Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

UrmaBlume

Today's Action by Intelligent/Predictive Agents

Recommended Posts

Has anyone discussed how they trade using this TI info? Scalps, swing trades, etc.? I think it can lend itself to both, depending on the action you see.

 

I'm interested in this as well so I'll share my first trade today. I'm not trading off a 100 tick chart, this is just for my intensity indicators. I haven't yet came up with a way to collect data on a fast chart and display it on my normal charts (which to make it more difficult, are in Tradestation).

 

I'm not entering or exiting based on intensity signals, but rather they're just another piece of the puzzle for my discretionary trading.

 

My biggest challenge is that I find these intensity signals are usually exhaustion and mean there will be a pause or slowdown but not necessarily a reversal. So one can't just trade these thinking it marks the top. Far from it.

 

in this case I had a setup and thought the market would turn down. It did enough for me to get one target off but didn't hit my second. I continued cycling 1 pt scalps and finally my setup was no longer valid so I exited the 2nd contract and waited for another setup.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=21261&stc=1&d=1275490548

5aa7100e1d876_estrade01ti.thumb.png.d5b418cb0064bbe7e0868590c2883b36.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thank you FT for posting this concise list. It is very close to what I have come up with on my own by reading through these various threads as well as trial and error/ experimentation.

 

Has anyone discussed how they trade using this TI info? Scalps, swing trades, etc.? I think it can lend itself to both, depending on the action you see.

For the ES.......8 to 12 tick runs of price is where I have been targeting covering the majority of the entered position. This may change in time with more forward testing and with any significant changes to the volatility from our current situation. In the CL for instance, I have been so far looking at 15 to 20 tick moves to cover the majority of the position.....again, more forward testing through June and July and I will have a better idea for what is realistic initial targets.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

BTW, just to throw in another wrench....Who do large liquidity participants follow most of the day (in the "ES" that is)?

 

What do you mean by "follow"?

 

And thanks for that excellent list of ideas for measuring intensity.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
What do you mean by "follow"?

 

And thanks for that excellent list of ideas for measuring intensity.

I wanted to point out that action in the Equities Index instruments follow many of the BUY / SELL program activities in the Equities markets (mainly NYSE) for the ES, YM, TF action.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I wanted to point out that action in the Equities Index instruments follow many of the BUY / SELL program activities in the Equities markets (mainly NYSE) for the ES, YM, TF action.

 

Can you explain why someone would sell both futures & equities at the same time? I thought they would do a buy program on equities and sell futures as a hedge. I'm not sure what you mean by follow.. do you mean trade the same direction or do you mean in time (one before the other)?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Can you explain why someone would sell both futures & equities at the same time? I thought they would do a buy program on equities and sell futures as a hedge. I'm not sure what you mean by follow.. do you mean trade the same direction or do you mean in time (one before the other)?

 

Fair Value, Program Trading, and the S&P Premium

The "premium" (PREM) or "spread" is the difference between the most active S&P 500 Stock Index Futures Contract (the spoos) minus the actual S&P 500 Stock Index (cash). That difference, which usually ranges between $5.00 to $-5.00, and slowly decays or rises as we reach the S&P 500 Futures Contract expiration, is what program trading is based on. When the PREM difference rises to a certain execution level, "buy" programs kick in. Our large institutional clients then buy the stocks in the S&P 500 Stock Index on the New York Stock Exchange and sell the S&P 500 Stock Index Futures Contract against those positions on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. When the PREM difference drops to a certain execution level, "sell" programs kick in and our clients do the exact opposite. These transactions have extremely low risks because of the abnormal market differences in the PREM as traders capture those few points of profit before the PREM returns to normal and/or Fair Value. This type of program trading is called index arbitrage and is very common. But it usually accounts for less than 10% of all program trading activity done each day.

 

Hope that helps.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for the replies on targets/trade objectives. I guess there are multiple strategies that could be employed, depending on # of contracts, risk tolerance, etc.

