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UrmaBlume

Today's Action by Intelligent/Predictive Agents

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Today's (04/27) action in ES has offered better trading opportunities than we have seen in that particular contract in some time.

 

In This Thread I discussed the practical applications of some of the predictive agents we use in our trading.

 

These agents receive inputs from time of day normalized percentage of normal commercial participation and bias as well as a host of bias inputs calculated as described in This Thread. This information is stored in global variables and processed by the agents working on that particular chart.

 

The agents then auto-post TradePoints or NoTrade recommendations. We define a TradePoint as a particular point in the Price/Time/Volume continuum where a specific action is recommended.

 

Here is a shot of some of today's action showing such a recommendation. These texts are updated every tick and are for the current bar. The smaller red dots are stops, the small blue dots are take profits for scalpers and the + is a recommended entry price.

 

 

tpt018.jpg

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Hi Urma, I've been following your threads with great curiosity. I've done a lot of research into volume and written several indicators to help me analyze volume and use it in my trading. I have a trade intensity indicator but it's no where near as sophisticated as yours. ;)

 

I'm really curious how you classify volume as "commercial". Currently I do this by looking at above average trade size. From reading your posts, if I understand correctly, a large trade size isn't the smart money you're tracking. If you could elaborate on how you classify commercial activity that would be very helpful.

 

Thanks

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I've been following all the threads, started by UrmaBlume and i've developed trade intensity indicator. Personally i don't know is it 100% replica of original TI but it seems that UrmaBlume keeps this secret because he doesn't answered to any of my questions, just gave some hints. I like blowfish's idea and am sharing this idea. It would be interesting to hear UrmaBlume, but here is my opinion:

velocity of trade = price/time. Trade intensity = velocity of trade/time. Really my indicator measures with a 1/1000 sec precise how fast timestamps are moving and is it buying/selling tick. You could often observe, that commercial volume entered at specific levels ( pivots, trendline break and so on ), where all the retail traders are ripped. I observing this abnormal volume comparing this to the normal volume at this moment of the day and am calculating the total volume which have occured at these spikes. The total volume at the spike = acuumulated/distributed commercial volume. It seems that it works in some way for me, doesn't so good as for UrmaBlume but good enough too. Red spikes - buying volume, blues spikes - selling. Today accumulation have taken the place in three steps ( screenshots ). Just calculate volume on these spikes and you'll get commercial LONG volume. Would be interesting to see pictures from Urma.

1.thumb.jpg.158b83d506ea4d32772ec90b5c1b887e.jpg

2.thumb.jpg.27f3a61e0693f6cf784441cd4f779215.jpg

3.thumb.jpg.f5a81d1f2ab5bd3b0c221b103efaa15e.jpg

Edited by boomerangas

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Hi Urma, I've been following your threads with great curiosity. I've done a lot of research into volume and written several indicators to help me analyze volume and use it in my trading. I have a trade intensity indicator but it's no where near as sophisticated as yours. ;)

 

I'm really curious how you classify volume as "commercial". Currently I do this by looking at above average trade size. From reading your posts, if I understand correctly, a large trade size isn't the smart money you're tracking. If you could elaborate on how you classify commercial activity that would be very helpful.

Thanks

 

Certainly size can show you that the commercial is present, i.e., the 2 lot trader never trades a 100 lot.

 

The issue with the efficacy of this approach is that you need to differentiate between commercial spec trades and commercial permium aribtrage.

 

The commercial who trades for premium capture doesn't care about price, he only cares about the ROI offered by the current permium level.

 

The commercial spec trader cares nothing about premium.

 

My head of technology has had 3 offers from 3 different hedge funds in the last 6 mos to build technology to disguise just such entries.

 

cheers

 

UB

 

Size alone is useless for this work.

 

PS Does anybody know what's wrong withthe search engine. I can search usernames but not keywords.

