Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

UrmaBlume

Trade Intensity

Recommended Posts

In most markets and certainly in the equity index futures markets there is a small set of very big traders whose entries into the market often have an immediate and very tradeable impact on price.

 

These traders go to great lengths to disquise their trade - they have automated routines to send a series of small transactions to the market at intervals close to 1000th of a second.

 

Because many of these traders operate from price based models they must get their execution within a very narrow price/time range which means they must execute as much of the volume they want as fast as they can while price is in that range. This results in a huge spike in what we call the intensity of trade.

 

To calulate the indicator shown below you must have a very expensive and almost zero latency data feed and be able to measure time in 1000ths of a second. The calculation of the indicator is merely so much volume over so little time.

 

The charts shown are in TradeStation. While TradeStation by itself doesn't have the ability to get nearly as granular with time the are dll's etc that can enable that most able platform for this work. This software is NOT for sale or lease.

 

To trade this indicator at optimal levels requires automated execution.

 

These plainly visable spikes in short term trade intensity occur between 12 and 30 times per session in the S&P.

 

Notice the time axis on the bottom of this first chart - the whole chart is a look inside 1 minute of trade.

 

 

tradeintensity2.jpg

 

 

This chart shows a similar spike in the intensity of trade

 

tradeintensity1.jpg

 

 

The same spikes happen at tops - this trade was good for 5 points in only 3 minutes - a great days trade in only 3 minutes

 

tradeintensity3.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wonder who's data feed you use? I've always found ZenFire to be good. I also wonder what sort of connection to the internet you have or do you run your trading application in a data centre? I'm pretty sure most of any latency I get under normal conditions is simply down to geographical location and the speed of light :)

 

I don't wish to quibble (but am going to anyway) but I think your 1000th of a second is probably off by an order of magnitude or two. Light would only travel about 3Km in that time for example, and the average hard disk seek time is almost 2 orders of magnitude greater than that.

 

Having said that I have no doubt that looking at volume with respect to very short time frames provides interesting data but wont a a simple 1 second chart with volume show a similar thing?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Having said that I have no doubt that looking at volume with respect to very short time frames provides interesting data but wont a a simple 1 second chart with volume show a similar thing?

 

Price is motivated by volume, not time. The granularity of an optimal data vessel is determined by units of trade and not units of time.

 

While I do believe that a 1 second bar chart would indeed reflect much of this same information, much would be lost by having any measure of time as the structure constant rather than units of trade.

 

In the emini S&P, which until very recently has traded an average of something over 2m contracts during the session, we demonstrate this data in a 25 contract bar which generates something just short of 100,000 bars per session. A 1 second chart would only generate 24,300 during the standard 405 minute day session and their rate of presentation would be constant rather than accelerating and and slowing down consistant with the rate of trade at the moment.

 

Time as a constant with regard to this kind of processing fails to report many very pertinent facts with regard to the balance and flow of trade and money in any market. A very compelling demonstration of this fact is accomplished by our Buy/Sell Volume Harmonic which I will present in a future post.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I still don't understand the purpose of this thread since since...

 

To calulate the indicator shown below you must have a very expensive and almost zero latency data feed and be able to measure time in 1000ths of a second. The calculation of the indicator is merely so much volume over so little time.
This software is NOT for sale or lease.
To trade this indicator at optimal levels requires automated execution.
...sounds like a tooting of ones horn.

 

However...going back to what BlowFish said and you response (just for fun), what about a small tick chart value which is NOT time dependent. Also, I would like to note that you have not specifically described how this is used for trading. Without that information no one can compare how much "special" information is being extracted versus other simple methods. So again, what is the purpose of this thread?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hlm,

 

Tick charts are NOT useful in the analysis of trade flow becasue they treat all transactions equally. In a tick chart, each transaction is treated as a single tick regardless of size and I assure you that a 1000 contract trade in the S&P has a bigger affect on price than a 1 lot.

 

As to zero or near zero latency data feed and automated execution, they are the standard for many technically astute commercial traders. Most of the work we do requires automated execution.

 

For the technically astute, the charts make it obvious that you trade the spikes.

 

The special information presented is completely described in the text as the intensity of trade by special size traders. I know of not other way to demonstrate this information and have never seen it demonstrated before, have you?

 

Most all retail trade uses indicators that have price as their only input - adaptive moving averages, exponential moving averages, RSI, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands, CCI etc. Regardless of time frame or combination of time frames these indicators have no chance of ever defining trade or leading it as they are based on price which responds to trade flow.

 

Price is motivated by trade not price itself.

 

The indicator I posted does not use price in any way and defines trade by the very secretive traders whose trade alone is enough to motivate/propel price and the non-retail traders I know find that very useful indeed.

