Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

marketguy

JPJTrading. Any thoughts?

Recommended Posts

Hi. This is first post at TL. I have only read and enjoyed this site in the past. I am getting more and more interested in MP and am looking for a mentor/teacher.

 

Has anyone here been studying with JP? Does anyone trade with him regularly?

 

Any thoughts and opinions would be welcomed. Specifically, how successful is he as a trader? (their site says he is "amazing") How successful is he in teaching his methods to other traders? What kind of guy is he? How's the vibe of the room?

 

It's a rather expensive outlay so I'd love some feedback.

 

Thanks,

 

Bryan

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am in my 2nd month in JP's room. Without a doubt the man is an exceptional trader. I'm not sure I would use the word amazing, but he is very good. Perhaps the most impressive thing about JP is his discipline, he trades the same way each time, which is something I clearly struggle with.

 

You will learn several market profile setups, and several that have nothing to do with market profile. Since there are over 200 members in the room on any given day, you will often see many traders posting many different trades, and oddly enough, there are many times when some members are short while others are long, even when both sides trade legit market profile setups.

 

In a nutshell, JP is giving me a different way of looking at the markets. Will I trade every setup? No. When in a trade will I manage it the same way as JP? No. Would I be better off if I was able to answer yes to both of those questions? Yes.

 

But the fact remains that I can only take the setups that fit my personality and manage them according to my own style. I suspect most other room members would agree.

 

 

Hi. This is first post at TL. I have only read and enjoyed this site in the past. I am getting more and more interested in MP and am looking for a mentor/teacher.

 

Has anyone here been studying with JP? Does anyone trade with him regularly?

 

Any thoughts and opinions would be welcomed. Specifically, how successful is he as a trader? (their site says he is "amazing") How successful is he in teaching his methods to other traders? What kind of guy is he? How's the vibe of the room?

 

It's a rather expensive outlay so I'd love some feedback.

 

Thanks,

 

Bryan

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks BH,

I appreciate your response. Gaining the good habits of an exceptional and disciplined trader takes time and confidence. I am so not there yet myself. Learning from someone with those qualities is as important as their successful methodology.

 

Could you please answer a few more questions.

1. What percentage of the trades are winners for him?

2. What kind of stops are utilized?

3. What kind of guy is he? Is he he someone you enjoy spending your day with?

4. Is he a good teacher?

5. Is the room worth the money and do you see yourself in it for the long haul?

6. How well are you picking up his methods (this early on) Are you making consistent money with his methods?

 

Thanks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi. This is first post at TL. I have only read and enjoyed this site in the past. I am getting more and more interested in MP and am looking for a mentor/teacher.

 

Has anyone here been studying with JP? Does anyone trade with him regularly?

 

Any thoughts and opinions would be welcomed. Specifically, how successful is he as a trader? (their site says he is "amazing") How successful is he in teaching his methods to other traders? What kind of guy is he? How's the vibe of the room?

 

It's a rather expensive outlay so I'd love some feedback.

 

Thanks,

 

Bryan

 

I know someone who has experience with his room. Not recommended.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

[

Could you please answer a few more questions.

1. What percentage of the trades are winners for him?

2. What kind of stops are utilized?

3. What kind of guy is he? Is he he someone you enjoy spending your day with?

4. Is he a good teacher?

5. Is the room worth the money and do you see yourself in it for the long haul?

6. How well are you picking up his methods (this early on) Are you making consistent money with his methods?

 

 

1. I have not tracked his winning %, and I know he doesn't either because during his free trial several people asked that question. If I had to guess, I would say the trades he takes are at least 60% winners, maybe a little better than that.

 

2. Typically 1-2 points

 

3. Decent guy, former floor trader and voice sounds like it.

 

4. I think so, but there are several veterans of his style in the room that assist in answering questions also.

 

5. Again, I think so or I wouldn't have signed up for 2nd month. In it for long haul? After 3 paid months the room is free for life so unless something drastic happens in the next month I plan on paying my 3rd installment and becoming a lifetime member.

