Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

minoo

Charting the Past Bears

Recommended Posts

Bear Market Phases

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/07/bear-market-phases.html

 

Decades of Bear

S&P 500 comparision with Nikkie

Scared the Doogle$ out of me

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/10/s-500-crash-count-compared-to-nikkei.html

 

What the heck is going on presently (6:00 AM EST 24 Oct) at S&P 855.25 Globex only session stuck their for over an hour ?

 

Enjoy Minoo

Hey TrderBG you are welcome

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Even without looking at the charts, this bear will be a big one. Personally I don't think the Dow will climb above 10,000 in the near future and I think the Nikkei will also stay below 10,000 for quite some time to come.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is the Bear feeling Bullish today

After the dip below 2002 line ?

Have we got the first cheek of the bottom ?

 

Time to trade off your Inverse-ETFs or atleast Hedge them

Oh those dividend yields makes me an weak-bear

 

Would like your opinion

 

Thanks Minoo

Edited by minoo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Worth noting this bear has entered not only the area of the previous bear market of Oct 02

 

But also the Zone created by the rising Trendlines drawn from the bear market lows of Oct 87 & Aug 82 (Cyan & Blue lines)

 

There are seldom any Weekly Gaps but this Bear have got three of them not very visible on chart (magenta dashed lines)

 

The horizontal yellow line is drawn from the Oct 02 low,

Will the Trader Vic 2B Signal (Re: Suri) lift us out of this area ?

 

Move down from the 500 MA to 900 MA is off 253.37 points

(1227.12 - 973.75)

 

If you believe in Symmetry than the next low could be projected at 720.38

(900MA - Leg_Down, 973.75 - 253.37)

 

Any charts / comments welcome

 

Enjoy Minoo

Bear-MonthlyChart-Nov08.thumb.PNG.0b02640bd7cc53fcbf7531c145b0637b.PNG

BearWeekly-Nov08.thumb.PNG.95c41db445a7f095f07433852df43ca2.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Reply from Suri on the 2B Signal (refer previous post chart above)

 

+----------------------------+

Hi Minoo,

Thanks for your email...

I looked at the Monthly chart of $INX.

 

In order for 2B to form/confirm, within the next few bars, price must trade close the bar it breaks the prior low. On a Monthly chart, the high of the current Monthly bar is 1007.5, which is about 200+ points from now.

 

I am not sure about 2B here but your TL analysis might be good...

+------------------------------+

 

Thanks Suri, much appreciated and Congratulations man!

Regards Minoo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Comparing Bottoms of 003 & 009 !

 

Extract from the below URL By Chris Vermeulen

 

+---------------------------------------------+

The charts below will really open your eyes as to how similar today's W looking bottom is to the W shaped bottom in 2003. Of course 6 years later the markets trade and move faster than ever before because of technology allowing traders to track and trade stocks from anywhere with a click of a button. So this years bottom formed much quicker.

 

Traders, individual investors, hedge funds, financial institutions and even some of the guys on CNBC are starting to buy stocks and etfs (exchange traded funds) at these price levels. I remember the market bottom in 2003 and it was much similar to the type of energy buzzing these past few weeks. Of course there is a lot more drama with Obama as president, Printing US Dollars, Scandals and bad news hitting the market day after day. But what makes all this normal is that it cannot get much worse in the news and everyone is expecting it for months to follow. Traders and investors don't even flinch when bad news comes out anymore and to top it off the SP500 has formed the same pattern it did during the last bear market bottom in 2003

 

 

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article8661.html

 

Scroll down a page to view the charts

 

Enjoy Minoo!

Edited by minoo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
the SP500 has formed the same pattern it did during the last bear market bottom in 2003

 

He neglects to mention, however, that the bear market ended when and how it did due to the creation of the RE bubble. What bubble is going to save us this time?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for the reminder, here is the update of the previously posted weekly chart

I have added the 1200MA and one more fib retracement to find the confluence

 

Confluence appears to be in the zone of 680

(two fib retracements and rising TL from 31Aug1982)

 

S&P have closed (770.05) first time below the rising trendline (Cyan in chart) drawn from the 23Oct 1987 and just above the low of Oct2002 (Yellow line) at 768.67; But this week bar has left gap above!

