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MadMarketScientist

Are There Any Forex EA's That Actually Work?

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Like most of you, I get bombarded with emails promoting forex trading EA plugins.

 

They promise the moon, whether it's 99% winning trades, or turning $1000 to $100,000 in no time at all. I've heard they tend to sell hundreds to thousands at a time - quite a business.

 

Of course, we know where all that leads in reality -- as virtually all of these tend to be over-optimized, curve fit systems that have settings that are customized with the benefit of hindsight and they typically fall apart going forward.

 

I would like to know from any of you -- have you used any of these EA's with any success? Or, if you have used any that were a total failure weigh in on that as well. Might save a few people from buying it as well.....

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LOL - I had to laugh at the title "...Actually Work". Man, I been down that road too - so my laughter was also a reminder of the pain. Thanks for the early morning chuckle :) Apologies for the OT post....

 

With kind regards,

MK

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I should have added something to that -- and even make it easier -forget living up to the off the chart claims of instant riches - - is there any that even maintains some semblance of profitability?

 

A couple recent ones I recall seeing a ton of promos on - Fibonacci Killer -- it's a dog but I'm sure many were sold.

 

There is one now being pushed called Forex Kagi - I was messaged by someone that it's just an ebook using a simple trend following indicator (lagging) but you'd never guess it from the incredibly slick sales page and videos - and it tried to sell you a robot after the first sale starting at $97 and each time you said "no thanks" he told me it kept knocking the price down all the way to $7 - about 6 or 7 price reductions....the only other one I think I ever saw at least some positive comments, maybe short-lived don't know was fap turbo but have no idea if it held up. Heard some reports that brokers had "broken" the strategy since too many were using it and would widen the spreads when it had trades trigger.....

 

Still, there has to be something right that at least is above $0 right :)

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I wonder if any do too. Of course none will get close to matching the extravagant claims of the vendors but I wonder if any will actually run profitably with suitable parameters. My hunch is that there must be one or two but I don't really have the inclination to put the (large) effort in to test and locate them. It doesn't help that such ridiculous claims are made I guess if you discount all those that would narrow the field....possibly to none!

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True on the dieting industry but there to, you know there are ones that can be very effective (you know, like eat less and exercise more) but they take a lot of work. So certainly, the easy way out is always the simplest for a marketer to promote. It probably is just as much our fault that that appeals so much (vs. doing the work :)

 

And, I think we all know with a lot of hard work there is a way to get success in trading.

 

The question are there some short-cuts or automations that can get people there quicker. Plenty want it to be so, hence the overwhelming popularity of these EA's vs. actually have to work hard at it - and I completely get the appeal. I wouldn't mind trading some hard fought hours for some away time while the computer is doing it's magic.

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That makes the interesting question: why is it so hard to find eas that actually work?

 

It seems to me that a majority of them pander to the desire of the new trader not to lose very often. Is that other peoples' experience or is it something else?

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I wonder if any do too. Of course none will get close to matching the extravagant claims of the vendors but I wonder if any will actually run profitably with suitable parameters. My hunch is that there must be one or two but I don't really have the inclination to put the (large) effort in to test and locate them. It doesn't help that such ridiculous claims are made I guess if you discount all those that would narrow the field....possibly to none!

 

If you could magically reproduce the exact trend and volatility of the period in which they were backtested they probably work fine. The unfortunately reality is these are ever changing, but a good sales pitch tends to gloss over this point.....

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"Simple" I think you make a great point. In a way they have to pander to most people's "get rich quick" desire.

 

Because face it, if you developed a strategy/system and said something like:

 

"Wins 60.1% of the time, keeps drawdowns to just 15% - 20% of your account, and only occasionally loses more than 4 times in a row!"