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I've been following all the threads, started by UrmaBlume and i've developed trade intensity indicator. Personally i don't know is it 100% replica of original TI but it seems that UrmaBlume keeps this secret because he doesn't answered to any of my questions, just gave some hints. I like blowfish's idea and am sharing this idea. It would be interesting to hear UrmaBlume, but here is my opinion:

velocity of trade = price/time. Trade intensity = velocity of trade/time. Really my indicator measures with a 1/1000 sec precise how fast timestamps are moving and is it buying/selling tick. You could often observe, that commercial volume entered at specific levels ( pivots, trendline break and so on ), where all the retail traders are ripped. I observing this abnormal volume comparing this to the normal volume at this moment of the day and am calculating the total volume which have occured at these spikes. The total volume at the spike = acuumulated/distributed commercial volume. It seems that it works in some way for me, doesn't so good as for UrmaBlume but good enough too. Red spikes - buying volume, blues spikes - selling. Today accumulation have taken the place in three steps ( screenshots ). Just calculate volume on these spikes and you'll get commercial LONG volume. Would be interesting to see pictures from Urma.

 

Interesting screenshots boomerangas. Are you able/willing to share the code you use to construct these?

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Smart man, smart trading soft, smart answers :). Really, no answer what is commercial volume by your mean, but it's your choose you have provided enough of valuable info for us.

What's regarding the size of the trade i think it's useless because either large order is splitted and is shown as iceberg order. Example: 100 lot order is traded as 1-2-1-2-1-2-1-2

in matter of seconds. Either more often variance order is not shown at all - the price is driven to the "retail points" as i have mentioned above ( weekly trendline, 52 week high/low, swing high/low, fibonacci and so on ), this level is VIOLATED, stops were hit, and commercials unloads inventory as a passive buyers/sellers while stops are hitting their bids as on the yesterdays example. Look, what happened: price was driven to the 1100 level on ES, this level WAS VIOLATED, stops WAS COLLECTED by a passive commercial, which have putted the large bid which was not shown to any trader. Now we are ready to rebound on a daily charts? Let's see... What's regarding inventory here are another examples. As on Daily basis distribution on ES have taken place at 1165-1180 level, anything above was just stops running. You could see this on MarketProfile graphs and just with analyzing NET cumulative delta in either bloomberg soft either in any other like MarketDelta. Then, price was driven to the <1140 level, stops were hit, liquidity removed, market flash crashed on the may 6 and all this inventory was unloaded at ~1060-1090 level. Someone wanted quick profits and not to wait for a weeks when price will come to this point because of risk of rising economies. As i think all the UrmaBlume examples of TI was shown at these "intraday reaction points", because if you are large operator you need to create buying power or selling power. Market just oscillating between these points and i think we must primary track this, and intensity indicator just helps here.

With my respect to UrmaBlume i will not share neither sell my indicator, we have put tremendous amount of work in it and i don't need money. Instead, i could exchange it to some fresh genious ideas in trading volume.

 

Certainly size can show you that the commercial is present, i.e., the 2 lot trader never trades a 100 lot.

 

The issue with the efficacy of this approach is that you need to differentiate between commercial spec trades and commercial permium aribtrage.

 

The commercial who trades for premium capture doesn't care about price, he only cares about the ROI offered by the current permium level.

 

The commercial spec trader cares nothing about premium.

 

My head of technology has had 3 offers from 3 different hedge funds in the last 6 mos to build technology to disguise just such entries.

 

cheers

 

UB

 

Size alone is useless for this work.

 

PS Does anybody know what's wrong withthe search engine. I can search usernames but not keywords.

Edited by boomerangas

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Smart man, smart trading soft, smart answers :). Really, no answer what is commercial volume by your mean, but it's your choose you have provided enough of valuable info for us.

 

I don't need answers, just some hints. I've spent a year investigating about volume, prototyping, etc. so I find it fascinating.

 

What's regarding the size of the trade i think it's useless because either large order is splitted and is shown as iceberg order. Example: 100 lot order is traded as 1-2-1-2-1-2-1-2

 

The question is does the pro split into 1-2 lots or 10-20? That makes a difference.