 

As for premium arb, I have been watching this for some time and there are definitely times when the prem hits significant levels and there is no TI. Cash just snaps back in line with futures. Then there are also times when prem arb is happening along with TI. I guess this is more evidence that there are multiple participants and multiple objectives at any given time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Can you explain why someone would sell both futures & equities at the same time? I thought they would do a buy program on equities and sell futures as a hedge. I'm not sure what you mean by follow.. do you mean trade the same direction or do you mean in time (one before the other)?

 

For speculative trade, liquidity is one reason. I don't know how the big institutions decide to buy, but when they do, they often buy in a hurry. Therefore, if they can spread their orders out over as many markets as possible, they will experience less slippage than if they threw the entire order into one market.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
For speculative trade, liquidity is one reason. I don't know how the big institutions decide to buy, but when they do, they often buy in a hurry. Therefore, if they can spread their orders out over as many markets as possible, they will experience less slippage than if they threw the entire order into one market.

 

Indeed. Whilst browsing the interwebz for interesting material for the kindle I came across this

Powered by Google Docs One of the premises is that intense trade is a function of urgency with respect to available liquidity. It is focused on defaults but seems relevant to any situation where immediacy is required. The paper suggests a few reasons for urgency (avoiding defualts), there are others that occur to me that are not about 'defaults' (last leg of an arbitrage trade for example).

 

I haven't got my head around the maths yet (I wish it wasn't so rusty) but it seems to seek to quantify intensity and its short and long term impact on price. (amongst other things). Quantifying what is 'intense' seems like an important thing for an agent.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Nate,

 

In answer to your first query "what tick database are you using" I assume your are talking about which data vendor, not the dbms itself. In any case I will answer both.

 

Also may I thank you for your most eloquent and well written expression of on-topic, non-personal constructive criticism? I would humbly ask that you describe and demonstrate any comprable work of your own creation in the same level of detail as is in the text below:

 

Pat, I like to pull your chain and try to be a bigger ass on trading boards than the perception people have of you, its amusing to me to do so since there is largely so little signal to pull of trading boards in general.

I'm sure from our exchanges there is no way you realize that I absolutely want to be you in 20 years. :)

Of course I can't DEMONSTRATE comparable work, yet...I put you on being between 52-56 years of age.. so I have 2 decades to beat what you have done.

I noticed you didn't respond on 2+2 to the guy that called you out for throwing out jargon in that thread you created in business and finance.

Your mistake is that you don't think anyone else at the trading board level is thinking as deeply about this stuff as you.

I could care less about your data feed. I meant literally what DB to learn here to store as much tick data as possible. Why SQL over a time series db? I'm on the fence between HDF5 and Berkley..I can understand if you have hired some DB guy who is simply good with SQL...any analysis of the situation though makes it obvious that SQL is not optimal for tick data at all. However, obviously a poorly done time series db setup by an amateur may be suboptimal to an SQL guru in reality.

As far as swarm intelligence, I don't see how you get around that functions that are modified by their input are better than a sum cascade of functions modeling input in the long run if you are really talking about "intelligence". In the short term obviously yes...I'm hardly though trying to figure out this most difficult problem tomorrow.

That swarm intelligence book is pretty lame though really after you have read it. I would think you would find The Ants by Bert Holldobler much more interesting. Its the most lovely book I've ever purchased to boot.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So while a few spend all their time over who you can or can't call a Commercial, the actual discussion should be on how to identify when large liquidity participants are getting into the market with newly initiated directional trade.

 

As usual the market evolves past what the literature and networked trading board information can keep up with between us. In COT terms, the idea you can separate in real time/short time frame/day trader time frame the difference between commercial and large speculator action is completely absurd unless you ignore the entire concept of index arbitrage. Small speculators mean nothing to the market, they basically only add noise to the analysis because of their lack of liquidity.