 

Db I will let Chris get back to you, hope you have not miss out the concluding para of his article though.

 

Enjoy Minoo

5aa70eb3c82a4_SPWeeklyBearUpdated22Feb09.thumb.PNG.1d1b75a5688ea820d978c9c74c033484.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Db I will let Chris get back to you, hope you have not miss out the concluding para of his article though.

 

Nope, didn't miss it. However, another pundit stated that we would be "rocketing" higher at the red line:

 

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=9533&stc=1&d=1235392898

 

 

As for what traders, investors, etc, are doing, they've been trying to support the market since last March, so whatever buying they're doing now is not necessarily a harbinger of Spring.

 

The market can as always do what it wants, and will, even to the extent of turning on a dime. But I would not start buying up stocks and ETFs just because the guys on CNBC are doing so or because a couple of patterns appear to match. When the bottoming process begins, there will be more than enough time to jump aboard what will likely be a very slow-moving train.

:)

Image3.gif.4f4fbc6431acc79f67dd74214c9ed8a8.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

DB,

 

I completely agree with you opinions and outlook. My article simply showed how we are currentin showing similar chart patterns as we did on most other bottoms. I'm not saying its a bottom as we cannot have a bottom until the banks get sorted out. But this is a good place for some long term cash to be put to work for those who are not active traders. We could get one more leg lower before things go higher, but some of the dividend funds are paying 10-17% dividends making them a pretty good investment for the average Joe if they want to average down and earn some dividend income on top of what ever gains happen in the next 4-5 years.

 

Most of us on here are active traders so waiting for a bottom and taking advantage of it using leveraged funds like TNA, FAS etc.. once things turn around gives us tones of time and opportunities.

 

Happy Trading

Chris

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
DB,

 

I completely agree with you opinions and outlook. My article simply showed how we are currentin showing similar chart patterns as we did on most other bottoms. I'm not saying its a bottom as we cannot have a bottom until the banks get sorted out. But this is a good place for some long term cash to be put to work for those who are not active traders. We could get one more leg lower before things go higher, but some of the dividend funds are paying 10-17% dividends making them a pretty good investment for the average Joe if they want to average down and earn some dividend income on top of what ever gains happen in the next 4-5 years.

 

Most of us on here are active traders so waiting for a bottom and taking advantage of it using leveraged funds like TNA, FAS etc.. once things turn around gives us tones of time and opportunities.

 

Happy Trading

Chris

 

On the other hand, the dividends may not and will not likely hold if prices fall further. Therefore, I can't concur that this is a "good place to buy".

 

But then, it's not my money.:)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Everything was negative today again, Played the Morning Gap close and than short on to Globex low, pretty much the same drill which I did last week. Though my expectation have grown towards the 'Bear Market Rally'. Waited right till the end and than went long on S&P 741.75 after big-brother NYSE close and the Algos started to kick in Buy Progs. This is the second time I have taken this contradictory action from my running Bear Market Trading Plan

 

After the market close I went quickly browsing for some info on 'Bear Market Rally' to may be justify my actions, results to be or maybe reason for a good night sleep, whatever .. . blah blah .... blah .. .

 

I came across this excellent site http://dshort.com/

Absolute worth checking out, short briefs and very intuitive charts on below topics:

-Four Bad Bears (also check the CPI adjusted chart below)

-Bottoming out process (brilliant interactive chart for base comparision)

-Regression to trend (what can I say .. .)

 

Got to review these charts again with fresh mind and add to journal some stats

 

I am not sure of my closing action or of my swing targets yet, though scale in orders are in place; Got to take responsibility and play it out in the same consistent style.

May have jump the gun.

 

Goodnight All

Enjoy Minoo

 

http://greatday.com/v.html?2217507MRpn8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Another good & dare I say timely article by Andre of MarketTurningPoints.com

 

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article9036.html

 

I like his take on Projections and Breadth

(MACD on NYSE A/D line ?, something to check out here .. .. .)

 

Enjoy Minoo

 

http://greatday.com/v.html?2218g07MRpn8

 

Note: A better version of the same was found on below website

http://www.safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=12667&pv=1

Edited by minoo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Apart from the various newsletters and pundits and gurus, what does your own analysis tell you? Looking at the chart, and only the chart, without any indicators or calculations of any sort,

 

1. what do you see as the next level of support, if we fail to rally here, and why?