 

Another purpose is to try and elevate the discussion beyond the triteness and futility of discussions about the utility of trade based on the consideration of multi-time frames of price based indicators.

 

Be assured that most successful commercial trade is not based on a few parameter changes on off the shelf indicators but is based on processes that have never been discussed or even mentioned on this forum.

 

The intensity of trade indicator I demonstrated here is such an indicator and I know of no forum, book or discussion that has ever mentioned it before.

 

I created this indicator and am proud of its basis and utility and don't mind sharing my work. You seem to have a big history of many very short, mostly content free posts that offer nothing new and contribute very little. Where is something new and useful that you have created that you are willing to share?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thank you for the extra information.

 

You seem to have a big history of many very short, mostly content free posts that offer nothing new and contribute very little. Where is something new and useful that you have created that you are willing to share?
:o You're kidding right? I guess people can have different defintions of "sharing". As for useful, that depends on the user and information supplied.

 

As a medium for sharing new ideas and things I am working on, I naturally prefer a more live atmosphere via the chat room or private message. My participation on the forums is mainly focused at answering specific questions one may have.

 

Enjoy your thread.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'll post my thoughts later on this, as it is potentially an interesting idea. Besides the motivations question (since you aren't selling), I think you have misread Hlm. He's contributed quite a lot to TL, both in the forums and especially in live chat. Let's try to keep this civil, and about your concept of trade intensity, rather than launch personal attacks. I can vouch that he knows his stuff and very frequently is helping other traders.

 

Speaking of live chat, we'd love if you could drop in during market hours (the TL chat link is on the navigation bar at the top). While we couldn't see exactly what you're talking about, as you use very expensive and fast data feeds, you could show examples of your premise and discuss with other traders (we usually have 15-16 in the morning US session).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pretty cool, I've also noticed something like this but haven't figured out a way to play with it yet.

One thing I would be interested to know is how much does your datafeed cost?

One interesting way to see this if you have ninjatrader is to pull up a time and sales window and set Timer refresh to false. Setting it to true means it updates ever 250 ms...when you set it to false though you see how many trades during those "blasts" that 250 ms is actually far to slow and actually misses tons of trades.

The fact that ninja defaults to not seeing this to me is an interesting statement on our retail tools. It just strikes me that our tools all default as if we are trading against a very very large pit and not against algorithms.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi UrmaBlume,

Thanks for the post. You are correct. I have not seen this concept before.

 

You mention that this type of signal can occur between 12 and 30 times on the ES. Have you had the chance to calculate the win/failure ratio when taking the correct side of this signal ? in other words have you proven an edge to this concept.

 

I agree any new way to represent data visually always provides a mindset change and hopefully a new set of rules to "see" the market more profitably.

 

By the way sounds like your group is one (of the many) well organised companies that are into fully automated strategies.

 

All the best

John

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wonder if you would get similar results by using a constant volume chart and having the histogram value defined by the amount of time needed to create a new bar. So a spike would be created when a volume comes in quicker in relation to other times.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

All this reminds me of MarketDelta when it first came out about four years ago, It had this whole new way of looking at volume at the bid ,volume at the ask ,and their cumulative values arranged a new way known as the footprint. It really appealed to the logical minds of many. But in reality. how many of you today are using this amazing tool to trade?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I wonder if you would get similar results by using a constant volume chart and having the histogram value defined by the amount of time needed to create a new bar. So a spike would be created when a volume comes in quicker in relation to other times.

 

Wouldn't volume coming in quicker result in NOT a spike, since the bar will be created quicker? So you would look at the troughs instead of the peaks in the histogram.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Wouldn't volume coming in quicker result in NOT a spike, since the bar will be created quicker? So you would look at the troughs instead of the peaks in the histogram.

I think that's what he meant. Very low time bars (seen through a small "time" indication) would indicate very fast orders coming in. Something else to look in would be the derivative of that, as you'd get the change as it develops.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Wouldn't volume coming in quicker result in NOT a spike, since the bar will be created quicker? So you would look at the troughs instead of the peaks in the histogram.
I guess you are right (not top of my game early Sunday morning)...you would just have to display the inverse. Same difference. :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
All this reminds me of MarketDelta when it first came out about four years ago, It had this whole new way of looking at volume at the bid ,volume at the ask ,and their cumulative values arranged a new way known as the footprint. It really appealed to the logical minds of many. But in reality. how many of you today are using this amazing tool to trade?

 

I think Market Delta is to blame for this though. For one they don't have a forum, something that just completely blows my mind. There is no place to bounce ideas off other people and no place for people not using the software to get really interested like what a forum would provide.