 

You woudn't have many takers, even if that statement probably very much describes a successful trade plan. In a way we maybe have ourselves to blame because we only buy what's really hypey and promises the moon and then read more realistic claims and the impulse is to think "wow, that's not very good"

 

Probably what we should do is have a b.s. filter -- such as anytime you see 90%+ winners, or Metatrader 'backtested' charts, or a sample size of 3 trades in a screenshot, etc... that you immediately move on. And that would probably eliminate about 99% of these ;)

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Most of the points raised here are equally applicable to all sorts of trading products and services. The catch 22 is that the people that all the junk is targeted at are unlikely to have the skills to evaluate the claims made. I guess 'black boxes' (EA's) are particularly tricky to deal with.

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The problem is that the markets are too dynamic for a single algorithm.

 

Some of the bots only work at certain times of the day. But that is just a start.

 

Even within a specific time of the day the price dynamics can vary greatly from day to day, from season to season. What works in January may not work in July.

 

It would take a very expensive bot, with a good deal of AI to sense the market and adapt the algo to the market. I am sure they exist, but they will never be sold on the retail market. Why would they be?

 

You can be sure Goldman Sachs has such bots...

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Even if you could find some successful models, it would be almost impossible to follow it without knowing the rules. even if you knew the rules, it's still unlikely you could follow it since it's not exactly suited to your personality. one has to take ownership of any strategy and adapt it for themselves.

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Even if you could find some successful models, it would be almost impossible to follow it without knowing the rules. even if you knew the rules, it's still unlikely you could follow it since it's not exactly suited to your personality. one has to take ownership of any strategy and adapt it for themselves.

 

Agreed. Bots can be approached successfully from two angles.

 

1. You are working some sort of HF magic they'll probably restrict soon anyway.

 

2. Having fully grounded your system you are adept enough to translate that perfectly into a rigid rule set to mimic when you trade, what you trade, and how your trade, and everything that you "see" when you look at the market. Thus simple systems are actually easier to build than complex ones in a way. You are just replicating that part of your system that gives you your edge.

 

Unlike much of the marketing hype making money "24hrs a day" in a market probably isn't the best strategy even if you never needed to sleep, eat, or have a life.

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I have been using both Megadroid and FAPturbo52 for a good while.

Both are excellent in getting you into a good trade....but...I will never...ever....walk away from my computer and rely on it to spend my hard earned money.

 

Therefore, instead of watching both programs go up & down looking for an exit, I monitor them and manually exit my trades. This gets me out of the trade and allows the programs another shot at getting you back into the hunt for a new trade.....otherwise, you may sit and watch it for hours wishing you had exited on that last spike. Neither program is idea for "turn it on and leave it" operation.

Regards,

Jim

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Several years ago I bought a few off of there -- pretty much what you would expect. Still the fantasy for "set and forget" 100% mechanical remains but still waiting to actually see it in reality. I think you can get to 90% mechanical - not believing you can get to 100%.

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I have been using both Megadroid and FAPturbo52 for a good while.

Both are excellent in getting you into a good trade....but...I will never...ever....walk away from my computer and rely on it to spend my hard earned money.

 

Therefore, instead of watching both programs go up & down looking for an exit, I monitor them and manually exit my trades. This gets me out of the trade and allows the programs another shot at getting you back into the hunt for a new trade.....otherwise, you may sit and watch it for hours wishing you had exited on that last spike. Neither program is idea for "turn it on and leave it" operation.

Regards,

Jim

 

The quoted post is right on. Bots are great in recognising entries that meet the parameters of a trading plan. What they find it difficult to do is to manage the trade as well as a discretionary trader as it is very difficult tp program the context. Additionally, in different volatility contexts, stops and targets vary. That is why Hybrid Trading as I call it is the best of all worlds. Use the bot to enter and have your drop dead stop and some targets but manage the trade manaually within those parameters.

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Personally I think the only people making money with forex robots, are the ones who sell them.

 

But I know from chatting to others that according to their experiences Forex Megadroid has done well for them. Depends on the broker you use, I think one is finfx.

 

But I don't really trust robots as unless I know what the robot is looking for when trading. And since no one offers that from these robots, I would stay away from them all. Rather trade manually then at least we have ourselves to blame for losing anything....

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A logical extension of the proposition 'no Forex EA's work' is that no relatively simple discretionary mechanical trading system works either. Reason being, that if it did, you could program it.

