Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

UrmaBlume

Today's Action by Intelligent/Predictive Agents

Recommended Posts

Today's (04/27) action in ES has offered better trading opportunities than we have seen in that particular contract in some time.

 

In This Thread I discussed the practical applications of some of the predictive agents we use in our trading.

 

These agents receive inputs from time of day normalized percentage of normal commercial participation and bias as well as a host of bias inputs calculated as described in This Thread. This information is stored in global variables and processed by the agents working on that particular chart.

 

The agents then auto-post TradePoints or NoTrade recommendations. We define a TradePoint as a particular point in the Price/Time/Volume continuum where a specific action is recommended.

 

Here is a shot of some of today's action showing such a recommendation. These texts are updated every tick and are for the current bar. The smaller red dots are stops, the small blue dots are take profits for scalpers and the + is a recommended entry price.

 

 

tpt018.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi Urma, I've been following your threads with great curiosity. I've done a lot of research into volume and written several indicators to help me analyze volume and use it in my trading. I have a trade intensity indicator but it's no where near as sophisticated as yours. ;)

 

I'm really curious how you classify volume as "commercial". Currently I do this by looking at above average trade size. From reading your posts, if I understand correctly, a large trade size isn't the smart money you're tracking. If you could elaborate on how you classify commercial activity that would be very helpful.

 

Thanks

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've been following all the threads, started by UrmaBlume and i've developed trade intensity indicator. Personally i don't know is it 100% replica of original TI but it seems that UrmaBlume keeps this secret because he doesn't answered to any of my questions, just gave some hints. I like blowfish's idea and am sharing this idea. It would be interesting to hear UrmaBlume, but here is my opinion:

velocity of trade = price/time. Trade intensity = velocity of trade/time. Really my indicator measures with a 1/1000 sec precise how fast timestamps are moving and is it buying/selling tick. You could often observe, that commercial volume entered at specific levels ( pivots, trendline break and so on ), where all the retail traders are ripped. I observing this abnormal volume comparing this to the normal volume at this moment of the day and am calculating the total volume which have occured at these spikes. The total volume at the spike = acuumulated/distributed commercial volume. It seems that it works in some way for me, doesn't so good as for UrmaBlume but good enough too. Red spikes - buying volume, blues spikes - selling. Today accumulation have taken the place in three steps ( screenshots ). Just calculate volume on these spikes and you'll get commercial LONG volume. Would be interesting to see pictures from Urma.

1.thumb.jpg.158b83d506ea4d32772ec90b5c1b887e.jpg

2.thumb.jpg.27f3a61e0693f6cf784441cd4f779215.jpg

3.thumb.jpg.f5a81d1f2ab5bd3b0c221b103efaa15e.jpg

Edited by boomerangas

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi Urma, I've been following your threads with great curiosity. I've done a lot of research into volume and written several indicators to help me analyze volume and use it in my trading. I have a trade intensity indicator but it's no where near as sophisticated as yours. ;)

 

I'm really curious how you classify volume as "commercial". Currently I do this by looking at above average trade size. From reading your posts, if I understand correctly, a large trade size isn't the smart money you're tracking. If you could elaborate on how you classify commercial activity that would be very helpful.

Thanks

 

Certainly size can show you that the commercial is present, i.e., the 2 lot trader never trades a 100 lot.

 

The issue with the efficacy of this approach is that you need to differentiate between commercial spec trades and commercial permium aribtrage.

 

The commercial who trades for premium capture doesn't care about price, he only cares about the ROI offered by the current permium level.

 

The commercial spec trader cares nothing about premium.

 

My head of technology has had 3 offers from 3 different hedge funds in the last 6 mos to build technology to disguise just such entries.

 

cheers

 

UB

 

Size alone is useless for this work.