 

6. I am working hard to take each setup without bias or hesitation and to then manage them with discipline (which again I struggle with), but much easier said than done. For example, last week, I took a long setup that relatively quickly went $10 in my favor. JP of course was scaling out the entire way up and had most of his profits locked in. I had a technical level I *thought* the market would get to but it missed by $1 and I closed out the trade for a modest $2 profit after riding it back down to under break-even. JP would never have let that happen, he probably had a few pieces left that he scratched on the way back down to his entry price, but the majority of his profits were locked in.

 

 

The importance of discipline without bias cannot be overstated. I know that is the true holy grail of trading, but I have never completely gotten there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thanks so much for your honest and sincere reply and also taking the time to help a fellow trade.

 

Much good fortune.

 

Bryan

 

Jpjtrading room will give you some good ideas that you can use to mold into your own techniques, so will many of the posts on this site that are available for free.

Jp has a Kamikaze style of entering trades that practically none of his students can duplicate. He only uses mental stops.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Typically traders that have a Kamikaze style of entering trades and don't use stops have deep pockets.

 

Jpjtrading room will give you some good ideas that you can use to mold into your own techniques, so will many of the posts on this site that are available for free.

Jp has a Kamikaze style of entering trades that practically none of his students can duplicate. He only uses mental stops.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I appreciate the replies. I think I will learn all I can learn here (for free) and finally finish Mind Over Markets before considering reaching out in that way.

 

For clarification, while JP does charge $400 a month, after 3 months you get the room for free, for the life of the room.

 

Bryan

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

my 2 cents worth and being whom I am I think that I am qualified to comment on JPJ even though I do not know the Gentleman personally but I have a respect for what he is doing based entirely from feedback that I have received from some of his students. Frankly the cost of attending JPJ is minimal especially as it is a life time support. The issue is the noise/chatter that the attendees create. If you can discern the wood for the trees and block this noise out then the teaching materials that JPJ has and promotes are worth every bit the cost. If you can learn even a simplistic setup from him then the cost is minimal. His style is not to everyone's liking but then why would you expect that. It is what it is and the issue is perhaps that his focus is narrow in that he only talks the ES. Curious when you consider that he was a bond local orignally. As for style surely the whole point about any learning is that you take what you can from the teacher and take other information from elsewhere to then marry it up and create something that is personal. The point being is not to create a mini-me but to create something that is your own. As Steidlmayer wrote and forgive me if I paraphrase and/or truncate a little: I quote from the original CBOT handbook from 1984.(PS I am on the hunt for any other MP documentation that anyone might have for the purpose of archiving it - I already have the largest collection of MP material both ancient and modern in one place but would be obliged if anyone can help with additional material) - I quote from the manual that was the forerunner to the CBOT Handbook which you can currently download from the CBOT website

"Market understanding time you plus your trading method equals results"

"In order to recognize opportunity, to respond appropriately and to make timely adjustments as you go, you need to know what the market is doing and under what conditions. The difference between knowing and guessing is vital." "When this market understanding is combined with a personal trading method, traders anywhere in the world have an opportunity to achieve superior results." . lastly if you think that $1200 is expensive then perhaps you should check out how much a college education costs and do the maths. Consider that if you subscribe how many trades you would have to do to recoup the cost. Trading is a business and one should look at tiome and money in vs reward out. Now I have little interest in promoting anyone but me but frankly I think that JPJ offers outstanding value

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
. Now I have little interest in promoting anyone but me but frankly I think that JPJ offers outstanding value

 

Just curious, are you a vendor yourself ? In a previous post, you said you wrote a chapter for John Carter's book. If you don't charge money for knowledge, I would welcome you , as many here would agree, to share more of your stuff on here. My 2 cents.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

AllyB,

Thanks so much for taking the time to address this subject. All points well taken. Bye the way, I am just about ready to sit down and watch your 2 CBOT videos.