 

in matter of seconds. Either more often variance order is not shown at all - the price is driven to the "retail points" as i have mentioned above ( weekly trendline, 52 week high/low, swing high/low, fibonacci and so on ), this level is VIOLATED, stops were hit, and commercials unloads inventory as a passive buyers/sellers while stops are hitting their bids as on the yesterdays example. Look, what happened: price was driven to the 1100 level on ES, this level WAS VIOLATED, stops WAS COLLECTED by a passive commercial, which have putted the large bid which was not shown to any trader. Now we

 

This low yesterday is a good example. My paintbar colors blue & magenta for above avg trade size and yellow for below average. Here's what the bottom looked like:

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=21069&stc=1&d=1274343858

 

Up until now I had thought that small trade size = amateurs. I often see yellow bars at the high or low of a move. I thought it was amateurs caught on the wrong side. But now I think it could also be the smart traders who split their orders into small lots. Often the yellow bar will come after the low, that could be the smart traders buying without driving price up and without showing a large order on the book.

 

This idea of detecting splitting has opened up a whole new set of doors for me.

 

Here is an example of my "pace of tape" indicator which measures the intensity of ticks but doesn't (yet) use volume. Anyone interested can find a short video about it and download it for Ninjatrader & Multicharts from my blog.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=21070&stc=1&d=1274344189

 

It's not comparable to urma's but it has been a great learning experience for me.

5aa71007c81b0_ESlowat1100.thumb.png.86677308b9a9eee45fb74c89bd34d413.png

5aa71007d20da_paceoftape-tradeintensityexampleonfesx20100517.thumb.png.f34fa9c95917af85d96424778ad0dfa8.png

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....... and commercials unloads inventory as a passive buyers/sellers while stops are hitting their bids as on the yesterdays example.......

 

This is something that is really quite important. Most of the approaches that start with the premise that trade direction can be determined by looking at the last price with respect to best bid and ask neglect this phenomena. An advance can be stopped by aggressive buyers running out of steam or by passive sellers standing firm.

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I'd like to suggest to you, blowfish, as to the good programmer to write some indicator which measures passive pressure to the price. Let's say trendline was breaked to the downside, volume is rising, it's selling volume but price is going nowhere. Or it is going down just for a 2 ticks, when, comparing to the normal volume, which is taken from the past ( database ) it should go for a 10 ticks down. As a result there is some passive buying activity here. I think we should measure volume/price changes to determine how do volume affects price comparing to the normal activity to gain some edge in these markets. What do you think, is there any way to measure this?

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I'd like to suggest to you, blowfish, as to the good programmer to write some indicator which measures passive pressure to the price. Let's say trendline was breaked to the downside, volume is rising, it's selling volume but price is going nowhere. Or it is going down just for a 2 ticks, when, comparing to the normal volume, which is taken from the past ( database ) it should go for a 10 ticks down. As a result there is some passive buying activity here. I think we should measure volume/price changes to determine how do volume affects price comparing to the normal activity to gain some edge in these markets. What do you think, is there any way to measure this?

 

Barry of Emini watch has an indicator that does something similar. It's called "Better Volume", it's free with the source code. it looks for a high volume bar with a small range. The small range means the volume couldn't move the price and it's likely to reverse.

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Yeah, i know that, Cunparis, thanks. Bur really no edge here, because it could be just comercial volume absorbing all the retail traders volume near expected high.

 

Barry of Emini watch has an indicator that does something similar. It's called "Better Volume", it's free with the source code. it looks for a high volume bar with a small range. The small range means the volume couldn't move the price and it's likely to reverse.

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just to add spice to the mix.:):2c::2c::2c::2c::2c::2c::2c:

If you think you can actually determine who is buying or selling - then you are kidding yourself.

Nice intellectual idea, however even determining who is the smart/dumb money, institutional/commercial/retail money is irrelevant. Nice idea to chop everything up and look at the markets in a different manner..... however looking at a market differently will not change how the market moves.

 

If determining weather or not certain trade patterns in volume help determine as a filter a continuation or reversing pattern...... then maybe there is value.

It all seems to boil down to the whole conundrum of context and pattern recognition.

 

There are too many assumptions to believe that you can tell who is doing what, and more importantly the relevance of the situation. Professionals get it wrong just as often as others, and quite frankly for futures its a zero sum game, so how is all this relevant.