 

PS Does anybody know what's wrong withthe search engine. I can search usernames but not keywords.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I've been following all the threads, started by UrmaBlume and i've developed trade intensity indicator. Personally i don't know is it 100% replica of original TI but it seems that UrmaBlume keeps this secret because he doesn't answered to any of my questions, just gave some hints. I like blowfish's idea and am sharing this idea. It would be interesting to hear UrmaBlume, but here is my opinion:

velocity of trade = price/time. Trade intensity = velocity of trade/time. Really my indicator measures with a 1/1000 sec precise how fast timestamps are moving and is it buying/selling tick. You could often observe, that commercial volume entered at specific levels ( pivots, trendline break and so on ), where all the retail traders are ripped. I observing this abnormal volume comparing this to the normal volume at this moment of the day and am calculating the total volume which have occured at these spikes. The total volume at the spike = acuumulated/distributed commercial volume. It seems that it works in some way for me, doesn't so good as for UrmaBlume but good enough too. Red spikes - buying volume, blues spikes - selling. Today accumulation have taken the place in three steps ( screenshots ). Just calculate volume on these spikes and you'll get commercial LONG volume. Would be interesting to see pictures from Urma.

 

Interesting screenshots boomerangas. Are you able/willing to share the code you use to construct these?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Smart man, smart trading soft, smart answers :). Really, no answer what is commercial volume by your mean, but it's your choose you have provided enough of valuable info for us.

What's regarding the size of the trade i think it's useless because either large order is splitted and is shown as iceberg order. Example: 100 lot order is traded as 1-2-1-2-1-2-1-2

in matter of seconds. Either more often variance order is not shown at all - the price is driven to the "retail points" as i have mentioned above ( weekly trendline, 52 week high/low, swing high/low, fibonacci and so on ), this level is VIOLATED, stops were hit, and commercials unloads inventory as a passive buyers/sellers while stops are hitting their bids as on the yesterdays example. Look, what happened: price was driven to the 1100 level on ES, this level WAS VIOLATED, stops WAS COLLECTED by a passive commercial, which have putted the large bid which was not shown to any trader. Now we are ready to rebound on a daily charts? Let's see... What's regarding inventory here are another examples. As on Daily basis distribution on ES have taken place at 1165-1180 level, anything above was just stops running. You could see this on MarketProfile graphs and just with analyzing NET cumulative delta in either bloomberg soft either in any other like MarketDelta. Then, price was driven to the <1140 level, stops were hit, liquidity removed, market flash crashed on the may 6 and all this inventory was unloaded at ~1060-1090 level. Someone wanted quick profits and not to wait for a weeks when price will come to this point because of risk of rising economies. As i think all the UrmaBlume examples of TI was shown at these "intraday reaction points", because if you are large operator you need to create buying power or selling power. Market just oscillating between these points and i think we must primary track this, and intensity indicator just helps here.

With my respect to UrmaBlume i will not share neither sell my indicator, we have put tremendous amount of work in it and i don't need money. Instead, i could exchange it to some fresh genious ideas in trading volume.

 

Certainly size can show you that the commercial is present, i.e., the 2 lot trader never trades a 100 lot.

 

The issue with the efficacy of this approach is that you need to differentiate between commercial spec trades and commercial permium aribtrage.

 

The commercial who trades for premium capture doesn't care about price, he only cares about the ROI offered by the current permium level.

 

The commercial spec trader cares nothing about premium.

 

My head of technology has had 3 offers from 3 different hedge funds in the last 6 mos to build technology to disguise just such entries.

 

cheers

 

UB

 

Size alone is useless for this work.

 

PS Does anybody know what's wrong withthe search engine. I can search usernames but not keywords.

Edited by boomerangas

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Smart man, smart trading soft, smart answers :). Really, no answer what is commercial volume by your mean, but it's your choose you have provided enough of valuable info for us.

 

I don't need answers, just some hints. I've spent a year investigating about volume, prototyping, etc. so I find it fascinating.

 

What's regarding the size of the trade i think it's useless because either large order is splitted and is shown as iceberg order. Example: 100 lot order is traded as 1-2-1-2-1-2-1-2

 

The question is does the pro split into 1-2 lots or 10-20? That makes a difference.