 

Take care,

 

Bryan

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

OAC. Vendor is not a catorgary that I would place myself in persee. I trade for a living first and foremost but I also run a subscription member financial portal website which specializes in MP. From my website I teach/educate on Market Profile and unlike others I will give you not just the entries but the exits as well including how to originate both short, medium and long term strategies. I have been doing MP since 1984 when I first met Pete and am considered by some to be an expert on the subject. I offer my members on-going support and although I place a huge amount into the public domain I also consider that it is only right and proper that as an expert I should occassionally be remunerated for my expertise and time. The difference between someone like JPJ and myself is that he offers a narrow based teaching on a single product whereas I cover the whole spectrum. Free is great and I urge all to take as much advantage of free when it is available but I have found that free means a slow track. One might eventually arrive in the instant gratification world that we live in that properly researched paid education is not just a pre-requiste but also a fast track way to learn. After all I elaborate on the my earlier post if you could have the opportunity for total freedom presented to you together with untold riches would you not grab it with both hands therefore someone like JPJ is a cost effective way of gaining that expertise. as for John Carter and Chapter 17 it is a fact that I wrote the chapter just as I did the CBOT MP101 and MP102 videos which now are only available from my website to all comers. Some things in life are free but other things must be paid for. I don't feel I need to defend myself in anyway for my own track record goes before me with absolutely full disclosure and archives and I still have friends from the 1980s who continue to state that they are amazed at the accuracy that I can deliver on a consistent basis. Unfortunately I have not arrived in life (post 2 ex wives and 2 expensive Daughters ) at a stage whereby I can be philanthropic but to date all of either my students/members have found that I give good value for money and that is the measure by which all things are evaluated.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A couple days ago, I came across the webpage of a really successful vendor, here is what it said:

 

 

Dear Interested Trader,

Thanks for your interest in XXX Trading. In 2005, I became a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA), "retired" the website and currently manage money professionally. Therefore, I no longer operate an advisory service. Please review my Books to learn more about XXX Trading. If you have further questions please feel free to contact me at my email address, XXXTraders@XXXTrader.com.

 

Best Regards,

 

XXX :cheers:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am in my second month of training at JPJTrading. In the begining I was just as skeptical about paying for chat room. I made a decision from the beginning that my risk will be 1 month fee, and if by the end of that month I can not make enough profit for next month tuition, I will not continue with JP.

At the end of October I prepaid next 2 months from the money I earned during training. Methods that JP teaches may not be for everyone, because it really doesn't matter what he teaches if YOU cannot adopt and trade his setups.

I also want to correct few mis-information from earlier posts... "JP does not use hard stops".... true, but he DOES have stop levels for his trades and watches price action around them. I have not seen him "slip" more then 1-2 ticks from previously announced stop levels.

"kamikaze trades" - not sure what it really means, but trade setups are known well in advance, and are not emotional entries. Most of the entries do not feel easy to do, but then again nobody said that trading was easy. The best trades fly in the face of "common sense".

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
lastly if you think that $1200 is expensive then perhaps you should check out how much a college education costs and do the maths. Consider that if you subscribe how many trades you would have to do to recoup the cost. Trading is a business and one should look at tiome and money in vs reward out.

 

Anyone looking for an alternative to JPJ should also check out Frank Butera at http://www.BalanceTrader.com. A lifetime membership is only $200. We all agreed nobody is going to hand it to you in a silver platter(although JPJ did say he may hand you a fish :)) and you have to mold it to make it work for you anyway.

I have been there, he is decent.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just thought I'd add my 2 cents to this thread. I paid the $400 to enroll in JP's class last month and found it so rewarding that I didn't hesitate to pay the additional $800 for lifetime membership access to his chat room and member group materials. Prior to enrolling I had read the CBOT MP manual and I had read and re-read Dalton's Mind Over Markets at least three times. So I felt I was going into JPs class with a farily well grounded understanding of market auction theory and MP concepts. However, it became apparent from the get go that JP's objective is to take his students beyond theory. The bottom line is that he is driven by the desire to see his students make money. He is overwhelmingly passionate (and patient) when it comes to teaching a variety of very well thought out, logical (and very profitable) MP derived setups that he's identified for daytrading purposes. And while he focuses on the ES his setups and techniques are relevant to any market in which auction theory drives price action. I personally prefer to trade the NQ and I apply the setups accordingly.

