Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

bertg

May 19, 2008; 1:45pm ET Crash

Recommended Posts

Hi, folks,

 

Market analysis seems to be the appropriate forum for this.

 

My question to all of you: what happened today at 1:45pm ET that caused the market to crash? At 1pm ET there were two reports on the calendar: 3- and 6-month bill reports, but the crash started around 1:40-1:45. I didn't see any volume spikes like I see sometimes before a big move.

 

How can all markets crash like that at the same time?

 

Thank you,

Bert

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

WASHINGTON, May 19 (Reuters) - A few Federal Reserve policy-makers have begun talking openly about the need to raise interest rates, but it appears more likely the U.S. central bank will stay on hold until early 2009. (1:34 EDT) more...

 

In other words, the Fed may be done lowering rates. You can see what the reaction was, though the recovery off the lows was fairly strong.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The market dropped b/c the charts were screaming a drop was coming. ;)
Yep, a little birdie told me to look for 1424's on the way down (POC of the up swing) with possible support around 1428-29s (VAH of the up swing). News just acts as the catalyst.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi, folks,

 

Market analysis seems to be the appropriate forum for this.

 

My question to all of you: what happened today at 1:45pm ET that caused the market to crash? At 1pm ET there were two reports on the calendar: 3- and 6-month bill reports, but the crash started around 1:40-1:45. I didn't see any volume spikes like I see sometimes before a big move.

 

How can all markets crash like that at the same time?

 

Thank you,

Bert

 

Crash:confused:??? A 19.25 range in the ES is a crash? Dont think so, nothing out of the ordinary today.

 

This is a crash:

14cba4w.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Crash:confused:??? A 19.25 range in the ES is a crash? Dont think so, nothing out of the ordinary today.
Exactly, we have at least a few more months before that happens. ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Yep, a little birdie told me to look for 1424's on the way down (POC of the up swing) with possible support around 1428-29s (VAH of the up swing). News just acts as the catalyst.

 

Hlm,

what software do you use that you can split vpoc and vvah /vval at swing points? I trade somewhat similar but a little more crudely I suppose. Because es opened above Fridays vah(1423.25) and held it then became todays val. That would make Friday's vpoc(1420.75) an unfair low.1424.25 becomes as you said the vpoc and 1429.25 becomes the vah. Also 1436.75 is now an unfair high.Thats how tomorrow setups for me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest forsearch

Just a normal retracement from the highs. Nothing special here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They've been speculating the fed is done raising interest rates for weeks now. I suspect that the tinder was dry, there was a lot of it, and then a spark came... or you could just call it a snowball.

A big hint was an attempt higher that turned into a bearish engulfing pattern on the 10 minute chart.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thank you to those with useful answers.

 

I don't trade much because I am in the learning stages. I am taking the advice of a member here and just spend time every night watching market replay data without any indicators but volume, trying to see what price does (and also looking for patterns like butterflies and wolfe waves, which is just plain fun for me). No sim trades, just watching.

 

I just happened to see the "crash" on my lunch break at work and thought I'd ask the experienced traders here what they think happened.

 

Regards,

Bert

Edited by mister ed

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest forsearch
Thank you to those with useful answers.

 

I don't trade much because I am in the learning stages. I am taking the advice of a member here and just spend time every night watching market replay data without any indicators but volume, trying to see what price does (and also looking for patterns like butterflies and wolfe waves, which is just plain fun for me). No sim trades, just watching.

 

I just happened to see the "crash" on my lunch break at work and thought I'd ask the experienced traders here what they think happened.

Regards,

Bert

 

Probably because it wasn't a "crash" to begin with. But keep on reading and watching those charts. You'll get it eventually.

Edited by mister ed

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
what software do you use that you can split vpoc and vvah /vval at swing points?
To my knowledge there is no software out there that automatically does this...or even allows you to do this manually in an efficient way. I have spent the last several months designing and programming software to fit my specific needs.