 

in matter of seconds. Either more often variance order is not shown at all - the price is driven to the "retail points" as i have mentioned above ( weekly trendline, 52 week high/low, swing high/low, fibonacci and so on ), this level is VIOLATED, stops were hit, and commercials unloads inventory as a passive buyers/sellers while stops are hitting their bids as on the yesterdays example. Look, what happened: price was driven to the 1100 level on ES, this level WAS VIOLATED, stops WAS COLLECTED by a passive commercial, which have putted the large bid which was not shown to any trader. Now we

 

This low yesterday is a good example. My paintbar colors blue & magenta for above avg trade size and yellow for below average. Here's what the bottom looked like:

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=21069&stc=1&d=1274343858

 

Up until now I had thought that small trade size = amateurs. I often see yellow bars at the high or low of a move. I thought it was amateurs caught on the wrong side. But now I think it could also be the smart traders who split their orders into small lots. Often the yellow bar will come after the low, that could be the smart traders buying without driving price up and without showing a large order on the book.

 

This idea of detecting splitting has opened up a whole new set of doors for me.

 

Here is an example of my "pace of tape" indicator which measures the intensity of ticks but doesn't (yet) use volume. Anyone interested can find a short video about it and download it for Ninjatrader & Multicharts from my blog.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=21070&stc=1&d=1274344189

 

It's not comparable to urma's but it has been a great learning experience for me.

5aa71007c81b0_ESlowat1100.thumb.png.86677308b9a9eee45fb74c89bd34d413.png

5aa71007d20da_paceoftape-tradeintensityexampleonfesx20100517.thumb.png.f34fa9c95917af85d96424778ad0dfa8.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

....... and commercials unloads inventory as a passive buyers/sellers while stops are hitting their bids as on the yesterdays example.......

 

This is something that is really quite important. Most of the approaches that start with the premise that trade direction can be determined by looking at the last price with respect to best bid and ask neglect this phenomena. An advance can be stopped by aggressive buyers running out of steam or by passive sellers standing firm.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'd like to suggest to you, blowfish, as to the good programmer to write some indicator which measures passive pressure to the price. Let's say trendline was breaked to the downside, volume is rising, it's selling volume but price is going nowhere. Or it is going down just for a 2 ticks, when, comparing to the normal volume, which is taken from the past ( database ) it should go for a 10 ticks down. As a result there is some passive buying activity here. I think we should measure volume/price changes to determine how do volume affects price comparing to the normal activity to gain some edge in these markets. What do you think, is there any way to measure this?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'd like to suggest to you, blowfish, as to the good programmer to write some indicator which measures passive pressure to the price. Let's say trendline was breaked to the downside, volume is rising, it's selling volume but price is going nowhere. Or it is going down just for a 2 ticks, when, comparing to the normal volume, which is taken from the past ( database ) it should go for a 10 ticks down. As a result there is some passive buying activity here. I think we should measure volume/price changes to determine how do volume affects price comparing to the normal activity to gain some edge in these markets. What do you think, is there any way to measure this?

 

Barry of Emini watch has an indicator that does something similar. It's called "Better Volume", it's free with the source code. it looks for a high volume bar with a small range. The small range means the volume couldn't move the price and it's likely to reverse.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, i know that, Cunparis, thanks. Bur really no edge here, because it could be just comercial volume absorbing all the retail traders volume near expected high.

 

Barry of Emini watch has an indicator that does something similar. It's called "Better Volume", it's free with the source code. it looks for a high volume bar with a small range. The small range means the volume couldn't move the price and it's likely to reverse.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

just to add spice to the mix.:):2c::2c::2c::2c::2c::2c::2c:

If you think you can actually determine who is buying or selling - then you are kidding yourself.

Nice intellectual idea, however even determining who is the smart/dumb money, institutional/commercial/retail money is irrelevant. Nice idea to chop everything up and look at the markets in a different manner..... however looking at a market differently will not change how the market moves.

 

If determining weather or not certain trade patterns in volume help determine as a filter a continuation or reversing pattern...... then maybe there is value.

It all seems to boil down to the whole conundrum of context and pattern recognition.

 

There are too many assumptions to believe that you can tell who is doing what, and more importantly the relevance of the situation. Professionals get it wrong just as often as others, and quite frankly for futures its a zero sum game, so how is all this relevant.

What is the relevance of another indicator?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
just to add spice to the mix.:):2c::2c::2c::2c::2c::2c::2c:

If you think you can actually determine who is buying or selling - then you are kidding yourself.Nice intellectual idea, however even determining who is the smart/dumb money, institutional/commercial/retail money is irrelevant. Nice idea to chop everything up and look at the markets in a different manner..... however looking at a market differently will not change how the market moves.