 

Prior to joining up I had been trading the futures for 4 years using several common and one or two proprietary indicators to identify and time entries for high probability trade setups. My trading buddies couldn't quite understand why I wanted ot pursue JP's classroom since I was making money every day. I explained to them I wanted to get a better handle on "why" price action unfolds the way it does each day and that I figured that JP's tutelage would help me achieve that goal. Well, it has and it will continue to. I don't know if any and every trader will take to JP's approach. In fact, I doubt it. But I am certain that for those for whom the lighbulb goes off will recoup their membership fees after just afew trades. In other words, JP's program pays for itself and in my book that's the definition of "invaluable".

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just thought I'd add my 2 cents to this thread. I paid the $400 to enroll in JP's class last month and found it so rewarding that I didn't hesitate to pay the additional $800 for lifetime membership access to his chat room and member group materials. Prior to enrolling I had read the CBOT MP manual and I had read and re-read Dalton's Mind Over Markets at least three times. So I felt I was going into JPs class with a farily well grounded understanding of market auction theory and MP concepts. However, it became apparent from the get go that JP's objective is to take his students beyond theory. The bottom line is that he is driven by the desire to see his students make money. He is overwhelmingly passionate (and patient) when it comes to teaching a variety of very well thought out, logical (and very profitable) MP derived setups that he's identified for daytrading purposes. And while he focuses on the ES his setups and techniques are relevant to any market in which auction theory drives price action. I personally prefer to trade the NQ and I apply the setups accordingly.

 

Prior to joining up I had been trading the futures for 4 years using several common and one or two proprietary indicators to identify and time entries for high probability trade setups. My trading buddies couldn't quite understand why I wanted to pursue JP's classroom since I was making money every day. I explained to them I wanted to get a better handle on "why" price action unfolds the way it does each day and that I figured that JP's tutelage would help me achieve that goal. Well, it has and it will continue to. I don't know if any and every trader will take to JP's approach. In fact, I doubt it. But I am certain that those for whom the lighbulb goes off will recoup their membership fees after just afew trades. In other words, JP's program pays for itself and in my book that's the definition of "invaluable".

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Glenbee,

Thanks for your great addition to the thread. I have been studying MP for several months. I am slowly making my way thru Mind Over Markets and understanding it pretty well. I listened to Billed Dalton's audio class. I have been watching Dan Duryea's IOAMT daily updates and other videos for the past month. I have been watching AllyB's videos. All in all, slowly growing more and more comfortable with MP concepts and slowly weaving it into my trading.

 

Question: how prepared do you think one needs to be before coming into JP's room? Do you advise more preparation before signing up?

 

Thanks,

 

B

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Question: how prepared do you think one needs to be before coming into JP's room? Do you advise more preparation before signing up?

 

Thanks,

 

B

 

JP want you to forget everything that you have ever learned about the market : MACD, Stochastic, CCI, Fibonacci, moving average, candlestick...etc. And learn the market his way and you will become an instant success. He is a genius.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Marketguy: I think it goes without saying that the more familiar one is with market auction theory and applications the faster he/she will assimilate JP's approach. So, given what you've already studied I suspect you'd find JP's method incredibly easy to understand. I wouldn't even be surprised if you find a few things a bit elementary. I mean, when you think about it, market auction theory isn't all that profound. In fact, the beauty of it all is that is so logical that you can't help but ask yourself "why didn't I think of that and why doesn't everyone use it?"

 

OAC: I don't know if your last post was serious or sarcastic but I do know that it is inaccruate. JP couldn't care less what supplementary chart setups one uses. In fact, it seems to me that his position is "use whatever else works for you". Again, he couldn't care less. His methods don't require anything other than an understanding of how to "read" the story being told in a MP to be successful and that's what his teaching is all about. So I am sure there are many in his room who use a market profile chart alone. However, this does NOT mean to say one can't be creative and enhance JP's approach with his/her own methods if they're so inclined. I do. I'm sure others do. I have yet to come across anyone in his room who would be so arbitrary and arrogant to suggest otherwise. OAC, can you tell us where you got your information? Is it first hand or hearsay? Because as best as I can tell it's just not accurate.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Glenbee, good luck to your trading and I wish you a prosperous career.