Considering the price of the software your basically on your own to come up with how to use it and I think this is why most people try it, like it, but don't use it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting stuff and quite similar to some research ideas I have been playing with.

 

One interesting visualisation I showed a while back is a 1 tick constant range chart with a volume histogram below, that shows quite clear spikes.

 

Good stuff keep it coming :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Interesting stuff and quite similar to some research ideas I have been playing with.

 

One interesting visualisation I showed a while back is a 1 tick constant range chart with a volume histogram below, that shows quite clear spikes.

 

Good stuff keep it coming :)

 

Hi BlowFish

 

I am sorry if this sound like I am nitpicking on the posts here, but this is really not my intend. What is a 1 tick constant range chart? 1 tick chart I understand, but the "constant range" part confuses me a bit.

 

Constant range charts to me means that the bars are all the same range, but I don't understand how that will work on a 1 tick chart. Did you maybe mean just a 1 tick chart with volume histogram?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi BlowFish

 

I am sorry if this sound like I am nitpicking on the posts here, but this is really not my intend. What is a 1 tick constant range chart? 1 tick chart I understand, but the "constant range" part confuses me a bit.

 

Constant range charts to me means that the bars are all the same range, but I don't understand how that will work on a 1 tick chart. Did you maybe mean just a 1 tick chart with volume histogram?

It means price has moved from 859.25 to 859.50. With a one tick chart you could have several bars created while just sitting at 859.50. With a constant range chart of one tick, volume will keep increasing until price actually moves up or down a tick hence the ability for a "spike" to be formed at the previous price/bar.

 

Added: There are two different ways to draw constant range charts. A new bar could be created at the time of the one tick move up, or it could wait until trading has continued within the range (moves beyond your specified range). I personally prefer to wait until price moves beyond my specified range which creates less bars.

Edited by Hlm
Added information

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The concept of 'trade intensity' is not new. There is no truth in saying that it is not discussed/used anywhere.

 

MarketDelta has implemented IOAMT's Trade speed ideas ( I am not affiliated with any of them) in TradeSpeed Indicator.

 

http://www.marketdelta.com/kb/article.aspx?id=10585

 

http.http://www.marketvolume.com has products/pending patents based on this idea of spikes in volume. Their SBV Indicator uses the idea of trade intensity/spikes in volume.

 

I request the thread starter to elaborate and comment if his ideas are different from the above.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Funnily quite similar to some research ideas I have been playing with, though it seems that you work has come to fruition :)

 

One interesting visualisation I showed a while back is a 1 tick wide constant range chart with a volume histogram below, that shows quite clear spikes.

 

Good stuff keep it coming :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi BlowFish

 

I am sorry if this sound like I am nitpicking on the posts here, but this is really not my intend. What is a 1 tick constant range chart? 1 tick chart I understand, but the "constant range" part confuses me a bit.

 

Constant range charts to me means that the bars are all the same range, but I don't understand how that will work on a 1 tick chart. Did you maybe mean just a 1 tick chart with volume histogram?

 

Hi a constant range chart that is 1 tick of the instrument in width. So for ES it would be a .25 point range for each bar. Hope that makes it clear.

 

Oh btw HLM's suggestion (constant volume bars with time as a histogram) gives an interesting take on things. Something else that I have played with in the past. Kind of weird though as things are back to front, for example a tiny time histogram bar shows fast activity.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I would dare to say that the concept or idea is old at least hundred years. It is simply a high volume reversal, or a climax. A lot of volume in small amount of time in a small price range. I would also say that how chopped or not chopped are the orders of big guys are is not that relevant. No indicator is needed for detection of such an event. But if somebody wishes to react fast enough to participate at this very top or bottom, then some sort of computation and automization can be useful. Yet since the thread starter states that the way he does it is secret, this thread serves only as an example that something like that is maybe possible, at least with super-hyper-datafeed and processing capacity :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I would also say that how chopped or not chopped are the orders of big guys are is not that relevant.

 

I don't know...In the abstract it is an interesting question if a 500 lot trade moves the bid/ask as 500 1 lot trades does.

I can't totally put my finger on it but it seems a bit asburd to believe that 500 trades will act the same as 1 trade, no matter what the size.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I don't know...In the abstract it is an interesting question if a 500 lot trade moves the bid/ask as 500 1 lot trades does.

I can't totally put my finger on it but it seems a bit asburd to believe that 500 trades will act the same as 1 trade, no matter what the size.

Market would most likely react diffenently, at least on micro-scale, but the most significant fact is that there were 500 lots traded. How the trades were splitted is IMHO not that important. But maybe if somebody wants to pick the very bottom or top it actually may be important, because picking the extreme is in fact a micro-scale work.