What is the relevance of another indicator?

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just to add spice to the mix.:):2c::2c::2c::2c::2c::2c::2c:

If you think you can actually determine who is buying or selling - then you are kidding yourself.Nice intellectual idea, however even determining who is the smart/dumb money, institutional/commercial/retail money is irrelevant. Nice idea to chop everything up and look at the markets in a different manner..... however looking at a market differently will not change how the market moves.

 

If determining weather or not certain trade patterns in volume help determine as a filter a continuation or reversing pattern...... then maybe there is value.

It all seems to boil down to the whole conundrum of context and pattern recognition.

 

There are too many assumptions to believe that you can tell who is doing what, and more importantly the relevance of the situation. Professionals get it wrong just as often as others, and quite frankly for futures its a zero sum game, so how is all this relevant.

What is the relevance of another indicator?

 

 

It is an absolute fact that some technical traders can indeed "actually determine who is buying or selling - then you are kidding yourself" and it is also an absolute fact that some others can not

 

The chart below is based entirely on our determination of the balance of trade by commercial traders.

 

You will notice net commercial trade is going straight up. You will notice only blue bars and no selling signals at all.

 

The + is a recommended entry point, the red dot a stop and the blue dot a recommended scalping point.

 

The text suggests the TradePoints for entry, stop and scalp for the current bar and is updated every tick. When there is no recommended trade as when the bars are gray then "NO TRADE" is posted.

 

This chart is from today's open at 0630

 

tpt029.jpg

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As of this writing the ES top of 0707 PST Today 05/21 has been good for 14 pts and shows a definite change in sentiment.

 

The 2 charts below reflect some of the ways we read the formation of extremes in real time.

 

The first chart shows a strong negative divergence between the balance of commercial trade and price.

 

The second chart shows the huge intensity selling spikes that formed the extreme at 0706one minute BEFORE the absolute high price.

 

 

tpt030.jpg

 

Spikes in Commercial Intensity (Selling)

 

tpt031.jpg

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Can't agree with you. There is several ways how to filter out "smart money" and "dumb money", it's very difficult to trade it, because more often than not it's counter-trend moves and it's more context trading, not pure mechanical trading. You should use your brains to analyze what's trying to do commercial's brains.

Yes, i agree futures is a zero-sum game but look, GS and JPM made money at the first quarter EVERY single day. It averaged 25m-100m a day. How do you think where all the money came from amd who are on the loss side :)?

Question to Urmablume:

Could you post earlier overnight screenshots of the action of predictive agents. I think any agent and any indicator wasn't able to predict today's short covering rally because all the night till 6.30 am commercials was pushing price down just to violate 1158 and 1156 levels. At 6.30 came pure reversal trend trade occured.

 

QUOTE=SIUYA;96859]just to add spice to the mix.:):2c::2c::2c::2c::2c::2c::2c:

If you think you can actually determine who is buying or selling - then you are kidding yourself.

Nice intellectual idea, however even determining who is the smart/dumb money, institutional/commercial/retail money is irrelevant. Nice idea to chop everything up and look at the markets in a different manner..... however looking at a market differently will not change how the market moves.

 

If determining weather or not certain trade patterns in volume help determine as a filter a continuation or reversing pattern...... then maybe there is value.

It all seems to boil down to the whole conundrum of context and pattern recognition.

 

There are too many assumptions to believe that you can tell who is doing what, and more importantly the relevance of the situation. Professionals get it wrong just as often as others, and quite frankly for futures its a zero sum game, so how is all this relevant.

What is the relevance of another indicator?

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Question to Urmablume:

Could you post earlier overnight screenshots of the action of predictive agents. I think any agent and any indicator wasn't able to predict today's short covering rally because all the night till 6.30 am commercials was pushing price down just to violate 1158 and 1156 levels. At 6.30 came pure reversal trend trade occured. ?

 

Boomerangas,

 

All you have to do is read the strong buy intensity spikes that were right after the open and look at the first chart below which nailed the entire run up.