 

If determining weather or not certain trade patterns in volume help determine as a filter a continuation or reversing pattern...... then maybe there is value.

It all seems to boil down to the whole conundrum of context and pattern recognition.

 

There are too many assumptions to believe that you can tell who is doing what, and more importantly the relevance of the situation. Professionals get it wrong just as often as others, and quite frankly for futures its a zero sum game, so how is all this relevant.

What is the relevance of another indicator?

 

 

It is an absolute fact that some technical traders can indeed "actually determine who is buying or selling - then you are kidding yourself" and it is also an absolute fact that some others can not

 

The chart below is based entirely on our determination of the balance of trade by commercial traders.

 

You will notice net commercial trade is going straight up. You will notice only blue bars and no selling signals at all.

 

The + is a recommended entry point, the red dot a stop and the blue dot a recommended scalping point.

 

The text suggests the TradePoints for entry, stop and scalp for the current bar and is updated every tick. When there is no recommended trade as when the bars are gray then "NO TRADE" is posted.

 

This chart is from today's open at 0630

 

tpt029.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As of this writing the ES top of 0707 PST Today 05/21 has been good for 14 pts and shows a definite change in sentiment.

 

The 2 charts below reflect some of the ways we read the formation of extremes in real time.

 

The first chart shows a strong negative divergence between the balance of commercial trade and price.

 

The second chart shows the huge intensity selling spikes that formed the extreme at 0706one minute BEFORE the absolute high price.

 

 

tpt030.jpg

 

Spikes in Commercial Intensity (Selling)

 

tpt031.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Can't agree with you. There is several ways how to filter out "smart money" and "dumb money", it's very difficult to trade it, because more often than not it's counter-trend moves and it's more context trading, not pure mechanical trading. You should use your brains to analyze what's trying to do commercial's brains.

Yes, i agree futures is a zero-sum game but look, GS and JPM made money at the first quarter EVERY single day. It averaged 25m-100m a day. How do you think where all the money came from amd who are on the loss side :)?

Question to Urmablume:

Could you post earlier overnight screenshots of the action of predictive agents. I think any agent and any indicator wasn't able to predict today's short covering rally because all the night till 6.30 am commercials was pushing price down just to violate 1158 and 1156 levels. At 6.30 came pure reversal trend trade occured.

 

QUOTE=SIUYA;96859]just to add spice to the mix.:):2c::2c::2c::2c::2c::2c::2c:

If you think you can actually determine who is buying or selling - then you are kidding yourself.

Nice intellectual idea, however even determining who is the smart/dumb money, institutional/commercial/retail money is irrelevant. Nice idea to chop everything up and look at the markets in a different manner..... however looking at a market differently will not change how the market moves.

 

If determining weather or not certain trade patterns in volume help determine as a filter a continuation or reversing pattern...... then maybe there is value.

It all seems to boil down to the whole conundrum of context and pattern recognition.

 

There are too many assumptions to believe that you can tell who is doing what, and more importantly the relevance of the situation. Professionals get it wrong just as often as others, and quite frankly for futures its a zero sum game, so how is all this relevant.

What is the relevance of another indicator?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Question to Urmablume:

Could you post earlier overnight screenshots of the action of predictive agents. I think any agent and any indicator wasn't able to predict today's short covering rally because all the night till 6.30 am commercials was pushing price down just to violate 1158 and 1156 levels. At 6.30 came pure reversal trend trade occured. ?

 

Boomerangas,

 

All you have to do is read the strong buy intensity spikes that were right after the open and look at the first chart below which nailed the entire run up.

 

There were specific entry points (all buys) by our agents for the whole move up. The 2 charts below show the formation of the top. Buying from 3 mins after the open until the very top at 0707 when a sell was given as demonstrated in this post.

 

tpt029.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
As of this writing the ES top of 0707 PST Today 05/21 has been good for 14 pts and shows a definite change in sentiment.