And last but not least, I am a beginner so what do I know?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Be careful who you blame.   I can tell you one thing for sure.   Effective traders don’t blame others when things start to go wrong.   You can hang onto your tendency to play the victim, or the martyr… but if you want to achieve in trading, you have to be prepared to take responsibility.   People assign reasons to outcomes, whether based on internal or external factors.   When traders face losses, it's common for them to blame bad luck, poor advice, or other external factors, rather than reflecting on their own personal attributes like arrogance, fear, or greed.   This is a challenging lesson to grasp in your trading journey, but one that holds immense value.   This is called attribution theory. Taking responsibility for your actions is the key to improving your trading skills. Pause and ask yourself - What role did I play in my financial decisions?   After all, you were the one who listened to that source, and decided to act on that trade based on the rumour. Attributing results solely to external circumstances is what is known as having an ‘external locus of control’.   It's a concept coined by psychologist Julian Rotter in 1954. A trader with an external locus of control might say, "I made a profit because the markets are currently favourable."   Instead, strive to develop an "internal locus of control" and take ownership of your actions.   Assume that all trading results are within your realm of responsibility and actively seek ways to improve your own behaviour.   This is the fastest route to enhancing your trading abilities. A trader with an internal locus of control might proudly state, "My equity curve is rising because I am a disciplined trader who faithfully follows my trading plan." Author: Louise Bedford Source: https://www.tradinggame.com.au/
    • SELF IMPROVEMENT.   The whole self-help industry began when Dale Carnegie published How to Win Friends and Influence People in 1936. Then came other classics like Think And Grow Rich by Napoleon Hill, Awaken the Giant Within by Tony Robbins toward the end of the century.   Today, teaching people how to improve themselves is a business. A pure ruthless business where some people sell utter bullshit.   There are broke Instagrammers and YouTubers with literally no solid background teaching men how to be attractive to women, how to begin a start-up, how to become successful — most of these guys speaking nothing more than hollow motivational words and cliche stuff. They waste your time. Some of these people who present themselves as hugely successful also give talks and write books.   There are so many books on financial advice, self-improvement, love, etc and some people actually try to read them. They are a waste of time, mostly.   When you start reading a dozen books on finance you realize that they all say the same stuff.   You are not going to live forever in the learning phase. Don't procrastinate by reading bull-shit or the same good knowledge in 10 books. What we ought to do is choose wisely.   Yes. A good book can change your life, given you do what it asks you to do.   All the books I have named up to now are worthy of reading. Tim Ferriss, Simon Sinek, Robert Greene — these guys are worthy of reading. These guys teach what others don't. Their books are unique and actually, come from relevant and successful people.   When Richard Branson writes a book about entrepreneurship, go read it. Every line in that book is said by one of the greatest entrepreneurs of our time.   When a Chinese millionaire( he claims to be) Youtuber who releases a video titled “Why reading books keeps you broke” and a year later another one “My recommendation of books for grand success” you should be wise to tell him to jump from Victoria Falls.   These self-improvement gurus sell you delusions.   They say they have those little tricks that only they know that if you use, everything in your life will be perfect. Those little tricks. We are just “making of a to-do-list before sleeping” away from becoming the next Bill Gates.   There are no little tricks.   There is no success-mantra.   Self-improvement is a trap for 99% of the people. You can't do that unless you are very, very strong.   If you are looking for easy ways, you will only keep wasting your time forgetting that your time on this planet is limited, as alive humans that is.   Also, I feel that people who claim to read like a book a day or promote it are idiots. You retain nothing. When you do read a good book, you read slow, sometimes a whole paragraph, again and again, dwelling on it, trying to internalize its knowledge. You try to understand. You think. It takes time.   It's better to read a good book 10 times than 1000 stupid ones.   So be choosy. Read from the guys who actually know something, not some wannabe ‘influencers’.   Edit: Think And Grow Rich was written as a result of a project assigned to Napoleon Hill by Andrew Carnegie(the 2nd richest man in recent history). He was asked to study the most successful people on the planet and document which characteristics made them great. He did extensive work in studying hundreds of the most successful people of that time. The result was that little book.   Nowadays some people just study Instagram algorithms and think of themselves as a Dale Carnegie or Anthony Robbins. By Nupur Nishant, Quora Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/    
    • there is no avoiding loses to be honest, its just how the market is. you win some and hopefully more, but u do lose some. 
    • $CSCO Cisco Systems stock, nice top of range breakout, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?CSCOSEPN Septerna stock watch for a bottom breakout, good upside price gap
    • $CSCO Cisco Systems stock, nice top of range breakout, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?CSCOSEPN Septerna stock watch for a bottom breakout, good upside price gap
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.