Its not as if "commercial" index futures players are so underfunded that they have not already blasted back against high frequency "speculative" index arbs. That doesn't even make any sense, of course they have. If anything they are better funded.

Ditmar's trade intensity I would imagine is measuring when the spread between the tick by tick value of the cash index gets enough out of whack with the derivative that all the arbs start gun slinging...some pull out a piece of alpha, a shitload react to that but are too late and on the tape you tend to get an easy fade of that game. It however also draws a line in the sand for the discretionary trader on a short time frame of what algo arbs are looking at as far as the spread and "fair value" for the current implied index volatility at that moment, but that info is completely out of context if you are only looking at price levels of the derivative. I would imagine though its information that adds to positive expectation when added to other trading decisions, even though fundamentally its obviously suboptimal in theory.

You could improve on this with a ms resolution snapshot of the actual value of the cash index and compare things, but taking ms snapshots of the cash index at our level is hardly non trivial.

Edited by natedredd10

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

So while a few spend all their time over who you can or can't call a Commercial, the actual discussion should be on how to identify when large liquidity participants are getting into the market with newly initiated directional trade.

 

I think most would agree that it does not matter whether they are 'commercial' however I'd go further. You mention 4 criteria -

 

1) large - not so important to me which is fortunate as while you can detect patterns you can not know for sure whether it is 10 x 100 lot traders or 1 x 1000 lot traders. As you say liquidity is what it is all about. Fortunately things like intensity are pretty effective at detecting immediate liquidity requirements.

 

2) Getting into - again not so important perhaps - whether they are getting in to the market or out of the market. Fortunate as pretty hard to detect (imho). Arguably participants getting out of the market are equally worth coat tailing as they often cause greater movement (more urgency).

 

3) Initiating new trade - again not so important (imvho) similar reasons to above. Hard to know if the buyer/seller is buying/selling to open/close. Mind you I do like how you use cumulative delta as a sort of proxy for OI.

 

4) Directional trade - not bothered :) - hard to detect for sure especially when you consider that some of the largest participants are not speculating on market direction at all.

 

The key thing is liquidity in fact you can look at markets fairly simply as systems to match the liquidity requirements of participants.

 

I think my criteria would be a bit more general, determine where liquidity might be found (simple S/R would do or your resting inventory model seems pretty robust). Monitor the order flow (demand for liquidity) particularly in these areas. Do not pay much attention to the who is operating and why (or do so just for fun if that floats your boat). Fortunately you can always (leaving aside dark pools) see someone is at it, and by using tools based on V@B/A and or intensity see how aggressively.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Do not pay much attention to the who is operating and why (or do so just for fun if that floats your boat). Fortunately you can always (leaving aside dark pools) see someone is at it, and by using tools based on V@B/A and or intensity see how aggressively.

 

Hello BlowFish,

 

thank you for your useful post.

 

Referring to macdfx's useful link to program trading in post #106, I'll agree with you when you write: "Do not pay much attention to the who is operating and why".

 

The important part is: How much at all?

 

And this is obvious, because even if I know their (the who) intentions (the why) like e.g. program traders, I will never know their possible impact in that unique moment as they begin to act.

 

Like looking on some ants conquering one domino. Can they turn the domino to the right side and will this have enough follow through. How about the other ants on the opposite side?

 

Even when we can identify program trading 80% on average, what does that mean? You will have 80% success?

 

So, when program trading kicks in, they make their money in a couple of seconds or minutes and once $prem is in balance they are out. And then? What about follow through?

 

Do I really need to know when e.g. program trading kicks in, since the program trading are reputed to be accountable for only 10% of the volume?

 

Do I even have to know if it's the big paper or anyone else with allegedly influence who has entered the game?

 

How much worth is a 80% success rate of identification the correct party at that particular moment when they too, naturally don't have a 100% success rate?

 

As long as I can locate/identify the effect by recognizing the aggressivity/intensity in a timely manner, I really don't need to know who is exactly most probably liable or the cause for that, just because it is always another unique moment.