All I have to say is to the newbies here, since this forum has become quite popular among mostly new traders. It has become a fertile ground for for vendors to promote their services. If you have any questions about JPJtrading, feel free to PM me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Amid the bearish charge witnessed in Bitcoin (BTC) on Monday, El Salvador President Nayib Bukele revealed that the country bought the dip. El Salvador’s Bitcoin Law went into effect on September 7, making it the first sovereign nation to adopt the flagship cryptocurrency as legal tender. President Bukele announced via Twitter that his government acquired an additional 150 BTC with the dip. He tweeted that: BTC traded around $45,000 when Bukele made the announcement yesterday. However, the cryptocurrency has since dropped to the lower-$40,000 area, according to data from TradingView. Meanwhile, ATM tracking website Coinatmradar.com recently revealed that the North American nation now has 205 crypto ATM locations, the third-largest by a country (behind the US and Canada). The launch of the Chivo wallet, the country’s official crypto wallet, started with a rocky start. However, Bukele has assured that the Chivo app now operates in optimal capacity. Reports show that the full adoption of the Chivo app could cost remittance providers like Moneygram and Western Union over $400 million per annum. Last Friday, Bukele tweeted that about 1.1 million Salvadorans now use the Chivo wallet, adding that: “we haven’t enabled 65% of phone models yet.” Key Bitcoin Levels to Watch — September 21 BTC has fallen to a new monthly low of $40,140 following the industry-wide crash. The benchmark cryptocurrency now struggles to pick itself up and back to recent highs. Already, Bitcoin is on track to post a red monthly candle for September as it always has since it went mainstream. BTCUSD – 4-Hour Chart That said, we expect a steady rebound above the $44,000 mark and higher over the coming hours. Nonetheless, we could see a retest of the $41,000 mark if bulls fail to reclaim the $44,000 level soon. Meanwhile, our resistance levels are at $44,000, $44,400, and $45,000, and our key support levels are at $43,000, $42,000, and $41,000. Total Market Capitalization: $2.02 trillion Bitcoin Market Capitalization: $816 billion Bitcoin Dominance: 42.4% Market Rank: #1   Source: https://learn2.trade 
    • Ethereum price breaks moving averages resumes downward Ether targets the low of $2,082 Key Highlights Ethereum ETH) Current Statistics The current price: $2,908.05 Market Capitalization: $341,770,388,786 Trading Volume: $28,141,190,537 Major supply zones: $3,000, $3,500, $4,000 Major demand zones: $2,500, $2,000, $1,500 Ethereum (ETH) Price Analysis September 22, 2021 Ethereum’s (ETH) price has fallen below the moving averages suggesting a further downward movement of the crypto. The bears have also broken below the previous low at $3,026 to another low of $2,656. As the biggest altcoin falls below the previous low, further downsides are likely. Meanwhile, on September 7 downtrend; a retraced candle body tested the 50 % Fibonacci retracement level. The retracement indicates that Ether will fall to level 2.0 Fibonacci extension or level $2,082.71. ETH/USD – Daily Chart ETH Technical Indicators Reading The crypto’s price is now below the moving averages which suggest that Ether is in the bearish trend zone. The altcoin is capable of falling in the bearish trend zone. Ether is at level 40 of the Relative Strength index period 14. It indicates that the altcoin is in the downtrend zone and below the centerline 50. The coin is above the 20% range of the daily stochastic. It indicates that the market is in the bullish trend zone. Conclusion Ethereum is likely to further decline as price breaks below the previous low at level $3,026. Nevertheless, the Fibonacci tool has further indicated a downward move to level 2.0 Fibonacci extension. ETH/USD – 4 Hour Chart   Source: https://learn2.trade 