 

I just happened to see the "crash" on my lunch break at work and thought I'd ask the experienced traders here what they think happened.
I'll try to add a helpful comment. To see where others are coming from, I suggest opening up a large tick bar chart (eg 2500 ticks) of the ES over the last 6 days (all hours). This will allow you to see the up and down waves more clearly. The last move down had more pressure because the next higher time frame has possibly finished it's up swing. The move was very technical in nature. Potential downside area would be 1405-1406. However, price is currently sitting within a decision/consolidation area. Edited by mister ed

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I apologize to the OP if my short but succinct previous answer did not provide an adequate reply that he was looking for.

 

Suffice to say this - as a candlestick trader, there were PLENTY of reversal signals staring you in the face (if you know what to look for). So while you are looking for waves and whatever else, a simple candlestick analysis that would take about 5 seconds accomplished the same thing for me.

 

====================

 

With that being said (I know, it was a smart ass reply) trading is one of the most time consuming and labor intensive things you can possibly do in your spare time. While there were candlestick reversal signals that met my criteria for a trade, it was not and is not about playing find a shape (which many new to candles do).

 

Hopefully this gives a little more info for you to work on.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi, folks,

 

Market analysis seems to be the appropriate forum for this.

 

My question to all of you: what happened today at 1:45pm ET that caused the market to crash? At 1pm ET there were two reports on the calendar: 3- and 6-month bill reports, but the crash started around 1:40-1:45. I didn't see any volume spikes like I see sometimes before a big move.

 

How can all markets crash like that at the same time?

 

Thank you,

Bert

 

Imo charts tell it all. Please see below a composite profile of the ES starting from 2008 till present.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=6547&stc=1&d=1211254713

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=6548&stc=1&d=1211254713

 

Yesterdays high at 1441 was pretty much the top of the distribution. It will fail on the first attempt majority of the time it reaches levels like that. Check the daily charts below also.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=6549&stc=1&d=1211255136

 

So I wouldnt call it a crash. More like a significant point of resistance.

5aa70e6559bfb_ESComposite.thumb.png.b901708ab48b6b13e42264bb9cf24edf.png

5aa70e65623e7_ESComposite2.thumb.png.13eaa026bc895bad7ea0e5f835b98811.png

5aa70e656c6e2_ESResistance.thumb.png.61db3c9262e8ec6e5380840784843f3b.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
With that being said trading is one of the most time consuming and labor intensive things you can possibly do in your spare time.

 

Spare time? How I envy you. :\

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

OK, here is some candlestick analysis. In the attached5-min chart, it shows that if you missed the first move down yesterday, there was a wide range red candle where the top of the candle created massive resistance as indicated by the yellow horizontal line. Subsequently the market had big trouble going above it, then you could have shorted into the bear flag that is being formed.

05-19-2008-h.png.ebee57f5f7d7917d4b5e6cb622ed0f72.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I apologize to the OP if my short but succinct previous answer did not provide an adequate reply that he was looking for.

 

Suffice to say this - as a candlestick trader, there were PLENTY of reversal signals staring you in the face (if you know what to look for). So while you are looking for waves and whatever else, a simple candlestick analysis that would take about 5 seconds accomplished the same thing for me.

 

 

Could you post a chart of some of these signals?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Imo charts tell it all. Please see below a composite profile of the ES starting from 2008 till present.

So I wouldnt call it a crash. More like a significant point of resistance.

 

It also hit the value area of the upper range.

5aa70e65dc45a_SP500Value.thumb.png.7c8d1c2250ef280b648e40b1ebe3802b.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thank you to those with useful answers.

 

I don't trade much because I am in the learning stages. I am taking the advice of a member here and just spend time every night watching market replay data without any indicators but volume, trying to see what price does (and also looking for patterns like butterflies and wolfe waves, which is just plain fun for me). No sim trades, just watching.

 

I just happened to see the "crash" on my lunch break at work and thought I'd ask the experienced traders here what they think happened.