 

I would say, the most important part is "context" and not "identification".

 

I can set an exact context for each price, when I can determine my own (although discretionary) extreme levels. By the way, we are doing this all the time in our lives.

 

But what am I gonna do, if I can identify who is now in the game for sure, but can neither talk to him nor knowing how much his impact will be?

 

Put simply, what is a local gonna do when he/she is long and paper selling is coming in?

 

a) sell everything (to whom?)

b) to pit oneself against (how long?)

c) buy as much as he can (how much can he?)

 

And at least to put it in real estate language, IMO everything amounts to just one: prime location

 

PS: Although someone could argue that this thread is still on topic, I am very happy with the amount of insightful contributions. Thanks!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
How can intensity help you if you don't know what the underlying is doing, intensity is simply intensity it can be a blip or something important.

 

As they say, Cash is king.

 

 

Ok I'll bite: what's in the 2nd & 3rd panels?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Urma,

From my understanding, you've said that the large/important players submit very large orders (let's assume 1,000 contracts) by placing 1000 one lot orders (or some variation of this) that all fall within a single second (or less). From now on, I'll refer to this as a "pulsed order." Furthermore, the purpose of your trade intensity indicator is to detect this pulse. Please correct me if I am wrong. My question is this:

 

Prints are not based on the size of the market order, they are based on the size with which the market order was matched. Meaning, if I place a market order to buy 10 contracts, the tape will print the quantities that were sitting on the offer when my market order was matched. So, if someone happens to be offering 10 contracts, the tape will reflect this by printing a 10. If 10 different people are sitting on the offer, all offering one lots, the tape will print 10 one lots. Therefore, I question how you can tell whether an order was pulsed in or whether someone placed a buy market block 1000 order (assuming the offer was made up of smaller size). Are you saying that a "pulsed" 1000 lot order prints faster than a 1000 block order that gets matched with 1000 one lots? Seems to me like they would have the same "intensity." In fact, seems to me that the block order might even print a tiny bit faster since it is a single order (as opposed to a pulsed order, which is a 1000 micro orders).

 

Thanks

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I thought this was an interesting article I found that may or may not have some application/interest to the volume ideas discussed here and in a few other threads

Volatility: Friend or Foe? | FINalternatives

a guest contributor article on

Volatility: Friend or Foe?

Jun 9 2010 | 1:02pm ET

 

(I think everyone should be able to view it without a login, otherwise I will try and reproduce it)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Urma,

From my understanding, you've said that the large/important players submit very large orders (let's assume 1,000 contracts) by placing 1000 one lot orders (or some variation of this) that all fall within a single second (or less). From now on, I'll refer to this as a "pulsed order." Furthermore, the purpose of your trade intensity indicator is to detect this pulse. Please correct me if I am wrong. My question is this:

 

Prints are not based on the size of the market order, they are based on the size with which the market order was matched. Meaning, if I place a market order to buy 10 contracts, the tape will print the quantities that were sitting on the offer when my market order was matched. So, if someone happens to be offering 10 contracts, the tape will reflect this by printing a 10. If 10 different people are sitting on the offer, all offering one lots, the tape will print 10 one lots. Therefore, I question how you can tell whether an order was pulsed in or whether someone placed a buy market block 1000 order (assuming the offer was made up of smaller size). Are you saying that a "pulsed" 1000 lot order prints faster than a 1000 block order that gets matched with 1000 one lots? Seems to me like they would have the same "intensity." In fact, seems to me that the block order might even print a tiny bit faster since it is a single order (as opposed to a pulsed order, which is a 1000 micro orders).

 

Thanks

 

When you see 1296 contracts fly by in 100 ms, and also that the burst is padded with several hundred ms of no trade activity both before and after...you're probably not looking at 500 perfectly synchronized retail traders.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
When you see 1296 contracts fly by in 100 ms, and also that the burst is padded with several hundred ms of no trade activity both before and after...you're probably not looking at 500 perfectly synchronized retail traders.