 

Urma,

 

can you post your chart for the time around 10 minutes earlier? I got several spikes on my chart and I'm curious if you have the same. Your 7:07 is my 16:07.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=21111&stc=1&d=1274456286

5aa710090c48d_es1607top.png.e2a398a657007715ec9bfa3820f7c0a4.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Urma,can you post your chart for the time around 10 minutes earlier? I got several spikes on my chart and I'm curious if you have the same. Your 7:07 is my 16:07.

 

Sure.

 

Here is a shot of the signals given by the intelligent agents described in the OP from just before the local extreme at 0707 until the recent new high.

 

Gray bars - NO TRADE, blue TradePoints, Long - Red for shorts.

 

tpt032.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Sure.

 

Here is a shot of the signals given by the intelligent agents described in the OP from just before the local extreme at 0707 until the recent new high.

 

Gray bars - NO TRADE, blue TradePoints, Long - Red for shorts.

 

[/center]

 

Thanks. I would like to see your spikes for 6:45 to 7:07 your time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just a couple of points.

 

1. You do not need trade intensity to understand where turning points occur.

2. If you are intimately familiar with the ES, you can get a good understanding of the size of prints which occur at major reversal points.

3. In a Bull as strong as what we had this morning, it was not difficult to understand where to pick pullbacks, all you needed to do was wait for a confirmed change in momentum and price indicators alone were sufficient for this.

4. If you did your homework you would notice that intensity spikes likely took place at High Volume and Low Volume Nodes on a volume profile. Viewing the prints alone at these levels were indicative that heavy volume was being unloaded in these areas in a very tight congested range following up to these points of confluence. You did not need trade intensity to determine this.

 

There is no "perfect" way to trade and many of the topics described in this thread can be replicated using market delta. If you can understand orderflow and choose areas where you think institutions are likely to participate you can do fine with just the DOM, prints at a given price, delta and a volume profile chart.

 

Re Urmablume's charts. Whatever they are, the one showing the negative divergence can be replicated using delta momentum in market delta. Perhaps it might not be exact, but the chart that I use looks nearly identical to what UM has posted.

 

Try watching trade intensity during a bear and it will spike to your hearts desire. These spikes do not necessarily imply that it's time to buy (or sell).

 

Cheers!

Edited by davewolfs

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting.....I am sure if you can actually front run (otherwise why say this is predictive?) or even tell exactly what goldmans and morgans etc are actually doing in terms of their trades then they would be very happy and interested to hear that.

If you have worked inside some of these places you will understand where they make a lot of their money - market making not trading, OTCs and options. Additionally a lot of the time, they are not 100% sure of where they make their money trading and tracking all their positions.

For a good laugh on this point read the Big short, and have a think about the recent GFC.

 

I have no problems with indicators that track divergences, volume and the like, it is just as a natural born skeptic find it hard to believe someone can make the claim as fact they are tracking actual orders for certain clients and market participants. I am sure this is not what is being claimed.

As was mentioned, a lot has to do with context and discretion and common sense and this indicator can help visualize elements of that.

(please take this in a positive light of a discussion point, not as an attack on anything in particular, except claims of fact that are next to impossible to prove)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So, ultimately, is it possible or not, to differentiate the actions of Big Players at important price points. :(

 

Specially after this CME change issue !

 

Can we reconstruct the Big Lot trades, which are being chopped into small sizes and being fed into the markets as "passive stop trades", or sometimes as "active market trades" also ?

 

It is not necessary that such big orders get executed into smaller trades within a distance of just a few milliseconds. It might get executed in few seconds interval also, which makes the stuff complex. Otherwise just combining the same direction trades within few milliseconds might have given some results.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My answer will be very simple. Any indicator, any ultra high-speed quant trading system, as Urma's system or reproduced TI indicator which i'm using DO NOT provide ultimate edge. You can't automate these things, because the very first channel of the price will wipe out all the earlier profits. Could these things help? For sure yes, but it's not uncommon to see the high intensity spikes near support/resistance levels, for the price just to pop up from here for several ticks and to break support/resistance just a few seconds later. I think UrmaBlume could would agree with it. You can't know who's driving move either commercial, which trades on 240 min timeframe either much larger, which basically trades on weekly timeframe an he covered 1/100 of his position on the spike just to throw price much much lower later. Personally i'm watching support/resistance, spikes near here, delta divergence in MD soft, cumulative delta, but the main thing is VALUE and where do Institutionals plan to accumulate/unload inventory, as i said in earlier posts. Yesterday HUGE short inventory was unloaded at the <1058 level, which was accumulated at 1165-1180 level. Any TI indicator couldn't tell you is it real breakout or just the shorts unloading inventory. So i'd suggest to just observe inventory and cumulative delta studies, or to trade pure order flow. Will it be delta studies, candlestick patterns or pure trendlines any volume/divergence/intensity indicator will be just a 10% helper here. I think the ultimate edge of UrmaBlume studies is not his indicators but himself with 30+ years of expirience, if for sure he is profitable trader.