 

Regards,

Bert

 

Bert, your question appears to have been interpreted two different ways: (1) why did price fall and (2) why did price fall at that particular time. These charts are informative and useful and helpful, but in terms of trading the move, perhaps the best you could have hoped for was to find a profitable way of entering the move, if you happened to be there at the time.

 

The averages were all at resistance of one form or another, at different levels. They were all due to fall at some time or other for some distance or other. However, absent a catalyst of some sort (in this case, most likely the comments from Fed officials), any or all of them could have simply drifted all afternoon, then plunged on the PPI data this morning. When all the major averages fall at the same time and in more or less the same way, you can assume that there is something going on outside the usual support/resistance dynamic. Noting it is important if you're studying price movement. Trading it is something else.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As I have posted yesterday in the Live Trade section: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/130/live-trades-3845-17.html

 

and brought attention to the fact we were very close to the 200-day moving average of the S&P 500, a yardstick widely watched by the institutions. As you can see from the attached chart, we have problem closing significantly above it. If you do your homework every night, you would expect a tug of war around the 200ma and not be surprise by the price action yesterday.

05-19-2008-j.png.3448f38adc5f1624d76104f6bc7656c3.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Question: To those that had/have cancer, what were the signs that made you think “something is not right here” to make you go see a doctor? Answer: So, 5/25/2018, I woke up, got ready for work, and as I walked to my car, I started gagging. Like something was stuck in my throat and I needed to clear it. And then it went away.   But 10 minutes after that, I was T-boned at 40mph on the driver side door. But what made me see a doctor was while my muscles felt better and bruises were going away, the gagging still continued, I started having fevers, my neck felt swollen, I was having such a hard time breathing, and I'd have random sharp pains in my chest, but not from where the seat belt saved me.   2 weeks after the accident, I finally see an urgent care doctor, who looks me over, tells me I'm fine, but luckily requests a neck X-ray. And I ask for a chest X-ray, which he rolls his eyes but let me have (most of my pain was in the neck, so I understand).   The very next day, he calls and says “So, that chest X-ray shows there's a 4 inch mass on your heart and lungs, and your lungs have been filling up with fluid, as well as in your pericardial (heart) wall. We need you to come in tomorrow.”   Turns out the big mass, due to the accident, caused my heart and lungs to tear and fill with fluid, the swollen neck and gagging was caused by 2 metastasized tumors, and the fevers and weight loss were symptoms. Stage 4b Hodgkin's Lymphoma.   But thankfully, we went very aggressive with chemo (and had a lot of bad side effects that don't normally happen to patients), and now I'm about 16 months cancer-free. Yay lucky X-rays! Rachel Jurina, Quora Source: https://www.quora.com/To-those-that-had-have-cancer-what-were-the-signs-that-made-you-think-something-is-not-right-here-to-make-you-go-see-a-doctor   Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/  
    • As a man, the reality of life is the harshest part. I don’t mind looking older or becoming weaker over time; it’s nature.   Have you ever heard that the only people who will be loved unconditionally are women and children? Men will only be loved as long as they can provide until they are no longer needed. It doesn’t matter if you already did your best to get your kids to the best school or get the best things for them, if you stop before they’re done with it, there will be no thank you. The only thing they will remember is that they have to quit school at 15, ignoring all the previous 15 years of life you provided for them. The only people who will accept you, no matter what, are your parents. But in this situation, you might be that ungrateful child.   EDIT: Wow, I didn’t think this would get so much attention.   For those who disagree, I can only say that everyone has their problem. If you don’t get the chance to face such a thing, be grateful. Remember, sometimes what you throw in the garbage is something that someone wishes ever to have.” – ElZee, Quora   Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/    
    • The good thing i had noticed so far is that the traderpot value is also on the rise..
    • yup its a gradual rollout the right way in my opinion, its really good and its exciting for the sto in 2027
    • there is no avoiding loses to be honest, its just how the market is. you win some and hopefully more, but u do lose some. 
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.