 

There were specific entry points (all buys) by our agents for the whole move up. The 2 charts below show the formation of the top. Buying from 3 mins after the open until the very top at 0707 when a sell was given as demonstrated in this post.

 

tpt029.jpg

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As of this writing the ES top of 0707 PST Today 05/21 has been good for 14 pts and shows a definite change in sentiment.

 

Urma,

 

can you post your chart for the time around 10 minutes earlier? I got several spikes on my chart and I'm curious if you have the same. Your 7:07 is my 16:07.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=21111&stc=1&d=1274456286

5aa710090c48d_es1607top.png.e2a398a657007715ec9bfa3820f7c0a4.png

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Urma,can you post your chart for the time around 10 minutes earlier? I got several spikes on my chart and I'm curious if you have the same. Your 7:07 is my 16:07.

 

Sure.

 

Here is a shot of the signals given by the intelligent agents described in the OP from just before the local extreme at 0707 until the recent new high.

 

Gray bars - NO TRADE, blue TradePoints, Long - Red for shorts.

 

tpt032.jpg

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Sure.

 

Here is a shot of the signals given by the intelligent agents described in the OP from just before the local extreme at 0707 until the recent new high.

 

Gray bars - NO TRADE, blue TradePoints, Long - Red for shorts.

 

[/center]

 

Thanks. I would like to see your spikes for 6:45 to 7:07 your time.

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Just a couple of points.

 

1. You do not need trade intensity to understand where turning points occur.

2. If you are intimately familiar with the ES, you can get a good understanding of the size of prints which occur at major reversal points.

3. In a Bull as strong as what we had this morning, it was not difficult to understand where to pick pullbacks, all you needed to do was wait for a confirmed change in momentum and price indicators alone were sufficient for this.

4. If you did your homework you would notice that intensity spikes likely took place at High Volume and Low Volume Nodes on a volume profile. Viewing the prints alone at these levels were indicative that heavy volume was being unloaded in these areas in a very tight congested range following up to these points of confluence. You did not need trade intensity to determine this.

 

There is no "perfect" way to trade and many of the topics described in this thread can be replicated using market delta. If you can understand orderflow and choose areas where you think institutions are likely to participate you can do fine with just the DOM, prints at a given price, delta and a volume profile chart.

 

Re Urmablume's charts. Whatever they are, the one showing the negative divergence can be replicated using delta momentum in market delta. Perhaps it might not be exact, but the chart that I use looks nearly identical to what UM has posted.

 

Try watching trade intensity during a bear and it will spike to your hearts desire. These spikes do not necessarily imply that it's time to buy (or sell).

 

Cheers!

Edited by davewolfs

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Interesting.....I am sure if you can actually front run (otherwise why say this is predictive?) or even tell exactly what goldmans and morgans etc are actually doing in terms of their trades then they would be very happy and interested to hear that.

If you have worked inside some of these places you will understand where they make a lot of their money - market making not trading, OTCs and options. Additionally a lot of the time, they are not 100% sure of where they make their money trading and tracking all their positions.

For a good laugh on this point read the Big short, and have a think about the recent GFC.

 

I have no problems with indicators that track divergences, volume and the like, it is just as a natural born skeptic find it hard to believe someone can make the claim as fact they are tracking actual orders for certain clients and market participants. I am sure this is not what is being claimed.

As was mentioned, a lot has to do with context and discretion and common sense and this indicator can help visualize elements of that.

(please take this in a positive light of a discussion point, not as an attack on anything in particular, except claims of fact that are next to impossible to prove)

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So, ultimately, is it possible or not, to differentiate the actions of Big Players at important price points. :(

 

Specially after this CME change issue !

 

Can we reconstruct the Big Lot trades, which are being chopped into small sizes and being fed into the markets as "passive stop trades", or sometimes as "active market trades" also ?

 

It is not necessary that such big orders get executed into smaller trades within a distance of just a few milliseconds. It might get executed in few seconds interval also, which makes the stuff complex. Otherwise just combining the same direction trades within few milliseconds might have given some results.