 

 

 

QUOTE=SIUYA;96936]Interesting.....I am sure if you can actually front run (otherwise why say this is predictive?) or even tell exactly what goldmans and morgans etc are actually doing in terms of their trades then they would be very happy and interested to hear that.

If you have worked inside some of these places you will understand where they make a lot of their money - market making not trading, OTCs and options. Additionally a lot of the time, they are not 100% sure of where they make their money trading and tracking all their positions.

For a good laugh on this point read the Big short, and have a think about the recent GFC.

 

I have no problems with indicators that track divergences, volume and the like, it is just as a natural born skeptic find it hard to believe someone can make the claim as fact they are tracking actual orders for certain clients and market participants. I am sure this is not what is being claimed.

As was mentioned, a lot has to do with context and discretion and common sense and this indicator can help visualize elements of that.

(please take this in a positive light of a discussion point, not as an attack on anything in particular, except claims of fact that are next to impossible to prove)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just a couple of points.

 

1. You do not need trade intensity to understand where turning points occur.

2. If you are intimately familiar with the ES, you can get a good understanding of the size of prints which occur at major reversal points.

3. In a Bull as strong as what we had this morning, it was not difficult to understand where to pick pullbacks, all you needed to do was wait for a confirmed change in momentum and price indicators alone were sufficient for this.

4. If you did your homework you would notice that intensity spikes likely took place at High Volume and Low Volume Nodes on a volume profile. Viewing the prints alone at these levels were indicative that heavy volume was being unloaded in these areas in a very tight congested range following up to these points of confluence. You did not need trade intensity to determine this.

 

There is no "perfect" way to trade and many of the topics described in this thread can be replicated using market delta. If you can understand orderflow and choose areas where you think institutions are likely to participate you can do fine with just the DOM, prints at a given price, delta and a volume profile chart.

 

Re Urmablume's charts. Whatever they are, the one showing the negative divergence can be replicated using delta momentum in market delta. Perhaps it might not be exact, but the chart that I use looks nearly identical to what UM has posted.

 

Try watching trade intensity during a bear and it will spike to your hearts desire. These spikes do not necessarily imply that it's time to buy (or sell).

 

Cheers!

 

you are saying a lot of nothing.

 

> 1. You do not need trade intensity to...

 

you don't need anything to do anything...

what the poster showing is "his" way of doing things

everybody knows there are more than one way to skin a cat

 

>2. If you are intimately familiar with...

 

If you are intimately familiar with the market, you can simply read price. You don't need any method or indicators

 

>There is no "perfect" way to...

 

