Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[Predictor 11]

Well, it turned out that trade I called at EOD actually would have been good for another run down without that big of a stop -- although it didn't look like it yesterday.

 

I'm reluctant to buy here. I always do a self-check b4 trading to see how strong I am. I find if I'm not strong then I lose even when right. Today, not feeling so well.

 

If the market retraces to 67 and I see the opportunity then I may short. I am thinking we may be heading much lower to maybe 45 or so but probably not today. I would look to sell from about 65.50 to 68.50. A more aggressive short from 63.50 could also make sense for me.

Edited July 20, 2012 by Predictor

[Predictor 11]

Marketed in at 63.50... look to see what develops shorts

 

Notice the 64.25 generated a stop run but selling isn't making new lows.

 

Market is showing some FA from short 64.25 where stop generated, drive back to lows still seems possible.

 

Take profit. Not making new lows. Took profit too soon. Q's are making new lows. Interesting give that GOOG rallied hard.

 

May be done for day.. not confident to short or long here Not much room for long scalp and short trade didn't run as far I'd like to see.

 

Bidding for long scalp. last trade of day. No fill on that. Changes very quick! Now it looks like my take profit wasn't so bad.

Edited July 20, 2012 by Predictor

[Predictor 11]

I'm short again. tried post but fail. getting ready to take profit probably.. could get a large run down. Looking for 58.50ish before I take profit. Stopped out for a profit on last trade.. pushed it slightly too far.

Edited July 20, 2012 by Predictor

[bakrob99 11]

...all that matters is whether our decision is in tune with the future direction of the market...

For me personally, all I need is some kind of indication from the market of its intention. I don't need a location, although that certainly is preferable. ..

 

Here's one way I get conviction, direction and and idea of when to hold and where to exit.

 

Setup:

 

Notice the Down sloping (red) Median Line.

 

 

Here it is about 3 hours later:

 

 

When you have a trend and an very good median line that is in tune witht he frequency of the market - it can be extremely helpful in mentally keeping you in a trade.

 

Three great shorts for me in the NQ today.

[Predictor 11]

I'm bidding long here. Looking for a possible move back to 62.

 

We could rally all the way into the close.. I'd say 62-64 is possible.

Edited July 20, 2012 by Predictor

[bakrob99 11]

I took the trade as well. Actually - in both the ES and the NQ. I am outof theNQ and trailing stop in ES. Could go higher than 1362.00 Looking for a bigger move as the market has had a hard time (at least in the ES) going down today and I think we might have some bargain hunters buying down here. Just a hunch.

 

BUT keep in mind it is a counter trend trade so unless the low of the day is in - it will be stopped.

 

Update: Massive MF Sell pgm stopped at -2 ticks

Edited July 20, 2012 by bakrob99

[bakrob99 11]

FYI, I have a calendar reminder set for OEX Friday's that trading in the NQ or TF is often better than the ES. Too much hedging - arbs etc going on in the ES making the price action choppy. NQ has been much better for me today.

[bakrob99 11]

Probably too much to expect any rally when everybody has gone home. Hey ... don't forget to turn out the lights.

 

Friday afternoon choperama. Luv it.

[Predictor 11]

Stopped out. Heavy selling. Small loss. I admit I feel pretty good about that one. I took like 4-6 tick loss on that trade total. Huge sell orders came in at 58.50.. i was pretty sure it was over then... I took 1-2 more ticks.. could have saved myself that. I had the opportunity to break even a few times but I could have lost more.

 

So, given everything.. I feel good taking a small loss. It was a very unusual day with limit trader just taking all inventory on both sides.

Edited July 20, 2012 by Predictor

[goodoboy 10]

No reason to pass on a good trade because you happen to have guessed wrong about where the market will react

QUOTE]

 

I agree with you there. Just reading this thread is so helpful. I will start posting trades on this thread when I take it, with reason for the trade. I normally look for 1-2 trades per day, if I see reason. As far as learning the inside and out of the market, it will just take daily experience. I am having fun!!

 

I will start posting my trades with evidence here starting next week.

 

Thanks,

[habi 10]

Here's one way I get conviction, direction and and idea of when to hold and where to exit.

 

Setup:

 

Notice the Down sloping (red) Median Line.

 

When you have a trend and an very good median line that is in tune witht he frequency of the market - it can be extremely helpful in mentally keeping you in a trade.

 

 

Unfortunately, I can't see your charts in this post, just two red crosses. I like the Pitchfork-Tool too, but I have seen, that you use it sometimes a little different. It seems to me, that you focus very much on the median line.

 

I have another question about MoM. I'm now reading the kindle version of Daltons book. He talks always about a "Nontrend Day" when it should be a Tredday in my opinion. For example:

 

The thin elongated Nontrend Day Profile, shown in Figure 4-22, is a good example of a one time-frame market

 

Is it just wrong in de Kindle version, or do I have an uncorrect view of the therm Nontrend day?

[bakrob99 11]

Unfortunately, I can't see your charts in this post, just two red crosses.

 

You need to be logged in to see the charts.

 

... I like the Pitchfork-Tool too, but I have seen, that you use it sometimes a little different. It seems to me, that you focus very much on the median line...