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My answer will be very simple. Any indicator, any ultra high-speed quant trading system, as Urma's system or reproduced TI indicator which i'm using DO NOT provide ultimate edge. You can't automate these things, because the very first channel of the price will wipe out all the earlier profits. Could these things help? For sure yes, but it's not uncommon to see the high intensity spikes near support/resistance levels, for the price just to pop up from here for several ticks and to break support/resistance just a few seconds later. I think UrmaBlume could would agree with it. You can't know who's driving move either commercial, which trades on 240 min timeframe either much larger, which basically trades on weekly timeframe an he covered 1/100 of his position on the spike just to throw price much much lower later. Personally i'm watching support/resistance, spikes near here, delta divergence in MD soft, cumulative delta, but the main thing is VALUE and where do Institutionals plan to accumulate/unload inventory, as i said in earlier posts. Yesterday HUGE short inventory was unloaded at the <1058 level, which was accumulated at 1165-1180 level. Any TI indicator couldn't tell you is it real breakout or just the shorts unloading inventory. So i'd suggest to just observe inventory and cumulative delta studies, or to trade pure order flow. Will it be delta studies, candlestick patterns or pure trendlines any volume/divergence/intensity indicator will be just a 10% helper here. I think the ultimate edge of UrmaBlume studies is not his indicators but himself with 30+ years of expirience, if for sure he is profitable trader.

 

 

 

QUOTE=SIUYA;96936]Interesting.....I am sure if you can actually front run (otherwise why say this is predictive?) or even tell exactly what goldmans and morgans etc are actually doing in terms of their trades then they would be very happy and interested to hear that.

If you have worked inside some of these places you will understand where they make a lot of their money - market making not trading, OTCs and options. Additionally a lot of the time, they are not 100% sure of where they make their money trading and tracking all their positions.

For a good laugh on this point read the Big short, and have a think about the recent GFC.

 

I have no problems with indicators that track divergences, volume and the like, it is just as a natural born skeptic find it hard to believe someone can make the claim as fact they are tracking actual orders for certain clients and market participants. I am sure this is not what is being claimed.

As was mentioned, a lot has to do with context and discretion and common sense and this indicator can help visualize elements of that.

(please take this in a positive light of a discussion point, not as an attack on anything in particular, except claims of fact that are next to impossible to prove)

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Just a couple of points.

 

1. You do not need trade intensity to understand where turning points occur.

2. If you are intimately familiar with the ES, you can get a good understanding of the size of prints which occur at major reversal points.

3. In a Bull as strong as what we had this morning, it was not difficult to understand where to pick pullbacks, all you needed to do was wait for a confirmed change in momentum and price indicators alone were sufficient for this.

4. If you did your homework you would notice that intensity spikes likely took place at High Volume and Low Volume Nodes on a volume profile. Viewing the prints alone at these levels were indicative that heavy volume was being unloaded in these areas in a very tight congested range following up to these points of confluence. You did not need trade intensity to determine this.

 

There is no "perfect" way to trade and many of the topics described in this thread can be replicated using market delta. If you can understand orderflow and choose areas where you think institutions are likely to participate you can do fine with just the DOM, prints at a given price, delta and a volume profile chart.

 

Re Urmablume's charts. Whatever they are, the one showing the negative divergence can be replicated using delta momentum in market delta. Perhaps it might not be exact, but the chart that I use looks nearly identical to what UM has posted.

 

Try watching trade intensity during a bear and it will spike to your hearts desire. These spikes do not necessarily imply that it's time to buy (or sell).

 

Cheers!

 

you are saying a lot of nothing.

 

> 1. You do not need trade intensity to...

 

you don't need anything to do anything...

what the poster showing is "his" way of doing things

everybody knows there are more than one way to skin a cat

 

>2. If you are intimately familiar with...

 

If you are intimately familiar with the market, you can simply read price. You don't need any method or indicators

 

>There is no "perfect" way to...

 

oops... more of nothing again.