 

Exactly. A 1300 block order will look very similar to a pulsed 1300 lot order (assuming there wasnt size sitting on the offer for the block order). Therefore, trying to distinguish between pulsed orders and block orders (if one indeed believes that pulsed orders are a better indication of order flow shifts than block orders) is somewhat futile because prints are based-off of the limit orders in the book, not the market orders (assuming two market orders are not crossed).If I place a 1200 block buy market order and there are 1200 one lots on the offer, the trade will look exactly like a pulsed order. You cant tell the difference (unless there was size sitting on the offer).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Exactly. A 1300 block order will look very similar to a pulsed 1300 lot order (assuming there wasnt size sitting on the offer for the block order). Therefore, trying to distinguish between pulsed orders and block orders (if one indeed believes that pulsed orders are a better indication of order flow shifts than block orders) is somewhat futile because prints are based-off of the limit orders in the book, not the market orders (assuming two market orders are not crossed).If I place a 1200 block buy market order and there are 1200 one lots on the offer, the trade will look exactly like a pulsed order. You cant tell the difference (unless there was size sitting on the offer).

 

 

Quite.

 

Alas, you're banging your head against the wall. There are many, many flaws with the logic sitting behind this. You have mentioned one. I have mentioned others (on either this or another similar thread). For example, the person you addressed has given thanks to a post since yours, but has not replied. Thus we know he is here, but can not answer.

 

One thing is for sure however: There are a few people on these boards who promote them selves as 'experts', yet demonstrate a shocking lack of knowledge of the basics of the futures industry and it's workings; from how orders are matched, to variety of techniques employed, the goals and reasons of business of different participants.

 

These few people have an unshakeable belief however that what they have observed a few times in the past (they call this back testing apparently), and have managed to come up with an explanation, so decide it must be true. They have built an idol of their own making and worship it. If you try and suggest otherwise, and help them correct their ways, they accuse you of stalking, etc. It's quite fun to observe - dressing opinion as fact, then insisting you are an intellectual.

:rofl:

 

I wouldn't worry about it. You seem intelligent enough to see the flaws. Just sit back and be amazed at those who follow.........

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Exactly. A 1300 block order will look very similar to a pulsed 1300 lot order (assuming there wasnt size sitting on the offer for the block order). Therefore, trying to distinguish between pulsed orders and block orders (if one indeed believes that pulsed orders are a better indication of order flow shifts than block orders) is somewhat futile because prints are based-off of the limit orders in the book, not the market orders (assuming two market orders are not crossed).If I place a 1200 block buy market order and there are 1200 one lots on the offer, the trade will look exactly like a pulsed order. You cant tell the difference (unless there was size sitting on the offer).

 

i must be missing something here.

 

Let's say there are 100 1 lot traders who sell 1 lot on the offer as a limit.

 

I buy 100 market.

 

Does the Time & Sales show 100 at offer? Or does it show one hundred times 1 at offer?

 

and the second question:

 

50 1 lot traders put 1 lot sell at limit 76.50 (which is the offer)

50 1 lot traders put 1 lot sell at limit 76.75

 

I buy 100 market. What does time & sales show?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
i must be missing something here.

 

Let's say there are 100 1 lot traders who sell 1 lot on the offer as a limit.

 

I buy 100 market.

 

Does the Time & Sales show 100 at offer? Or does it show one hundred times 1 at offer?

 

and the second question:

 

50 1 lot traders put 1 lot sell at limit 76.50 (which is the offer)

50 1 lot traders put 1 lot sell at limit 76.75

 

I buy 100 market. What does time & sales show?

 

Firstly, it will depend on the exchange. Different exchanges report differently.

I think the CME will report in the smallest denominator, so your 100 lot bid will print as you receive the fills back 100x1lots.

 

2nd Q: 50x 1 lot prints at 50, 50x 1 lot prints at 75

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just sit back and be amazed at those who follow.........