 

For example - there are a number of manual systems out there which appear discretionary - you know: 'current price is above the rising 50 MA and the 5 EMA, it's fallen 4 candles in a row from the last consecutive high and now you have two green candles. If ADX> 15 and the spikes on the last 20 candles look on average less than 25% of their body length, Buy. Stop to breakeven at 50% ATR, take profits at 0.75 and 1.5 ATR open profit'. I'm not saying that would work (and it's not a direct quote of anything I've seen), but it's not atypical of the style of some manual systems. It looks discretionary because you have to eyeball the candle wicks, and it looks as if it might take account of market volatility because you have an ATR condition and profit takes set by the ATR. But - you could program this and automate it to do exactly what a person trading it manually would do.

 

My suggestion is that if it's simple enough for an absolute beginner to learn and trade on those kind of rules, it's simple enough to automate. So, can either work?

 

Max

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electronic local sums it up perfectly - they are good for automating some things....managing the trade may be a different matter.

Remember - nothing works all the time.

Context is king

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if any of you is intrested check the secret life of chaos bbc documentary in youtube.

it is all about how selforganization , feedback and evolution can create complex systems

whithout any initial purpose in doing so

even intelligent life

 

the analogy to the markets and the timeframes down to the tick is more than obvious.

 

if some of you are intrested

we can start a meaningfull conversation about strategies and performance stats that can answer the question that started this thread and many other questions by deduction..

 

there are quite a few good programmers and traders here and if we openly open our "equity

charts"(not our code or setups just our performance) to each other we consitute quite a good sample of what is likely possible.

 

apart than that whitch in good faith will be accurate data all other conversation of this sort or this trading room and that idea and mp and fibonacci vortex and outter space is politely speaking speculation and wishfull thinking or plain horshit because they are not backed up by any kind of EVIDENCE..

is engaging in verbal arguments and various hypothesis or mere fantasies the reason

for you to be here..

 

i havn't seen one single thread of evidence for what is claimed in various threads as a sound methodology so far.

 

post your acount progress if you are descreationary traders or your performance stats if you design strategies and lets start a real conversation about the markets...

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I will add just some very simple basics - but simple basics tend to be what works best for me.

 

I never do well trying to trade 100% mechanical. If I shoot for 90% rules based and 10% discretion I do far better.

 

I always focus on price based rules/techniques first and do best when either trying to enter off of extremes - such as when a market sells off I look for price confirmations to try and trade and profit from the bounce. Whenever I do that I always build in a reversal rule - because clearly sometimes that bounce is short-lived. I consider that my insurance trade to ideally offset the bounce that never carries through.

 

I always require confirmation to enter - for example I'll never buy on a dip in price or short as price goes up -- I always identify that I want to buy - then I require price confirmation -meaning price has to go further in that direction to confirm before I will buy.

 

Finally another always for me are identifying key/round numbers in the market I'm trading - I will always take "mechanical" set-ups and push them slightly around any of these levels that I have found these markets respect. I also consider that small insurance and an excellent price filter.

 

MMS

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Hi all

thanks to MMS for this great thread to start.:embarassed:

when i read the title of the thread i quite my work and start thinking about that i read all comments. I search my whole PC disks and found more than 3k EA's and there mannuals in my PC.(most of them are free and other are from 99$ to 499$ each of them :stick out tongue:)

I dont buy or use them but i collect them as a hobby.

some of my friends use famous ea's that are at high rating in forexpeacearmy site.

but they dont use them 24/5 but with their own rules and timing depend on the ea type.

They are getting good results in real.

As ROBERTM says robots can be approached successfully from two basic rules. Iam totally 200% agree with him.

Last thing dont buy any ea or system because they are available on net for free just you need some goggle search techniques. if you need any help on that just tell me i will be very happy to help you to get them for free.

thanks

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yes there are lot of EA that actually work. like I purchased goldexpertadvisor and run on real micro account.

In first 3 days up $43 on a deposit of $500. :D

It increased 23% equity for two weeks. Good job by goldexpertadvisor team!

cheers!!!!!!!!

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