    • Date : 24th September 2021. Market Update – September 24 – Yields Leap higher. Market News   USD (USDIndex 93.10) weakened to Wednesday lows (92.94) post BOE, SNB, Norges Bank, CBRT, weak PMI’s & Claims and Evergrande missing interest payment deadline – AND no comments from the company. US Federal budget – stand-off continues. Yields stormed higher overnight (10yr closed higher at 1.336%) jumped 10bps to 1.434% in Asian trades (highest since March 2020) Equities rallied again over 1%, sentiment rises but Evergrande worries persist (HSBC, UBS & Blackrock – exposed to a total of $875m). Total offshore exposure – $20bln of the $300bln. USA500 +53 (+1.21%) at 4448. USA500.F lower at 4433. Dow +1.48%. NIKE & Costco beat Earnings. Asian mixed – Nikkei +2%, China lower. VIX tumbles again to 20.50 USOil continues to recover breaches $73.00 – GS talk of $85+ if there is a cold winter. Gold dropped to $1737 (31 day low) has recovered to $1755 now. Overnight – NZD trade balance tanked, JPY CPI & Manu & Services PMI all missed, UK Consumer Confidence halved (-13 vs -7). European Open – December 10-yr Bund future down -24 ticks, alongside broad losses in US futures. Norway kicked off rate hikes in Europe, BoE is also inching towards reduced stimulus which together with Fed tapering hints this week seems to have triggered a market shift. Stocks weren’t too spooked by the yields rise, but uncertainty over Evergrande’s USD coupon payments and lingering concern that China’s property boom could implode and the growth engine running out of steam has seen equity markets turning more cautious once again. DAX future currently down -0.1%, FTSE 100 future little changed. FX markets flat – Sterling holds up, JPY weaker – EURUSD at 1.1732 & Cable at 1.3725 USDJPY recovered to 110.50. Today – German IFO, US New Home Sales, FedSpeak Williams, Mester, Clarida, Powell, George, ECB’s Elderson, BoE’s Tenreyro. Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPJPY (+0.22%) 3 day rally from summer low at 149.40 continues after Hawkish BOE. spiked to 151.70 earlier. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram broke 0 line yesterday, RSI 74.50 OB but still rising. H1 ATR 0.150, Daily ATR 0.695. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date : 23rd September 2021. Market Update – September 23 – FOMC talk November Taper.Market News   USD (USDIndex 93.52) rallies following FOMC – Taper possible from November, first rate rises now brought forward into 2022, Evergrande due to pay local bondholders today, shares rise in HK. Yields flattened as 5yr up 30 yr down – (10yr closed higher at 1.336%) trade at 1.329% now. Equities rallied over 1%, sentiment rises but Evergrande worries persist (HSBC, UBS & Blackrock – exposed to a total of $875m). USA500 +41 (+0.95%) at 4395. USA500.F flat at 4396. Dow +1.00%, Nasdaq +1.02%. Nikkei (closed) & China higher. VIX tumbles to 21.62. USOil continues to recover broke $72.00 – inventories in line (-3.5m barrels). GS talk of $85+ if there is a cold winter Gold dropped to $1760 but has recovered to $1764. Overnight – FED Highlights – We now have 9 forecasts of a 2022 rate hike instead of 7, with 9 instead of 11 now expecting no change. From the dots, it’s clear that the large majority of policymakers want to start raising rates in late-2022 & get back to near-normal by 2024. GDP, saw trimmings for the Fed’s 2021 central tendency to 5.8%-6.0% from 6.8%-7.3%, 2021 headline and core PCE chain price central tendency boosts to 4.0%-4.3% and 3.6%-3.8% respectively. 2021 jobless rate central tendency boosts to 4.6%-4.8%. POWELL – “substantial further progress” has been met for inflation, but there is more uncertainty surrounding the maximum employment goal. Powell noted a split among the FOMC whether employment has improved satisfactorily. He thinks it has “all but been met”. Tapering “could end around the middle of next year.”AUD PMI’s stronger than expected but remain very weak (Services only 44.9).European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is down 21 ticks, the 30-year future meanwhile has moved higher with Treasury futures. DAX & FTSE 100 futures are up 0.5% with risk appetite strengthen post-Fed and amid easing concern on Evergrande, at least for now. In FX markets both EUR and pound strengthened against a steady to lower dollar. Investors are likely to remain cautious ahead of the local central bank announcements from BoE, SNB and Norges Bank today. EURUSD at 1.1715 & Cable at 1.3653. USDJPY recovered to 109.86. BoE Preview: Expected to keep policy settings on hold, but minutes will be watched carefully especially with 2 new MPC members – Catherine Mann (Centrist) & Huw Pill (Hawkish). The central bank already signaled a more hawkish outlook on rates at the previous meeting, which to a certain extent pre-empted the jump in inflation and tightness in labour markets that were the key message of last week’s economic reports. However, retail sales numbers were pretty dismal & consumers are