 

That's why I posted in the first place. Im trying to do my part and stop people from following, that is unless Urma actually wants to address the post and prove me wrong. I would be more than happy to admit that I was wrong and apologize. Plus, his answer would be a tremendous benefit to the community.

 

On another note, if anyone has any questions about how the CME reports trades, I highly recommend calling and talking to them, I have done so on numerous occasions and they are incredibly helpful, usually providing even more information than you initially needed/wanted. If you're going to incorporate something into your trading system, better make sure your assumptions are correct (as opposed to taking the word of someone on the message boards).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Firstly, it will depend on the exchange. Different exchanges report differently.

I think the CME will report in the smallest denominator, so your 100 lot bid will print as you receive the fills back 100x1lots.

 

2nd Q: 50x 1 lot prints at 50, 50x 1 lot prints at 75

 

EDIT: Read the post after this one because I misunderstood TheDude's reply..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date : 14th October 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th October 2019.No-deal Brexit risks are looking more real than ever, with reports suggesting that talks will officially break down this week ahead of the upcoming EU summit on 17 and 18 October. Elsewhere, further US data and Fedspeak could provide more clues about the possibility of a Fed rate cut. Tuesday – 15 October 2019 Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – September’s Chinese CPI is seen unchanged at 0.7% while the PPI figure is expected to decline further to -1.2%. The overall reading for CPI is estimated to post a gain up to 2.9% y/y. ILO & Average Earnings Index 3m/y (GBP, GMT 08:30) – UK Earnings with the bonus-excluded figure are expected to slip to 3.7% y/y in the three months to August, down from 3.8%y/y. UK ILO unemployment is expected steady at 3.8%, which was the lowest rate seen since December 1974. ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Economic Sentiment for October is projected at -27 from the -22.5 seen last month, as the current conditions indicator for Germany turned negative. The overall Eurozone reading though expected to declne further to -33.0 slightly from -22.4. A lower than expected outcome, ties in with the stagnation in market sentiment at the start of the month. Consumer Price Index (NZD, GMT 21:45) – One of the most important figures for FX markets, the y/y CPI for Q3 is expected to come out at 1.4%, compared to 1.7% in the previous quarter. Wednesday – 16 October 2019 Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The UK CPI is expected to rebound to a 1.8% y/y rate in September after dipping to 1.7% in August from 2.1% in July. Weakness in sterling from year-go levels should impact some offset to disinflationary forces. Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The Euro Area CPI is expected to be confirmed at just 0.9% y/y in the final release for September, although the deceleration in the headline rate over the month was largely due to base effects from energy prices, with core inflation actually moving up to 1.0% y/y from 0.9% y/y in August. Consumer Price Index (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The Canadian CPI index is expected to have increased to 2%y/y compared to 1.9%y/y in August. The core CPI measures remained near 2.0%. Retail Sales (USD, GMT 12:30) – Retail Sales are an important determinant of consumer spending thus making it a leading indicator for overall economic growth. Consensus expectations suggest that we should have increased by 0.2% in September, for both the retail sales headline and the ex-auto figure, following a 0.4% August headline rise with a flat ex-auto figure. Fedspeak: Fed Brainard (USD, GMT 19:00) Thursday – 17 October 2019 European Council Summit on Brexit Employment Data (AUD, GMT 01:30) – While the Unemployment Rate is projected to have flipped at 5.3% in September, Employment change is expected to have eased, increasing by 10K compared to 34.7K last month. Retail Sales ex Fuel (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Retail Sales in the UK are anticipated to increase in September, reaching 3.0% on a y/y basis, and 0.5% on a m/m basis, from the 2.7% and -0.2% respectively Housing Data and Building Permits (USD, GMT 12:30) – Housing starts should drop back to a 1.282 mln pace in September, after a sharp rise to a 1.364 mln clip in August with the help of lower mortgage rates. Permits similarly are expected to slow to 1.370 mln in September, after popping to 1.425 mln in September. Permits have shown a solid growth path into Q3 despite a July starts set-back. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Philly Fed index is seen falling to 7.0 from 12.0 in September, versus a 1-year high of 21.8 in July and a 33-month low of -4.1 in February. The late-September producer sentiment surveys deteriorated significantly after firmness in the early-September reports, and the early-October data will be closely scrutinized to see if this pull-back continued. The “soft data” surveys are at risk of a possible impact from the UAW-GM strike, alongside the ongoing headwind from troubles abroad. Fedspeak: Fed Bowman and Fed Williams (USD, GMT 18:00 and 20:20) Friday – 18 October 2019 European Council Summit on Brexit China Gross Domestic Product (CNY, GMT 02:00)- Chinese GDP is projected to see additional moderation to a 6.1% y/y pace in Q3, from 6.2% in Q2. Industrial Production and Retail Sales (CNY, GMT 02:00) – The September industrial production is forecast at 4.5% y/y from 4.4% previously, while September retail sales likely improved to 7.7% y/y from 7.5%. Fedspeak: Fed Kaplan and Fed Clarida (USD, GMT 15:00 and 15:30) Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • This should really be very easy, but I can't find an article or video to walk me through it. I picked 20 ticker symbols where the stocks are in a tight trading range. I got them all into one list I call "Channel". I'd like to add several indicators that apply to all, such as MACD, volume, 3 moving averages. Then I'd like to scroll through the list, adding trendlines, or horizontal lines to mark the top & bottom of the price channel for each. Then set an alarm for a breakout in each direction that indicates a breakout. Could you point me to an article or video that walks me through how to do this? ...or give me the steps? Thank you, RichardV2, Experienced stock trader back before the Internet was invented.😁
    • The Economic Proscription of U.S. Farmers by China Maybe Forever   Similar to a black eye on the face, it’s placing an indelible imprint. The retaliatory levies by China over U.S. commodity producers, such as soybeans, which seem to be forever. The moment such happens for the market it becomes irreversible.   It’s a dread numerous farmers from North Dakota to Mississippi have recognized for as far back as last year. They worry that they’ve put millions in soybean development on account of China. Since Chinese focus is now transferred towards Brazil rather, that market might be gone forever.   Once the confidence merchants have in the U.S. declines as a steady provider because of the trade dispute, the more vital its important for them to support and further broaden other avenues.   The developing danger for American agribusiness presently is that a great part of the piece of the overall industry lost throughout the year will be hard or difficult to win back at any point shortly, the Boston Consulting Group said in a detailed analysis discharged on Wednesday.   This is for the most part because of long term contracts that are regularly recorded among purchasers and sellers, contingent upon the item. The lesson from the analysis shows that U.S. farmers need to turn out to be less reliant on China, and simply trust in the best concerning those customers organizing a rebound sooner or later.   For the time being, China is going to Australia, Brazil, New Zealand, Russia, and also for its domestic producers as an option in contrast to American developed crops and animal proteins.   From the detailed analysis: “The risk that U.S. agribusinesses may for all time lose foreign market share of the overall industry isn’t only hypothetical. In past trade disputes, for example, one with China including beef, the US has not recaptured its lost share. As a result of the increase of U.S. crops and food materials more costly than other choices, high duties bring down the price to merchants who plan to expand. Also, the fewer confidence merchants have in the US as a steady provider, in perspective on the potential for future trade disputes, the more important it progresses toward becoming for them to support and further expand. After some time, merchants could loosen up complex associations with suppliers from the U.S.”   China Receives Blames for the Pressure And this is so because China is important to American farmers. China purchased $19.5 billion in U.S. agricultural items as of 2017, representing 14% of exports of farm produce, in light of BCS analysis. In July 2018, China slammed a 25% levy on U.S. agricultural items.   Exports at that point declined by an incredible 53% for the year. While exports to China have declined also for this year, over past years free fall.   There is another motivation behind why some China customers may not come back to the U.S. China is extending its very own crop acreage, particularly for soybeans. After some time, China will turn out to be progressively independent. Except if request increases generously, China will purchase its very own soybeans, regulating export development and under control in any case.   “Individuals in the business were in a condition of cheerfulness, believing that a bargain would soon be reached,” says Michael McAdoo, associate, and related executive for BCS in Montreal. “Our analysis demonstrates that regardless of whether there is a bargain, there is worry that a similar volume won’t return. They need to try different markets,” he declared.   Source: https://learn2.trade 