oops... more of nothing again.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date : 23rd October 2020.Dollar Dips as Equities escalate.EURUSD, H1 The Dollar fell back concomitantly with rallying European stock markets and US index futures, which was likely a repositioning dynamic after declining over the last two weeks.EURUSD rebounded quite strongly, rising back above 1.1850 from a three-day low at 1.1787. Preliminary October PMI data in the services and composite readings out of the Eurozone and UK undershot the median forecast of economists, but didn’t impact the Euro or Sterling. Technically, the H1 chart has moved over the 50-hour moving average (1.1835) to test R1 at 1.1852; above here is Wednesday’s high and R2 at 1.1885. Today’s pivot point is next support at 1.1830, below the 50-hour moving average. The MACD histogram has broken the zero line and the signal is starting to rise, although still south of the zero line, RSI is positive and trades at 64.50, Stochastics are moving into the OB zone.Cable settled at near net unchanged levels around 1.3090-95 after dropping back from a high at 1.3124. The UK currency remains comfortably up on week-ago and month-ago levels against the Dollar and Euro, and others, with market participants anticipating a limited trade deal between the EU and UK. The two sides are amid intensive face-to-face discussions. The UK and Japan today signed the trade deal that was agreed in principle a month ago.USDJPY is modestly softer after upside forays over the last day stalled at 104.93-95. At levels around 104.70, the pair remains down by 1% on the high seen on Wednesday. AUDUSD rallied to an eight-day high at 0.7158, floated by higher stock markets in Europe and an above-forecast composite PMI reading out of Australia. Global asset markets are likely to remain skittish, notwithstanding the rally today, with investors pondering the uncertainties presented by the surge in Covid cases in Europe and elsewhere, including now in many US states and in Canada, and which are leading to ever more restrictive countermeasures. The ongoing delay in new US fiscal stimulus and the event risk posed by the upcoming US elections are also in the mix. Regarding the elections, polls point to a Biden presidency, but it is less clear if his Democratic party can take control of the Senate. If not, then Congress will remain split at least until the mid-term elections in two years, which will limit the scope for policy changes and crimp Democrat ambitions for expansive fiscal policy.US data later is topped by flash PMI data, Manufacturing numbers are expected to show a slight rise to 53.5 from 53.2 last time, whilst the more important and significant Services numbers are expected to increase by a single tick from 54.6 to 54.7. The data is due at 13:45 GMT.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Good examples, near the top, for those who are time and attn. challenged https://www.thedailybell.com/all-articles/news-analysis/how-the-elite-use-attila-and-the-witch-doctor-to-keep-power/ Grasp alternatives https://tomluongo.me/2020/10/20/about-two-years-anarchy-capitalism/  
    • Date : 22nd October 2020.Volatility and US elections.US Elections had been and always expected to be an event historically extremely volatile globally. Elections similar to other political or banking sector events are notably treated by market participants with anticipation and speculation. As discussed in our HF Markets Q4 Outlook, markets look to have already pricing in the possibility of Biden’s victory even though they overall maintain an increasing cautious optimism, holding US Dollar basket to 2018 low territory.Election-year fund flows, 1993-2020Historically, it has been noticed that during election years, market participants due to the heightened uncertainty, shift their investments into Money market funds instead from the safety of stock and bond funds, AS THEY waiting out. The 2020 is not any different but it’s been a unique one as we have seen an extreme money flow into currency assets in comparison with past election years, due the sluggish US and worldwide economic activity as the Covid-19 crisis resumes, the truce with China again which is under scrutiny, the lockdowns in several areas, the lack of additional fiscal stimulus from central bankers, Brexit frictions and the fear of double dip recession in Europe.Year-to-date fund flows, through June 30Source: BlackRock, with data from Morningstar as of June 30, 2020. Money market funds, stock funds and bond funds are represented by their respective US fund categories as defined by Morningstar.That said, cash balance into money funds spike to $980 in 2020 as of June 30, given the large risk premia. However as soon as uncertainty recedes we might see equity market’s volatility and volume to spike again since they consider to be attractive and more stable assets in period which there are historically low interest rates. If we emphasize on the medium term thought it is expected that if current conditions sustained, market volatility will extend beyond Election days with any potential outcome, i.e. a Biden win and Democrat majority in Congress, a Biden win but split Congress, or a Trump victory with split Congress.Meanwhile, a very chart from Wells Fargo Investment Institute, shows the USA500 implied Volatility index along with USA500 index performance prior and post the Election Day based on the election since 1988 with 2008 recession year excluded. This chart interestingly suggest that typically the USA500 tends to eased/consolidate a bit a month prior elections despite a extremely high volatility, while USA500 price continue their upwards move after the election day even though volatility declines significantly.WELLS FARGO INVESTMENT INSTITUTEAlways trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.  