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    • Metro Line 2 Some mask up and prep to accept ‘Freedom Passes’ - if you test negative twice a week...  and coming soon to a province near you. if you test high social score twice a week ... To others, there was never a pandemic at all ...  simply because the covid death rate per capita never reached anywhere near ‘pandemic’ levels.  Despite constant hypnotism to the contrary,  without really demented statistical skewing the covid death rate per capita would be lower than that of typical flu strains.   Whatever ‘state’ you live in - Step up and take full responsibility for your own immune system. BREAK the lockdowns NOW!   That is not how exposure is prevented.   That is not how a species deals with viruses.    Healthy people should move about normally - WIHOUT MASKS!  Vulnerable people should stay close to home and be protected with as many precautions as possible.     Culture:  It is undeniable that liberty can be used to take liberty.  I’m just sayin’ ... 
    • In general I agree. But how can we explain stagnation in those econimic areas where public policies are more proactive?
    • NASDAQ 100 PRICE ANALYSIS — DECEMBER 1 The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) has rounded off November on a positive note, after the month up by more than 11%. This surge was mainly stimulated by the recently-concluded US Presidential election and the discovery of potential COVID-19 vaccines. These themes were the major dominating fundamental factors through November, as hopes for things to go back to normal (pre-covid) ignited some sectoral rotation. The rotation occurred mainly between work-from-home stocks and traditional businesses, which helped indexes like the Dow Jones (DJIA) and Russell 2000 take the lead from the Nasdaq 100. Nonetheless, the NDX remains in a favorable position as markets enter the close of 2020. That said, stimulus hopes and potential political stalemate in Washington over most of President-elect Biden’s policies could cause the Federal Reserve to maintain its dovish outlook, which would be very beneficial for NDX bulls. That said, it is likely that there are tailwinds present in the equity market ahead of December and 2021. However, there’s the possibility that the NDX could fall into consolidation before we see a continuation to the upside, as the US Presidential election-induced volatility has now been weaned out of the market. Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Value Forecast — December 1 NDX Major Bias: Bullish Supply Levels: 12300, 12370, and 12439. Demand Levels: 12220, 12000, and 11890. The NDX is on an aggressive bullish rally as it inches closer to its all-time high at 12439. At the moment, the 12220 support will likely prevent any sustained decline given the confluence of indicators (ascending trendline and 12220 crucial support) at that level. We expect the NDX to break its previous all-time high and record new peaks in the coming days before consolidation likely sets in.   Source: https://learn2.trade 
    • GERMANY 30 (DE30EUR) IS IN A DOWNWARD MOVE, MAY FALL TO LEVEL 13153.70 Key Resistance Zones: 13600, 14000, 14400 Key Support Zones: 11200, 10800, 10400 Germany 30 (DE30EUR) Long-term Trend: Bullish The index is an upward move but it is facing resistance at level 13200. It must have reached bullish exhaustion as it faces rejection. On November 10, a retraced candle body tested the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement. This indicates that the index will rise to level 1.1129 and perhaps reversed. DE30EUR – Daily Chart Daily Chart Indicators Reading: Presently, the SMAs are sloping upward indicating the uptrend. The index is at level 64 of the Relative Strength Index period 14. This indicates that it is in the uptrend zone and above the centerline 50. Germany 30 (DE30EUR) Medium-term Trend: Bullish On the 4- hour chart, the index is in a downward move. On November 30 downtrend, a retraced candle body tested the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This implies that the index will fall and reach level 1.618 Fibonacci extension. DE30EUR – 2 Hour Chart 4-hour Chart Indicators Reading The market is below the 80% range of the daily stochastic. It indicates that the index is in a bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the 50-day SMA and the 21-day SMA are sloping upward indicating the uptrend. General Outlook for Germany 30 (DE30EUR) DE30EUR is likely to take a downward movement. The index has been trading in the overbought region. Sellers may emerge to push prices down. However, in a trending market, the overbought condition may not hold. That is the pair will continue to rise. Source: https://learn2.trade 