    • Trade Dispute Responsible for China’s Overwhelming Gold Purchase Rate   China has included more than 100 tons of gold to its stores since it continued purchasing in December, fortifying its position as one of the significant authority collectors as national banks load up on the valuable metal.   The People’s Bank of China grabbed progressively gold a month ago, raising reserves to 62.64 million ounces in September from 62.45 million in August, as per information on its site. In tonnage terms, the most recent inflow sums 5.9 tons and comes in as an expansion of about 99.8 tons over the earlier nine months.   Bullion hit the most noteworthy in over six years in September as more slow development, the trade dispute and rate reductions prodded financial specialist request. National banks have been significant purchasers as well, particularly in developing markets. Administrative demands will probably proceed as protectionist strategies and geopolitical concerns add to the request, as forecasted by Suki Cooper, the valuable metals investigator at Standard Chartered Bank.   “With the stressed partnerships with the U.S., China requires support against its enormous possessions of the dollar, and gold serves that capacity,” said Howie Lee, a financial specialist at Singapore-based Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. “As China turns into a superpower in its very own right, I anticipate progressively gold-purchases.”   China’s High Gold Appetite The PBOC’s continuos running of bullion-purchasing has come against the difficult setting of the trade dispute with the U.S. furthermore, a stamped lull in development at home. While high-level discussions are set to continue in Washington this week, Chinese authorities are flagging they’re progressively hesitant to consent to an expansive bargain.   Spot gold spiked to as much as 0.4% to $1,511.31 an ounce on Monday and exchanged at $1,505.84 in early London exchange. While the value declined 3.2% in September, they remain high at 17% this year. The PBOC information was discharged at the end of the week. Alongside China, Russia has additionally been including generous amounts of bullion. In the initial half-year, national banks overall got 374.1 tons, supporting the overall gold request to a three-year high, the World Gold Council declared.   While a tenth straight month of amassing, shows an unfaltering purchasing trend for the PBOC, China has in the past gone for significant stretches without uncovering moves for its gold possessions. At the point the national bank declared a 57% bounce in savings to 53.3 million ounces in mid-2015, that was the first update in quite a while.   Source: https://learn2.trade   
    • GBPJPY Reverses Its Sell-Off Around the Level at 130.75  OCTOBER 9, 2019  Azeez Mustapha  No Comments   GBPJPY Price Analysis – October 9 In the prior session, the pair closed lower for the second day in a row, but currently, the GBPJPY displays a weakness further downside of the pair while retaining its wider medium-term outlook by temporal reversal on the level at 130.75.   Key Levels Resistance Levels: 148.66, 137.80, 135.774 Support Levels: 130.75, 128.68, 126.54   GBPJPY Long term Trend: Bearish In the bigger picture, the GBPJPY consolidation structure is still forming from the technical support zone on the level at 126.54 low.   A further upward move may be recorded towards the level at 146.57 and 148.66 in an extension where its resistance is glaring before completing the structure. However, the overall trend remains bearish while displaying an intact downtrend in the medium and long-term.   GBPJPY Short term Trend: Bearish On the 4-hour time frame, its price is trading narrowly between the moving average 5 and 13 close to the key technical support level at 130.44.   As it is presently, the intraday bias in GBPJPY remains on the downside at this point where a corrective rebound from the level at 126.54 low should have completed. Meanwhile, its 4-hour RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness.   Source: https://learn2.trade 
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.