 

The median line is the line that the market achieves 80% of the time. Focusing on it is having the odds in your favour.

 

 

... The thin elongated Nontrend Day Profile, shown in Figure 4-22, is a good example of a one time-frame market

 

Trend days have elongated profiles, non-trend are shaped like a bell curve.

[habi 10]

You need to be logged in to see the charts.

 

Thanks for your answer. I'm logged in and see all your other charts. Just the two in Post #4704 are not visible for me.

[bakrob99 11]

Thanks for your answer. I'm logged in and see all your other charts. Just the two in Post #4704 are not visible for me.

 

 

Ask a moderator. They show up for me.

 

BTW, I posted them to show that I had early in the move placed a median line on the 1500volume chart which for the rest of the day was a very good indication of where price would run into resistance and support.

 

When you get this type of confirmation, it makes it easier to hold the trade and even to increase size.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Ask a moderator. They show up for me.

 

BTW, I posted them to show that I had early in the move placed a median line on the 1500volume chart which for the rest of the day was a very good indication of where price would run into resistance and support.

 

When you get this type of confirmation, it makes it easier to hold the trade and even to increase size.

 

If you're talking about #4704, I don't see any images either.

[bakrob99 11]

Reposting image

 

 

I had this ML on my chart at the open and was able to use it as a reference for the entire day.

[Predictor 11]

Today is a day I'd like to be short but with the extent of sell off, I feel its higher risk. I tried to get short last night at 40ish but didn't like my positioning. I may just sit out today. If we get a retrace back to 50ish then I might attempt a short from that level but I don't see that happening... unlikely

[goodoboy 10]

Morning,

 

I took a trade this morning long at 8:25am at 1339.25 and stop right at LOD , 1337.50. so minues 2.25 My reasoning for the long was:

 

1.1339.50 was a double bottom of support from 7/16/2012

2. Also lower indicators (RSI, and Slow Stochastic Oscillator) was oversold on 5,15,60 min.

 

Mistake:

1. Not waiting for the opening bell and letting the market decides it way first. I written this down in my notes several times to not trade before the bell, but tried to catch a bottom.

2. I should have confirm buy signal on Slow Stochastic Oscillator on 15 min chart like i normally do, but i didn't.

[Predictor 11]

Bidding in the 1330s but may cancel... I don't like to counter trend on days like today...

 

Stops run at 1334.50... DOW looks to be strongest today so far. Still holding

Edited July 23, 2012 by Predictor

[Predictor 11]

I've marketed in at 1335.. will see how it goes.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Morning,

 

I took a trade this morning long at 8:25am at 1339.25 and stop right at LOD , 1337.50. so minues 2.25 My reasoning for the long was:

 

1.1339.50 was a double bottom of support from 7/16/2012

2. Also lower indicators (RSI, and Slow Stochastic Oscillator) was oversold on 5,15,60 min.

 

Mistake:

1. Not waiting for the opening bell and letting the market decides it way first. I written this down in my notes several times to not trade before the bell, but tried to catch a bottom.

2. I should have confirm buy signal on Slow Stochastic Oscillator on 15 min chart like i normally do, but i didn't.

 

One, trying to buy before the market has shown you it's done selling when it's gapping down 20-odd points on european debt concerns was not good. Two, although the 39.25 (from 7/17) was possible support, I still liked 40.25 better. Either way I don't really count it as a double bottom in that it didn't retest it on 2 separate swings. It went to 39.75 then to 41.50 only before then touching 39.25. Just too tight imo to be called a double bottom as such. In any case, is buying at a double bottom something you feel is always a good idea?

[Predictor 11]

My idea for this trade was buying surge at 1334.50 was stop run... when market pushed above this, I held this could be buying to push market higher. Trade has taken MAE so far with no FE. That doesn't bode well.... but I continue to monitor.. target is around 40

 

I'm watching correlated markets... and the order flow in them. I'm seeing a reason to hold this trade and confidence is higher but I want to see FE.

 

Added..

[TheNegotiator 13]

My idea for this trade was buying surge at 1334.50 was stop run... when market pushed above this, I held this could be buying to push market higher. Trade has taken MAE so far with no FE. That doesn't bode well.... but I continue to monitor.. target is around 40

 

I'm watching correlated markets... and the order flow in them. I'm seeing a reason to hold this trade and confidence is higher but I want to see FE.

 

Plus mid/vwap area held...

[TheNegotiator 13]

The other thing I'd point out is that the market OD'd lower on open after gapping 20 points lower. Is a 6.75 IB something which would be consistent with that? Not saying it can't be and either reverse or break lower later, but it seems a pretty small IB right now considering.

[goodoboy 10]

One, trying to buy before the market has shown you it's done selling when it's gapping down 20-odd points on european debt concerns was not good.

 

You are correct, buying before opening was not good idea. Took my lost and learned from it.

 

In any case, is buying at a double bottom something you feel is always a good idea?

 

Yes, I consider double bottom a support, but what I like to do is consider other supports (ie, trendline, pivot, LOD,etc.) as well for more evidence. I also, like to match with the 5,15 min RSI or Slow Stochastic showing some buy signal when going long.

 

Tonight, I will read up on how to determine true double bottom.

 

Thank you.