 

2. what is the likelihood that we will rally and why?

 

3. if we do rally, how far do you think we might get and why?

 

I don't mean for this to sound like a quiz, but I'm much more interested in what you think than in the opinions of the usual professional technician.

 

One other point. Chopping up charts in order to support a conclusion at which one has already arrived is easy to do and common and dangerous. Each bottom is unique, and one must evaluate what is happening in his own market in his own time in order to determine when and where and how the bottoming process is unfolding. There then remains the equally and possibly more difficult task of deciding what to do about it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi Db

 

On the intraday side I have now become an cautious and reluctant Bear and will go grazing more willingly with the bulls

 

I think the bear has made enough headway on the south path for the time being

In market nothing remain in unidirection so far we had a good run in this direction

 

So its simply time / cycle for me this week to be more contradictory and look out for change. 740 is a good area for me to look for an rebounce (anticipating Volatility as well)

Simply put, I will scalp the short side and swing the long side

 

Below is another good article by Ray he uses MP, Delta and Normalised Vol to give an perspective on the present Bear's stance

http://www.greenfaucet.com/print/6188#

 

Enjoy Minoo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for asking Db

 

Just anticipating an corrective cycle / phase to this Bear run

I would say time and cycle from an area

but be aware of the News & Volatility

 

Best thing for me is not to form any BIAS but be clear about my preferences

 

As I said earlier I will Scalp with the Bear South of 740 and Swing with the Bulls North of 740, and implement an no trade zone around it.

 

Hope this helps

 