facing higher taxes as well as a phased out wage support, with the phasing out of the furlough scheme a key factor for the BoE’s policy decision going forward. On top of this the country is facing an energy crisis that is having unexpected knock on effects also for the food sector. The central scenario at the moment is for the labour market to remain tight & wage growth strong, as companies are increasingly forced to up wage offers to attract staff. Against that background, the first rate hike could come in H1 2022, depending on virus developments & how the energy market gets through the winter.Today – SNB, Norges Bank (rate hike likley), BoE, CBRT & SARB rate decisions, Eurozone, UK & US flash PMIs, US Weekly Claims, Canadian Retail Sales, ECB’s Elderson.Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) CADJPY (+0.38%) 3 days in row! Breaks two day high t 86.00 and rallied to 86.32 now. Faster MA’s aligned higher, MACD signal line and histogram broke 0 line yesterday, RSI 72.96 OB but still rising. H1 ATR 0.150, Daily ATR 0.695.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • I'm gonna pull a crazyCzarina and reply to a long dead post ... One sure thing about trading forums - The great questions never get an answer.  Ask  even the greatest posters a great question... silence, no nothin’, not even crickets.          First a few comments about Elliott Wave Wave Theory is a ‘science’ of socionomics.  Socionomics is about how societal ideas ‘ideally’ or typically unfold -  wave 1 is the early adapters, wave 3 is broad collective acceptance, wave 5 is continuing valuation narratives but with narrowing collective assessment of actual value... with all kinds of ‘ideal’ sub patterns... Socionomics starts with a simple observation: For lots of issues, how people FEEL influences how they will BEHAVE.  (Equally true = How people BEHAVE influences how they will FEEL... but that’s for another topic) Anyways... Elliott Wave theory is an attempt to apply socionomics  to trading   - and  yes analyst75 “theory” is the key word.  Imo, it’s a jump too far.   First, price is not a good metric for socionomics.... especially across decades when currencies are being viciously  'corrupted'.   And practically, socionomics does not transfer over to trading nearly to the degree Ellioticians would like.   It simply does not deliver enough of those ‘ideal’ sub patterns because  crowds of traders’ behaviors and ‘feelings’ about pricing are not sufficient equivalents of broader collective behaviors / socionomic waves... ESPECIALLY as time frames shorten... (ie waves may appear to ‘fractal’ down ... but they really don’t.)   If you’re going to use EW to trade, probably the most important point you can acknowledge is that 5 wave patterns are EXCEPTIONS to normal trading crowd behavior ie  the best thing a 5 wave pattern indicates is that corrective patterns will soon resume.  I’ve described it differently in other posts*  ... but basically, at any given point in time it is possible to reasonably project that ANY freakin wave ‘count’ / pattern will enfold.   It is just as reasonable to project that a nice 5 wave completion will go on to a nice 7 or 11 or 17 or whatever wave count as it is to project that the market will now have a ‘trend’ change.  At the end of any nice 3 wave corrective pattern, either projecting a huge 5 wave pattern unfolding in the other direction or projecting a long flat congestive pattern or another 3 wave correction pattern... or... all are equally reasonable.  Or, a pretty wave 1, 2, and 3 doesn’t not mean a pretty wave 5 will unfold.  Ie it’s just as reasonable to count it over and project that the next sequence will be corrective or a 5 wave impulsive move in the opposite direction. etc etc       ... to get back to the unanswered question - So what do you propose as an alternate? Long ago I read Hurst.  In a short section of his book he mentioned it.  It didn’t sink in.  Then one day it really hit me.  There is no Elliott wave sequence or any other ‘technical’ price pattern that cannot be better explained via ‘summation of cycles’ ...   * fun example can be seen by searching for 'trading chaos by bill williams' thread on t2w ... TL is so special we don't even allow links to other trading forums? ... other snarky EW comments at http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/topic/7555-do-you-use-the-elliott-wave-to-trade/page/2/?tab=comments#comment-146022      
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.