 2.0 Fibonacci extension or $81.61. From the price action, buyers have broken above the Fibonacci extension and have reached a high of $84. USOIL – Daily Chart Daily Chart Indicators Reading: USOIL is at level 70 of the Relative Strength Index period 14. It indicates that the index is in the overbought region of the market. The current uptrend is likely to face rejection at the recent high. Besides, sellers will emerge to push prices down. The index price is above the 21-day SMA and 50 –day SMA which indicates a further upward move. USOIL (WTI) Medium-term bias: Bullish On the 4-hour chart, the index is in an uptrend. WTI price has broken above the resistance at level 83.00. Meanwhile, on December 12 uptrend; a retraced candle body tested the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. The retracement indicates that WTI will rise but reverse at level 1.278 Fibonacci extension or $84.22. USOIL – 4 Hour Chart 4-hour Chart Indicators Reading The index is above the 80% range of the daily stochastic. The market has reached the overbought region. Sellers are likely to emerge to push prices down. The 21-day and 50-day SMAs are sloping upward indicating the uptrend. The uptrend will continue to the upside as long as price bars are above the moving averages. General Outlook for USOIL (WTI) USDOL has reached the overbought region of the market but may face rejection at $85.39. The current uptrend is likely to terminate at the previous price level of the market. WTI is trading at $84.39 at press time. Source: https://learn2.trade 
    • ANNUAL FORECAST FOR EURJPY (2022) EURJPY Annual Forecast – Price Is Set to Scale New Heights With a Bullish Flag Formation The annual forecast for EURJPY is for it to scale new heights, having conformed to a bullish flag formation. The bullish flag formation, an offshoot of the triangle pattern, began towards the tail end of 2020 as bulls began to exercise dominance in the market. The market began to recover from the 116.910 support level in May 2020. It pulled back when it first hit the upper border of its triangle pattern and surged through it at the second time of asking, thereby leading to the creation of the flag pattern. EURJPYJPY Significant Zones Supply Zones: 134.150, 140.650, 149.010 Demand Zones: 113.920, 116.910, 127.630 EURJPY Long Term Plan: Bullish A bearish impact is visible annually in the market, notably since 2013. Every time EURJPY makes a bullish move, the move is cut off prematurely and it always leads to a plunge back around the 113.920 demand level. This happened from 2013 to 2016, and then from 2017 to 2020. The result is a triangle-tapered market structure. By June 2020, the price hit the 116.910 demand level and began another ascent, but this time, it eventually broke the triangle pattern on 2021 New Year’s Day. The flag pole was formed as the price surged from 120.920 and was stopped abruptly at 134.150. Subsequently, EURJPY began cranking through a downward channel. This continued into the year 2022. The market forecast is for an upward liquidity flow. The upward signal of the MA Cross is still very valid. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator is showing dwindling bullish bars. This is due to the downward ranging in the market. Its signal lines remain above the zero level. EURJPY Medium Term Plan: Bearish In early 2022, prices are set to drop after hitting the upper border of the ranging channel. The MA Cross is directed down-sideways to show the undulating nature of the current market. The same can be said for the MACD indicator. The annual forecast is towards the end of the year 2022 into early 2023 when the bullish flag pattern is anticipated to drive the market upward towards 140.650. Source: https://learn2.trade 
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.