Good trading to you all

Minoo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date : 10th December 2019. FX Update – NZD & GBP remain Bid – 10th December 2019.NZD & Sterling The New Zealand Dollar posted a fresh four-month high versus the Australian Dollar, while NZDUSD and NZDJPY saw two-day highs. A shift in RBNZ policy expectations and an associated rise in NZ yields have been underpinning the kiwi. The 10-year US T-note yield advantage relative to the NZ 10-year yield has narrowed by some 15 bps since late November. It is expected that this trend will taper out at some point, as RBNZ monetary policy is historically sensitive to movements in the currency. The longest rallying kiwi pair is the NZDCAD which is now in its 29th day and 280 pips (4.6 x ATR) north of the key 20-day simple moving average, 19 days over the 50-day moving average and 6 days over the important long term 200-day moving average and psychological 0.8600. Next Resistance is R3 and the upper Bollinger band at 0.8750. MACD and RSI both remain positive.Elsewhere in the forex realm, most dollar pairings and associated cross rates have remained in narrow ranges, holding within respective Monday ranges in thinned-out year-end conditions. EURUSD has remained particularly directionally challenged, seeing less than a 10-pip range during the Asia-Pacific session until the entry of the London interbank market. USDJPY managed a 12-pip range. The stellar US jobs report of last Friday has had little lasting impact on the Dollar. Markets seem non-committal, partly due to seasonal considerations and partly amid a certain anxiety ahead of the weekend’s deadline for the US to hike tariffs on a further $160 bln worth of Chinese goods. A delay in this deadline is possible, if a phase-1 deal fails to come to fruition, while an implementation of the new tariffs would mark an escalation in the trade war and cause a significant risk-off response in illiquid year-end global markets.Sterling has settled after rallying yesterday, unaffected by the slight dip in GDP and the worse than expected trade balance, Cable holds the 1.3150 pivot point. Markets have factored in a Conservative victory with an outright majority at Thursday’s UK general election, based on public opinion polling, though political pundits have been stressing that undecided votes are making this election tricky to call. Polls have suggested most undecided voters are people who voted for Labour in 2017, suggesting there is a possibility for an unexpectedly strong showing for Labour, however, the surge in tactical voting to prevent a Johnson majority is difficult to calculate, and there have been no clear signs of this. The key YouGov MRP opinion poll will be updated later today; last time (November 27) it predicted a Conservative majority of 67 seats.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date : 9th December 2019. Events to Look Out For Next Week 9th December 2019. *Following the OPEC meeting this week and the  surprisingly strong US payroll data, three interest rate decisions are scheduled next week. Other than Central Banks, the event of the week is the UK Parliamentary Election on Thursday. Monday – 09 December 2019 * RBA’s Governor Lowe speech (AUD, GMT 22:05) – Due to speak at the AusPayNet Summit, in Sydney. Tuesday – 10 December 2019 * Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – September’s Chinese CPI is seen unchanged at 0.7% while the PPI figure is expected to decline further to -1.2%. The overall reading for CPI is estimated to post a gain up to 2.9% y/y. * ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Economic Sentiment for October is projected at -27 from the -22.5 seen last month, as the current conditions indicator for Germany turned negative. The overall Eurozone reading though is expected to decline slightly further to -33.0 from -22.4. A lower than expected outcome, ties in with the stagnation in market sentiment at the start of the month. Wednesday – 11 December 2019 * Inflation Rate (USD, GMT 13:30) – A 0.2% November headline CPI rise is expected with a 0.2% core price increase, following respective October readings of 0.4% and 0.2%. As-expected gains would result in a headline y/y increase of 2.0%, up from 1.8% last month. Core prices should set a 2.3% pace for a second consecutive month. We expect an up-tilt in y/y gains into Q1 of 2020 due to harder comparisons and some lift from tariff increases that should leave gains in the 2.4% area, which may help ease concerns about persistent inflation undershoots of the Fed’s 2% objective.  * Interest Rate decision and conference (USD, GMT 19:00) – The FOMC is widely seen on hold even after the robust payroll data, with no shift in rate policy for the foreseeable future. Indeed, the data validated the pause and left policymakers in a state of Fed Nirvana, at least for now. Fed Chair Powell will reiterate the economy and policy are in a “good place.” There is little risk of any downside “material changes” in the outlook anytime soon given the solid path for jobs growth. And, GDP will likely continue to modestly outpace the official Fed estimates, just as a benign inflation trajectory caps risk of rate hikes from the Fed as well. Hence, the focus will be on the Fed’s quarterly forecast update (SEP) and Chair Powell’s press conference.  Thursday- 12 Decemmber 2019 * Parliamentary Election – Brexit will be a focal point with the December 12 election. While the Conservative party with a working majority is the clear odds-on favourite outcome of the election, the outcome of the general election is by no means a sure-fire certainty, however, especially in light of the predictive failures of pollsters and betting markets at elections in the UK and elsewhere in recent years. * SNB Interest Rate Decision and Conference (EUR, GMT 08:30) – The central bank is widely expected to keep policy settings unchanged as ongoing uncertainty on the global growth outlook, along with weakness in the Eurozone economy, support the view that the central bank’s negative interest rate and the threat of ad hoc currency interventions remain necessary to keep the franc under control, and prevent inflation from falling. The central bank has kept the door to additional measures open as it keeps a close eye on geopolitical trade tensions and Brexit developments. * ECB Interest Rate Decision and Conference (EUR, GMT 12:45 &13;30) – Lagarde’s first press conference. The “risk” is that it will be equally uneventful as her testimony before the European Parliament. It is very likely on Thursday, to be confirmed that: The ECB remains ready to act again and tweak all its measures if necessary, but has already done a lot and now needs to keep an eye on the side effects of the very expansionary monetary policy, while politicians need to do their bit to support the economy.The ECB won’t be reducing the degree of stimulus any time soon and we effectively see the central bank on hold through next year, unless there is a major change in circumstance. Friday – 13 December 2019 * Retail Sales and Industrial Production (USD, GMT 13:30) – A gain is expected up to 0.3% November for both the retail sales headline and the ex-auto figures, following a 0.3% October headline with a 0.2% ex-auto figure. There’s considerable uncertainty, however, given seasonal distortions around the holidays, especially including Black Friday and Cyber Monday swings, and with six fewer shopping days between Thanksgiving and Christmas. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Renko Full Throttle PRO IndicatorUSDCHF 1H Chart: Recorded Success rate is 95% in the last year with  
    • True. I can't say how much money I lost over the years on crappy signal providers. Take as much time as necessary googling on any one before spending your money there.
    • Date : 6th December 2019. Happy Non-Farm Friday – 6th December 2019.Happy Non-Farm Friday – The Dollar majors have remained comfortably within their respective ranges from yesterday, ahead of trade talks, NFP and the OPEC+ decision.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.