    • Date : 21st October 2020.USD Down, GBP & Crypto’s Higher, CAD data.The Dollar underperformed while the Pound outperformed and the Yen, diverging from its usual close correlation with the Dollar, was measuring as the second strongest of the main currencies. Global stock markets have been skittish, with European indices dropping and US equity index futures giving back gains in returning to near net unchanged levels.Sterling has rallied quite strongly, showing a 1.0%+ gain on the Dollar at prevailing levels, as it rallied to test 1.3100. EURGBP is back under 0.9100 and down over 0.5% and testing 0.9050. The market reacted to remarks from EU trade negotiator, Barnier, that talks with the UK could continue “day and night.” There was also news that US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said that a trade agreement with the UK would come “reasonably soon.” The currency market evidently remains bullish on the EU and UK reaching an agreement, although the game of chicken between the two sides is continuing. Boris Johnson’s position is that the EU must fundamentally change its stance, while France’s European affairs minister Clément Beaune asserted yesterday that there would be “no new approach.” USDJPY tumbled under 105.00 en-route to printing a one-month low at 104.55. EURUSD lifted to a one-month high at 1.1868.USDCAD posted a new low for a fourth consecutive day in pegging a six-week low at 1.3080 before recouping back above 1.3100 amid a near 2% drop in oil prices. USOil fell from the $41.88 highs seen on Tuesday to a low of $40.86 in London morning trade. The API reported a 600k bbl weekly inventory build after the close yesterday, versus expectations for a 2.0 mln bbl draw, which weighed on prices some. Inventories at the Cushing, OK storage hub were up by 1.2 mln bbls. Concerns over Covid related demand destruction, along with increased crude production from Libya, should keep a cap on prices for now. The EIA weekly inventory report is due at 14:30 GMT.Canada’s CPI accelerated and retail sales grew, but both measures were on the tame side. CPI rose 0.5% y/y in September after the 0.1% gain in August. But CPI dipped -0.1% on an m/m basis (nsa) after the -0.1% slip in August and flat (0.0%) reading in July. CPI last rose on an m/m basis in June, rising 0.8%. The average of the three core CPI measures was 1.7% y/y, matching the 1.7% average seen in August. The CPI report remains consistent with ample slack in the economy, with a long way to go before activity returns to pre-pandemic levels across all industries. Meanwhile, retail sales rose 0.4% in August (m/m, sa) after a 1.0% gain in July (revised from 0.6%). Statistics Canada’s preliminary estimate is for little change in September retail sales. Sales have returned to more typical growth rates following the initial pop that followed the reopening of the economy — sales surged 21.2% in May after plunging -24.8% in April and falling -10.0% in March. Retail sales jumped 22.5% in June, an all time high growth rate. The ex-autos sales aggregate gained 0.5% in August. Both measures undershot expectations for stronger gains. Tame annual CPI growth along with the deceleration in retail sales is consistent with steady, accommodative policy from the BoC for an extended period.Elsewhere, BTCUSD moved to 2020 highs after Paypal confirmed it will allow cryptocurrency buying, selling and shopping on its network.¹ The press release stated it “signaled its plans to significantly increase cryptocurrency’s utility by making it available as a funding source for purchases at its 26 million merchants worldwide. The company is introducing the ability to buy, hold and sell select cryptocurrencies, initially featuring Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash and Litecoin, directly within the PayPal digital wallet. The service will be available to PayPal account holders in the U.S. in the coming weeks.”Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • re racISM Seek the truth. Confront the lies.   Any white people who are racist are racist out of fear ... any 'supremacy' beliefs are compensatory.  Same with blacks... Seek the truth. Confront the lies.   Contrary to what you've been taught in school and now in culture, white people did not invent slavery.  Nor have they applied the most consistently horrific practices of slave owners, historically or currently.   Contrary to what you've been taught in school and now in culture, in fact, white people have done more to eradicate slavery / humans as property from the face of the earth than any other race - ever.   Seek the truth.  Confront the lies.  If you're white, don’t allow yourself to be guilted.   That just compounds the issues and divisions.   You are not individually or collectively responsible for the exploitation of minorities by a small percentage of psychopaths who happen to also be the same ‘race’ as you are ...  just because black people’s ‘self esteem’  generally needs to rise - especially those ‘trapped’ on the concrete plantations - is no reason your’s needs to fall ... don’t play into ivory tower false dialectic psyops designed to enslave EVERYBODY!   “A man’s rights rest in three boxes: the ballot box, the jury box, and the cartridge box.”  Frederick Douglass, 1867  civil rights leader in response to post-Civil War segregation laws... my god was that boy and this boy unwoke or what 
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.