    • Date : 30th November 2020. Events to Look Out for This Week.Europe and US are in the middle of a second wave of Covid-19 infections. The prospect of another hit to the economy in Q4 and emerging lockdown disruptions.still leaves central banks and fiscal authorities in crisis mode, but positive news on the vaccine front leaves investors looking ahead to the recovery. Next week’s focus will remain on the virus, Brexit as the latest and supposedly final deadline, is next Tuesday, OPEC+ group which will also decide on extending prevailing quota restrictions next Tuesday, and on the Non-Farm Payroll outcome. Monday – 30 November 2020   Eurogroup Meeting Non-Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:00) – The Non-manufacturing PMI is expected to slowdown to 52.1 from 56.2 in October. Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 13:00) – The German HICP preliminary inflation for November is anticipated to remain unchanged at -0.5% y/y. Pending Home Sales (USD, GMT 15:00) – Pending home sales experienced a minor decline at -2.2% in September after four consecutive months of contract activity growth/ For October we could further decline to -2.6%. Tuesday – 01 December 2020   RBA Rate Statement & Interest Rate (AUD, GMT 03:30) – In the last meeting, RBA stepped up stimulus to ensure recovery by announcing a package of measures designed to secure a rapid recovery from the crisis now that lockdowns have lifted. RBA’s Lowe also stated that he sees no appetite to go into negative rates. The central bank head send a pretty clear signal that the focus now has shifted to asset purchases, with no appetite at the central bank to move into negative rate territory. Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Preliminary November inflation expected to remain unchanged at -0.3% y/y in the final reading for September, unchanged from the preliminary release. Core inflation meanwhile declined to 0.2% y/y and while special factors are playing a role, officials clearly are increasingly concerned that the prolonged period of underinflation and now negative headline rates will prompt a more lasting shift in price expectations, which against the background of a sizeable output gap and rising unemployment lifts the risk of real deflation down the line. Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Canada GDP results for the Q3 are seen to be slowing down, at a yearly rate of -39.6% compared to 38.7% last month. ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – US manufacturing PMI is expected to fall to 57.5 in November from a 2-year high of 59.3 in October. We’re seeing a modest November pull-back in available producer sentiment measures to still-elevated levels, as output is continuing to rise in the face of plunging inventories and rising sales, with limited headwinds from delayed stimulus and continued virus outbreaks. Fed’s Governor Powell testimony (USD, GMT 15:00) Wednesday – 02 December 2020   RBA’s Governor Lowe speech (AUD, GMT 00:00) Gross Domestic Product (AUD, GMT 00:30) – GDP is the economy’s most important figure. Q3 GDP is expected to confirm slowdown to -7.8% q/q and -7.2% y/y. Retail Sales (EUR, GMT 07:00) – German sales are anticipated to have fallen slightly to -0.8% in October, compared to -2.2% m/m in September. ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 13:15) – The ADP Employment survey is seen at 500k for November compared to the 365K in October. Thursday – 03 December 2020   Trade Balance (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Australian retail trade is expected to see a strong decline in August, at -8.5% y/y from the downwards revision in June at -2.9% y/y. Retail Sales (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Retail Sales dropped -2.0% m/m in September, more than anticipated. It left the annual rate still at 2.2% y/y, indicating a pick up compared to the same months last year, but different sales season amid the pandemic distort the picture and the annual rate is actually down from 4.2% y/y in the previous month. ISM Service PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – US Markit October services PMI was revised up to 56.9 in the final read versus 56.0 in the preliminary. It’s the best reading since April 2015 and is a third month in expansion. In November the ISM Service PMI is seen at 56.4. Friday – 04 December 2020   Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 00:30) – October’s Retail sales could be improved by 1.6%, following a -1.1% September loss. Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 13:30) – Expectations are for the headline number to be around 750k in November, after gains of 638k in October, 672k in September. The jobless rate should fall to 6.8% from 6.9% in October, versus a 14.7% peak in April. Average hourly earnings are assumed to rise 0.1% in November, with a headwind from further unwinds of the April distortion from the concentration of layoffs in low-wage categories slows. This translates to a y/y gain of 4.2%, down from 4.5%. We expect the payroll rebound to continue through year-end, though the climb is leaving a net drop for employment for 2020 overall. Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Canadian data coincides with the USA release today with dire expectations for a slight deduction in Unemployment to 8.8% from 8.9% last month and a rise from the 83.6 in October for employment, to 100k. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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